Keith Law

  (1:02 PM)

Andruw Jones' swing scrambles a file clip (4, 5)

Dave (Edison, NJ)

Hey KLAW, how can the Yankees get the kid in Pittsburgh to play center field for us? Every time I see that guy, I think he was born to be a Yankee.

Keith Law

  (1:03 PM)

You mean McLouth, the kid who can't play centerfield? You should get your eyes checked. Or your think.

dave (RI)

Keith, do you see any chance that the Pirates call up Alvarez at some point this year? Who will have the better career, Alvarez or Vitters?

Keith Law

  (1:04 PM)

Vitters. I'm sure the Pirates will push Alvarez very aggressively, especially with Smoak impressing everyone in Arizona. They took the best name, not the best guy.

Jason (Philly)

When did they let you out of Prison?

Keith Law

  (1:04 PM)

The appeals court decided that that reader had it coming.

Dave (Toronto)

With the Pirates going to India and finding propects from there. Do you see cricket skills being transferable to baseball?

Keith Law

  (1:06 PM)

The Pirates didn't go to India. Those kids came to the US by way of one of the top agencies in the business. And no, I don't.

Jim (the 'Ham)

TOMMY HANSON....Real deal or hype???

Keith Law

  (1:05 PM)

Real deal. Are you new?

MW (GB, WI)

More indefensible - Dusty Baker's handing of Mark Prior, or Cartoon Network's handling of Home Movies?

Keith Law

  (1:06 PM)

Nice. Baker.

Nick (Milwaukee)

Hi Keith - great to have you back here. I saw your great piece (shameless plug) on Darvish earlier this week. How would you rank him as a prospect if eligible for the rankings, especially in comparison to a guys like Hanson, Feliz, Strasburg? Thanks.

Keith Law

  (1:07 PM)

Behind Wieters. Probably ahead of Price.

Jason (Detroit)

Respectfully, Keith, isnt the Alvarez "best name, not best guy" opinion not widely shared by other scouts, many of who feel he had the best overall bat longterm in the draft?

Keith Law

  (1:07 PM)

No, that's not accurate. I know several teams and many scouts who backed off Alvarez for various reasons, like the poor Friday-night performances, troubles against lefties, or the position question.

Jon (Phoenix)

Are you a believer in Nolasco?

Keith Law

  (1:08 PM)

I think he is what he was in 2008. There's no more upside there. And that's quite good.

Matt (Kansas City)

Was Kyle Davies September for real? Last outting aside, he's had a good spring.

Keith Law

  (1:10 PM)

I haven't caught him, but word is he's got a much improved curveball this spring. I like him as a breakout guy for this year.

Kyle (OH)

I know spring training stats are meaningless, but Gordon Beckham has played exceptionally well. Do you foresee a midseason call-up for the talented 2B?

Keith Law

  (1:10 PM)

Yes, because they don't have anyone else who's going to seize that job long-term. I'd rather see Beckham at ss, Getz in 2b, and Ramirez in cf, but that's not going to happen.

James (SD)

Are you coming to San Diego for Strasburg's start tomorrow? Can't wait to see the writeup. Supposedly all the guns this year have had him 100-102, but I'm not sure if I believe it.

Keith Law

  (1:10 PM)

Yes, I'll be there.

Boozer, Wrigleyville

We all know about Price and Wieters, but who could the NL ROY candidates be? McCutcheon? Rasmus? I'm not a big fan of Maybin.

Keith Law

  (1:12 PM)

Maybin, Rasmus, Zimmerman.

Brian (Omaha)

I heard talk of Price going down to AAA and Porcello up in the bigs. Isn't that backwards? What does that say as to the organizational philosophies of both teams?

Keith Law

  (1:13 PM)

It's not backwards; you can justify having Price go work on his changeup for a few starts, and of course he said last week his slider had "gone away" (HT: draysbay).

Dan (Buffalo, NY)

Klaw, did you hear the latest on Adam Miller? Guess I wasn't so crazy to question whether the Indians should consider cutting him, huh?

Keith Law

  (1:15 PM)

Yes, you were, and apparently, you still are. They've lost nothing by keeping him. If his career is over - and let's face it, "career-threatening injuries" seem to happen a lot more than "career-ending injuries" do in baseball - then all they've lost is the brief use of a roster spot. I would love to see you as a GM, though - top prospect gets hurt? Release him! It would be like Jim Bowden on uppers.

Ogburn (Frostproof,FL)

Can Niemann be a good #5 for the Rays until Price is called up? Does he eventually go down or to the pen?

Keith Law

  (1:16 PM)

Pen guy.

Gavin (San Diego)

You've seen the Padres a couple times now...do you see any potential first-division regulars from the minors, outside of Blanks?

Keith Law

  (1:16 PM)

No. Latos was gone already before I got there and word was he didn't look great. Venable ... no. Hundley, no. I saw Fuson's comments about how they have a top-ten or top-five farm system. I want whatever he's having.

Boozer, Wrigleyville

Angel Guzman is getting lit up and is out of options. Is his stuff good enough to ignore the Spring/Winter stats and throw him in the pen anyway? Lou doesn't have patience, and I see the Cubs losing him to waivers.

Keith Law

  (1:17 PM)

They're so much better than any other team in that division that they could carry him like a Rule 5 guy (he's better than Patton). And yes, I think they'll lose him to waivers.

Greg (toronto)

Keith, how many wins would you predict for the Jays this season? Is 75 wins too low?

Keith Law

  (1:18 PM)

They're probably an 83-win team that will win 75-78 games because of the division.

Dan (Bridgewater, NJ)

How do you think Pudge will do with him now being at Minute Maid? Good numbers?

Keith Law

  (1:18 PM)

No, bad numbers. Just like last year.

Angie Bonpensiero (Jersey)

Are you going to any Grapefruit League games this year?

Keith Law

  (1:18 PM)

No.

Noonan (Philly, PA)

Hamels' elbow - serious cause for concern, or expected wear and tear after throwing so many innings last year? Or, both?

Keith Law

  (1:21 PM)

Both. Before last year I think you could comfortably have called him "injury-prone." I wonder if 2008 will end up being this outlier year for him where he was healthy and awesome for an entire season, but then reverted to his prior form of being hurt ... and awesome.

James (NYC)

Have you seen the Giants pitchers yet? Gonna give us a blog post on Jonathan Sanchez, etc?

Keith Law

  (1:21 PM)

Sanchez isn't here. They've been holding this tournament called the World Baseball Classic for the last few weeks. Sixteen countries from around the world participate (okay, fifteen plus Puerto Rico) ... you should check it out, it's cool.

Ryan (DSM)

Sidney Ponson...... No questions, just disbelief.

Keith Law

  (1:22 PM)

Livan Hernandez is probably going to be the fifth starter for a team with delusions of playoff grandeur. FTW.

Ryan (Boston)

Why are you blogs back on Insider?

Keith Law

  (1:23 PM)

That's not my decision. I just go see players and write articles.

Dan (Chobe, Fla)

I've heard the kid from Vegas is an early favorite for the #1 overall pick in 2011. Who else is in that conversation, Gerritt Cole? Danny Hultzen? Thanks.

Keith Law

  (1:24 PM)

If that draft was held today, it would be 1. Harper 2. everyone else. Kind of like this year with Strasburg. (Which means that whoever finishes with the worst record in 2009 screwed up royal, because they'll get the top overall pick in the in-between draft.) I think Alex Meyer will end up in that discussion for #2. Cole, btw, is going to be controversial - great fastball, improved but still rough delivery, but a lot of teams didn't like his makeup in high school and he's still doing things like showing up his catcher on the mound.

Brian (Clearwater, FL)

Thanks for the surprise chat, who in your opinion is the most overhyped prospect?

Keith Law

  (1:25 PM)

QED, Pedro Alvarez. I'm not saying he's awful, just that he wasn't the second-best player in that draft, and these conditioning/work ethic issues aren't a surprise.

Jon (NY, NY)

You seem quite angry and short tempered today Klaw

Keith Law

  (1:26 PM)

You're definitely new.

Mike(San Diego)

According to the STL Post Dispatch, Tony LaRussa says that Jason Motte is in the lead to be the closer. Good decision?

Keith Law

  (1:27 PM)

Perez > Motte for me, but Perez is hurt. Motte's a one-pitch guy. It's a good pitch, but man cannot live on fastball alone.

Mike (Belarus)

Klaw - I understand your opinion on Alvarez, but can he still be an above average hitter? Can a core of McLouth, McCutchen, Tabata, Andy LaRoche and Alvarez bring a winning team to Pittsburgh? (praying that they have a decent rotation in a couple of years).

Keith Law

  (1:29 PM)

Sure, he can be an above-average hitter. But I don't think that core you listed is a contender's offense. McLouth was very ordinary after Memorial Day last year. And there's no way you're in Belarus.

Tweed (Chicago, IL)

"Especially with Smoak impressing everyone in Arizona. They took the best name, not the best guy." Now KLaw, are you suggesting that the Pirates should have taken Justin Smoak all along and that you knew better than the Pirates' scouts? Or are you just saying that both you and the Pirates were mistaken that in thinking that Pedro Alvarez was better than Justin Smoak? What a difference a year makes eh?

Keith Law

  (1:30 PM)

I ranked Smoak over Alvarez before the draft, dating back to their freshman summers (Smoak on the Cape and Alvarez on Team USA). I also think that the decision to take Alvarez wasn't entirely the scouting department's. Their team president, Frank Coonelly, is by all accounts heavily involved in baseball ops decisions.

john (columbia, sc)

How good is Strasburg compared to other recent college pitchers who have gone high in the draft? Is he really a once in a generation talent?

Keith Law

  (1:31 PM)

The last guy this good would be someone from before I was involved in the industry - other scouts who've been doing this for 20+ years are bringing up names from the 70s and 80s like Witt, Heaton, Tatsuno.

Brian (Omaha)

Is Smoak up in 2009?

Keith Law

  (1:34 PM)

It would be bold and somewhat risky, but why not give him the job now? Chris Davis is just keeping time for Smoak at this point, and Davis has been awful this spring. (Apparently his teammates are razzing him about Smoak creeping up to take his job.) The two arguments against are Smoak's lack of any real professional experience and the way it might destroy Davis' trade value. So that's a long way of saying yes, I think he could come up in 2009 unless he's somehow blocked.

Lenny (Villanova, PA)

Keith, do you think Tom Gorzelanny is a good buy low candidate? He was just optioned down to the minors by Pittsburgh. What would his trade value be?

Keith Law

  (1:34 PM)

I think he's hurt. His velo was off all last year.

Noonan (Philly, PA)

Jason Donald - good enough to fill in for Pedro Feliz on opening day?

Keith Law

  (1:34 PM)

Yes.

Josh (SF, CA)

Some reports say the Marlins have the best combo of 3 prospects, and others say the Giants represent well at 4 prospects. What would you take: a top heavy system with a couple really high-end guys, or a very balanced system that consistenty produces starters?

Keith Law

  (1:36 PM)

The top-heavy system. I can find average players in trades. Stars are very difficult to acquire except through the draft. So give me the Giants' system or the Orioles' rather than a system with more average prospects (grade 50s) but no 55s or 60s.

Pirates Front Office (Steel City)

Why do all of our young pitchers get hurt?

Keith Law

  (1:36 PM)

You can't pin that on Huntington's group. They've been there 18 months. Gorzelanny was probably hurt the moment they walked in the door.

Dan (Mesa)

How accurate are these radar gun readings? Last I checked, Nolan Ryan still had the Guinness record for fastest pitch at 100.9 mph. It seems like if some of these guys were really throwing 101+ mph, they'd bring in the Guinness guys ... or did I just answer my own question?

Keith Law

  (1:37 PM)

I'm guessing Strasburg is more concerned with the industry's take than Guinness'. I have not personally gotten a 101 on my gun, ever; Lindstrom hit 100 twice for me at the 2006 Futures Game. If Strasburg hits 101, I'll let everyone know.

Nick (Cleveland)

So your not a big Chris Davis fan? You waited to tell me this now after I drafted him in my fantasy league? Unbefriekinglievable.

Keith Law

  (1:39 PM)

I think long-term, Smoak > Davis. Davis has big raw power in a good park for LH power hitters. For your purposes, he's good. And I don't seriously think he's going to lose his job this month. It's a lot easier for me to sit here and say "Demote Davis! Play Smoak!" when I'm not running the team. I'm sure the Rangers' guys will give me grief today when I go over there to see Boscan.

Keith (Chicago)

Is Shoppach an above average starting catcher?

Keith Law

  (1:40 PM)

No. 133 Ks in 352 AB. He will chase that slider low and away until the sun explodes.

Watt (Newport Beach, CA)

ROCKIES YA? With a .374 lifetime OBP, how do you see Ryan Spilborghs doing at the leadoff spot? Todd Helton 3 HRs in Spring Training, any chance of power comeback, if healthy? How do u like Morales this year?

Keith Law

  (1:41 PM)

I've heard thirdhand that Morales is throwing better, but like I said, that's thirdhand info. Spilborghs doesn't lead off for a contender. He's a placeholder. Fowler could be up this year to take that job.

Jon (Des Moines)

Keith, do Ciriaco or Hallberg of the D'backs organization have a chance to make the big league club in the future?

Keith Law

  (1:41 PM)

I like Ciriaco's glove. A little flashy, but everything's quick - hands, transfer, release arm.

John (Antarctica)

Keith, did Matt Antonelli look any better to you? Word is he lost some weight and regained fluidity.

Keith Law

  (1:42 PM)

No, same guy. 3-1 count in the 9th yesterday, swung down at ball four. That swinging-down thing ... he's been doing it since college. It's part of why I was never that high on him.

Mike (Westchester, NY)

Witt, Heaton, Tatsuno? I guess that goes to show you greatness in high school and college doesn't mean the ticket to the HOF should be punched.

Keith Law

  (1:44 PM)

Tatsuno might have been a star here but played in an industrial league in Japan because he wasn't offered as much as he wanted in the draft here. He blew his arm out over there and was never the same. But yeah, greatness in college <> greatness in the pros. Jered Weaver had an absurd junior year, probably one of the best statistical years of any D1 starter, and he's just a back-end guy in the majors.

Ryan (Pittsburgh)

Just curious Keith, but while we're talking pitch speed, did Zumaya ever hit 100 on your gun? You never know with those stadium guns.

Keith Law

  (1:45 PM)

98. Verlander topped 97 when I saw him healthy. Got 98 from Wilmer Font last spring, and I think Feliz hit a 98 yesterday. I know it's weird to say, but 98 is common and 100 is really rare.

Ben (Boston)

No Casey Kelly on your Top 100? Did the Sox waste 3 million there or does this kid have legitimate potential as a starter?

Keith Law

  (1:46 PM)

They're going to make him a full-time pitcher but are doing it very slowly. Given the distant ETA I thought putting him on the 100 was too aggressive. FWIW, the Red Sox people to whom I spoke before and after the list agreed.

Nick (Cleveland)

So don't you think Shapiro should've traded Shoppach this offseason? We've been drafting catchers left and right, still have Martinez, and have Santana almost ready. Why wouldn't he try to pawn Shoppach off and get an extra rotation arm or maybe a legit third baseman instead of Derosa.

Keith Law

  (1:47 PM)

I do think cashing him in would have been smart, but it doesn't seem like the market for young/inexpensive catching was that good this winter.

Tom (SF)

One more speed question, Lincecum top on your gun? Gagne top?

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

Lincecum 97, even on the Cape. (I've told the story before but it's worth repeating. Saw him come in out of the pen on the Cape in 2005. Faced six hitters. He struck out the first five with the same pattern: Fastball for a strike, FB up for a swing and miss, curveball down for the K. The last guy got smart and grounded out on the first pitch.) Never saw Gagne at his peak.

Adam (Toronto)

Just read a wire story that the Jays are now saying June-July best case for McGowan with Cito saying next year is also possible... Is this close to a "Mike Sirotka" situation as far as career-ender ?

Keith Law

  (1:49 PM)

One, I hope not. He was electric before he got hurt. Two, I think Sirotka is a rare/extreme scenario. His shoulder injury was apparently one of the worst the doctors had seen, and I think he had at least two operations. I'm more concerned that McGowan comes back and is 89-92 instead of 93-97. And I wouldn't count on anything from him this year. Muddle through with Romero, Cecil, Litsch, Purcey, maybe Mills, etc.

Peter (Minneapolis, MN)

What do you think the Brewers will do with J.J. Hardy, who has said that he will not switch positions, when Escobar is ready for the majors?

Keith Law

  (1:51 PM)

Either trade him or put him on a three-way call with Michael Young and John Valentin.

Rory(Sacramento)

I spring numbers don't count, but should it lend any hope that a guy like Brett Gardner could be better than advertised? Like the fact that he has three homeruns maybe means he has enough strength to not have the bat knocked out of his hands? I'm not looking for Mickey Mantle.

Keith Law

  (1:51 PM)

No. The caliber of players and the speed of the game are completely different in the spring. The only time I'll pay attention to spring stats is if a pitcher is walking a ton of guys or a hitter is striking out like crazy.

Brett (Boston MA)

Are you watching NCAA hoops today at all?

Keith Law

  (1:51 PM)

No, I'll be working this afternoon.

John (Dallas)

Keith, what do you think of Xavier Paul for the Dodgers, left fielder in 2 years?

Keith Law

  (1:52 PM)

I like him but as a platoon guy.

Dan (Bridgewater, NJ)

Will Kevin Gregg end up being the closer of Chicago?

Keith Law

  (1:52 PM)

You'd better hope not.

Adam (Toronto)

Jordan Zimmerman... are the Nats going to send him to AAA ?

Keith Law

  (1:52 PM)

Hasn't he all but made that rotation? I'd be shocked if they sent him down. He's not going to get any better than what he is right now. So use him.

Buell (Fresno)

Do you find these "Roy Halladay's IQ is 129" / "Britney Spears IQ is 110" advertisements offensive? I saw one the other day that said "Obama's IQ = 125". I hope that's not true

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

I've become quite adept at tuning those things out. It's like they're not on the page. And I agree that that seems a little light on the President.

Brian (Omaha)

How far away from being an effective big league starter is Feliz?

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

At least a full year.

Norman (San Jose)

Are either Cahill or Brett Anderson ready for the majors? who do you like more and why? does anderson remind you of anyone?

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

Anderson yes. Cahill less so. Mazzaro no.

Slew (Seattle)

Serious question: Does it really matter in what manner Shoppach made his outs? (He had a 123 OPS+)

Keith Law

  (1:55 PM)

It matters in that I don't think a hitter with that contact rate (and that fundamental problem making contact - he's always struggled with even so-so breaking stuff when I've seen him) is going to hit enough to post a 123 OPS+.

Ryan (Pittsburgh)

Buell from Fresno, as a member of Mensa (it looks good on my resume) I can personally assure you that IQ's mean absolutely nothing in terms of measuring success. Case in point, I am unemployed...

Keith Law

  (1:56 PM)

I'm not even sure that IQ measures intelligence.

Alex (Knoxville, TN)

Junichi Tazawa has put up great Spring Training numbers (yes, I know it is just spring training), has he changed your opinion of his ceiling? Does he projet to potentially be better then Dice-K?

Keith Law

  (1:57 PM)

I wouldn't change my opinion until we see how he does in the regular season. I didn't see Dice-K at the same age; Tazawa doesn't project to better than Darvish.

Tim (Chicago)

Don't know if you've been recently (or ever) but any London restaurant recommendations?

Keith Law

  (1:57 PM)

20 years ago. A little out of date.

John, Toronto

Can you direct me to a site like "New Baseball Stats for Dummies"? I still think old school (BA, HR, RBI), and I know it's wrong, but struggle when I read something like "Shoppach had a 123 OPS+".

Keith Law

  (1:58 PM)

Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs would be two good places to start. Hardball Times. Beyond the Box Score.

Pico (Denver)

Any chance you go for a chat record one of these days? It would probably be the most interesting, and educational, chat in ESPN history. Although you might alienate some newbies with your strong opinions and wit.

Keith Law

  (1:58 PM)

I doubt it. I'll settle for being the fastest, snarkiest chatter.

Matt (Philly)

I've been reading a lot lately about how Mark Prior's health problems are Dusty Baker's fault. I'm just wondering what it is that Baker did? The IPs dont' seem too outrageous...

Keith Law

  (1:59 PM)

His workloads down the stretch in 2003 were awful, down to that playoff game where he went out for the 8th visibly tired and Baker had no one up in the pen. And Prior did have some arm action issues (the "high elbow") even as an amateur.

Mike (San Diego)

What did you think of Everth Cabrera? Six errors already, but supposedly the speed is unreal. Could you justify keeping him on the major league roster all season?

Keith Law

  (2:00 PM)

Not sure if it was posted but I wrote about him last night. Good speed, good defender, but the bat might be a 35 right now. I wouldn't keep him.

harry potter sacramento

What do the dodgers do with #5 starter? pedro, schmidt, milton, snape?

Keith Law

  (2:00 PM)

McDonald. I don't know why they wouldn't use him.

Stephen (Sacramento, CA)

Is this the year Brandon Wood becomes an average player? I'll take average.

Keith Law

  (2:02 PM)

They don't seem committed to playing him. I think he could be average because he'll hit for enough power to overcome the low BA.

Mao Zedong, Beijing

14 countries -- One China, two teams...

Keith Law

  (2:01 PM)

Well done.

Ryan (Pittsburgh)

Keith, nobody is picking fights with you today. Light question count?

Keith Law

  (2:02 PM)

Nobody saying anything clever. Just the usual insults.

Paul (Denver)

So I guess not giving up a run in spring training yet is not indicative of Gregg's ability?

Keith Law

  (2:03 PM)

Exactly.

MJ (Edmonton)

If you had the power to implement a new rule (or change an existing rule)in MLB, what would it be?

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

I'd eliminate territorial rights, make batters stay in the box between pitches, no HBP if you get hit on body armor, eliminate slotting in the draft, remove Puerto Rico from the draft ... I'd be busy.

jon (San Juan)

i knowyou can't vote for the hall of fame yet, but do you have a cy young or mvp vote?

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

I am eligible for those this fall, but I won't know if I get to vote on any of them until mid-September. It's at the discretion of the BBWAA secretary, I believe.

mike (tx)

Epic flail!

Keith Law

  (2:05 PM)

Winner! And the only person to get the cryptic crossword clue that I posted at the top. Thanks for all the questions. If you happen to be at SDSU for Strasburg tomorrow and you see me behind the plate, come over and say hi between innings!