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Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:02 AM)

Good morning everyone! Let's get right to your questions on this fine day for sports...

Jim (Toronto, Ontario)

Do you trust Oliver Perez?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

No.Simple as that. "Trust"? No. But my overall feel on Perez is, and has always been, that he's the kind of guy I want only when no one is expecting anything from him. Like before that one big year he had back a half-decade ago. Rich Hill is kind of to 2009 what Perez was to that year, a guy you never heard of who might have a good year out of nowhere.

Nick (NYC)

What do you expect from Choo in Cleveland this year? Will he be an everyday player?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Well, he's on my sleeper list, so that means I'm optimistic. Looking at those corner outfield spots in Cleveland, I can't help but think he bats 500 times, and with the numbers he had in the minors and in his brief big-league career so far, I call him a nice sleeper. Good AL-only outfielder for sure.

Fernando (Pembroke Pines)

THC, do you have any info on Ben Sheet progress and if he'll have any value this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:05 AM)

Last I had on Mr. Sheets was that he was rehabbing with the Rangers' medical staff, and that the best-case scenario for a return is shortly after the All-Star break. If I'm projecting him for draft day, I'm thinking Aug. 1-15, about 10 starts and as such I'm probably not drafting him except in deeeeeeeep leagues.

zac (chicago)

I noticed Zimmermann is in place as the nationals fifth starter on the depth chart this week. What kind of year could he have?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

He might actually be the fourth starter at his current pace, and he'll be up there among Rookie of the Year candidates. I don't generally trust rookie pitchers, especially not on losing teams, but I think you have to treat Jordan Zimmermann (note the extra "N," to avoid that whole back-of-the-jersey confusion with Ryan Zimmerman) like you might have Johnny Cueto a year ago this time. Means a sleeper, especially in NL-only.

Scott (Binghamton NY)

I've heard pundit's say 3rd base is shallow and it's deep? Which is your take? 6th round. Both chipper and Chris Davis are sitting there. which do you take and why?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

I think it depends on the league. AL, deep enough. NL, I think it's top-heavy and then there's a big drop in talent tiers. Overall, I'd probably lean a little more towards thinner than I'm used to this decade. As for your specific guys, I'd go Chris Davis, and part of that is because of Chipper's injuries this spring, and the rest is that if the two are somewhat comparable in fantasy value, I want the younger guy with the higher ceiling.

Chris (Toronto, ON)

Got the name of any sneaky auction pickups (going for around $3-6) with high K potential?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

That price means very different things depending on league depth, but my bargain K guys list includes Johnny Cueto, Manny Parra and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Bret (Brooklyn)

Do you like Aviles at SS over Tejada? Is Miggy T done?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

Yes, barely, and no, not "done," but in terms of being anything more than your average fantasy starter, yes, that's in his past.

Chaz (WV)

Who would be the best platoon to have at 3B with Alex Gordon? Josh Fields, Andy LaRoche or Brandon Wood? Thanks for the help

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:12 AM)

I'd actually take a shot on LaRoche accounting for his lights-out spring performance so far. Good way of making that fairly close call.

Bart (Toronto, ON)

THC, Karabell said yesterday that the Unit gets more innings than Bedard? Comment? Projections for Bedard?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

That would not shock me in the slightest, and in fact, I actually think Randy Johnson isn't getting a fair enough shake in fantasy drafts right now. I like that situation for a guy at his age. It's pretty good for him. As for Bedard, I wouldn't expect more than 21-23 starts, in which I've got him around a 3.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and about a K per frame.

Steve (Denver)

What are your thoughts on Atkins this season? Over/Under .285 85 25 100

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:14 AM)

Such a loaded question, because to me, it's an easy "over" if he's a Rockie all season, and an easy "under" if he's traded midseason. I'm leaning towards over, and feel confident enough in that. But you're really not far off in your projections, I'll say that.

Nick (NYC)

Got any SS sleepers? What about late round steal guys?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

I like Elvis Andrus only from the aspect that he can steal 25-plus bases easy just on his raw speed, plus that ballpark and lineup will help him. Yunel Escobar doesn't seem to get a fair shake either. And I'd be OK with Manny Burriss from that steals angle, too.

Todd (Chicago)

Is Jesus Guzman for real in a mixed 12 person league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

No. But I like the thought. Nice spring! And I bet he sees some time, so deeeeeeep NL-only league owners need to familiarize themselves with the name.

Morris O Brian (Washington, DC)

HELP! Chloe threw me out of the house because of what I did to Jack and only you can get me back in. I need to get your ranking of Miggy Cabrera, Braun and Sizemore

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

Ha! Sorry Morris, but I kind of agreed with you. Family first. Just human nature. Anyway, I have all three of those guys right next to each other in the ranks, and right now I'm going Miggy, Braun, Sizemore.

Sam (Erlanger, KY)

I have to drop one of the following to add a catcher in place of Wieters. Adam Jones, Billy Butler, Elijah Dukes or Brandon Wood. Thanks Tristan!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

Brandon Wood. Doesn't even need a second thought.

Shawn (Cape Cod, MA)

Tristan, you said yesterday in Camp Notes that you think Rasmus makes the Cards opening day roster. Where do you rank him compared to guys like Snider and Spilborghs?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

That was from a report out of our affiliate in St. Louis, though frankly, I'm not a Colby Rasmus fan for 2009 and I know he won't be on any of my teams based on his price tag. He hasn't wowed me this spring, he had an awful 2008 in the minors and I just think the downside is too great. Sure, I'd take him over Travis Snider, because of the power/speed thing, but not over Ryan Spilborghs.

Elliot Tompras ( Sedona, Arizona)

Who is the best redsox pitcher? I plan on drafting him in fantasy baseball.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

I think it's Jonathan Papelbon!

Bart (Toronto, ON)

THC, for the Baseball challenge what team pitching staff do you like for the first week? Too early? I'm itching for the games to count.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

Being totally honest with you, Bart, it's just too early for that. I just ran through the entire NL staffs for my draft tomorrow night and there are too many spots left to be decided, especially in bullpens. And with a good half-dozen drafts left, I'll be looking at Week 1 in more like two weeks from now, sorry to say. But rest assured, I will have that preview for you in time!

Erik(OH)

TC, are you worried about Scott Baker's rough spring?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

Not really, as I haven't heard any report that it's health related. For all we know he might simply be working on things, like using a specific pitch to get it ready for the season. For the guys we know already I don't fret much about spring stats unless there's some legitimate negative reason behind them.

Chaz (WV)

Follow up to Shawn's question..You seriously take Rasmus over Snider? really? If Snider consistently starts, he has a better season IMO

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

If. And I don't think I'll end up with either on my teams. I mean, I like Snider as a long-term prospect, but that guy whiffs a ton. Creates a big downside for him as well.

Bizzaro George (Gene)

THC--what's your bracket look like? Also the 4 NL teams in the playoffs will be...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

I still liked "Feldman" from the bizarro world because a buddy of mine always felt he was a lot like Kramer, and his name actually is Feldman. Nice reference there, Gene. As for my bracket, I'm really nothing close to a bracketologist. College sports is way too much information for me to keep up with, so I tend to randomly fill brackets, as I like the tourney more for the good watching than really investing myself in the teams. I think I had Memphis consistently up there, if memory serves. Don't know why. I have nothing to back that up. And four NL teams, hmmm. Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers and ... Diamondbacks!

tom (philly)

would drop span for choo?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

Yup. Not a Span fan. (I'm reading way too much Dr. Seuss lately.)

Kramer (NYC)

I'm on no sleep---will Ricky Weeks bat over .260 this year? What about his on base %?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

A toss into the East River will wake you up nice-n-quick. And no, he won't bat .260-plus, I don't think. I own Weeks in a sim league, know the dude pretty well. My projections have him around .250 with a .360ish OBP, which is pretty useful in sim, actually. And it matters if your league uses OBP over batting average.

Dr. Seuss

Do you like Green Eggs and Ham?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

Not with a mouse, not with Brian Shouse, not with a goat, not with Randy Choate, I will not eat them here or there, I will not eat them with Bryan LaHair!!!

Jay (San Diego)

Last keeper in dynasty league - Daniel Murphy or Jason Kubel?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

Kubel for me, but I gotta admit, I'm a Murphy fan. If you read my "Out of the Box" around the time he got called up last year you'll remember that a buddy of mine who's a Mets fan actually tipped me off to Mr. Murphy last August, and I've been nothing but impressed since. Including this spring.

Jo Jo

Awesome weekend coming up. My draft and March Madness! Not sure I can contain myself any longer here at work. Can you give me some advice on how to make it through?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:31 AM)

Good lunch at a sports bar, make sure you get yourself out of the office for the hour so you can catch up on all the great sports coming up!

Gabe (FL)

What are your thoughts on Fred Lewis? and is stealing 30 bases possible?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

I like him. I probably liken Lewis to that Shin-Soo Choo type in NL formats, and you know, I was a huge Nate McLouth fan a year ago this time -- check my LABR team, that was a must-get for me and he exceeded even my own optimistic expectations -- and I don't think it's crazy to say Lewis or Choo might be this year's McLouth. Feels a little similar to me based on where their values slot in, comparative to the upside potential.

Jay (Boston)

Looks like Tommy Hanson has a chance to win the 5th spot in the rotation. If this happens to you thinking he can be a decent fantasy starter this year? Projections? Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

The only way that's happening, in my mind, is if the Braves determine that Tom Glavine is just not at all close to ready to take the fifth starter's job. Otherwise, I see that rotation as set, and promoting Hanson right now as foolish, if you're gonna demote him in a month anyway. That said, I like the kid as a solid reserve or keeper pick. He's going to be goooooood. Think one of this year's more promising midseason call-ups, with low-threes ERA potential. I just don't see a full year, that's all. Maybe more like a half-season.

Derek (Boston)

Because of his elbow, am I stupid to keep C Hamels over R Halladay or B Webb? His ceiling is just so high!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

All three pitchers are keepers. They're all in my top 10. But Roy Halladay is the smartest pick of the bunch, yes, especially with this news.

A fox in a box wearing sox's (Chicago)

Hey THC - 10 Team NL Only Keeper 5X5 League. Lindstrom ($1) is my closer keeper. Little worried now. With a trade what do you think a Lilly at $13 could attract closer wise?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Chad Qualls. Brian Wilson. Heath Bell. Feels about right. I'd try for them in that order.

Gray (Bergenfield, NJ)

Matt Wieters. Obviously they want to keep him down until June 1, but if he's hitting .350 in AAA in early May, will they really be able to keep to that?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

I don't manage MLB teams' books, so heck if I know how what goes on in those offices if it happens. And I very well could see that happen. Still, I think Memorial Day is the smartest estimate for Mr. Wieters' 2009 debut. And I think he'll hit immediately, period. Draft as such on exactly those terms -- which is around No. 10 catcher value -- and I think you'll be pleased.

Max (Chicago)

Votto vs. Ortiz? Does this even make sense?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

I have to go David Ortiz, but I don't think you're crazy for asking. Big Joey Votto fan. So consistent, that kid. Much better future too. If it's a long-term keeper league with Votto locked in cheap, I could build you the case.

Hardy (Jacksonville, IL)

Better option as extra OF: Dexter Fowler, Colby Rasmus, Daniel Murphy, or J.D. Drew.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

Drew will rank highest on many lists (not mine), Murphy is probably the safest of this bunch and Rasmus is the highest-upside option of the group. Again, I'm not a Rasmus fan but if this is for a clear reserve, I like to take shots on upside with my clear bench spots.

Jeff (CA)

N. Cruz over either Hawpe or Bradley, just for this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

Not over Brad Hawpe, but I actually have the other two ranked almost identically. And on a per-game basis, I'm a big Milton Bradley fan. I feel better about the risk/reward there.

Bart (Toronto, ON)

Thumbs up or down on 3 pitchers: Justin Duchscherer, Brandon Morrow, Chris Carpenter.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

Down, down, up, though obviously where these guys fall in the draft has an impact on my calls. In terms of where I see them going on average, those are my picks.

Mike (New Providence, NJ)

Where would you rank Sandoval with other catchers? Many thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

If Pablo Sandoval is catcher-eligible in your league, I'd slot him in comfortably at No. 9, right between Mike Napoli and Chris Iannetta.

Ramon (NY)

Any shot at 20-20 for Spilborghs?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Certainly. Adapting nicely to leadoff, hit righties better than people think in 2008, which alleviates concerns about his being a platoon type, and he's hitting this spring. I could see those numbers.

Melvin Mora

Can I duplicate my last years numbers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

Nah, but to be clear, you are not a bust in 2009. More like a solid .280-20 type.

Chad (Madison, WI)

THC, when you play H2H do you still seek out 20-20 guys or do they tend to not give enough power or enough speed each week?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

It depends if it's categorical or points, and if it's categorical, I traditionally load up with a monster offense and closers and stream starters, and if it's points then I give added weight to top-four-of-the-lineup types. Those are the main differences compared to Roto. Of course, 20/20 guys are quite helpful, but I don't go out of my way to get them over their ADPs.

Mike (New York)

What can we expect from Verlander? I snagged him in the 15th round last night but am still worried about his productiveness.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:46 AM)

Right now I have Justin Verlander projected for 13 wins, a 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 170 K's, which really isn't all that bad a season. I can't say I feel incredibly confident in him, but I also think he's the kind of guy I'd be happy with around that spot.

Morris O'Brian (Washington DC)

Your earlier ranking didn't work. Now Chloe wants you to rank Fielder, Holliday, and Carlos Lee. thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

Morris, if you can crack pretty much any government code, couldn't you just hack into my laptop and get my rankings? Sheesh. You disappoint me, Morris. Tsk tsk tsk. Holliday, Lee, Fielder.

Clint (Hollywood)

Tristan does David Aardsma really have a shot at the SEA closer job?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

I think there's a bit of an artificial buzz going on that's going to hook a few people more than they should, but I am also not totally dismissive of the idea. That's one of those "keep the name tucked away in deep AL-only" types, but I think it's too early to be making that call so bold.

Stephen (Louisville)

Would you want Soto/Hart or McCann/Ellsbury?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

Latter two. But I'm a Jacoby Ellsbury fan.

Dallas McPherson (Fla)

Any chance I get regular AB's with the Marlins this year? After all, I did hit more HR's in the minors last year than anyone else.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

Two words: Quadruple-A. Just feels like what we'll be reading about McPherson a few years down the road, no? Huge power, huge strikeout potential. And a poor spring to boot. Sure, with Gaby Sanchez performing equally stinky, I could see McPherson getting a shot with Jorge Cantu shifting to first, but I'm not a buyer, except as a dirt-cheap NL-only pick.

Kev (NYC)

Why do you only answer questions about players that aren't in the top 100?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

Sigh, can't win, because if I went only in the other direction, I'd get the opposite complaint! I try to take the best ones I see in the time I have, but I'm fine with answering questions about top-100 guys too, if you got 'em.

Kara (NJ)

How come girls get no love on these chats?Lowell or E.Encarnacion at 3B this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

Ha! I get a lot of people who say the opposite ... but at any rate, Edwin Encarnacion of those two. Safer guy with comparable numbers at the very least.

Josh (Philly)

I've noticed that in the mock's I do, I end up with many of the same players. Is this normal because I like some players better more than the field and I can expect a similar team on draft day?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

Not uncommon. I find that happens to me a lot, too. Fact is, everyone should have "his (or her) guys."

Kev (NYC)

Fair Follow up? Where does Upton rank amongst OFers? Top 10 and does his injury concern you?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

I don't have B.J. Upton in the top 10 but he's right outside it. And no, his injury isn't of dire concern to me. I have him 13th at the position.

Kevin (New York)

Who is the most under-rated reliever this season in the MLB?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

Hard to say because it depends what you're looking for. Josh Kinney keeps ending up on my teams. I think J.P. Howell is a nice ratios specialist. Jason Motte's stock is soaring. And I'm still calling Chad Qualls "my guy."

Erik the Clown (Birthday Party)

No, I don't know Bozo. What is he, a clown? You're livin' in the past, MAN! Look to the future--give me some AL pitchers to target in the rookie part of my draft, with ETA of 2010 or 2011. Thanks, and I gotta run--gotta go put out a grease fire with my big shoe!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

Derek Holland? Trevor Cahill? Brett Anderson? Though I wouldn't be shocked to see any of them get a little big-league time in 2009...

Denny (St Louis)

Thoughts on Ryan Doumit this season?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

Love the bat, hate the durability concerns. That said he's fifth among catchers for me, so obviously I'm a fan overall. He'll be almost Brian McCann-like ... in the games that he plays I mean.

Mary (Boston)

Speaking of top 10, Who is your top 10 OF?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

Ryan BraunGrady SizemoreCarlos BeltranJosh HamiltonMatt HollidayCarlos LeeIchiro SuzukiManny RamirezNick MarkakisAlfonso Soriano

David (South Brunswick, NJ)

Is Pudge Rodriquez a top 12 catcher?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

No. Boy has that team been awful offensively this spring, and while Ivan Rodriguez represents a big upgrade for the team at catcher, fact is he's an average catcher hitting-wise at best. When I wrote the blog about him the other day, I said "No. 2 NL-only catcher," and I'm sticking to it.

Mike (Cincy)

Seasons like Ludwick and Quentin's last year are what really win leagues. Who has a shot to imitate these guys - one player from out of nowhere (Lud) and one top prospect who no longer has any shine to him (Quen)? Thanks.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

Let's play "what if." What if it's Ryan Spilborghs and Jeremy Hermida? What if? Remember, the point here is to get guys so late as to make them those breakout types, so when I dig down so very deep, my eyes keep gravitating towards them.

Kev (NYC)

Why is Perralta ranked so low when he put up 26/104 last year...as a SS?!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

Beats me. I'm ever increasing my opinion on Peralta, and part of it is that after him, the shortstop pool in AL-only leagues drops off immensely.

Kevin (New York)

Milton Bradley or Jack Cust?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

Bradley. Again, per-game basis.

Dr. Ben Feffa (The Hamptons)

THC your advice is breathtaking. Now how about som insight on Joe Mauer's breathtaking back?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Ha! I can see right through you, Ben, I know you're just saying that to be nice. As for Mauer, we're supposed to hear an update sometime today, and last I heard was that he's got a chance to be ready for Opening Day, but I have to think he has to get back on the field in the next week or so for that to happen.

Steve (Chicago)

Is Billingsley's offseason injury a concern?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

Nah. He has pitched fine this spring so far. Nothing I saw to suggest it's a worry.

Hurley (Hawaii)

Dude, why aren't more people talking about Ramon Hernandez as a sleeper catcher? He has the ability, proved he can hit, moves to a hitters park, and has something to prove. He may be a bit long in the tooth, but the guy can rake.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

Hurley! Hey, I won't spoil last night for anyone. I do like Hernandez, high-level No. 2 mixed-league catcher. Just outside my top 10 at the position.

Josh (Cleveland)

What are your predictions on Anthony Reyes this year? He had a great run as a starter in Cleveland last year before he was shutdown with the elbow injury.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

Like him, and declare him a definite sleeper if he can stay healthy. I love change-of-scenery guys when they had that huge prospect potential in the past.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

OK, time to call things to a close today. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I didn't get to yours. Take care everyone, and enjoy your drafts this weekend and the tourney!