Fantasy Baseball w/Jason Grey
Grey can answer your questions on major league players and the minor league top prospects. He is a graduate of the MLB scouting program, as well as both a Tout Wars and LABR champion.
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Jason Grey (3:02 PM)
Hey folks, lots of questions, let's get to it...
brad (harrisburg, pa)
your thoughts on rich hill? do you think he'll be an asset in a 12 team mixed from day 1?
Jason Grey (3:03 PM)
I think we'd settle for him being an asset in AL-only leagues first. I have him on reserve in one and even in that setting I am going to tread cautiously. Sure, there's a lot of upside, but he's also demonstrated that a lot of bad things can happen as well.
MANNY owner?? ADVISE please what would you do??
Jason Grey (3:04 PM)
Really, what can you do? Stash him away until July and pick up the best OF you can off the waiver wire...there's really nothing else to do at this juncture. Juan Pierre will get more playing time.
Dave (at work...ssshhh):
Is getting Wright for Greinke an even deal or should I look for someone better for Greinke
Jason Grey (3:04 PM)
Considering Wright was a top five pick in most drafts, how much better are you going for? Wright's numbers will be on the way up.
Jack (Dallas, TX)
Brett Anderson for Sean Marshall, would you do it? I have Marshall. It is a 5x5 mixed keeper league. Could keep either for 2 or 3 years before they get too pricey.
Jason Grey (3:06 PM)
Anderson's upside is greater than Marshall's over the next 3 years. Anderson's a legit middle of the rotation guy, while Marshall's a decent back end guy. Anderson is still getting his feet wet, but he's the pitcher I want for the next two years.
Sam (Evansville IN)
Ryan Zimmerman, Garret Atkins? Who do you like for 2009?
Jason Grey (3:08 PM)
Interesting question...because here is where I am normally supposed to say, Atkins will heat up and Zimmerman will cool off, so Atkins is the guy you want, but we've seen erosion in Atkins' numbers for a couple of seasons now, and I think Zimmerman is going to prove to be the more valuable player when the season ends.
Ken (Rahway, NJ)
About where would you rank Hudson among 2nd basemen now that his lineup protection has taken a severe blow?
Jason Grey (3:10 PM)
No more or no less than I would have before. Lineup protection has been studied many, many times and has been shown to have little or no effect. At the most slightly measureable effects, but not meaningful effects. Google will point you to a number of studies if you're so inclined.
What can we expect from Elvis Andrus this year and the next?
Jason Grey (3:12 PM)
Andrus is a .250 hitter with 30 steal potential if he keeps playing every day right now, with a slight improvement next season. He's an Edgar Renteria-type player at his peak (back when Renteria was in his heyday)
Will Matt Weiters be more valuable than Inge or Ianetta? All the hype has me confused. Thank you, sir.
Jason Grey (3:14 PM)
I would bet Wieters outhits Inge from the day he comes up through the end of the season. I thought Inge was getting a bit overlooked this preseason, but he's due for some dropoff. Iannetta has homered in four of his last five starts and is starting to come around, so I'd still take him for now.
Brent (Oxford, MS)
What are your thoughts on Scott Kazmir the rest of the way? His past couple starts have been awful.
Jason Grey (3:17 PM)
Been grappling with that some thought this week in a league where he was supposedly going to be my anchor. Velocity is down, and while the slider is back in his repertoire it hasn't been any good. The stuff just isn't there right now. I'm not optimistic at this juncture, because it doesn't necessarily look like a mechanical issue.
Justin Upton is on fire after a slow start. How high up the OF rankings is he? Drop Shin Soo Choo for him?
Jason Grey (3:19 PM)
Well, I don't know if I'm dropping Choo for him; I'd need to see the other options. Choo has been quietly effective with .271 three homers and six-for-six in steals, and there's still more upside there. But yes, Upton was my breakout player in the preseason predictions and it appears his swing is finally coming around. (It looked awful when the season started)
Martin (Tampa Bay)
Is it possible for Crawford to steal 100 bases this year?
Jason Grey (3:21 PM)
No, let's not go crazy. He won't keep up this pace, but it's good to see a healthy Crawford again.
Billy (Chicago, IL)
Jason, I read your 30Q piece on Kendrick in the preseason, but his 250 AVG isn't helping me in the standings. Would you stick with him or drop him for F. Sanchez or Callaspo?
Jason Grey (3:23 PM)
Stick with him - over his last 12 he's hitting .313 and slugging .521 - why drop him when he's just starting to get hot? Two homers and three steals in that span as well.
Got hit by the Manny suspension. On the OF waiver there's Matsui, Ankiel, Chris Young, or Elijah Dukes. Who would you pick up?
Jason Grey (3:24 PM)
Dukes has the biggest upside at this point of all of those players - so you really want to try and catch lightning in a bottle for the next 50 games.
Better use of waiver spot #1: Wieters or Hanson?
Jason Grey (3:26 PM)
Depends on your current catchers. I'm still leaning towards Wieters, but there are rumbling the Braves want to call up Hanson soon. How much PT each gets may determine who is more valuable. Bottom line is it depends on the relative strengths of your offense and your pitching staff. Which do you need more?
What are your thoughts on Nolasco? Do you see him turning things around soon-ish?
Jason Grey (3:27 PM)
Yes, Nolasco is throwing just like he was last year but has been extraordinarily unlucky thus far, including a .381 BABIP. Your patience will be rewarded , and he's a big buy low candidate if you can get him at the moment.
Juan (el Paso, Tx)
What do you see for my Texan Millwood for the rest of the year and can he keep up his 2.78 ERA?
Jason Grey (3:28 PM)
Like Nolasco -- just the opposite! His .227 BABIP indicates some bad things ahead. He's a high-four ERA pitcher going through a lucky streak. I'll take Jarrod Washburn before I take Millwood.
Do you think Kelly Johnson is stuck in a platoon? Is he worth dropping for Fontenot?
Jason Grey (3:30 PM)
Johnson has been known to be a streaky hitter, and Cox likes to go with the hot hand, but I think when it's all said and done you'd rather have had Johnson than Fontenot. He'll get it turned around.
Your colleague AJ Mass believes Callaspo has some serious value. Given the choice between Polanco and Callaspo, who do you like more? Both are very similar types of players.
Jason Grey (3:31 PM)
Callaspo can hit for an empty BA in the big leagues, but that's about it. I'd say Polanco because when Alex Gordon returns is Callaspo still guaranteed to get a lot of PT?
chase headley hurt? for rest of the season. hill or cano, liriano or shields?? thanks
Jason Grey (3:32 PM)
Sore shoulder - hopes to play again today. Cano, Shields
Roddy (San Fran)
For runs, SB and avg am I better off with Nyjer Morgan, Michael Bourn or Willy Taveras?
Jason Grey (3:34 PM)
Good question - I might actually say Bourn here. Seems like he finally got some things figured out.
Which "slow start" calibur player should I target and trade Dexter Fowler for? I think its Sell High time!
Jason Grey (3:34 PM)
I disagree, unless it's a big name. Count me in on Fowler.
Besides BABIP, what are other important pitching metrics to look at in analyzing arms?
Jason Grey (3:39 PM)
For chat purposes, I just use BABIP as a quick indicator to talk about the luck a certain pitcher has had at this point in the season. Start with the basics: strikeouts, walks, and hits allowed in relation to BABIP. Most of what you need to know is right in those figures. For a player like Millwood, I need to see something fundamentally different scouting-wise about the way he's pitching or his circumstances before I start necessarily believing in a new level of performance. There is none in his case, which combined with the BABIP, tells me he's just been lucky.
Jason Grey (3:40 PM)
Also, check out Tristan's latest piece on BABIP, because that number also needs to be considered in the proper context. LIke I said, for chat purposes, it kind of illustrates certain points quickly, better than me just saying "he's been lucky"
Rumblings out of Atlanta are that Kawakami has a dead arm and might need a DL-stint. Is this the opportunity Hanson needs to get into the Braves' rotation?
Jason Grey (3:41 PM)
Certainly would be, but last I checked Kawakami had a cortisone shot and made his last start and struck out seven in 5 with 113 pitches, so unless something has changed since then he appears to be OK for the moment.
Wolf, Chapel Hill NC
John Danks is sitting on the waiver wire.. Should he be? (H2H 10-man points league, he put up a nasty -17 last week!) ....
Jason Grey (3:43 PM)
No - still has a 3.81 ERA and 1.271 WHIP despite some bad outings. Nolasco, Danks - - last year was not a fluke.
Jason Grey (3:46 PM)
It's coming up a lot in the questions, so bears repeating - the concept of lineup protection does not have the effects people think it has re: Manny. LOTS of studies done on it that are easily googled. One study's quote that I remember is "It's a specious theory propped up by selective observation." Overall, it really doesn't matter. So stop worrying about selling on Hudson, Furcal, Kemp, Ethier etc. for the next 50 games. Again, this isn't just me throwing stuff out of left field, google will tell you what you need to know.
Sam Augusta, Ga)
What order do you put these pitchers in 5x5 and are any worthwhile for the rest of the year: Bannister, Blanton, Millwood and Porcello. Thanks
Jason Grey (3:47 PM)
Porcello is the only one I would consider in mixed 5X5
Marco Scuatro (Toronto)
Listen, I understand I'm Marco Scutaro, but can I get some love from ANYONE??
Jason Grey (3:48 PM)
If you can put the bat on the ball and play every day, every so often you can do some surprising things. There's love here, simply because I got grief in a high-stakes auction for buying Scutaro for $5 when Joe Inglett only went for $2.
Jason Grey (3:49 PM)
Lot of questions about the lineup for the Dodgers - moving up in the order can only be helpful for a player like Kemp.
how highly do you still think of Fowler? could he have an Adam Jones breakout? Or more like Nyger Morgan or what Cam Maybin was supposed to do?
Jason Grey (3:52 PM)
I wrote a large piece on Fowler : http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=clipboard090427 published the morning of his 5 steal game (Yay, me!) Still holding to it, even though Fowler went through a mini-strikeout streak recently And technically, we're still waiting for Adam Jones to have an Adam Jones breakout season - though he's certainly headed in the right direction thus far :-)
Zippy from Boston
Alexi Ramirez or Jhonny Peralta going forward?
Jason Grey (3:54 PM)
I'll take Alexei because he can at least steal a few bags to help the cause when his bat is in a slumber.
Joao gomes (Brazil)
Jason, how much does hype play into a fantasy manager's head? I currently consider dropping either Wandy or Kuroda for Hanson. Am I hype crazed?
Jason Grey (3:58 PM)
It's natural to favor the unknown potential over what is currently in front of us. Anyone see that Family Guy episode about choosing the boat or the box? It's like that. Considering a lot of my job is spent at Class A stadiums and the like, I have to be careful not to fall into that trap myself. Use hype to your advantage against owners that don't handle it as well. Aren't you hoping that Hanson puts up the kind of numbers that Wandy is now? Or Kuroda did last year. Haven't they already done that? All that said, given Kuroda's injury, I'd go with Hanson's upside for the moment.
Someone just dropped Verlander and I have Baker and Slowey rounding up the bottom of my pitching roster. Would you drop either for Verlander? I have Haren, Greinke, and Vazquez as my other starters so I'm not in need of any one stat from my SP's. The 60ft 6 inches article just bumped Verlander above Baker but I'm not so sure that Baker is as bad as his numbers suggest. What do you think?
Jason Grey (4:00 PM)
Baker's not I wrote about him on Monday, here: http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=clipboard090504) and I definitely want to scoop Verlander, but are there really no hitters or other pitchers to drop? I'd take Verlander over Baker if that was the only option.
Quit pimping your articles, i wanted to know if the slump changed your projections at all!
Jason Grey (4:02 PM)
Hey, If I've answered the question more thoroughly recently than a few quick words in chat can do, I'm pimping away! And as I said about Fowler, nothing has changed in my opinion. I would let you know if it had :-)
Jason Grey (4:06 PM)
That's it for me today guys. Sorry I couldn't get to more - 1500+ and just trying to get to as many interesting ones as I could. I'm behind on responding to the comments in my articles (and all my correspondence frankly) and will catch up with them today. Thanks for all the interest, see you next week.
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