ESPN

Brendan Roberts

  (3:00 PM)

Good afternoon, everyone! Great to be back after a chat swap put Tristan in my slot last week. Let's get to the questions.

Al (Red Bank)

BRob, what are your thoughts on Porcello, Hanson and Nefatali Perez. I'm looking to grab one or two of them at the end of my keeper draft, but I want upside as well as a contribution this year. Help!

Brendan Roberts

  (3:02 PM)

All are decent late-round keeper options, and I'd rank them like this: 1) Hanson; 2) Porcello; Neftali. You might need to grab them a round or two earlier, though, if others have the same idea.

DiVito (Funzone Wisconsin)

Part of my strat this year after getting burned on Kinsler's injury, was to find a 2B eligible guy who does not play much 2B. I play on a site where Mark Derosa is eligible at 2B. According the the Indians website, he is their 3B. How is Derosa's value looking this year? I have a big money league draft on Saturday and want to follow the same strat. (I also will be starting Sandoval at C as part of this strat)

Brendan Roberts

  (3:03 PM)

Sounds great to me. Yes, if DeRosa qualifies at 2B, he immediately becomes a pretty good option, kind of the top of the third tier, right around No. 8 at the position. Check out Pierre Becquey's position eligibility column in our draft kit for a listing of all the guys who might be close. Very helpful.

Cody Philly

B Rob, Would you drop the Duke for someone like Kuroda or Parra? Thanks

Brendan Roberts

  (3:05 PM)

Unfortunately, I would. Not only did I have doubts as to whether last year was for real (although was starting to believe with that big curveball), and his durability, but now he's been hurting all spring. Hate to say I've put him on my "Do Not Draft" list, even in AL leagues. Not a fan of Parra, but I like me the Kuroda. I'd pick him up.

Peanut the Cat (Home)

I'm going to the vet tomorrow, but need this question answered before hand. In my AL only keeper league, I have Chris Getz for $6. Is he worth keeping if he wins the job?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:07 PM)

Hmm, a close one. He'd go probably for right around that, but assuming you aren't loaded in the MI, and as weak as 2B is in the AL, yeah, I'd keep him. ...Your joke reminds me of a Far Side comic I saw once: A dog leans out the window and tells his dog buddy, "My owner says I'm going to the vet to 'tutored'! Sorry, back to the questions.

Larry Feinberg, CT

Any way Randy Johnson gets 180 innings this year?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:07 PM)

Yeah, I think he does, or darned close to it. And not an insane K rate, but good enough. The wins, not sure about, since he doesn't pitch as deep into games. But I see the percentages being good enough for him to justify having, even in mixed leagues.

Jason (Tysons Corner, VA)

Since ESPN.com leagues are fully customizable (were you aware?), I am thinking of scrapping Wins for Quality Starts. What are your thoughts on this?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:09 PM)

I've heard this from a few guys now, and I'm starting to get on board with the thinking. I still like wins better because that's a pitcher's ultimate goal when he pitches, but because a lot of it is beyond his control, QSs is probably a better depiction of the pitcher. Yeah, I say go for it ... and thanks for now making our readers here aware!

Dave (Boston, MA)

If Jordan Zimmerman cracks the Nationals rotation, what are your projections? He's having a big spring.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:10 PM)

Yup, he looks pretty good, but I see bumps in his road. The Nats have a bunch of similarly talented pitchers -- Balester is probably the one I like the best -- and I don't think they'll have a long leash with any of them. A few bad starts, which every pitcher can have, and JZ could be shipped.

Kevin (San Diego)

Longterm who do I want to keep, Daniel Murphy or Jason Kubel?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:11 PM)

I think Kubel has a limited upside because his struggles vs. lefties has already wedged him into a platoon label, like it or not. So what he has been giving is about what we can expect. I have hope for Murphy to someday be better, at least in part because of his strong average. Kid has a nice swing.

Kurt (NYC)

Who will start the season on the hot corner for the redbirds? Freese or Wallace?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:14 PM)

Neither. Freese has been banged up and won't do much, if he even makes the team, and Wallace already has been assigned, I believe. The favorite there is Brian Barden for now, although Joe Mather is making a case. Barden doesn't intrigue me, but Mather does, if he can pick up 3B OK. (As a Cards fan, it scares me to think we could start two infielders out of position to begin the season.)

Jacob, Portland:

Does Erik Bedard bounce back and have a 2007 type season? 2006?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:15 PM)

He won't be dominant again this season, if for no other reason than the M's won't work him hard like the O's had come to do (relatively speaking). But I see a nice bounce-back for Bedard this season, and considering where he's being taken in drafts, he's a steal. He still proved he can get it done last season; it's just his health we're worried about it. If an ache or pain forces him to miss 5 starts, 28 starts of a good K pitcher is still worth it.

Jacob, Portland:

What do you think the projections are for Jose Reyes if he doesn't lead off and bats 3rd?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:17 PM)

Well, the latest rumor I'm hearing is that Reyes will be moved back to leadoff within the next week. Don't quote me on that; it's still just a rumor. So I doubt this applies. If he does bat 3rd, I think a few more RBIs and runs (yes, more 2-out runs), but a couple fewer steals. All in all, value remains about the same.

Kevin (New York)

Would you drop Freddy Sanchez for Jed Lowrie? and why?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:18 PM)

Yes, I would. Lowrie lacks power and speed -- but so does Sanchez. And you no longer can count on a .300-plus average from him either. Basically, Lowrie is already a Sanchez-level player now that he's sure to start the season at SS (with Lugo out), but he could be better and has a better lineup.

Pelc, NYC

Would you keep Ellsbury or Furcal if you had to chose between the two??

Brendan Roberts

  (3:19 PM)

A tough one, but I really like Ellsbury and just am not trussin' it with Furcal. I think his back (or something) could sideline him again, and if it doesn't, the Dodgers will have to be careful that it doesn't by sitting him more.

Don (NJ)

Whats up with Lindstrom? Ceda worth picking up?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:22 PM)

Everyone is discussing Ceda as the guy to pick up, and he definitely has the most upside. But he's barely thrown this spring because of a shoulder problem, and is likely to start the season on the DL. By the time he would return, Lindstrom would likely be back (unless he has a major setback). Leo Nunez seems to be the guy now, but I wouldn't touch him outisde of deep or NL-only leagues.

Bill (Nebraska)

What's your take on Elvis Andrus this season?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:24 PM)

Well, I somehow don't end up with him on any of my teams. The Rangers say they're ready to start him, but I'm not convinced they'll stick with him considering he has options, he's not a strong hitter, and hitters as young as he is tend to be streaky, at best. I think he ends up back in the minors, honestly, with either Vizquel (who I think the Rangers will give a fair shake to) or Arias (who's tearing it up in ST) getting starts at SS.

Kevin (NY)

Hey Brendan, what do you think of Kelly Shoppach? How much playing time do you see him getting, and best guess for his numbers with that opportunity?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:26 PM)

Good question. If Travis Hafner were tearing it up, I would be worried, but he's not, so I think Shoppach gets plenty of playing time and posts almost as good a numbers as last season. The team is better with him behind the plate, and even a few cut-down at-bats doesn't hurt because all catchers sit games. I still like him.

Dave (Mason, OH)

Follow up to the Andrus question - any chance that Michael Young goes back to SS?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:27 PM)

Nah, I don't see it happening, not after the drama they've been through. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if he got spot starts there if someone is D2D or something. Maybe 10 starts.

Ted (NJ)

who starts in texas Teagarden or Salty? I own Teagarden and am wondering if I should drop him for someone who will get more AB?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:29 PM)

It's still TBD, really, and with catchers, it really doesn't need "to be determined" since two guys usually rotate anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if early in the season Washington starts locking them in based on lefties or righties pitching against them, or slotting them with certain pitchers. Either way, I think Teagarden gets way more ABs out of that slot, so I think you're OK.

Aaron (Auburn, Alabama)

What do you think of Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge

Brendan Roberts

  (3:31 PM)

The Nats are our 30Q team today, coincidentally. I like Milledge. He's young, finished with better-than-you-realized numbers last season, and does have multi-category production. Definitely a mid/late-round sleeper target. I like Dukes, too, but I think he hits for a low average, and he has a knack for leg injuries, it seems. I'm not sold he can play everyday and remain consistent. Very early-years Milton Bradley-ish to me (in a couple ways). I'm reserving him for NL leagues.

Mark, NY

You mentioned the Cards might have two outfielders in their infield. Should we drop their pitchers a buck or two?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:33 PM)

Hmm, that's a good point, Mark, and probably something that often gets overlooked. I probably wouldn't drop them much since the guys they replace (Glaus, Kennedy) weren't exactly Gold Glovers, and they should be able to get the balls hit to them or they wouldn't be there. But I also wouldn't overpay either, if that makes sense. It helps there that the team doesn't really have any extreme sinkerballers.

Duckett (Lexington)

Positive reports on Cole Hamels in Phili, but in Fantasy Land has how far has he fallen? No longer a dependable Ace?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:35 PM)

Unfortunately, to get him you'll have to consider him a "dependable ace," or No. 1 fantasy pitcher. So far this arm injury is nothing, but he did have a few problems a few years ago, and this does dredge up some memories. I don't drop him in my SP rankings but maybe a spot or two, but I also am sure not to reach for him in Round 2 or 3, as I have a few times early on here.

Ben (SF)

We all know when Chipper is healthy he puts up great numbers that are very helpful in roto formats. But how far, if at all, would you drop him in H2H rankings becuase of the missed time?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:37 PM)

Chipper said he's had this injury "many times" before, and that it goes away. Some would take that as good news, in that it's nothing new, but I use it as a reminder of just how banged up this guy tends to be. Sure, great player, but he's held together by rubber bands and paper clips, as they say. So I guess what I'm saying is never really was high up on my list. This injury doesn't affect him much, though, because his position is deep enough that you can easily replace him. As long as he keeps hitting when he's healthy, which he has been, he maintains his upper-tier value.

don (sf)

I see Gammons is discussing a bounceback year for Sheffield for the Tigers.Can he hit 28HRs and 100RBIS?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:38 PM)

Oh boy. Gammons is a Sheffield fan, as I've noticed over the years, and, if you speak the truth, that seems too high. But I'm one of the few on our staff who actually thinks Sheff can still hit. Can he stay healthy all the time? No. Can he hit .300? No. But I could easily see a .270-22-80 season coming from him, which is a lot better than people are buying him for. Unfortunately, he's also just a DH.

Joe (Brooklyn)

Hi BRob- how about some deep league love??? i'm playing in a 15-team mixed 6x6 roto league (OPS and K/BB). each team has 26 roster spots (22 active) plus DL. how does your strategy change going into a draft of that size? do you take pitchers/closers a little bit earlier than normal? how big does position scarcity become? thanks for the help.

Brendan Roberts

  (3:41 PM)

Good questions, Joe. You pretty much nailed it. Position scarcity does become a lot more important because the dropoff from the top guys to the bottom are much greater in this setup, so I do shoot for scarce positions if I can do so in the early rounds. Also, I've done a few mocks in this setup and have noticed that the SPs toward the end of these drafts is all about the same, and actually a little better than you might realize. So I try to get all my hitter spots filled before I finish up SPs. Maybe that's just me.

Dan (Vermont)

I took a break from hanging sap buckets on the maple trees, and what do I get? Gloom and doom about Elvis? O well--it's good that you give it to us straight. So, how about a few cheap yet useful SS options in an AL only league that I might target in my upcoming auction (I have Elvis as a Rookie, so I can plug him in when/if he pieces it all together)? There's a pint of VT maple syrup in it for you if you answer this one.....! Either way, thanks for chatting!

Brendan Roberts

  (3:44 PM)

Mmmm, syrup. Brendan likey. Yup, sorry about Elvis; that's truly how I feel. And unfortunately, there aren't a whole lot of sleeper options at SS. In fact, it gets dry quick, and suddenly you're looking at Jack Wilson. But a few at a similar level that I like is Lowrie, of course, Aviles, Bartlett, Khalil Greene, and thinking deeper, Jeff Keppinger or Alex Gonzalez (depending on A-Gonz's health). Sorry, man, that's all I can do ... probably not enough to deserve the syrup, huh?

Stan (Memphis)

So you like Balester over Lannan?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:45 PM)

Long-term I do, but not for this season. Balester still has plenty of learning to do. Lannan just allows too many balls to be put into play for my liking.

Eddie Money (Los Angeles)

How many at bats do you see Ian Stewart getting this year in Colorado?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:48 PM)

We have Stewart projected with 388 at-bats and 16 homers. Both of those seem a little light to me. In other words, I like him. Given the lack of pop or contact they have at a number of other positions, I think they get Stewart into their lineup often. This hasn't quite come to play out, obviously (though he's still young), but having seen Stewart play several times a few years ago, I felt like his swing was as good as about any prospect I saw in the past 10 years. Honestly, I felt that. We'll see if I'm right, but I still believe in him and consider him a nice sleeper this season.

Tom (Philly)

My catchers situation right now is Y. Molina and Wieters. Should I drop Molina for Salty?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:50 PM)

Ah, the good ol' catchers. Molina is uninteresting and does tend to start slowly, but I'd make Salty earn his way on to your roster. There's no indication he could do any better, and considering Molina CAN hit for a decent average, Salty might actually hurt your aggregate totals more.

Ben (SF)

Your rankings...Markakis or Kemp?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:50 PM)

Definitely Markakis. Love the guy, he's only 25, does about everything well ... and dare I say I like some things about the O's offense this year.

Marc, Charlotte, NC

Do you see Soriano running much this year? For an deep NL only league would you rather have Berkman or Soriano?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:52 PM)

I see him running a lot, yes. Piniella has stated his intention to have him do so, and he reportedly is in great shape in camp. Berkman is one of my faves, and this is like pick-to-pick close, but I really like Alfie, and if push came to shove, he's my guy.

Jay Cutler supporter (Denver)

Does Eric Young Jr break into the majors in 2009?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:53 PM)

I don't think so, at least not before late-season call-ups (does any team actually call up studs on Sept. 1 anymore? .... seems like it's always a week or two earlier).

Mark, NY

What do you think of K. Greene? He seems to be doing ok for the Cards so far this spring. Can he get back to '07 levels?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:54 PM)

Yes, I think I can. I'm not a homer, by any means, but these are the types of players that seem to miraculously play their best for the Cardinals. Guys with decent talent, but thus far untapped. I'm thinking like Womack years back, or Abraham Nunez (the IF), or Aaron Miles last year, or Ludwick. Something tells me Greene could hit 20 homers this season, although he probably won't hit above .270-.275.

Dave - Denver

Thoughts on Motte - Does he win the closing gig in St. Louis or sent down?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:56 PM)

Oh, Dave, I just can't read this one. I'm following it closely. Motte is pitching the best, but Perez was considered the fave, so it's neck and neck (ignore all the talk of Franklin and other guys getting a chance ... those were just ploys, in my mind). It'll be one of the two, and were I to guess, I'd still have to say Perez gets first shot, but with a short leash.

Hank (Charlotte)

B-Rob, give me the 411 on Brandon Wood. Does he make an impact this season? Are we talking, possibly, .285, 30 HR, 95 ribbies?

Brendan Roberts

  (3:57 PM)

Well, the .285 right away seems out of place. Wood just makes too little contact, and any adjustment he makes to correct that will drop his power output. No way he even gets enough PT to get close to those numbers, although I wouldn't be surprised if he's kept up as a utility infielder and gets 250 ABs. But still, a .260 average, probably, and double-digit homers. Nothing impressive.

Bob (DC)

Thoughts on Matt Cain. Will he ever put it all together.

Brendan Roberts

  (4:00 PM)

Just a couple more, guys (and there are a TON of good ones to choose). ... Cain reportedly has looked good to scouts this spring, but he's looked awful to stat-keepers. Yikes, he's getting pounded. But I'm going with the scouting perspective a bit here and predicting he does a little better than last season thanks to Unit taking some pressure off. Maybe the G-men can save him more from start to start to keep him from wearing down. Still, I don't see a good WHIP or lots of wins, just good K's and decent ERA.

Kyle (Wisconsin)

Would Jair Jurrjens be a good pick up?

Brendan Roberts

  (4:01 PM)

I like Jurrjens, in part because I know the Braves really like Jurrjens, and I believe in their scouting dept. I think he makes for a nice No. 3/4 fantasy pitcher you can get in the late rounds. One more.

Ari (Miami)

What round are you taking A-Rod in standard 10 team? Thanks

Brendan Roberts

  (4:03 PM)

Aha! I never got to offer my opinion on A-Rod last week! This'll work. Hey, he's already progressing quicker than expected, from what I hear, and has proven to be a fast healer. Plus, his position is so deep that the drop isn't as severe as it'd be at another position, and then the production he can give you for, say, 20-plus weeks can be elite. I'd take him no lower than maybe the late-middle of the 3rd round in a 10-team league.

Roger

I understand the don't pay for saves thing for roto leagues. But with the "safe" closers being such a short list, wouldn't they be more valuable in a H2h league where you can have those guys and just stream in different starters throughout a week?

Brendan Roberts

  (4:04 PM)

Whoop, one more quick one ... I'm not on board with the ESPN philosophy on that either ... I'll be sure to hit on this more in my chat next week (although I have plenty in past chats).

Brendan Roberts

  (4:04 PM)

All righty, thanks to you for stopping by, and have a good rest of your afternoon. Catch ya next week!