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Eric Karabell

  (3:01 PM)

Hello all and welcome to the latest fantasy sports chat session. Did you see that WBC game last night with the USA winning? Good baseball, and a good result. Let's get going here, talking fantasy baseball ... any questions?

Patrick (ar) [via mobile]

I need some help with keepers. Got to keep 4. Who should I keep between soto and David ortiz? My other keepers are markakis, sizemore, and hanley. Thanks

Eric Karabell

  (3:02 PM)

And we begin with a question via mobile... I'd keep Soto. I see Ortiz slipping in drafts and I'm not too keen on jumping in and selecting him myself. Soto shouldn't go in the top 50, like Ortiz is, but he's younger, healthier, certainly much better in relation for the eligible position he plays.

Todd (Ithacam NY)

Hey Eric--Someone just dropped Loney and he cleared . . . I gotta pick him up, right? Even if I am already set at 1B w/ LaRoche and Giambi? Was gonna drop Jose Guillen to do this.

Eric Karabell

  (3:03 PM)

I would prefer to own Loney over Guillen, yes, but I wouldn't get too worked up about getting the Dodgers first baseman. No power. Could hit .310 I suppose, but 15 homers, whoopee. Guillen will hit more, but can drain the batting average. I submit Loney has upside, but I don't see it coming anytime soon...

Mike (Indy)

Any word on Mauer's injury? Is it anything to be worried about? Thanks!

Eric Karabell

  (3:04 PM)

Haven't seen anything this week about it. The Twins will be cautious, and it's possible Mauer doesn't play the first week of the season, maybe more, but if you like Mauer you shouldn't jump ship due to this. I think he's always drafted too high, but this shouldn't be the reason he drops.

Dave (Chicago)

Are you buying 3B Andy LaRoche's big spring? I know spring training generally means nothing, but this guy was a touted prospect.

Eric Karabell

  (3:06 PM)

Totally buying, but to a degree. My expectations for him have been lowered but I still think he's going to hit for power and take walks. He's not a 4-A player; he just hasn't hit at this level yet, but now the Buccos will play him every day and things should improve. In a standard 10-team league I wouldn't draft him, but in deeper formats, especially if you count on-base percentage, yes.

Brent Babcock, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle, Jordan Zimmerman, if ya had to pick two, which one would be dropped?

Eric Karabell

  (3:08 PM)

Buehrle makes it, but then it's a tough call. I think Zimmerman makes the Washington rotation and will be good enough for NL-only leagues, but we can't overrate an unproven (at this level) youngster. I'd still go Floyd in a shallow league, but I don't see him having that kind of year again.

Ben (Cedar Falls, IA)

Boom or bust this year: Josh Beckett, Nate McLouth, Matt Wieters

Eric Karabell

  (3:10 PM)

Beckett doesn't scare me much. Tends to miss some starts, but is more durable than most people realize. McLouth is on my list for players taking a step back, but I won't call him a bust. I'm all aboard the Wieters bandwagon. Top-5 catcher. No, really.

Tony, East Hanover

Erik, O'closer king. What do you think of the motte/perez and qualls/rauch situations. If you were a betting man, which of each pair winds up with the most saves by END of the season

Eric Karabell

  (3:11 PM)

I do fancy the savers, don't I... I think in Arizona it's unquestionable Chad Qualls. He'll do a good job and earn 30 saves. In St. Louis, I don't think it's going to be Motte or Perez to start the year. I think LaRussa plays it safe with Ryan Franklin and sees who emerges. Might very well be Josh Kinney, by the way. Perez should end up with the most saves, but not so sure he starts the season closing.

Cole (Philly, PA)

Does my keeper stock drop or am I still a top 30 pick in keeper leagues?

Eric Karabell

  (3:12 PM)

Wouldn't change a thing on Cole Hamels, people. Not a thing. Even if his first start is April 10, or 20, don't worry. You never assume 35 starts with a pitcher anyway. Hamels can make 32 and still be a top-10 starting pitcher.

Mike (NY)

are you high on Carl Crawford this year?...would you trade him for Ryan Howard?

Eric Karabell

  (3:13 PM)

I'll take Ryan Howard because I'm more certain he will reach expectations. And his expectations are higher. I see Howard having the most HR and RBIs again, and even if he does hit .250, so what. Still a monster, early second rounder for me. On Crawford, one of the most overrated players annually, look at his numbers and Shane Victorino's, for example. Big difference? Um, no, and one of these guys goes like 50 picks earlier. Crawford won't be hitting 20 homers. The steals are nice, but if it's "only" 40, I'm not buying.

Mike (New York)

Is Fontenot a viable fantasy option now that he looks like he will be the everyday second baseman? What type of year do you project out of him?

Eric Karabell

  (3:15 PM)

I do think he is a viable option for batting average and probably double digit homers. I'd like to see if he bats second, then I'll really get on board. He's so much better, potentially, than Aaron Miles. We just haven't seen Fontenot get 500 at-bats, so it's impossible to know if he can handle them and hit .300.

Andrew (Toronto)

What are your pre-season feelings on the Rookie of the Year? I think Travis Snider has a great shot at walking away with the AL... You?

Eric Karabell

  (3:16 PM)

I think Wieters is going to win it, even if he plays only five months, but I do like Snider for a 20-75 season. The Jays should definitely play him regularly. I like Lind a bit more, but he's not a rook.

Kevin (Waukee, IA)

Rich Harden or Aaron Harang?

Eric Karabell

  (3:17 PM)

I'm not a Harden fan one bit. Even with Harang getting lit yesterday, I have no concerns. On Harden, if he makes 20 starts, they will be good ones, but consider yourself lucky if he's even that healthy.

Mike (New York)

I read that Fontenot would probably hit 6th. Doesn't that make it realistic that he could have 85+RBIs in that lineup?

Eric Karabell

  (3:18 PM)

I never believe a word Lou Piniella says because he changes his mind all the time and likes to mess with reporters. Yes, Fontenot could hit sixth, and if his power is legit, he'd certainly help out the right-handed heavy middle of the order. And he'd knock in runs.

Di-(West Lafayette IN)

Hey Karabell, you doubted that Raul Ibanez would not get his 100 rbi behind Ryan Howard, but Pat Burrel have been driven in 90 runs behind ryan howard with a .250 average for years, why do you thinkg Raul(a .290 hitter) can't drive in 10 more runs?

Eric Karabell

  (3:20 PM)

I don't think assuming a 40-point difference in batting average means much for RBIs. I think Ibanez will be less streaky than Burrell, which works both for and against this argument. Howard knocks in a lot of runs. The other potential argument against Ibanez is Charlie Manuel could opt to split the lefties and hit Jayson Werth fifth. Wouldn't shock me. But 100 RBIs for Ibanez, I think I expect around that.

Ryan (Williamstone, CT)

where do you rank Mike Aviles?

Eric Karabell

  (3:22 PM)

Seems to me to be the player who was so overrated in early drafts that now he's underrated. You scare people off when you say someone will drop 50 points in batting average, but that still means he hits .275. I could see high teens in power, too. Borderline top-10 shortstop right now with upside.

Rick (A Cubicle)

Am I crazy to take Carlos Pena's HR and RBI over Curtis Granderson, and hope to get an Adam Jones, Jayson Werth, Adam Lind type later instead of Grandy? I am pretty good on steals/runs already

Eric Karabell

  (3:22 PM)

You can never have enough. Granderson, to me, is just a better fantasy option than Pena. You can always deal the excess. But no, you're not crazy. Pena should hit 30-plus homers. Granderson will not.

Todd (Philly)

Say you would know Tommy Hanson breaks with the bigs opening day - is he in your top 25 pitchers or are you more cautious than that?

Eric Karabell

  (3:24 PM)

I don't think he breaks onto the Opening Day roster. I think even he knows that. But even if he did, no, he would not be in my top 25 SPs. I think he emerges, and has a bright future, but to use that early of a pick on an unproven fella, no matter the upside, it wouldn't be me.

Adam (Mitchell, SD)

Why is A. Soriano's value falling so much? I'm in a 14 team keeper league and I can't get any kind of trade interest in him at all. What's up?

Eric Karabell

  (3:25 PM)

I can't speak to why others in your league are worried, but I'm not. I don't think it's a lock he ever swipes 25 or more bases again, but he's still a very good fantasy option, top-20 player. Just keep him.

Kevin (Waukee, IA)

Any players you have a unexplainable bad feeling about for this year?

Eric Karabell

  (3:26 PM)

I'm getting concerned about the league I have Joe Mauer as a keeper. I guess we can explain it, but I have a bad feeling he's hurt all year. Also for some reason I have a bad feeling about Joba, and now Morrow, who I've compared to one another in the past.

Rob (Dallas)

Any players you have a unexplainable GOOD feeling about for this year?

Eric Karabell

  (3:27 PM)

Many more, I assure you! Sandoval I like more than most. Granderson. Votto. Wieters of course.

Brian NY

All I hear is Doom and Gloom about Ervin Santana- is this based on anything tangible? Any chance he really does come back in April and have a solid season? I have him in a 12 team 10 keeper league and would hate to let him go.

Eric Karabell

  (3:29 PM)

Sure, he could be just fine, but I find that pitchers with arm problems in the spring generally keep the problem unless they get a lengthy delay or surgery. This isn't like Cole Hamels. Santana has something wrong with his elbow, something more concrete, and nobody knows when he will throw. When there's smoke there is often fire. I would just be very cautious here.

Tom (NY)

What round do you think is a good round to grab Pablo Sandoval if he has catcher's eligibility?

Eric Karabell

  (3:30 PM)

I never project a round after the first few. It always depends on the stats you use, number of teams, depth, eligibility, etc. But I think Sandoval is clearly a top-10 catcher if eligible. He's going to knock in a lot of runs if the Giants hit him third, which they apparently will.

Dude (Dublin)

Is Marmol going to close?

Eric Karabell

  (3:31 PM)

I think it's more like 60-40 Kevin Gregg will win the job. Reading Piniella is impossible, but Gregg has the experience, and a better spring. There is no rule that a manager has to use his best reliever in the ninth inning. Many do not.

Tim (East Hartford)

No surprise, but Ray outpitched Sherrill again today. How long before you think he's full-time closer in Baltimore?

Eric Karabell

  (3:32 PM)

Same thing. No rule on who should close. In this case I think Sherrill starts as closer, has a tough April and then Chris Ray takes over if healthy and keeping his command.

Bart (Chesterton, IN)

Still going with 90 wins for Cleveland?What do I need to know about that rotation?

Eric Karabell

  (3:33 PM)

I think 90 might be a bit much, but Lee is capable of winning in the high teens, Carmona could easily bounce back, and I think Pavano and Reyes can win in double digits. It's a nice bullpen, too. But a lot of things need to go right for the Indians to win 90.

Tyler PA

Would you depend on Arod to be back to normal when he returns in may or would you trade him now for David Wright in a 12 team keeper league?

Eric Karabell

  (3:34 PM)

Yes and yes. I think he comes back strong, but it's not like Wright was such a step down from A-Rod in the first place. Absolutely take Wright for him if you can.

Greg (Atlanta)

EK: Best overall pitching staff, NL/AL. Who are you buyin'? Thanks pal.

Eric Karabell

  (3:35 PM)

Red Sox, Rays, Cubs and possibly Giants jump out at me.

Jeff (CA)

Which SP would be a fair trade for Utley....Lincecum, CC or Webb?

Eric Karabell

  (3:35 PM)

Probably any of them, depending on what the Utley owner is thinking. Me, I would draft Utley first among this group in a standard league.

Allen (Asheville NC)

Have McCann. Who would you take as 2nd C? Salty, Clement, Iannatta, A.J. or Napoli

Eric Karabell

  (3:36 PM)

Iannetta definitely. Then Napoli. I'm not really buying on Clement, by the way.

Stacy (NYC)

During Matthew Berry's record chat, he made it seem he had inside info on Harden. He seemed to think he wouldn't make 20 starts, but could not disclose his source. Do you have any info?

Eric Karabell

  (3:37 PM)

No, I do not have inside info, but I think most people believe Harden is such a huge injury risk that 20 starts would be a stretch.

True Marlins Fan

thoughts on Maybin this year? He has had a good ST.

Eric Karabell

  (3:38 PM)

Have him in a keeper league and expect he'll play every day, hit at least .270 and go for double digit power and steal 25 bases. In other words, I am totally on board.

Kyle (Philly)

You dont sound worried about Hamels. Would you keep him over someone like Holiday? My other 2 keepers are Pujols and Cabrera. I should also mention that I am diehard Phillies. Hard to let go of the guy that brought us our first championship since I was 10 (35 now).

Eric Karabell

  (3:39 PM)

I would have kept Holliday over Hamels on Nov. 1, the day after the parade, and March 1, before the elbow problem surfaced. I love the Phillies, but none of my fantasy decisions are ever affected by that. Holliday is a better keeper.

Bart (Toronto, ON)

You don't think the Twins staff is better than the Rays (including bullpen)?

Eric Karabell

  (3:40 PM)

Who do you trust in the Minny bullpen after Joe Nathan? Guerrier? Mijares and his bad spring? I like the rotation a lot, though.

Bart (Chesterton,IN)

How far are you dropping Lindstrom?Can Carpenter get 25 starts? How much is he climbing?

Eric Karabell

  (3:42 PM)

Haven't dropped Lindstrom much yet, but I was concerned about him before the WBC and the shoulder problem. That 1.45 WHIP does not match the 3.14 ERA at all, and the WHIP is more likely the real thing. But there remains 3 weeks before Opening Day, Lindstrom might remain the closer. For Carpenter, I still take the under, as the Cardinals should be cautious with him, and I expect a DL stint at some point just to keep him strong.

Chad (757, VA) [via mobile]

EK, first off it's time to give up on Harang, the weight loss is just to help avoid the line drives that will be coming his way all season. How do you feel about Rafael Perez in the holds department this year, is he a better option than Putz?

Eric Karabell

  (3:44 PM)

Ha! Harang is only two seasons from a 216-K campaign, isn't he? I'm sticking with him for another year. His WHIP was not that bad for most of last season, and he did close strong. What he weighs is irrelevant. CC Sabathia isn't svelte. On Raffy Perez, I could see him holding 25 games, absolutely. I think Jensen Lewis might be the eighth inning guy, but Perez will get chances, too. Better than Putz? For cumulative holds, I say no.

Nick (NYC)

Who do you like better this year at SS Tejada or Aviles? Slight bounce back from Miggy T?

Eric Karabell

  (3:44 PM)

No, I would take Aviles. There is no reason to expect Tejada to bounce back. None. He's lost the power, and is older than we thought. Aviles will hit more home runs.

Josh (Chatt, TN)

Name Game; Derrek Lee or Adrian Gonzalez?

Eric Karabell

  (3:45 PM)

Adrian. I have no worries about taking a step back. Lee doesn't have the same power. He'll hit doubles, but only 20 homers. And it's not like he runs anymore.

Kyle (Philly)

I would have kept Holliday on Nov. 1 since he was still with Colorado. Now I am scared to death of the Oakland effect. Are you in the not concerned camp?

Eric Karabell

  (3:47 PM)

I should have made that clear. Even the day after Holliday got dealt, I still keep him over Hamels. Holliday is not going to fall back that much in Oakland. He still was a good hitter on the road, and it will be easier for him to improve that now that he doesn't have to play half his games in Coors. I know that might not make sense, but he doesn't have to make the same adjustments for half his games, and he is a good hitter overall. I have few concerns. He's not a top-10 guy, but top 25.

Toby (Wis)

Thanks for the input! I'm in a league that useds OBP instead of Avg... how much does this help Ryan Howard?

Eric Karabell

  (3:48 PM)

Makes him a top-10 guy with ease. Maybe top-5 after Hanley, Pujols and the left side of the Mets infield.

Greg (Atlanta)

EK: No question, just an enthusiastic comment to share: WBC USA! Cool stuff last night! Thanks pal.

Eric Karabell

  (3:49 PM)

I really enjoyed it as well, like edge-of-my-seat excitement over it. I made that clear in the Baseball Today podcast I host daily, that the WBC mattered to me. It's good baseball. You can check out the podcast at podcenter off the ESPNRadio.com page...

Kevin(Boise)

Now that Jed Lowrie is starting at SS in Boston, is he worth a roster spot in a 10 team league?

Eric Karabell

  (3:50 PM)

I don't think he's there quite yet, because I don't think he has much power or speed, but I see him hitting a lot of doubles, like 40 of them possibly, and hitting for average. He'll get better.

andy md

Who should be my last keeper? Granderson (costing a 12th round pick), Prince (costing a 4th round pick), or Doumit (costing a 15th round pick)? Thanks

Eric Karabell

  (3:51 PM)

I would go Granderson there. Even if he doesn't steal 20, he'll score a ton of runs, hit for some power. I am not a Fielder fan, especially not if you lose a fourth rounder.

Dave - MA

The WBC matters, to die hard fans and the players. I love it. But being that it is pre-season, and they are playing with post season intensity, is this the reason for the injuries?

Eric Karabell

  (3:52 PM)

I don't think so. Players get hurt all the time in spring training and nobody tries to abolish that. I mean, Cole Hamels has a sore elbow. Do we blame the Florida weather? It happens. Lindstrom might have had a sore shoulder last season for all we know.

Jamie

What's your thoughts on Pedro Alvarez? Is he the next Longoria or Andy LaRoche?

Eric Karabell

  (3:53 PM)

I think it's Longoria, but in 2011. Legit power, can handle the strike zone, just needs to be motivated. And I think LaRoche is an aberration, too. Has to get better.

Jeff (NYC)

Who will be 2009 NL Rookie of the Year?

Eric Karabell

  (3:54 PM)

I say Cam Maybin. But I bet Tommy Hanson is in the race.

Jason (Atlanta)

Better keeper, Tommy Hanson or Rick Porcello?

Eric Karabell

  (3:55 PM)

I would be shocked if Porcello makes the Tigers. He's 20! Have to say Hanson for now.

Scot (TX)

Seattle closer - now we're hearing Aardsma might have a shot, but I notice he's not even mention in your bullpen roundup in the ESPN Draft Kit. Does Aardsma have a shot to start the year with the job?

Eric Karabell

  (3:55 PM)

About five guys have a shot. Really. Maybe even Heathcliff Slocumb is in the picture. I still think Lowe and Batista are the leaders.

Jamie: Canada

Are you concerned about Rasmus's slow spring?

Eric Karabell

  (3:56 PM)

Yes. Looks like he won't make the team. Again. But I will not call him the next Andy LaRoche yet. He has time.

John (NY)

Eric please look into your crystal ball and tell me who has more IP this year, Bedard or Big Unit?

Eric Karabell

  (3:56 PM)

Unit. Around 160 or so. Sorry, Mariners fans. Your pain in the butt is brittle.

Sam (IN)

Who is winning your bracket EK?

Eric Karabell

  (3:58 PM)

I think Memphis has something to prove... and Louisville is pretty darn good, too.

Justin (Boston )

Any chance Alvarez will get a september call up?

Eric Karabell

  (3:58 PM)

Sure, there is a chance. But I expect Andy LaRoche to play well all season, too.

Jeremy (Waterville)

How much do you discount Howard in an H2H league due to inconsistency?

Eric Karabell

  (3:59 PM)

Not at all. You enjoy the good times, too, and remember, he's always good in September, when it really counts.

Jake (LA)

Is Brandon Wood a legit bench player this season? Scioscia has to play him sooner or later...has to. Right?

Eric Karabell

  (3:59 PM)

Should play him, but doesn't have to. I think Figgins will move around a lot, and Wood will play third base.

Mike (New York)

I've been taking a lot of heat for overdrafting Jayson Werth... Please tell me he'll back up my confidence I've shown in him... 25/25???

Eric Karabell

  (4:00 PM)

No, I take the under on both of those numbers...and starting to worry about his health.

Jared (SC)

Who would be on your H2H dynasty team? Votto, Price, or Maybin?

Eric Karabell

  (4:00 PM)

Votto.

Eric Karabell

  (4:01 PM)

OK, my time is apparently up, so thanks for the many questions and have a great day. Two-plus weeks until the games actually count... are you ready?