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Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

Good morning everyone! Nasty day here out east, but at least we can have fun in the chat, right? Let's get you ready for Week 5 of the fantasy baseball season...

Chad Billingsley (LA)

5-0, 2.21 era, 9.30 k/9... do u see me finishing as a top 5 starter???

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

Yes (if you stay healthy). As you'll soon see in my "Out of the Box."

Mike (Albany)

Drop Kenshin Kawakami for Sean Marshall?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:05 AM)

Yes. Not that I see Marshall winning any Cy Youngs, and maybe Kawakami's ceiling is higher than Marshall's over the course of the year, but the risk is far greater, too. I'm bothered by Kawakami's penchant for the home run, and his health problems recently.

Tim (Buffalo)

Buy low on Beltre?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

I've said it about a thousand times over the year, if you draft Adrian Beltre, you better be a patient individual. He's a guy who almost never gives you his best stats until June 1. If you sell now you sell low.

Tom (Pa)

Nolasco dropped in my league -- use a #1 claim on him?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

Absolutely. I'm actually working up a column that delves a little into the luck factor of the season's first month, so I don't have the specific data quite yet to hand you, but having examined Ricky Nolasco generally I'd say he's pitching better than his numbers suggest. I'd grab him.

Chris (Boston)

Tristan - I need your help... Which pitcher do you like better this week... Liriano or Scherzer - both start twice.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

Well, in my Forecaster I ranked Francisco Liriano higher, so naturally that's my answer. Yes, a road start against the tough-on-lefties Tigers is a rough one for Frankie, but I still think there's enough there with the Mariner start at home late in the week to use him.

Shawn(St. Louis, Mo)

I am in a league with Dexter Fowler and Matt Laporta in free agency. Which one will have the better year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

Such a subjective question, because they're different kinds of players. That said, I think Fowler has already shown us he can succeed at this level, and LaPorta has not yet. Besides, I think it's a little tougher to fill those steals and runs scored, so I'd gravitate towards the Rockie. LaPorta's long-term ceiling is higher, but I'm not convinced yet that he's going to make an immediate impact. Might take him a little time.

Dave - Denver

Would you start Stults(2 start pitcher) over the hot Cueto with a tough matchup against the Cards this week?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

Not a chance. I'd say "don't get cute" but the chatters might grab their baseball bats and come a-searchin' for me if I did...

Lionel Hutz (Attorney at Law)

Mr. Cockcroft, I don't use the word hero very often, but YOU are the greatest hero in American history. That being said, what do you think about Scherzer? I'd love to keep him around for the strikeout potential, but my league counts quality starts, so I need him to pitch past the 6th inning more often then not. Make sense to drop him for Carpenter, Baker, Jiminez or Zimmermann?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:12 AM)

I miss you, Lionel. Great character. Hartman was a genius in so many ways. I'd stick with Max Scherzer in that instance. There's value in all of these guys, but here's a quick one-liner on why I hesitate swapping him for each of the others: Chris Carpenter -- health worries, out a while longer; Scott Baker -- the homer-itis really is scaring me; Ubaldo Jimenez -- live arm, unpredictable results; Jordan Zimmermann -- tell me where the wins will consistently come from?

Douglas (Pittsburgh)

Tristan, Commissioner Question. How long do you allow an owner to not be active with a team before you look for a replacement owner?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

As commissioner I try to remain in touch with any owner who displays those kinds of warning signs. If you're not hearing from an owner at all, I probably wouldn't go a month between last point of contact and owner replacement. Naturally, that comes with a series of warning e-mails along the way. But I hold ownership in a fantasy league to a very high standard.

Jim (Brooklawn, NJ)

Any concerns with Slowery?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

Well, Jim, first off, I don't mean to send Scott Baker owners entirely into a panic. As you'll read in "Out of the Box," I'm starting to feel like he's slipping into boom/bust territory, which is not a spot in which he resided to begin spring training. As for Slowey, he's always been a bit susceptible to the untimely home run, and his rate in the category isn't quite as troublesome. I look at his strikeout-to-walk ratio -- 11.5:1 -- and see much reason for hope. I'd call him a buy-low.

Chris Young (Arizona)

When will I start to hit? Should my owners drop me?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

Pardon my creating words -- creative license! -- but Chris Young, you're a slumpster. Saying "be patient" isn't exactly meant in the same fashion it is with the aforementioned Adrian Beltre. In that case it's a matter of time frames for hot streaks. In Young's, it's that he's in that free-swinging group that is going to drive you nuts with cold spells like this, but unfortunately you won't know when they're coming. Good stats will come with time. He had 'em late last year, for one. You just have to sit back and wait, though if you have an alternative to slot in for the short term, you should.

Jimmy Calvin Rollins

Excuse me Tristan but do you know where I can find my Delorean to take me back to 2007?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

It's either hidden under some branches behind a billboard a little outside of town (yeah right, like no one's gonna notice that -- always a gripe I had) or it's buried in a cave under the cemetery. But I digress ... Jimmy Rollins is in one of the classes of "bad-luck" stats I have coming in this soon-to-be-released column. Keep the faith.

Michael (Pittsburgh)

Do you see Laporta putting up longoria's numbers in his rookie season, this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

Nope. Never did and never will. Just not the same player. In fact, I doubt LaPorta has many years -- if any -- equal or better than Longoria.

Whitney, NYC

start Asdrubul Cabrera over Aviles (SS) or Jose Lopez (2B) this week? I think i sit Aviles. thanks Tristan.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

There is no way I'm using Mike Aviles right now. Period. He's been awful. It's Asdrubal Cabrera for me right now, though to be fair to Lopez, I think he has been a victim of bad luck himself.

Brian (Houston, TX)

speaking of rookies - when do Hanson, Price, and Wieters get the call.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

Matt Wieters is not coming up until June 1 (at least), and I'll keep saying that until I'm blue in the face. David Price's pitch counts -- generally around 75 -- don't at all look like a guy on the verge of a promotion. I'd say another month, best guess. And Tommy Hanson, I think he's up the instant we next see an opening in the Atlanta rotation, and it might very well wind up Kawakami's spot!

Glenn (Providence)

Given that Hall has finally decided to start hitting now that there is someone ready to replace him, do you see scenario where Hall would move to short to supplant the slumping Hardy making room for Gamel?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

Nope, not a chance. But let's go back to Bill Hall for a second here. His BABIP is a career-high .356. I own him in one of my most critical leagues and even I can attest that's a mirage. It's nice to see him motivated but I still say Mat Gamel presses him for his gig by midseason ... this just pushes off that possibility several more weeks, that's all.

Patrick (Denver)

Better upside. Hanson or Zimermann.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

Tommy Hanson. I'm totally sold. Both great prospects, but that kid's gonna be something special.

Jack Bauer (my dying request)

Okay, everyone knows Ill find a way to live ... but anyway, what do you see for the Minn outfield the rest of the way. I'm currently holding Span and Kubel ... (passes out, again)

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

C'mon man, they're seizures, not fainting. (And for the record, if that spoils anyone on the show, then you are way behind, sorry.) Anyway, the way things are going Carlos Gomez's playing time is most in jeopardy in the short term. In the long term I don't see Denard Span being a heck of a lot more than a fourth-outfielder type, though one that gets used more than your typical option. Jason Kubel is a guy I'd be least concerned about, but I'd be selling Span if I could.

Floyd Turbo Podunk Miss.

I'm praying the Mets send O.Perez down to the minors or put his sorry butt on the DL soon. If/When he does, the following SP's are available: Sean Marshall, U. Jimenez and Scott Baker. Each has got there shortcomings. Who should I grab? Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

No matter what I said about any of these guys in earlier questions, I'm taking the chance on Scott Baker's "boom" potential in that boom-or-bust comment from before. Way too high a ceiling to not grab in Ollie's place.

Howie Kendrick (LA)

IF I stay healthy can you write 20/20 in stone?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

Big "if," Howie. Big, big, big "if." But if all the stars align perfectly -- I even downloaded an app on my iPhone so I can monitor the skies for it -- then yes, I think that's a safe estimation. Safe healthy projection, but in no way is Kendrick's actual health safe, that's the problem.

brad (new york)

Is this the real justin upton?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

I think Upton's current pace of a .268 batting average, 29 home runs, 87 RBIs and seven stolen bases are a very realistic expectation, yes. And he does have a touch more upside from them, I admit. Before throwing some crazy investment his way, though, I'd be prepared for him to have a painful two-week slump or two along the way. It's going to happen.

Mike (Huntsville)

Why is Anthoney Reyes listed as a RP. He is a 2 start pitcher who I would use in my league but can't due to the RP only eligibility.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

Incredibly he had more relief appearances (10) than starts (6) last season, and that's the rule in a lot of leagues that separate the two. Sorry, Mike.

Chuck (Hershey, PA)

Do you start Hughes tonight and does he keep the gig when Wang comes back?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

No and if he's as awful as he was when he faced the Red Sox last year, then no. But I do think Chien-Ming Wang is a good week or two away still, so there's time for Hughes to make his case. I just wouldn't use him specifically tonight, if they can even get this game in.

PJ (NY)

Thanks for getting the two start cutoff back into the forecaster! What are your thoughts on Wandy this week? SD at home seems ideal but history suggests otherwise.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

You are welcome, PJ! Remember, as I stressed in the Forecaster, that's a hazy cutoff line that can vary depending on format. It's a suggestion more than a hard-and-fast rule. As for "history," it's irrelevant. Wandy is a must-start at home. Period, underscore, italics, whatever you choose for emphasis.

Fred (Tacoma)

In a H2H league thats 9x9, do you 'ok' the idea of punting saves? It's stupid to chase 1 cat, while hurting other ratio and negative counting cats with the likes of Sherill and Lindstrom right? Better to grab matchup type SP/ace Mid RP?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

The more the categories, the more viable the punting strategy. No need to sacrifice two categories for success in one.

Jon Lester (BoSox)

Am I a must start tonight vs the Yankees?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

Yes. Even at that ballpark. If they get the game in.

Mountain Lion (Woods of CA)

Can't believe I didn't get Kim Bauer when I had the chance. Stupid Johnny Drama. To console me: Tulowitzki or Hardy? Dempster, Hughes or Weaver? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

Ha! I'm still laughing, Mr. Lion. J.J. Hardy for me. Still like the power potential, and I think he picks it up sooner of the two shortstops. And I'd actually go Jered Weaver there for the long haul. To me, Phil Hughes is promised nothing, and Ryan Dempster remains a matchups type -- play him at home, but I'm not totally sold he's more than that.

Joesph Daniel Votto (Etobicoke, Ontario)

Am I a sell high or a hang onto? .440 BABIP is way high.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

Huge Votto fan. I said .300-30-100 was a distinct possibility in the spring and I do not at all step back from that. By the way, that'd mean he has 27 homers left in that bat. I'm staying the course.

Matt, (Florida)

Is Harang a good start today against the Marlins?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

I know all about that history of his against Florida, but unless I have an absolute embarrassment of riches on my pitching staff benching him is not a luxury I'm willing to afford. The Marlins strike out a great deal, and Harang is off to a good start. That makes for a pleasant enough start-'em combo.

Scott Richmond

Am I for Real?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Matchups type and I've advised taking a closer look at him Friday at Oakland.

Spyder Monkey (Up in a tree Somewhere)

Please dicuss Mark Teixeira.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

Classic, classic slow starter. In the Adrian Beltre mold. (Adam LaRoche, too, but he's off to an uncharacteristic hot start.) There's a difference between Teixeira and those other two, though; he cost a heck of a lot more to draft. If you sell now, you blow a lot of your draft-day investment, putting your team at huge risk. Guys like him tend to turn it around, and I think he's just suffering with the adjustment to a new team, and the pressures of having to carry that team while its other elite slugger, A-Rod, has been sidelined. By June I bet we've forgotten all about Tex's sluggish April.

John (Clev,OH)

Rest of season, Davies or Davis?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

Which Davis, Doug? I'm going Kyle Davies then. I like the upside, and I think that team shouldn't be so casually dismissed. At this level of pitching potential I'm taking a shot at lightning in a bottle.

Kenny (NY)

More valuable catcher to own going forward: Iannetta or Napoli?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:46 AM)

I still believe in Chris Iannetta and will remind Mike Napoli fans that he's one of the more brittle catchers around. I think that's going to even out over 162 games and Iannetta has more value the final five months of the season.

Todd (Philly)

Name the biggest mistake you have made this year with one of your teams?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

I queued this question earlier on to think it over, and the thought I keep gravitating back to is the 19-team mixed league I'm in where I spent way too much money way too early and had to sit back and watch for much of the second half of the auction. It was late at night, on a Tuesday and I had done two other drafts in the three days leading into it. Frankly, I started to get drowsy, and it hurt me in the latter stages. One of those times I say the advice to get a good night's sleep before your draft is absolutely true.

Mark, (Chicago, IL)

With what you said about Teixeira, who would you rather have for the rest of the year. Tex or Berkman?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

See, that's a toughie, because I think Tex has shown me enough to say Lance Berkman is a little more valuable from this point forward. I think we might have to wait just a bit longer than we want on the Yankee for him to win this debate. But I still have my concerns about the Astros offense over the course of the season, so I can't say this is a slam dunk.

Phil, Philly

R. Howard? Poor Pace for power so far.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

You live in Philly, Phil. Doesn't he always struggle in the category in April? He has fewer homers in that month (17) than in any other month in his career, and we're talking easily fewer.

Douglas (Pittsburgh)

Tristan, what are your thoughts on sitting your best players? For example, jose reyes hit .048 with 1 R and 0 Steals last week. When does they sit? and then when do they play again?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

It'd take a lot for me to bench a first-round talent. (Or second- or third-round, for that matter.) Don't micromanage.

Teege (Ca)

Shhhhhhhhhhh Zitos era is under 4

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

News flash: Barry Zito's ERA is under four! There, I said it loud enough so everyone knows that it's not something you should buy into yet!

I. M. Needing, S.P. (OF HQ)

Werth for Slowey ... fair deal?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

Sure. Seems about right.

Mike (Boston)

Would I be micromanaging by starting Helton over D.Lee this week? I've pushed many wrong buttons by going with the hot hand so far.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

I'm not a Derrek Lee fan, and have not been impressed by his performance thus far. No, that's not micromanaging. If you can build a legitimate case for why the substitution improves you, then it's not micromanaging. "He's slumping and I'm impatient" is not a legitimate case, that's my point.

Jim

Ortiz is def. benchable at this point right? i have been playing Laroche in my 1B and Branyan in my Util over him. What order from today forward would you put them in? I need an impartial judgement because I got Ortiz so cheap he was supposed to be my brilliant pick.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

Certainly but if you go over the course of the full year you have to think David Ortiz is most likely be tops of those three in fantasy value. Here's a shocker for you: I prefer Adam LaRoche. I'm impressed by him, and unimpressed by Papi. It's close, but for a bold call, it's the Pirate for me. Then Papi, then Russell Branyan, who with his big-K ways is bound for a slump. If you can, sell high.

Lee

Hey THC, I am getting impatient with Ramon Hernandez as he continues to stink it up...would you drop him for another option?...trade Justin Upton for Weiters?...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

It's not that that's a bad trade, and in a long-term keeper league I do prefer Matt Wieters to Justin Upton (position differential is huge). But I have to ask you, Lee, how does that really improve you in the "now," which is all that matters when dealing with impatience in a sluggish starter? I'd pick up a short-term fill-in -- guys like John Baker and Kurt Suzuki have been available in a few of my traditional leagues in the past week or so. Adequate stopgaps until Hernandez improves.

Hans Sprungfeld (Springfield, ???)

Hey Tristan, I have two very cromulent questions for this week?s lineup: 1) Should I start Ankiel or Fukudome over Braun or Swisher given their injury concerns this week? And 2) Beckett and Maholm are tempting with two starts each this week, but they?ve killed me over the past two weeks. Would you start one-starters Wandy or Nolasco (who has also sucked) over them? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

" 'I want to help you George Washington'? Man, even your dreams are square." Classic. OK, so I checked a little of the injury reports on those two, and Swisher's sounds a little more promising of the two, as Joe Girardi hinted he might play tonight. Of course, the weather is awful the next couple days. Braun, that sounds completely iffy. It's the injury that dates back to the WBC, and he pretty much admits that on any given night it's OK enough for him to play or it is not. I'd probably be going Rick Ankiel. Three at Cincy and the Cards face six right-handers. Seems safest to me. As for the two-starts, no way Josh Beckett sits for me in a two-start week. I'd sit Maholm for Wandy Rodriguez, though.

Brad (Chicago)

Lincecum for A-Rod. Fair deal?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

Give me Lincecum. My stance in the preseason was that A-Rod's health terrifies me, and I stand behind that statement. Yes, I'm more encouraged today, but that's comparable face value and Lincecum seems safer to me.

Dan (VT)

Daily, AL Only League. Start Davies tomorrow vs. CHW? Davies' last 2 starts have showed some serious KINKS in his armor...get it? The Kinks...Ray Davies...Kyle Davies??? o never mind.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

Uh, sorry Dan, seems like a stretch to me. Next thing you'll be trying to make some sort of Daniel Faraday parallel and ... well, for me to make the terribly awful pun I'd be spoiling the last episode and I bet some people have yet to watch it on DVR/TiVo. At any rate, I don't think Davies is a bad play at all against the White Sox, whom he dominated to kick off his season. It's a home start. Go for it.

don albany ny

what have you heard about aramis ramirez status .would you sit him this week .only other option is adam rosales

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:06 PM)

Sounds like Ramirez could be back in the lineup today, but no guarantees of that. Since today's games kick off a 7, what you can do is check the early lineup, and if he's not in it, slot him out. I'm actually a Rosales fan. That kid can hit, has all calendar year and I'm a buyer in NL-only leagues.

john(MA)

Hey THC! what's for lunch? start Myers for 2, or CLee for 1 this wk? thx and go for some ONION RINGS!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:07 PM)

When talking about the tough-on-lefties Tigers, I think that has some relevance with Cliff Lee's one start of the week. I'm going Brett Myers, even if the matchups are challenging. Better for two challenging than one. Speaking of the onion rings, mmmm, yes, you're making me hungry. Add a burger, BBQ and some bacon beneath it and man, you've got yourself a fine meal! Know what I'm eating now.

Kevin (MA)

Then would Braun's injury status make you want to trade him if you could get equal value?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:08 PM)

Sure, but only because it's been a lingering thing. I wouldn't accept anything beneath top-25 overall value, and even that low might be selling yourself short.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:09 PM)

OK folks, with the lunch mention that calls our session to a close. Thanks for all your questions, and best of luck in your leagues this week! Take care everyone...