Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

Good morning everyone! Let's get right to your questions...

Tim (Boston)

Hasn't Clay done enough to earn a spot in the rotation yet?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:02 AM)

Yes, but unfortunately, the Red Sox also have a productive Justin Masterson to turn to, and that's only if Brad Penny isn't healthy enough to pitch the first week of the season. Oh, and don't forget, John Smoltz will be back around midseason. It's a deep rotation, actually, but I still say Buchholz's performance bodes well, and keeps him very sleeper worthy.

King (TX)

Please no 24 or Lost spoilers today. I haven't had a chance to watch them yet. Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

OK, I won't spoil you! (Not that I generally do.)

Michael (Milwaukee, WI)

Tristan, my dear boy. Do you think Cahill or Hanson are worth owning in a 12 team non-keeper?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Hmmmm I'd say they're fringe picks. Like reserve-round selections. The thing with Tommy Hanson is he's going to kick off things in Triple-A, and I hate wasting ESPN standard bench spots on guys in the minors, no matter how good they are. He's a special talent, though. You must keep an eye on him, and be ready to pounce. Trevor Cahill, well, if you've been attending my chats lately, you know I like the kid. Big-time sleeper. Yes, I would say that's a guy I would spend one of those three standard reserve spots on.

Toby (Harrisburg, PA)

I have David Price. Now what?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

Well, that's another case that falls into the Tommy Hanson category. You know, Hanson and Price could be the best "they pitch four months and are great, like Tim Lincecum's rookie year great" pitchers in the game this year. Can you be patient? I'd say if you've already picked the guy, then you must be patient. But it's a hit to his draft stock if your draft has yet to occur. Rays are saving future money in exchange for going with a weaker fifth starter for at least a month. It's a shame.

Ben Hamster

Hey Tristan, how soon do you draft Chris Carpenter in a 12-team mixed league? Is the 12th round too early?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

Maybe not too early, but I'd note that's about the absolute soonest I'd take the chance, just based upon the probability he gets hurt. I'm as impressed as anyone by Carpenter's comeback this spring, but it's the spring. It's a long season.

Brian (Fairfield, CT)

So who do you like most? Hanson, Cahill or say Anderson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

For 2008 I like them in that very order.

King (TX)

No you don't....it's the people posting that do? For example....what do you think of______'s death? Tony - How am I going to get out of this one? It's stuff like that. You never say any spoilers. Thanks again.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

Fair enough, I see your point. So suffice to say, if you're posting up a spoiler question today, it's not going to get an answer. It's "Be Nice and Not Spoil" day!

will (Dallas)

Volquez or Nolasco for the year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

I personally prefer Ricky Nolasco. The fact is that since Edinson Volquez is a Dusty Baker pitcher, there's no legitimate reason to say he's less risky in the health department than Nolasco is. And if they're in the ballpark in that aspect, then I want Nolasco's more consistent performance.

Justin ( Maine )

Time to start upping Spilborgh's stock? He has looked great in Spring Training!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

Start? Again, a guy I continue to tout in chats.

cola (si,ny)

am i going to regret drafting mauer with the 78th pick in a 12 team league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

I own Joe Mauer in a long-time, 12-team, 12-player-plus-five-prospects keeper league (as well as Ervin Santana) and can say I am legitimately concerned. I think if you're drafting Joe Mauer, you actually have to slash all of his games through May 15, rerun your projection and draft accordingly. I'm not saying "he's out until May 15," I just think that's the appropriate way to weigh the hit to his draft stock. It's a noticeable one. Drops him out of the top five in my opinion, makes him no less risky a pick than Victor Martinez or Ryan Doumit.

Brett (NZ)

Dude - it's 2009.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

Ha! Good catch Brett, but I'm sure you know what I meant. Watching too much Lost, what with a time travel and all. Know how people always seem to write the wrong year on their checks early in the year? Well, yeah, that's my excuse ... that's the ticket.

Jason (Boston)

Thoughts on Brandon Wood this year? Will he get his fair share of ABs?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

I'm really starting to think that between having Kendry Morales at first base and Juan Rivera at DH, not to mention their middle infield, that Wood is going to get his at-bats. Maybe 350 of them, though I hate what he's probably going to do to your batting average.

Pete (NJ)

What are you hearing about Michael Young's health status?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

The last I had on him was that he was day-to-day, and frankly, I haven't been paying intense attention to that because I really didn't get the impression it'd be anything more serious than that.

Josh: (Denver)

Is Porcello getting a spot in the rotation immediately? Worth owning?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

I think Nate Robertson's performance probably leaves Rick Porcello in the minors to begin the season, but if you look at who the Tigers have, he's going to be up this year, probably sooner than later. Problem is, I'm not as high on him for fantasy in 2009 as I am a Hanson, or Cahill, mentioned earlier. The kid's 20, was in high-A ball last year. What if he has the kind of break-in period Jeremy Bonderman did? I could see that.

Steve (ohio)

Scherzer or Kershaw for the season and beyond?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

I still have this sneaking suspicion that Max Scherzer's future is as a dominant closer, because he'd probably be at too much health risk in a stretched-out starter's role. I think his ceiling for 2009 is higher than Clayton Kershaw's, but the risk of injury is also higher. Probably comparable in draft stock, though if it's me picking, I usually want the guy with that higher ceiling. So it's Scherzer. Long term? I'm taking Kershaw all the way. That kid's gonna be special.

Jesse (St. Louis)

Ryan Braun.. are you concerned?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

Not significantly, no.

Pudge (Houston, TX)

Should I be a starting Catcher in a 10 team mixed league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

Nope.

Carlo (Omaha,NE)

Tristan, would you rather take a shot on Homer Bailey or drop him for Clay Buchholz?? Thanks Tristan!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

Buchholz, but I am not a Bailey fan. I continue to say I think he needs a change of scenery, and perhaps a change of attitude, to figure it all out.

Pete (NJ)

Who gets the nod for the Cubs' closer role?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

I'm really starting to buy into this idea that Kevin Gregg will be the Opening Day closer. That ol' "experience" thing. Bleagh. What that Joe Borowski Indians bullpen did for so-so closers...

Matt P (London, ON)

Whats your favorite cereal?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

Apple Cinnamon Cheerios. Though I admit that I rarely eat cereal for breakfast and generally regard it as finger food, not out-of-bowl.

Steiny (NYC)

Who has more fantasy value. Jody Gerut or Fernando Tatis?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

Hey Steiny! I'd take Gerut. Underrated talent, and since both are platoon types, I'll take the left-handed one, since there are more righties in baseball. Look at Gerut's numbers last year; he is tremendously underrated for what he is. That said, mixed-league owners shouldn't care.

Mike (DC)

Hey Tristan. I picked up Juan Pierre in the last round of my draft. I can use another pitcher though. Is Pierre going to get enough playing time to keep, or should I drop him for Masterson, Marcum or Wellemeyer?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

I don't see Pierre getting more than maybe 300 at-bats in that outfield. The Dodgers barely used him after Manny Ramirez arrived last year, and I'm sorry, but Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are significantly more talented than he is. That said, it's cheap steals, in NL-only leagues. If you're OK in the category but need pitching, I'd be fine with dropping him for Justin Masterson.

Mike (Indy)

How's Lackey's forearm? Cause for concern?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

I'm hearing very serious chatter that he's going to begin the season on the DL. Though he's in a contract year and we're hearing all that talk about his contract negotiations, so I'm sure he's going to work hard to get back out there a.s.a.p. I don't think it's enough to kill his status in the rankings, I'll say that. Maybe just a couple spots.

Adam (NYC)

What kind of numbers are you predicting for Iskikawa and Morales? Are they worth having in a 12-team mixed league? And where would you put Zimmerman in your Hanson, Cahill, Anderson rankings?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

I was just asked about Travis Ishikawa by a friend of mine, and as I explained, I like him as a deep NL-only sleeper because he'll platoon nicely with Rich Aurilia most likely, and perhaps be a .275/15 guy with a hair more upside from that. Franklin Morales, I like him as a reserve-pick type in NL-only. Good winter performance, good spring, I could see matchups value. As for Jordan Zimmermann, I'm tempted to say he belongs behind Trevor Cahill, but he probably doesn't. He should slide in between Hanson and Cahill, and if you're in a shallow league, he's probably tops on that list.

Brian (Tulsa, OK)

Dude! Cereal question gets answered, but I can't get help picking between Oliver Perez $1.00 or Yunel Escobar $2.00 in my NL only 5 X 5 roto style with $300.00 cap.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

Everyone loves cereal! Anyway, both good prices. But I'd keep the hitter. I completely cannot trust Oliver Perez. I just cannot do it.

Andy (Toronto)

How many steals for Carlos Gomez this year? Does he kill me in every other category?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

I think he could be a candidate for 40, and yes, I think he'll kill you in every other category. Still has lots of work to do as a hitter, and he'll bat in the bottom third of the lineup.

Walnuts (Minneapolis, MN)

Was that a Jon Lovitz reference?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

Which one?

Trevor (Billerica,MA [via mobile]

Tristan, need help ASAP please! Do you trade Tulo, Chris Davis & Ollie Perez for Sandoval, Kemp & Alexei Ramirez?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

Ohhhhh yes. And I like Chris Davis too!

Brian (Tulsa, OK)

I'm with you on cereal out of the box. Is Jay Bruce at $19.00 in the same league keeper worthy?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Do they still make "Oh's"? That was a great cereal, too. Again, the finger-food aspect. Gotta be almost a meal on its own. And yes, I would keep Bruce for that price. His power is legit. I can see 30 homers easy.

Dan (Lexington, KY)

Over/under on Brad Penny winning 10 games this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Well I'm not a fan, so I'm betting the under. Besides, the point earlier about Masterson and Buchholz. Oh, and Smoltz. Too many reasons he won't get there.

John (NY)

Your last mixed mock draft was March 2nd?!?!?! C'mon ESPN you gotta do better than that. We need updated mocks and rankings before this weekend.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

You'll have 'em, don't worry. We don't forget about you!

Seahawks (Anacortes, Washington)

A starting pitcher or two that you feel may have slipped below the "radar," but will likely have a major fantasy impact this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

I'm starting to feel like I'm Ubaldo Jimenez's biggest fan.

Cody Philly

THC, can you rank these players, Maybin, Gomez, Lind, Dukes, A. Jones. Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

I'm going Adam Jones, Elijah Dukes, Cameron Maybin, Adam Lind, Carlos Gomez.

Old folks (On the porches of their homes)

Watching grass grow is more exciting than this chat.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

Old folks do enjoy watching grass grow. It's a favorite pastime.

Shawn (Cape Cod, MA)

When filling in your reserve spots, would you rather safe arms like Maholm and Jurrjens, potential saves guys like McClung and Batista, or upside guys like Cahill?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

Depends on the league. In the experts leagues that are NL-only and 13 teams, I'll take whatever I can get. If it's like a 12-team mixed league with a deep bench, again, I take a mix. Balance out these things. If it's ESPN standard? Well, in those it's not hard to get guys to plug holes, so I rarely keep "insurance" types or handcuffs. I'm mindful of the waiver wire. I'd probably go with the upside guys, like Trevor Cahill. Matt Wieters belongs on a bench in every ESPN standard league, for instance.

GP (Boston)

Who has more value over the next 3 seasons...ARod or Miggy C.?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

I think almost anyone out there is going to tell you Miguel Cabrera, especially in light of A-Rod's surgery. So am I. But I'd have said it a month ago too.

Sam (alaska)

Inge qualifies at Catcher, does that make him worthwhile?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

Batting-average killer. Just giving you advanced warning. He'll be owned in most every AL-only league though.

Garrett

Morning Tristan! I posed this question to EK yesterday, and now I'll pose it to you: I'm going to use the Labadini strategy in an auction draft this weekend. Any general advice? Who are some solid $1 SPs and RPs to target? Thanks Buddy!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

Not a big fan of the "I asked this yesterday and now I'm asking you" thing ... didn't you get your answer already? But the one tip I will give those using Labadini: I'm in favor of it the more shallow the league is. But if you do it, it should be a league with no minimum for innings, and you must win ERA and WHIP. MUST.

Jimmy (Quebec)

As his biggest fan is Ubaldo your choice over other 5th starters like Wandy, Parra, Volsted, and even Zim the phenom?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Yes. But Manny Parra stands out to me too.

Patrick-St. Louis

Hey Tristan- 10 team nl only auction league how high would you go on Albert?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

Probably $42 or so. I would have to run the numbers to legitimately know what he's worth in that specific format -- I usually play 12- or 13-team NL-only. But I can say that I probably wouldn't be upset and felt like I overspent on Albert Pujols until I got to $45. That's when you know you took the bidding too far.

Adam (NYC)

Tristan - thanks for the answer, but I was talking about Kendry Morales

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

Probably feel similarly about him as I do Travis Ishikawa. Though he probably has a steeper batting-average downside and a slightly greater power upside of the two.

Michael (Milwaukee, WI)

what's the best way to stop those pukebag friends in my league from streaming pitchers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

Ouch, such harsh words, Michael! I advise people who don't like streaming to deepen the player pool in your league. Streaming is part of the game, and I'm sorry, but I agree with those who say it is a legitimate strategy. If you want to play a 10-team mixed league with shallow benches that is your decision, but it opens you up to that perfectly acceptable strategy. And I don't do innings or games caps or a limit on pickups. Don't like 'em. Want to rein in streaming? Go AL- or NL-only, or add teams to your mixed league, or go with a bench of 10 players. Eat into that player pool, that's the best way to do it.

john dearborn michigan

does johnny damon still perform well with all his assests froze in that money scam?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

I don't think that has much of any bearing on his 2009. His moving down to second in the order might mean he runs a few less times -- maybe 3-5 -- but then he's also in a contract year. He's not going to want to change his game at all. Maybe his RBI total bumps up equally to make up for any possible loss in steals. I really see a negligible difference as a result of his batting order, or this scam issue.

Bla

Just a tip for everyone trying to stop streaming pitchers. In my league we limit the number of moves to 30.....but we do give free moves if you replace someone on the DL. It works great!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

Another option. I personally do not like it, though I admire that you recognize the need for free moves to replace DL players. That is the primary reason I have a gripe with a cap on add/drops, because luck isn't balanced in the health department.

Pete (NJ)

You see Carpenter winning 15 gms and the comeback player award?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

I have nothing to back this on and is a complete and utter gut instinct, but I can absolutely see that happening.

Tom - NY

Someone froze Johnny's assets?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

Yeah, there was some sort of scam, story was originally in the New York Post in February. Xavier Nady was affected too. Don't know if there was any update, frankly, I didn't feel it had any fantasy relevance.

Dom (Toronto)

What is your projected stat line on Ian Kinsler?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

145 games, .290 BA, 20 HRs, 25 SBs, 65 RBIs, 105 R's.

Coco Crisp - KC

So you love cereal Mr. Cockcroft? Do you love me this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

I'm only cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs. (Not really, never liked it.) I wouldn't say "love," but I don't hate you either, Coco. I'd say solid, decent season, .280 BA, 25 steals.

James (Newport, RI)

Wait Damon is batting second? So jeter is the leadoff?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

That's the report out of today's Newsday. At least right now, the Yankees are leading off Derek Jeter, and batting Johnny Damon second. And the paper thinks it's the way the team will begin the year. The speculated reason: It'll break up the lefties from 9-1-2, with Brett Gardner the likely No. 9.

Sam (seattle)

Does Lyon hold the closer job in Detroit or should we grab a more talented closer in waiting like Corpas, Ray or Gregg?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

I think Brandon Lyon will hold the closer job and be a little better than you think, but I'd be keeping an eye on Kevin Gregg. His potential in the closer role in Chicago would be greater than Lyon's in Detroit.

Steve (Miami)

Does Scott Lewis have value in a standard league? What about in a keeper league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

No, I'd say probably not, a little beneath the cut, but AL-only owners absolutely must know this name. At the least he has matchups potential. Seems like a safe ratios guy who might surprise.

Andrew(New York)

How early is too early to take Chase Utley in a mixed league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

I think anything over about ninth or 10th overall is too high. But I can build the case he belongs in the end of the first round. He's a steal if he lingers deep into the second.

cola

please rank guthrie meche hanson and cahill

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

I'm not a Jeremy Guthrie fan. Gil Meche is the clear top choice here. Then it's probably Guthrie, if only because he's a definite starter right now. Then Hanson, then Cahill.

Nelson Cruz (Texas)

You not a believer are you?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

No. The downside is too steep, and Marlon Byrd lingering as the fourth outfielder means your leash is short as it can be. That said, I do admit you've got legitimate 30-homer power, so it doesn't mean I'm entirely avoiding you on draft day. I'm just not spending what the market seems to feel your value is right now.

Don (CHarleston)

Tristan - Please help me out - you are the ULTIMATE ARBITER - should I keep Ervin at $6 or drop him for more of a sure thing, like Danks at $6 or Josh Johnson at $8. What would you do?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

I like all three comparative to the prices, but John Danks for $6 seems like an outrageous steal to me. Pops right off the page.

JAB (NY)

Better D'back this year, Upton or Young?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Chris Young. I'm buying.

Johnny (LA)

Who would you keep? Markakis 6th round, CC 3rd round, or Billingsley 15th round

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

All fair values, but I love Chad Billingsley in the 15th round. Wow. I've got him way, way ahead of that in my rankings.

Josh Anderson

Why does no one talk about me? I'm AWESOME, and I'm going to steal 50 bases and hit 10 home runs, all with a reasonable average. DRAFT ME.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

I'm going to be your biggest fan if you do that, Josh, because it might single-handedly win me LABR. I don't think it's going to happen, though I picked you for $6 because I do think you're a nice cheap source of steals in an NL-only league.

berto

does hermedia break out

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

I think "break out" is a bit strong, but I'm willing to give him one more chance. Then he goes the way of Rickie Weeks and I start saying "he is what he is." (And then, of course, he has a year like Adrian Beltre's that monster contract year in L.A.)

Josh Fields (Chicago)

I get my second chance and it is my job to lose. Do I finally live up to expectations or follow the route on many other prospects and disappoint.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

I actually don't hate Josh Fields this year. Serious power, and positively nobody is talking about him. He's got a starting job and the park to get him back on track, so I'm curious what he can do. I'd take a shot on him in an AL-only league.

Drew (Buffalo)

You have the first pick, who do you take?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

Albert Pujols. Best mix of safety, production and consistency.

Charles (NV)

Here's a toss up: Cueto or Jimenez?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

Very good toss-up choices, Charles, meaning I think this is close. It's Johnny Cueto for me.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

OK folks, time to wrap things up for the day. Thank you for all your questions, and sorry if I didn't get to yours. Take care everyone, and best of luck to you in your drafts this weekend!