Chat with KC Joyner
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC in The Show on Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Hello again! Let's talk some football!
Eric (Long Island, NY)
Hi Kc! I was wondering if you have the metrics for the Bills offensive line from last year? also, I was wondering what your opinions are on their draft. Thanks as always!
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
I'm doing this year's research team by team and started with the AFC East, so the Bills are on my current radar. Their O line is grading out OK at the moment (I'm on my 10th game) but all in all they aren't as dominant in that area as you would expect guys of that size to be.
drew ny [via mobile]
looking at the raiders draft...lol. i almost feel sorry for there fans. al davis is the biggest idiot there is in pro sports. speed, speed, speed!
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
The way the Raiders are viewing this is DHB can be their next Willie Gault/Cliff Branch type of wideout. All they want is 3-4 vertical attempts out of him a game and he can do that. I wouldn't have taken him that high but Oakland obviously knew what they wanted.
Josh: Randolph, NJ
Do you think the Eagles can win the super bowl with adding Jason Peters in the free agency and getting Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
This is a time where it doesn't take a dominant team to win the Super Bowl, so I could see Philly making a run. By the way, after watching some Buffalo tape, I think Philly may have gotten a steal with Peters. He was out of shape because of the holdout and if they get him in shape, he should bounce back to being the dominant Peters.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
K.C. - In your scientific opinion, would Kenny Britt or Hakeem Nicks been a better first round choice for the Vikes than Percy Harvin?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
I did some analysis of Harvin and found that he really wasn't as dominant vertically as his scouting report indicates he can be. I like wideouts who can run the whole tree and Nicks can do that, so I would have preferred to see the Vikes take him.
So now that the draft is done, has Miami improved their secondary from last year with the addition of Wilson and the drafting of Davis and Smith?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
I figured Miami would go CB heavy and they did just that. I like Davis as their first pick and also think they might get some use out of Clemons, the FS from Clemson they picked up late.
Richard (Greensboro, NC)
Worse move: Broncos trading a 2010 1st rounder for a 2009 2nd rounder OR trading Broncos 2010 1st rounder instead of Bears 2010 1st rounder regardless of the trade?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Richard, I really didn't understand their mindset in more ways than just that. They need D in Denver badly and to go for a RB with their top choice just didn't make a lot of sense to me.
What do you think of michael vick lining up with pat white in a double wildcat.
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Not much for Vick's skills after so much time away from the game, but I do like White in the Wildcat. One thing of note - the Wildcat wasn't an option play last year. Brown would run whatever was called (i.e. told in advance whether to hand the ball off), but White could make it a true option play.
KC, Speaking of my Fins, what do you make of the WRs they picked up, Turner and Hartline?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
They both look like role players, but their skills do fit what Miami needs at WR. Turner gives them a big body for the end zone and Hartline gives them a bit of an insurance policy just in case Camarillo doesn't come back at 100%.
What is there to expect from that Packer denfense? Is Dom Capers worth the hype?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
If Capers lives up to his billing, he'll get the Packers to make fewer coverage screw ups. He's good at getting players to be where they are supposed to be and that's half the battle on defense.
Eric (Long Island, NY)
Hi KC what did you make of the Bills draft?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
Maybin fits their scheme in that he is a speed DE, so I like it from that perspective. Getting a center should also help, as their centers last year are not grading out well in my tape review.
Didn't the 49ers need more O-line help? They didn't take one if I remember correctly, what's up with that?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
They must think they can coach up their current guys. I'm about six games into their season and can see a bit of why they would think that, but many of their current guys are brittle, so some young depth would have been a good choice.
KC, why didnt the Steelers address their O-line more in the draft? Is it better than people think?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
I'm going to be a bit of amateur psychologist and say Pitt didn't upgrade their O line because they want to show the world they believe in the guys who won the Super Bowl for them. Not the best way to go about personnel development but that's what I think their mindset is.
Who do you think works better for what the Browns currently have, Quinn or Anderson? Considering we traded Winslow and drafted two possession recievers all signs point to Quinn right? But can he stretch the field vertically like Anderson that opens up the underneath routes and the runing game?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
After seeing some tape and all of his metrics, I'm off the Anderson bandwagon. I'd also not worry too much about Quinn's vertical game. Chad Pennington and Drew Brees are two of the best vertical passers because they know when and where to throw the ball deep. Quinn has that same skill set.
John (Green Bay WI)
How much does Green Bay's draft help Ryan Grant and the running game? they got 2 good O-lineman and a nice FB who could open up lanes as well. I have heard you say in previous chats that Grant did more with less blocking than most RBs, so is it safe to assume this helps him out?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
I think they'll get one starter out of those picks, so it will help some. I do like their pick of Raji, as he has that rare skill set of being able to stuff the run and generate some pass rush up the middle.
Cameron (Geico Office) [via mobile]
Hey kc, always enjoy your chats. How do you see the Chargers using Jacob Hester this year? He was a good runner in college and really showed promise in the preseason(if that counts)Does he get more touches this year, or should expect to see him in the standard fullback role? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
Assuming LT is back at full strength, or at least is still strong enough to get the bulk of touches, and with Sproles on board, Hester might have a tough time seeing the ball very often. I do think they could use him in a Kevin Faulk like RB/WR role more often.
Hey KC, Looks like the Bills loaded up on DB's in this draft in preparation for McGee leaving next year. How has he graded out so far?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
I don't have his numbers right in front of me but I know McGee was in the 6-7 YPA range for the year. Having said that, the Bills other CBs also graded out well and given their other moves, I wouldn't be too worried if McGee hits the road after this year.
Harvin isnt a vertical receiver; hes a guy who can seperate from d-backs and LB's on short to intermediate routes and turn them into huge gains
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
That's what he did in college and they'll certainly do some of that in the pros but they didn't draft him to be a Wes Welker.
Ryan (San Diego)
Whats up KC. Do you think the problems the secondary had last year can be healed with the drafting of Larry English and the return of Shawne Merriman? A return to the top 10 in overall defense perhaps?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
The change in defensive coaching will help as much as Merriman coming back. Cottrell has been one of the worst coaches at getting his guys in favorable matchups in the six seasons I have been breaking down tape.
Robert (Latrobe, PA)
Cleveland's offensive line was once thought of as a strength. Has it really declined so much that a first round pick needed to be used on a center?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
I've only done a couple of Browns games at this point but from what I've seen, their O line should still be a strength. Centers tend to get more POA runs than any other position, however, and that was probably the biggest question mark on the Cleveland O line, so I like the pick.
Do you have any idea why the Colts would draft a RB even though they already have a perfectly sufficient back in Joeseph Addai?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Addai is perfectly sufficient when he is on the field but he isn't always out there. Brown gives them depth and allows them to keep Addai fresh.
Josh McDaniels (Denver)
KC, I guess you never played fantasy football. Everyone knows that you need to load up on Running Backs. . . wait, this isn't fantasy?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Regarding McGee, its just too bad that the Bills plan on letting two good young CB's in back to back years (Greer this year and McGee next) leave for nothing. The Pats trade Ellis Hobbs, Branch, Cassel, Vrabel etc... Makes you realize why the Bills do not consistently win.
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
J, you and I normally agree on things but I have to disagree with you a bit on this. As much as I like CBs, NE has done pretty well over the years without having to go overboard on their CBs. Buffalo's issues stem more from not using their talent properly than anything else.
Tim (Saint Paul, MN)
If Harvin was a Wes Welker, wouldn't that be a great thing for that offense? Berrian already has the deep speed.
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Absolutely, and they will use him in that role to a certain extent. I just think they drafted him more for that over the top ability than anything else.
Robert (Huntsville, Al)
Hey KC. The only two junior QB's to come into the NFL and have success have been Big Ben and Vick. Obviously both are talented, but both have shown signs of being immature. Therefore, I stick by my guns and say to never draft a junior QB. While choosing a 1st round QB is a coin flip at best, choosing a junior 1st round QB is probably a 90% fail rate.
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
An interesting comment by Robert.
Can you elaborate on the Anderson metrics?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
His bad decision rate was terribly high (in the bottom 10 of the league) and his vertical passing was also nearly non-existent. All of the bad things he did the previous year seemed to come out in force. My scouting eye said he also was feeling the pressure of being the #1 and that's a sure sign you need someone else in there.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
With the departure of Matt Birk, I was a bit surprised that Minnesota didn't draft a center. Was it that they felt other needs were more important or that there just wasn't a center worth drafting?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
All the scouting reports I read said that the center position was stronger than usual, so I don't think it was a lack of prospects. Birk had really good numbers (I did an analysis on him for ESPN The Mag a few weeks back) and Minnesota didn't keep him either. They must know something about their backups that we don't.
anti-sooner postseason Frank: (midwest city, ok) [via mobile]
What are some areas the eagles need to improve on as they approach the new season? Anything they need to work on moving into next years offseason in terms of position depth and players age. (i think looking for a qb is a decent start)
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
Getting Ingram integrated into their offense quickly will be a high priority. LJ Smith had really poor metrics last year and Philly need to get back to having an elite flex TE. McNabb tends to lean on that position.
How did the FINS OL grade out. I know you mentioned in the past that Jake Grove had a real good season... How did Jake Long perform, and what kind of drop off occured once Smiley went down? Thanks KC
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Long had the best POA win rate of any Fins lineman (just under 90%). His performance didn't drop off after Smiley left but Alleman was a really bad replacement (77% win rate).
Ben (Camp Pendleton,CA)
Why do you think the lions didn't address the linebacker need eariler in the draft when LB's James Laurinaitis and Rey Maualuga were still on the board instead of Saftey Louis Delmas?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
The Lions pass D last year may be the worst I've seen in six years of doing this. Delmas isn't a coverage specialist but he will be an upgrade in many ways at run safety. As far as why take a S over an LB, the run safety pick helps them upgrade their run and deep pass D, where a LB would really only help on the run.
Kevin (Austin TX)
KC, is Roy E. Williams overrated? Every year people view him as a stud in the offseason, but he ends up an underachiever. Since youre the scientist, are there flaws the casual fan doesnt see?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
I'm forgetting my middle initials - is Roy E the WR or the safety?
Jake (VA Beach)
Any metrics to show whether or not the Giants would TRULY be better with Braylon instead of Nicks?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Check out my post on the NY Times Fifth Down blog about Nicks. Those metrics tell me he has the same kind of skill set as Braylon and better hands. I like the Giants pick.
FWIW, Most indications out of Minnesota say they think Sullivan (who they drafted last year) will do fine at center. I believe there has also been talk of moving Cook, if Loadholt is ablt to take over at RT.
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Good point, Kevin. I haven't seen much tape on those guys but the Vikes didn't seem to be worried about filling that spot. They've done a good job with their O line over the years so I wouldn't be too concerned about it.
How much of his troubles can be attributed to the struggles of Winslow and Edwards, the good defenses he faced (we saved the bad ones for Quinn, Dorsey, and Gradkowski), getting hit more, the abysmal play calling, the injuries to the oline, and the lack of a running game? I mean it was murphy's law last year for the Browns.
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
My retort there would be look how good the O looked at times with Quinn behind center.
Jarod (Bentonville AR)
So how bad did the Cowboys really do in the draft? I watch the train wreck live and have no idea where they are going with it.
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
My only take on their draft is I don't understand going for another OLB with their first pick. I know it's a 3rd round pick and all but OLB is the one position the Cowboys don't have a need at.
Kevin (Austin TX):
Roy E is the WR!!
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Ah, thank you for the clarification! Roy E's issue last year was partly injury related. It led to his having some of the worst metrics in the league. Health will help him improve but his biggest issue is still that he needs someone to be on his case all the time. Martz did that in Detroit and Williams had a great year, but he's never done as well without that kind of motivation.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
Thanks Kevin and good point, KC. Actually the only position the Vikes have failed to adequately address is the one that is keeping them from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender. "T. Jackson," and "Rosenfels," Vikes jerseys should be pretty cheap souvenirs by December.
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
They'll rank right up there with other great Vikes souvenir jerseys from the past, right?!
Jake (VA Beach)
In case you want the link for the chatters (it was kind of hard to find). http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/author/kc-joyner/?scp=2&sq=joyner&st=cse
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
Thanks for that. Readers can also go to www.thefootballscientist.com and find a link to my articles there.
Scott (Raleigh, NC)
KC - love your work. How were the Dolphins receiver metrics last year? Do you expect much impact from the rookies (Patrick Turner / Hartline) as they seem to be size clones of current receivers Wilford / Camarillo?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
All in all, they were terrific. The most surprising had to be Ginn, as he ranked in the top 20 in YPA for WRs with 90 or more passes thrown their way. Camarillo was 2nd in success percentage on short passes, so he's a potential Wes Welker. Those rooks will have their hands full getting PT.
Have no fear Vikes fans. I will be there soon to lead you to a 7-2 record then lose 6 out of the last 7!
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
Lots of Viking love for #4!
Chad (SLC, UT)
Just so you know...the cowboys 3rd rounder is projected to be an inside linebacker. Hopefully to replace Brooking in a couple years.
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Thanks for the info. That helps explain the pick but even ILB wasn't a need pick for them.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
Still wearing my "Dils" jersey loud and proud, KC.
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
See what I mean!
Shane (Los Angeles, CA)
KCJ: Heyas! Is the Draft Value Board really relevant anymore...at least until they have a rookie salary cap in place? There are plenty of top 5 teams who want to trade down but few who want to trade up, since not every draft has a Manning in it. And a follow up question: If you were a GM in this last draft, would you have targeted a team's 2011 first round pick (rather than the 2010) and gambled that a salary cap will be in place?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
The draft board is relevant in the sense that it places a historically based value on a pick. With the landscape changing due to the salary cap, it might be time to take a different look at the value board, but the overall concept still works. And no one would be willing to bet what is going to happen in 2011, so it would be hard to get anyone to trade for that pick.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
I wonder how many people on this board actually got the Dils joke. You'd have to be a die-hard to remember that name.
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
J.B., we have a lot of diehards here and many of them are Vikes fans, so I'll bet more than few got it! For those that didn't, it's time to learn some purple history!
Here's my theory (only half joking). Belicheck sent McDaniels to destroy the franchise he's always had the most difficulty beating. Every single decision McD has made, has made the Broncos worse. What a disaster.
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
It would be a Dilbert-esque move - send your competition promoted employees you don't want anymore. I'm not sure that's what happened but it is an interesting way of viewing the interplay between these teams.
why dont coaches get rid of all their draft picks except for maybe the first two and trade them for established players
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
The salary cap makes the George Allen approach you recommend harder than it used to be.
Do you think the Pats would have taken Harvin at 23 if the Vikings didn't take him?
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
I think the Pats were going to go D no matter what, so they probably would have passed on Harvin.
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
Well, I've got to hit the road now. Quick notes - I've put a link to the Dr. Z Nothing Is Impossible Foundation on the front page of my site. Paul had a stroke late last year and could use our help in getting the physical therapy he needs. Hope to see you all here next week!