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Keith Law

  (1:01 PM)

KlawChat: Now you're going to have to learn to read.

John (Lazytown, CT)

I wish I had your job. Two articles a month? Maybe you'll write three in May and REALLY break a sweat.

Keith Law

  (1:02 PM)

I like that it's my fault you're not smart enough to figure out how to use an RSS reader. Or to just check the draft blog.

Brian (Omaha)

Is Alex White holding his draft position with a less than dominating year?

Keith Law

  (1:02 PM)

He's been pretty dominant of late - the outing against Miami was a big boost to his stock. I don't think he gets out of the top nine, certainly.

Timmy L., San Francisco, CA

When are we going to see a mock draft from you guys??

Keith Law

  (1:04 PM)

It is way too early to post a "mock draft" that assigns players to teams. I can (and do) speak in general terms - team A likes these few players, player X won't get out of the top 20 - but anyone who posts a mock draft this far ahead is just making it up, because I'd say 3/4 of teams are nowhere close to narrowing their candidate pool to the point where a mock draft would have any credibility.

Frank

Will the H1N1 2009 scare have any effect on scouting for the upcoming draft? I know Texas has canceled high school baseball, so taht has to cause some consternation.

Keith Law

  (1:06 PM)

Their schedule was close to done, so it's not going to have a huge impact. Most if not all teams have already had multiple looks at Miller, Purke, etc. Someone like Glaeseman could be affected because he missed a lot of time in March, so teams might only have two looks at him, not enough to take him with a high pick.

Closet A's fan (NY)

What do you think of Phil Hughes performance last night? Can he keep it up?

Keith Law

  (1:07 PM)

Looked pretty good, not outstanding, but much improved. The life on the two-seamer addresses one of the concerns I had about him in the past (four-seamer was pretty true). And he pitched out of a jam that I don't think he would have escaped last year. Plus Detroit has a good lineup. Cautious optimism.

Eric (Atlanta)

What is Zach Wheeler's ceiling?

Keith Law

  (1:07 PM)

#1/2 starter.

Kevin (San Diego)

Klaw, much has been made of teams struggling to separate the crop of players after Strasburg. Is the next tier above or below average in comparison to recent drafts?

Keith Law

  (1:08 PM)

Below.

Grant (Chicago)

Your public persona includes little sentimentality, but do you ever find yourself drawn to and invested in particular prospects? I'll confess that myself, after having traded for, promoted, and deployed Dexter Fowler in my keeper league, I'm ready to name any future child "Dexter".

Keith Law

  (1:09 PM)

Absolutely. The way my job has evolved, I have more contact with players now than I expected, especially amateurs, and most of them are good kids. So I definitely have my favorites, and I pull for them; I just can't let that color my evaluations.

Rod (Chicago, IL)

Are all the Cal League parks launch pads? I know High Desert and Lancaster are awful pitching parks; are they all like that?

Keith Law

  (1:10 PM)

No, but the league as a whole has always been good for home runs and (oddly enough) strikeouts.

Keith Law

  (1:12 PM)

Quick timeout here...

Keith Law

  (1:20 PM)

Sorry, a high school coach with whom I've been playing phone tag just called.

Chuck (Saratoga Springs, NY)

Is Nate Freiman from Duke a legitimate 1B prospect and any idea when he might come off the board during the draft?

Keith Law

  (1:20 PM)

I don't see him as a prospect. He could be drafted later as an org player (to fill out a minor league roster). He was up to 89 in high school but hurt his arm his freshman year.

Mike (Mpls)

There are people on the Twins blogs claiming that Mauer's return will lower the team's ERA by over a run. That has got to be the most ridiculous statement ever, doesn't it? What would a catcher be worth that could do that? $50MM per year? Sometimes I wonder why I go on some of these blogs....and yet I do.

Keith Law

  (1:21 PM)

You are correct. That is absolutely ridiculous.

Andrew (Philly)

How awesome is Chase Utley? Hip surgery was supposed to keep him out until the end of May, instead he is ready for the start of the season and is dominating as usual.

Keith Law

  (1:22 PM)

I said last year I thought he was the best player in baseball. That kind of production and defensive value from a player up the middle is incredibly valuable.

Matt (LA, CA)

As a lawyer, I'm looking to the Law for guidance. In his prime, would vlad gurerro have benefitted from plate discipline? I believe that his aggressiveness and ability to drive bad balls made him elite and the added plate discipline would have hindered both. My friend believes that he would have been an even better hitter had he been taught to be more patient at the plate. Which way do the scales of justice tilt in this dispute?

Keith Law

  (1:23 PM)

It seems absurd to argue that he could have been better, doesn't it? He was a great bad-ball hitter - he could take a ball out of the zone and turn it into a hit as well as anyone I've ever seen. It's possible your friend is right, but that's an uphill argument.

Mark (Moscow, ID)

Are there any college bats in this year's draft comparable to Smoak/Wallace/Alonso/Alvarez?

Keith Law

  (1:24 PM)

No. Ackley's the best, and his position is still up in the air.

Nick KC

If you began a franchise today, which SP would you take before Greinke?

Keith Law

  (1:24 PM)

Halladay.

Pujols (St. Louis)

Sure I dont play a premium position, but my hitting dominance still makes most valuable player in all of baseball right?

Keith Law

  (1:25 PM)

If I was starting a team (and playing for right now) and had the first pick, I'd take Utley. Pujols would be second.

Ryan (Farmington, CT)

This might be a deeper player but Louisville's 3B Chris Dominguez. Thoughts on him? Does he still have a hole in his swing the size of a small city?

Keith Law

  (1:26 PM)

It's bigger than Farmington. I do not think he'll make enough contact to be a big leaguer.

Braves fan (ATL)

Wheeler or Matzek?

Keith Law

  (1:27 PM)

I really could go either way. Wheeler has more upside, Matzek has more polish. I think I'm a little more comfortable with Matzek, but at the same time, I've never seen Wheeler and not been impressed.

nick (albuquerque, nm)

Mr. Law, is there anyone in the draft that might slip because of representation (boras) or concern they might not sign at all?

Keith Law

  (1:28 PM)

Sure - Andy Oliver, Brian Goodwin, and Levon Washington are all sliding on boards now because of performance/signability concerns (meaning that their performance isn't good enough to justify the anticipated price - we called those players "unsignable for worth" in Toronto).

Chris (Dallas, TX)

Provided that he learns to throw the "strike", does Ryan Perry look like a future 9th inning guy to you?

Keith Law

  (1:28 PM)

Yes.

John (Chicago)

How good do you think Mike Leake can be in the majors, and where do you see him going in the draft?

Keith Law

  (1:31 PM)

#2/3 starter, goes top 20, probably doesn't get past Arizona at 16/17 if he even makes it that far.

Eric (london)

We do watch baseball on this side of the pond, doesn't brett gardners grind it out mentality and hard nose play have a ripple affect on the team?

Keith Law

  (1:32 PM)

$5.

Logan (Grand Junction, CO)

How much $$ does a senior sign get as far as a range goes??

Keith Law

  (1:34 PM)

A true "senior sign" guy who's just coming in to fill out a roster would get $1000. That doesn't mean he never reaches the majors - Ryan Roberts was a $1000 guy for us in Toronto - but such a player really has no leverage and is expected to take the money just for the chance to play.

Jim (Wilmington, DE)

Klaw, I gotta admit I wasn't sold on the Ibanez deal when it happened. But, do you still think Burrell is the better player after his first month in Philly?

Keith Law

  (1:35 PM)

I love all the Philly fans declaring the Ibanez contract a huge success roughly 4.3% of the way through the contract.

Drew (Memphis, TN)

Funny, I wish I had John's job, where either you don't work at noon on a Thursday or you're allowed to post on a live chat during work. Question: With Tampa Bay's pitching not quite up to last year's standards, how long until we see Price in the bigs? Thanks.

Keith Law

  (1:37 PM)

I imagine he'll be up by Memorial Day.

Brian (Wantagh, NY)

Has dan the angry nats fan finally put the paper bag over his head? I havent seen him on in awhile

Keith Law

  (1:37 PM)

Well, it's hard to argue that I've been excessively critical of the Nats, given how they've played and what they've done.

Chris (Chicago, IL)

Keith, Isn't the senior sign level you mentioned different from organization to organization? I know a couple of people who signed for $5,000 as true senior signs (I believe that was the Astros/Yankees policy). Then a bunch more that received $2,500 from various organizations.

Keith Law

  (1:39 PM)

Depends on when they were taken. A senior who is taken in the fifth round will be paid roughly 30% below slot (the "senior discount," or, as one agent calls it, "senior %$and! you money"). Even in the eighth or ninth round, a senior taken there is probably still considered enough of a prospect to be given more than $1000.

Peter (Williamsburg, VA)

It seems that no one has a real clear idea of how the top 10 will go after Strasburg. What are the chances that Aaron Crow will still be available at the #10 slot, and if he is, would the Nats draft him there? Is there a precedent for something like that happening? I feel like there's a lot of potential for drama here.

Keith Law

  (1:39 PM)

The last I had heard, he had not signed the consent for reselection card, so the Nats would not be able to take him. I also don't think he gets there unless he throws poorly in May.

Dan (Vermont)

I'm surprised to see Tony Sipp getting his cup of coffee - or sipp of coffee if you will har har - so soon. What are your thoughts on him? What's his ceiling? Thanks for chatting!

Keith Law

  (1:40 PM)

He threw very well when I saw him in Arizona - above-average short reliever.

Andy (LA)

You really aren't going to talk about A-Rod today, are you?

Keith Law

  (1:41 PM)

What the hell do I want to talk about A-Rod for? He's not playing. A writer who has been after him for years put out more allegations, some serious and some absolutely absurd (he's not a great tipper????). It's not a baseball topic, and if I'm doing non-baseball topics, let's talk food or books or something that's actually worth the expenditure of electrons.

Bryan

What's the name of the potato chip you rave about from Trader Joe's?

Keith Law

  (1:42 PM)

Exactly. I don't remember the exact name, but they're barbecue-flavored and air-popped rather than fried, in a bright orange bag. I don't buy them as often as i used to because the bag would usually be empty by the time I got home, and it's only a four-minute drive.

Patrick (Cheyenne, WY)

Hey Keith am I missing the reason Ryan Ludwick does not start every day is his defense that bad because he is having a very good season even though he has cooled off a bit but I just dont understand why Chris Duncan might get as many at bats as he does?

Keith Law

  (1:42 PM)

Ask his daddy.

Tony (West Chester)

Is the offensive output the Phillies have gotten out of Lou Marson (.235 average, 7 k's in 17 ab's) what to expect or is just overmatched because of his inexperience?

Keith Law

  (1:43 PM)

I wouldn't judge him on such a small sample, but I don't like his swing at all. I think he's going to hit the ball on the ground way too often, and that only works (if ever) for a speed guy.

Matt (WI)

Can Parra turn it around this season and create a dominant 1-2 punch with Gallardo?

Keith Law

  (1:44 PM)

If he's healthy, yes, but Parra's performance this year and his medical rap sheet have me worried. I haven't heard anything specific on him - I'm just triangulating.

Zach (NYC)

Why are Mets fans so crazy that they are calling for Wright to be traded over a lousy April? If you look at 07, his April was very similar, He'll rebound right?

Keith Law

  (1:44 PM)

Yes, he'll rebound. And Mets fans are just crazy, period.

sim (stockton, ca)

please settle a debate for me. my idiotic friend refuses to believe me that travis ishikawa with .224/.264/.286 and 0 home runs in 49 at bats is not starter worthy. i realize it is a small sample size but considering ishikawa was a fringe prospect at best it does not look good.

Keith Law

  (1:46 PM)

Agreed, more on history than the small '09 sample. Sandoval ends up at first anyway.

Chris (Lorton, VA)

Why is Brian Matusz in A ball? it seems to me as if he wouldn't have anything to prove down there and could be much better served in AA or even AAA.

Keith Law

  (1:47 PM)

I know weather was a concern - it's cold in the Eastern League in April. I doubt he stays in Frederick much longer.

Charlie (Bethesda, MD)

If you are actually expending electrons, you have a lucrative career ahead of you as the source of all the world's power.I'm convinced Ryan Zimmerman is going to hit 30+ HRs a year for a few years in the near future. What do you think?

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

The problem is I produce too much methane, so the global warming crowd will try to shut me down. No, I don't think Zimmerman is going to hit for that kind of power.

Sam (pelham)

Is Scott Richmond the real deal? Seems like a fluke, but his young talent could continue.

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

Fluke, and he's not young.

Frank (Rockmart, GA)

Keith,Wow, never heard of Wheeler before this chat and he lives right down the road here in Paulding County! Now I gotta go check out a game.

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

I recommend it - he's fun to watch. I've only talked to one national guy or SD who didn't love what he saw.

John (Mountain View, CA)

DEBATE CONTINUED: So if Sandy moves to First, who do the Giants have to play third? Villalona?

Keith Law

  (1:49 PM)

Eventually, Gillaspie.

Chris (Dallas, TX)

Small sample, I know, but Chris Davis has been sub-awful. Is Smoak close enough to ready to warrant a flip-flop of the two?

Keith Law

  (1:50 PM)

It's too soon on both fronts, but I think Smoak belongs in AAA.

Eddie (Fresno)

Do you think Tanner Scheppers will bust his way into the top 5?

Keith Law

  (1:51 PM)

Yes. I wouldn't be shocked to see him go 2, 4, or 5. Haven't heard him in San Diego's mix - popular rumors there are Tate, Gibson, and Green.

Jerry Manuel

I pinch-hit Omir Santos for Ramon Castro last night. Then I said sometimes players in the bullpen are more involved in the game than the actual players. The night before I dodged a question about overusing Sean Green by saying "the bullpen will give up runs, I'm not worried about that." Am I the worst manager in baseball?

Keith Law

  (1:51 PM)

I would have probably fired him on the spot for the Omir/Castro stunt.

Kenny (San Diego, CA)

Who will turn out to be the best pure hitter of the '08 draft (Alvarez, Posey, Smoak, or other)?

Keith Law

  (1:52 PM)

Bat only? Smoak. I'll bet on Posey for more overall value because of position and defense.

Dan (San Diego)

Who are you higher on assuming both stay at 3rd, James Darnell or logan forsythe?

Keith Law

  (1:52 PM)

Forsythe.

Brian (Wantagh, NY)

Is Patrick Schuster, the guy who pitched 4 straight no hitter, going to college or to the pros? Does he project as a star pitcher?

Keith Law

  (1:53 PM)

He isn't in my top 100 (should be posted next week) for this draft. I think he should go to college but the hype may push him up someone's draft board. It has to help when some team's president walks into the draft room and asks where two players are: you (Schuster) and Strasburg.

Chip (NYC)

Have we seen enough of Brett Gardner to conclude that he can't hit major league pitching?

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

Yes.

James (LA)

Heyward or Stanton? Both are monsters, but Heyward seems like his game will translate better to the bigs.

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

Heyward. Best prospect (non-Wieters/Price division) in the minors.

Fred (DC)

I notice you didn't include Strasburgh in the "unsignable" category for the Nats. You're that confident they pony up for him?

Keith Law

  (1:55 PM)

I'm confident that they'll take him and that eventually he'll sign. He's not going to do better by waiting a year, and the risk to him is enormous. My suggestion, again, is to offer him some huge number on Draft Day with a condition: "It's $30 million if you sign today. It goes down half a million dollars every day you don't sign." And you leak it to the press so everyone knows what the kid is turning down if he doesn't sign.

KG, Baltimore

KLaw, you were always higher than most on Nolan Reimold, but left him off your Top 100 this year. What is your current opinion of him?

Keith Law

  (1:58 PM)

I think he's an average everyday LF and it's probably time to pull the plug in Pee-ay (I would never pull the plug on pie) and insert Reimold.

Kevin (St. Paul, MN)

Doesn't MLB have to approve a bonus over slot? Will they approve a bonus that big right away?

Keith Law

  (1:59 PM)

MLB can not legally prevent a team from paying whatever it wants to a drafted player. If the Lerners let MLB hold up the Strasburg signing after the kid has agreed to terms, shame on them.

Uncle Jerry (Brooklyn, NY)

Phil Hughes=fool's gold. His fastball was consistently 88mph, that Maddox domain, and Hughes will never have Maddox's mastery of the black, nor the movement from the zone to beyond it. He'll get racked by 3rd tour around AL, book it.

Keith Law

  (2:01 PM)

Says the guy who can't figure out how to spell the name of probably the greatest pitcher of the last 50 years. And Hughes was throwing harder than that, with life.

Keith Law

  (2:02 PM)

Says the guy who can't figure out how to spell the name of probably the greatest pitcher of the last 50 years. And Hughes was throwing harder than that, with life.

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

OK, my connection here is flaking, and I need to write a blog entry anyway, so I'm cutting this off. Sorry to run short this week. Thanks for all the questions.