KC Joyner

  (4:00 PM)

Good afternoon! It's time for some football!

Justin Behling (Boyceville, WI)

Who is the better QB, Aaron Rodgers or Jay Cutler?

KC Joyner

  (4:01 PM)

Based on last year's numbers, I would take Rodgers hands down. His YPA, success percentage, vertical numbers and bad decision percentages all fare well or were better than Cutler's.

KC Joyner

  (4:02 PM)

And, given the history of Chicago vs. GB QBs, that should come as no surprise.

Dree ( Hickory, NC )

KC, What do you think the chances are of the Broncos looking to draft a QB such as Sanchez or Freeman early on in this draft? I think they have way too many holes to fill on defense, but I have seen too many analysts projecting them picking a QB. Your thoughts?

KC Joyner

  (4:02 PM)

I'm with the idea that they pick a QB. McDaniels will want to hang his hat on developing a young QB and there are enough prospects that he should be able to do that.

Matt

KC, how about some metrics on how inaccurate all of these mock drafts turn out to be?

KC Joyner

  (4:03 PM)

Matt, you don't need me to run those! There are plenty of mock draft bashers already hard at work on the Internet.

Zach (Jerusalem, Israel)

Shalom KC. Can you evaluate the following older receivers who seem available one way or the other: Plax, Ocho Cinco, T.J. Housh., Tory Holt (or any I haven't mentioned here). What do your metrics predict for these WR's?

KC Joyner

  (4:05 PM)

I hate to lump all of these guys together because of their varied skills over the years, but every single one of them is coming off of a really subpar metric season. Older players typically don't bounce back from those types of seasons so I'm of the mindset that, at best, only one of these guys will be able to post significant improvements this year.

PT (Franklin, NC)

Who fits the Raiders offense better, Jeremy Maclin or Micheal Crabtree? Isn't Maclin too much like Johnnie Lee Higgins?

KC Joyner

  (4:05 PM)

I'd agree with that. And as talented as Crabtree is, you'd have to take him even if his skills did overlap someone on your roster.

Darrick(Durham,NC)

KC, what do you think Dawkins can really do this year?

KC Joyner

  (4:07 PM)

I think he'll help Denver patch up some of their over the top coverage issues. In other words, he'll be more of a true FS and not the box FS that Philly had him as.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

In your opinion, after the draft will the Vikings have the worst QBs in the NFC North?

KC Joyner

  (4:08 PM)

Not in 2009 they won't. As much as I like Stafford, I don't he'd have a rough year one if they put him in as an immediate starter. And I still like Jackson if he can keep playing like he did late last year.

KL (philly

re Dawkins, as a true FS, he got totally exposed last year. i'm a huge dwak fan, but i bet the broncos are very disappointed

KC Joyner

  (4:09 PM)

KL, I think the issue on Dawk is if he is healthy. Early last year he was the same great player we saw in years past but he started to slow as the year progressed and I think it might have been injury related.

Chuck (Cleveland OH)

If you were a betting man, would you bet on Braylon being traded this year? And if so, is there a sleeper team out there that may pull off a suprise deal for him?

KC Joyner

  (4:10 PM)

If I was betting I'd put the money down on that. Mangini doesn't want to have to develop players (he's from the George Allen school) and Edwards, despite his talent, still needs a lot of development. I'm still thinking it could be the Giants.

Broad Street Brian Philly

I love Dawk too, but watching him in Man to Man vs any decent WR or TE was hard. Watching a first down catch and then a big hit gets old fast.

KC Joyner

  (4:11 PM)

Brian hits it on the head. Denver had some success in getting a couple of more years out of John Lynch at FS than I thought they would, so that's why I'm thinking they can make this a go.

Majeed

KC, What about Braylon to Miami for a #2? Or is Miami gonna get Anquan?

KC Joyner

  (4:12 PM)

I'd lean towards Miami looks to the draft to upgrade at WR. Plus, based on what I've seen of their metrics, they may not be in as bad of shape at WR as is generally thought.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

And by late you mean before he ran into a playoff team, right? (I'm not counting the Giants mail-it-in game that T-Jax almost lost through poor clock management.)

KC Joyner

  (4:13 PM)

OK, I've got to give you that. But, as Tom Jackson is fond of saying, those other games count too!

Cole (Kansas City)

How do the Chiefs pass receivers, Gonzalez, Bowe, Bradley and Engram stack up for Matt Cassel?

KC Joyner

  (4:15 PM)

Gonzalez had the best metrics of any TE last year. Engram did well in short passes (what's new there) and Bradley did surprisingly well overall. Bowe had a very bad year metric-wise, so there is room for improvement.

Justin Behling (Boyceville, WI)

Is Ryan Grant an above average HB, or is Brandon Jackson the answer in Green Bay

KC Joyner

  (4:15 PM)

Every time I've broken Grant down, I find that he does more with less blocking than maybe any RB in the league. I'd stick with him but Jackson is fairly close in that department, so a split backfield might be the best fit.

Tomwit NJ [via mobile]

As a scientist you know water is the universal solvent. Cry babies dilute team harmony. That being said where do you think Plax will wind up?

KC Joyner

  (4:17 PM)

Very insightful football science there, Tomwit! As far as Plax goes, I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't play in 2009 both due to legal issues and to his decreased on-field performance.

Robert (Latrobe, PA)

If we assume for a minute that the Giants don't go out and get one of the available receivers, how do you think Steve Smith would fare as a #2 or #1 (shudder)?

KC Joyner

  (4:18 PM)

Robert, Smith posted good numbers at the short and medium depth levels last year. He's not the burner you need as a #1 but if Hixon can fill that role, I'm good with Smith as a #2.

Robert (Latrobe, PA)

Do you have any metrics that define a pass-rusher's success based on the talent around him? Surely Mario Williams would be first in the league in that category by a wide margin.

KC Joyner

  (4:19 PM)

I don't have metrics from that perspective but I can say that for the first time Williams was putting up consistent one-on-one sacks last year. It was the first time he's done that and a good sign that he is finally playing up to his ability.

brian (de)

So who was the best Miami receiver based on metrics? And what well known name in the NFL do his metrics compare to?

KC Joyner

  (4:20 PM)

Try Ted Ginn at #23 in overall YPA and #32 in vertical YPA. Vertically he equaled Santana Moss and overall he was in league with Patrick Crayton.

Justin Behling (Boyceville, WI)

Hypothetically speaking, how well would Julius Peppers or Jason Taylor fit in the new 3-4 defensive scheme in Green Bay at OLB?

KC Joyner

  (4:22 PM)

Peppers is so good that he would fit in anywhere. Taylor has to be lined up at RE to do well and since that is Kampman's spot (if memory serves me correct), Taylor wouldn't be a good fit there.

Tim (El Cajon, CA)

KC, according to your metrics, will Cutler spend more time on his back looking up at the sky in Chicago this year than he did in Denver or no?

KC Joyner

  (4:23 PM)

He'll spend a heckuva lot more time handing off, I can tell you that. He led the league in vertical passes by a mile last year and Chicago isn't going to put the ball up on those passes 234 times like Denver had Cutler do last year.

steve (seattle)

This question is about next years draft - Wouldn't it make more sense for Detroit to take front seven players then skilled players like QB in this draft. Or in your opinion is it better to put a year under your belt as a rookie QB

KC Joyner

  (4:24 PM)

You've really got to start at QB. Miami built a quality O line and defensive front seven but if they didn't have Pennington last year, there is no way they win the AFC East. Detroit doesn't have a Pennington on their roster so they have to go for QB.

Sarah (Denver)

It's such a cliche, but do you consider Reggie Bush a better athlete than football player at this point?

KC Joyner

  (4:26 PM)

I've mentioned in one of the Scientific Football books that I see Bush as being rather like a modern-day Charley Taylor. Taylor went from being a good RB to a Hall of Fame wideout. I think Bush could take that same career path but has it stuck in his mind that he wants to be a RB.

Justin Behling (Boyceville, WI)

No actually Dom Capers put Kampman at OLB. But while we are on this subject, which NFL prospect would best fit in the Packers' new system?

KC Joyner

  (4:27 PM)

That's why I put that out there, as I couldn't remember where Kampman ended up. I don't think there are any name prospects out there now and even if there were, I can't see GB signing them given their aversion to FAs.

Paul (Denver)

With that being said about who's better Cutler and Rodgers. Isn't it safe to say it's like comparing apples to oranges in '08? Cutler had the worst defense, and running game.

KC Joyner

  (4:29 PM)

Paul, I just can't get Cutler's consistent 5% bad decision rate. He posted that percentage every year except his last in Denver, and in that year he was near the 5% mark and still had the highest percentage in the league. Rodgers ran an offense that was nearly as vertical and posted a bad decision rate nearly half of Cutler's.

Mike (mpls, MN)

I suppose Romo, Manning and Campbell should be lumped with TJack, as Philly shut them down too. But, context isn't exactly a skill most fans have....

KC Joyner

  (4:29 PM)

That's an interesting way to look at it!

Jim (Kansas City, MO)

Seemed like Glen Dorsey was constantly double-teamed last year...but I don't have access to coach's tape. Should Chief's fans be down on him? And, where does Dorsey fit in a 3-4 defense? Thank you for answering.

KC Joyner

  (4:31 PM)

I've had a chance to break down 4 Chiefs games and Dorsey had frequent problems at the POA many times. I have trouble seeing him as a 3-4 NT but, physically speaking, he could be a solid two-gap DE if he gets his run stuffing skills in order.

Corey (Washington DC)

What does your scientific insight tell you about Greg Olsen and how well he may do with Jay Cutler?

KC Joyner

  (4:33 PM)

Olsen finally started to step up more as a flex TE last year. Cutler had a great rapport with his flex TE in Denver (Scheffler) so this should be a great fit for both.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Wait, did I just spot my first T-Jax apologist? That's rarer than a Braylon Edwards game with no drops.

KC Joyner

  (4:33 PM)

Let's all be on the lookout for Bigfoot!

brian (de)

Based solely on your metrics which QB was the most over and under rated in 2008?

KC Joyner

  (4:34 PM)

Underrated I'd go with Matt Schaub. He had the best vertical numbers in the league and yet you don't hear him being mentioned even in most people's top 15. Cutler has to be the most overrated, as people saw a volume of passes and assumed it was quality and not quantity.

BSB (philly)

As I watch the Giants o line, the only player that I think is really good is Snee, and that the unit is better than the whole of it's parts. Do the LT metrics for the G-men stack up? Is Diehl that good?

KC Joyner

  (4:36 PM)

I'm about halfway through the NYG O line metrics and have to say that they all look pretty good. I'm sure a lot of it is the system, as Pat Flaherty is probably the best O line coach in the NFL, but they do all grade out well individually in what is largely a man blocking run O.

Josh (Houston, TX)

With new safties and help in the backfield what are the chances Champ Bailey has a comeback season with less injuries and more productive numbers for the Broncos?

KC Joyner

  (4:37 PM)

The Bailey of old could have a dominant coverage season even had he played in last year's Lions secondary. His big issue is health. I wouldn't put it past him to get back to his old self but he is 31 and that's not an age where a bounceback is assured.

Robert (Latrobe, PA)

What can we expect from Jim Leonhard this year?

KC Joyner

  (4:38 PM)

Leonhard made a lot of good plays last year both on ST and in coverage, but he was also beaten in coverage a lot more often than generally thought. He should really be used as a nickel box safety.

Kevin (Austin TX)

KC, what do your numbers tell us about Antonio Gates? Given his age do you see a statistical dropoff from him this year?

KC Joyner

  (4:40 PM)

The TE position is so depleted right now that Gates still was good volume-wise but his SYPA ranking was 15th. He should improve on that this year.

Jeff (NYC)

As I watch the Eagles, the only player that stands out is Westbrook (when he plays) and that the team is more than the sum of its parts. Do the metrics for the Iggles stack up? Is Reid that good?

KC Joyner

  (4:42 PM)

Reid has always been that good. He was able to get Donovan to rank in the top 13 in vertical YPA despite not having great WRs. They also ran the ball quite well later in the year, which shows Andy was willing to pound the ball when need be. I like their 2009 chances for another playoff berth.

Rich Rodriguez (Ann Arbor, MI)

KC, I just wanted to tell everyone that people who don't think football is a science need to get lives.

KC Joyner

  (4:43 PM)

Rich, with the way your team played last year, it sounds like you could use some football science! Call me and I'll see if I can help.

Jake Klipp (Milwaukee, WI)

Talk to me goose... Fantasy related question. I know we always try to justify picking Lee Evans way before he deserves to go. If you added up the stats from the guys playing #2 to TO's #1, does he help out his second guy? Buffalo isn't gonna be looking for someone to fill that deep route spot, since Evans is a stud. Could his numbers signifigantly improve playing over the top of Owens? Thanks Doc.

KC Joyner

  (4:45 PM)

Jake, Buffalo QBs threw the 2nd fewest vertical passes in the league. That will change with Owens in the lineup but the question is how many of those throws will he see vs. Evans? Between them it should be around 120 and if Owens insists on a 70-50 or 80-40 split, Evans won't improve fantasy-wise. If Evans sees the upper end of that, then he'll be a fantasy sleeper big time.

Mike (San Diego)

KC, Mad Mike and I have a bet, I say the Iggles win more games this year than the Texans...whose side of this bet would you take?

KC Joyner

  (4:46 PM)

That is a close one. I'll take Philly if only because they have a history of winning more than Houston, but I would not be at all surprised to see both teams post 10 wins.

Travis, Canada

KC, what do you think of the Yahoo Sports article that has certain NFL clubs using Facebook, by creating fake accounts/profiles to check out potential draftees, similar to what a normal employer might?

KC Joyner

  (4:47 PM)

I'm all for it. It's not as if they are doing private investigations on players, as Facebook is a public space.

Bo (Honolulu, HI)

Howzit KC, how bad was the Raiders O-Line last year and can Khalif Barnes play LT?

KC Joyner

  (4:49 PM)

Howzit back at you! I'm about 1/4-1/2 into the Raiders and can say Gallery had maybe his best year and letting Grove go was a huge mistake. He had the best season of any FA C. If you want to see more specifics, just check out this week's ESPN The Mag NFL Department, as I wrote a piece for them on this very subject.

Majeed

I say Miami wins more games than both Philly & Houston COMBINED!

KC Joyner

  (4:50 PM)

Majeed, you don't have to say such things. We know you bleed Aqua and Orange!

Justin Behling (Boyceville, WI)

Who do ya got for the NFC North? Green Bay is not getting a lot of love as people forget they were in NFC Championship Title game 2 years ago.

KC Joyner

  (4:51 PM)

I actually do like GB there. The Vikes have more talent but I've become somewhat convinced Rodgers is the real deal. They need to shore up that D but otherwise they are in pretty good shape.

Kyle Orton (Denver, CO)

Am I really the answer to Denver's QB problems? What are the chances I land the starting gig in Denver and do well in McDaniel's system?

KC Joyner

  (4:52 PM)

I think you are a short-term solution for the moment. I'm still of the mindset McDaniels wants to groom a young QB and, unless you show something on a consistent basis that you only showed on a sporadic basis in Chicago, you won't be that guy.

Bo (Honolulu, HI)

Ok thanks KC now Im depressed. Is Satele any good? I heard he'd fit better in Cable's zone blocking scheme than Grove did.

KC Joyner

  (4:53 PM)

Satele isn't nearly as bad as some think. His win percentages were solid but I think Miami wanted a bit more from the position. He'll be a bit of a downgrade from Grove but should do just fine for Cable.

joe(NYC)

please tell me the jets will at least kick the tires on plaxico.

KC Joyner

  (4:54 PM)

That would be fun to see Plaxico jump ship to the other side of NY, wouldn't it!

Corey (Seattle WA)

Is Robert Meachem that bad? I read a rumor that he will have trouble making the Saint's roster this year.

KC Joyner

  (4:55 PM)

It's hard to say because he never gets on the field enough to find out. That's got to be the Saints issue with him, as physically speaking he's obviously NFL caliber.

Dave (MN)

Mr. Adrian Peterson wants to play at 230 pounds this year. Any opinion? Coach Know-It-All Childress is against it, therefore I am all for it!

KC Joyner

  (4:56 PM)

I'd be concerned that adding 13 pounds would slow that breakaway burst that makes him such a threat. I'd be for it, however, if he can add some pounds to his hands so he doesn't fumble the ball so much.

Steve (Rochester, NY)

Is Zach Miller a breakout candidate this year?

KC Joyner

  (4:57 PM)

Have you been getting an advance copy of my ESPN Fantasy Mag material? (Just kidding!). I just did my analysis on tight ends for them and couldn't agree more on Miller as a breakout candidate.

Justin Behling (Boyceville, WI)

Could you analyze Greg Jennings for me? I feel he's been robbed of a Pro Bowl selection two years in a row now. Where does he rank among the NFL's best? Thanks

KC Joyner

  (4:59 PM)

Two seasons ago I thought he was just a product of playing with Brett Favre. Now that he has ranked 8th in overall YPA with Rodgers behind center, I couldn't agree more that he is an unrewarded Pro Bowl caliber wideout.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Wouldn't 'fat fingers' make it harder to hang onto the ball though, KC? I think I'd want to see the weight in his arms to really cover up the pigskin.

KC Joyner

  (5:00 PM)

Yeah, fat fingers would do that but I'm figuring that whatever more Peterson is making, he's got to be doing it to stop the fumbles. If he's focusing on surviving the hits, he should refocus on ball handling. And if the hits are causing the fumbles, he needs to ask Childress to rotate him out a bit more.

Travis, Canada

KC, let me ask, whom takes a shot on Mike Vick this fall?

KC Joyner

  (5:00 PM)

Whoever needs a shot in the arm ticket sales wise.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Which receiver benefits most from the addition of Cutler in Chicago?

KC Joyner

  (5:02 PM)

I'm still with the Olsen pick. Hester could see an uptick as well given his vertical prowess. Well, I've got more tape reviews to do so I've got to jet. Before I go, I just want to mention that Scientific Football 2009 is now available for pre-order at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all next week!