Keith Law

  (1:02 PM)

"No one man stops baseball." Who knew Vin Scully was a Goodie Mob fan?

Daniel (Argentina)

Please Keith, dont make it an All-Manny chat.

Keith Law

  (1:03 PM)

Trust me, I have no interest in breaking down the mechanics of Manny's schwing.

Chris: (Toronto, Ontario)

Keith, Casey Janssen has looked pretty sharp in the minors. Do you see him as a guy who can step in and really contribute to the Jays starting rotarion woes?

Keith Law

  (1:03 PM)

No. Even pre-injury, he didn't have any kind of out pitch - just an extreme strike-thrower (good) but he'll put a lot of balls in play.

Eric - NJ

The MLB draft is in inverse order of regular season finish, correct. If so, why wouldn't the Pirates, Houston, Ariz, Oakland, Cle, and Balt all try their hardest to "play their kids" this year in an effort to draft Strasburg. Would make sense, no?

Keith Law

  (1:04 PM)

It would make tremendous sense if Strasburg was in next year's draft instead of this one.

J. Francoeur (Atlanta, GA)

If on-base percentage is so important, then why don't they put it up on the scoreboard?

Keith Law

  (1:05 PM)

They do. But if you can't tell the difference between a ball and a strike, what are the odds you can read a three-digit acronym that's 400 feet away?

Kirby (NY)

What the heck? You're going head-to-head with Stark? Why would they not stagger you guys?

Keith Law

  (1:05 PM)

I had one window today where I could do this. It was 1 pm or no chat. So shut up.

Mike (Lawrence,KS)

How high to you see Scheppers going this June? Crow?

Keith Law

  (1:06 PM)

Top ten for both. Scheppers could conceivably go as high as 2, and the Pirates did take him last year (they pick 4), and they probably know as much about his shoulder as any team does, for better or for worse.

Ben, San Francisco, CA

Who do the Seattle Mariners take as the 2nd pick in the draft? I would imagine it would be either Ackley or Green, but Alex White is a possibility.

Keith Law

  (1:07 PM)

Ackley, Scheppers, Turner. White doesn't seem to be that high on their list, and Green seems to be below him.

Jeremy (NY)

Edinson Volquez seems to have turned it around after a slow start. Does he have a shot at Rookie of the Year?

Keith Law

  (1:08 PM)

He's really hoping to increase his vote total every season, so that by the time he's 30, he has a chance to win it.

Douglas (St. Louis, MO)

This is a pretty fundamental question. The Cardinals have trotted out a bunch of young players this year, none of whom are on *any* top prospects lists. And yet, they've played really well (so far). Why weren't any of them top prospects? Is it because they only project as fringe major leaguers with little star potential? (I think Thurston, Barden, Freese all fit this mold)

Keith Law

  (1:09 PM)

No star potential and I'd say little everyday potential. It is just a month of data.

Brian (Alexandria)

Have Scheppers and Crow consented to be redrafted by the Pirates and Nationals (respectively)?

Keith Law

  (1:11 PM)

I think so on Scheppers but the last word on Crow was no.

Mike (Denver, CO)

Have you had a chance to see Charlie Blackmon play? If so, your thoughts? I'm greatly anticipating the day I won't have to watch Brad Hawpe play defense anymore.

Keith Law

  (1:11 PM)

I was there to see him and Gomez, but Blackmon had tweaked his neck and didn't play.

Dan (Chicago)

Jordan Danks has a nice .337/.424/.525 going...the Ks are alarming, but he's also taking his walks. Is he closer to the legit prospect he was coming out of High School, or the 7th rounder out of college?

Keith Law

  (1:12 PM)

Again, one month of data, and he's not young (or old) for the Carolina League. A top college product should hit very well in high-A (and shouldn't even see low-A), so I look at the stats of a player like Danks to see if he's struggling, which would be a very bad sign.

Spencer (washington D.C)

Lottery system?

Keith Law

  (1:13 PM)

This ain't the NBA. Between the end of season N and the draft in season N+1 is an entire season of amateur baseball.

Brian - Laveen, AZ

Keith - I am going to Vegas tonight...where is one place, reasonably priced, that I need to eat at...if a place like this exists :)

Keith Law

  (1:13 PM)

Firefly.

Ryan (Pittsburgh)

I've only been following the draft for a few years now, but this draft seems to have the most confusion over who the legit top 10 picks are going to be than any of the past few anyway. I feel like I've heard about 40 different guys that could go top 10.

Keith Law

  (1:14 PM)

I think that's a very good summary of it. Jacob Turner wasn't top 15 three weeks ago, and now he could go 2 and doesn't get out of the top 10 unless his price tag is outrageous.

Max, NY, NY

Next manager fired... Wedge? Manuel?

Keith Law

  (1:15 PM)

Wedge. He might be dead man walkin' right now. Opposing PA guys should just play that clip where Sean Penn comes out of his cell for the last time whenever Wedge goes to the mound.

Jason (NJ)

Where on the zantacular scale was last night's Indians bullpen performance?

Keith Law

  (1:15 PM)

It was beyond zantacular - it was vomitacious. Can we finally just accept that Jeremy Sowers isn't a major league pitcher?

Mike (Chippewa Lake, OH)

Keith, is U of Florida's Riley Cooper considered much of a prospect for the June draft, or should he stick to football? Thanks.

Keith Law

  (1:18 PM)

He should stick to football. I'm not even sure how much he's playing now - he's hitting .218 with 18 K in 37 AB against SEC opponents, and he was on those numbers two weeks ago.

Seamus (Braintree, MA)

Did you see the article the Thomas Boswell article about top 10 picks the last 45 years? Strasburg might be the best prospect but if you have to pay him 3-4 times as much as the 2nd best prospect and his odds of being a truly great success are lower, would it make sense to draft the best position player instead?

Keith Law

  (1:19 PM)

Saw it, Boswell's got an agenda and facts be damned. I think Washington would be pretty happy if Strasburg turned out to be Kevin Brown or gave them the first six years of Doc Gooden's career, to say nothing of the differences in the way players are developed today vs the 1970s and 1980s, which constituted the bulk of the study.

Keith Law

  (1:19 PM)

And, as I've pointed out before, Strasburg is dominating his competition in a way that no previous college pitcher has done.

Dennis (Santa Clarita, CA)

Why did the Dodgers bring up Xavier Paul instead of Jason Repko? I'm rather mystified.

Keith Law

  (1:20 PM)

Defensive value. Paul's a pretty good platoon hitter - good swing, good idea of the zone, should be duct-taped to the bench when there's a lefty on the mound.

Tim (Boston)

Keith, I just finished reading Rick Riley's piece on Pat Venditte. Is this kid a legitimate prospect? Also, what's your opinion on store bought BBQ sauce? Blasphemous?

Keith Law

  (1:21 PM)

No. Of all the prospects to write about - hasn't Venditte's story been told a hundred times? There are probably 200 better prospects in the minors, each of whom has a story waiting to be told. And no, not blasphemous.

Josh (St. Louis MO)

You're a putz. You said the cardinals players this year have no star potential and very little every day potential. If they were on the Yankees or Red Sox you would be jumping up and down and proclaiming their induction to the hall of fame already. You ESPN guys are all a bunch of Schlubs.

Keith Law

  (1:22 PM)

Greatest fans in the universe, everyone. With the reading comprehension skills of a hamster.

Sam (WA)

Do you think that the Nationals pass on Stratsburg and he falls to the Mariners at 2? He would look real good next to Hernandez or vice versa.

Keith Law

  (1:22 PM)

No, Washington has been saying for two months that they're going to take Strasburg. I doubt there's a team that would pass on him; the PR fallout alone would scare most owners/presidents into ponying up the cash.

Jeff (NYC)

Greinke or Strasburg for the next 5 years?

Keith Law

  (1:23 PM)

Good one. Greinke. We know what he is. We don't know how long till Strasburg becomes what we think he'll be in the majors; he hasn't exactly had to work on his command while pumping 98 mph aspirin tablets past mid-major conference hitters.

Vik (Bay Area)

is it possible Grant Green will be available when the giants pick their first rounder in the upcoming draft?

Keith Law

  (1:24 PM)

Yes.

Ryan from Smithtown, NY

Happy Friday, Keith! A three-part draft question for you: In light of Grant Green's less than stellar junior season, are there still teams who draft in the 2 thru 8 slot who have shown a good amount of interest in the USC shortstop? If so, who are they? Second, assuming Green lasts till the Tigers pick at #9, based on the scuttlebut that you've heard, how likely is it that SD David Chadd would overlook questions surrounding Green's power/ability to remain at SS and select him? Finally, assuming Ackley is off the board, the Tigers have no interest in Green and chose not to select Donavan Tate, are there any other bats they would consider at #9? Wil Myers? Mike Trout?

Keith Law

  (1:25 PM)

They're definitely on Myers. Trout would be a reach up there, although they do like him. Chadd loves big arms, and one of Scheppers, Crow, Turner could fall to him, and I guess you could include Paxton as well.

Sean (Florida)

Keith, I know you dont draft for need in the MLB draft, but if the Boston College catcher is still there for the Red Sox should they consider taking him? They draft late in the first.

Keith Law

  (1:25 PM)

Late first is about where I'd start considering him, but I think there are some better prep catchers who'll be around at their pick.

Matt H. (Tallahassee)

How awesome would it be if the grassroots movement to get Lastings Milledge in the all-star game actually worked?

Keith Law

  (1:26 PM)

It would be phenomenal. In fact, I need to remember to vote for him 25 times. Thanks for the reminder.

Steven (Toronto)

Are there any Canadians expected to go in the first couple rounds of this year's draft?

Keith Law

  (1:27 PM)

James Paxton, LHP, U Kentucky. Jake Eliopoulos, LHP, Ontario. Paxton goes in the 1st (although his price tag is a little up in the air, since I reported yesterday that he's chosen Boras as his adviser), and Eliopoulos probably in the 3rd.

KLaw fan, Chicago

Keith, what high school star from The Great State of Georgia do you see the Braves taking at #7?

Keith Law

  (1:28 PM)

The two names most linked to them are Zack Wheeler (from Dallas, GA) and Tyler Matzek (from California).

Mark (NJ)

Is Trout Steve Trout's son?

Keith Law

  (1:28 PM)

I was told there's no relation but Trout's dad did play pro ball.

Brian (Brooklyn)

I know you are not a fan of Charbucks so where do you go for a cup of coffee (or do you brew your own - if so any recommendations)?

Keith Law

  (1:29 PM)

I'm a fan of their wi-fi, since I'm sitting in one now. I mostly brew espresso at home and rarely buy coffee out.

PD (Indy)

Is Tucker Barnhart (Indy area; Georgia Tech recruit) anything as a draft prospect?

Keith Law

  (1:29 PM)

Yes but I got the impression he's going to end up at school because he won't be drafted high enough/paid enough to sway him away from school.

Tom (NJ)

Keith, what are your thoughts on the Jarrod Parker, Tim Alderson, & Madison Bumgarner being promoted to AA already? Too soon or should they be challenged? Also, were the Rangers too aggressive in putting Feliz in AAA?

Keith Law

  (1:30 PM)

I have no problem with steering good pitching prospects out of the Cal League as quickly as possible. Feliz to AAA was what I would have done as well - have to push a guy like that to a level where his stuff won't just blow hitters away and he has to learn to pitch.

Dave (Somerville, MA)

Thoughts on AJ Hinch going from the front office straight to the bench ...

Keith Law

  (1:31 PM)

Shocking. I have heard amazing things about AJ as a development guy, but if I were a GM, I don't think I'd ever hire a manager with zero pro managing experience.

Mike (San Diego)

Thanks Keith. It's been speculated that the Padres are on Donovan Tate at #3. Is this an indication that the Fuson/Gayton tandem has accepted that their drafting philosophy has been flawed, or evidence of Moorad's influence?

Keith Law

  (1:34 PM)

He's in their mix, but they're also looking heavily at Green and Kyle Gibson. And Jason has heard that they've been at just about every Matzek start, although more than one source has told me they don't see SD taking a HS pitcher at 3.

Douglas (St. Louis, MO)

Not all of us have poor reading comprehension skills. That said, did you ever scout Shane Robinson when he was at Florida St.?

Keith Law

  (1:36 PM)

I saw him over the summer, I think with Team USA. Not an everyday player. Plays his tail off, though, and has good plate coverage. Probably 30 power.

Nick (Milwaukee)

Your high opinion of Desmond Jennings in your prospect rankings seems to be proven very much correct so far. I know batting .392 is not going to happen, but if he keeps this up (relatively speaking), could he be a legit top 10 prospect next year?

Keith Law

  (1:37 PM)

He has the ability to be a top 10 prospect, but hasn't stayed healthy. It's a great start, but (again) it's just a month of data, and we need to see if he can stay on the field for 130 games this year.

Ryan (Pittsburgh)

Where do you think the injured Luke Bailey goes in the draft?

Keith Law

  (1:38 PM)

Slides maybe a round or two, but I think someone pops him by the 3rd-4th round and signs him late summer after they see how his elbow is recovering.

Brian (Rochester, NY)

Hi Keith, here's a non Manny question for you. I've read rumors that if the Jays don't stay in contention that they would consider trading Doc?? How does that make sense? I'm still optimistic about this year, but next years starting rotation could look something like this: Doc, Shaun Marcum, Scott Richmond, Dustin McGowan, Ricky Romero with maybe Janssen or Purcey somewhere in there. I'll take that any day. What do you think of that rumor, and do you think the Jays can continue what they're doing this year or should I ask you that after they play the Sox and Rays (the Yankees don't scare me at all this year). Thanks!!

Keith Law

  (1:39 PM)

Trading Halladay this year makes no sense. I think that's a media creation; no one in the industry has even hinted to me that he might be on the block, and with them playing well, it makes even less sense. One thing, though - don't get too attached to Scott Richmond.

Chris (Alabama)

Is it too early to be down on Kyle Skipworth. He's just not doing anything and didn't last year, either. What about Matt Harvey (UNC)? Not too long ago, he was everybody's favorite to go #1 overall in the 2010 draft and now he's not even good enough for UNC's weekend rotation.

Keith Law

  (1:41 PM)

I'm a little concerned on Skipworth but he's very young and could just as easily have started the year in extended spring. I have had a hard time with him - didn't like him on my first look, liked him more after seeing video last spring, then he had the bad summer. Harvey has never, in my mind, been a #1 overall candidate for 2010; I don't know where that came from, but it's not that kind of stuff or body. If he ends up a #1 overall candidate next year, it's a thin draft.

Chet (LA)

Have you seen Hochevar this year? His numbers are pretty solid, but will he ever live up the #1 pick 'hype' and be a top of the rotation starter? Thanks.

Keith Law

  (1:42 PM)

Mid- to back-of-the-rotation guy. One cross-checker said to me during spring training that we all "got fooled by the pretty delivery." And he's right - it is a pretty delivery.

xxx (yyy)

Rangers #1 minor league prospect right now: Smoak or Feliz?

Keith Law

  (1:42 PM)

Smoak.

LP (Memphis)

Seriously Keith, what's your deal with the Cardinals? I'm not talking about your opinion on players and prospects, but you always have something snide or sarcastic to say about the management and fanbase. I find it odd.

Keith Law

  (1:42 PM)

As opposed to the wine and roses I dish out to the other 29 teams and fanbases?

Dennis (Santa Clarita, CA)

So, you're doing this chat in your car with your laptop and talking with Colin at the same time? You're really good.

Keith Law

  (1:43 PM)

I'm also cooking dinner and solving a Rubik's cube.

Mark Shapiro (Cleveland)

Were you serious about being willing to pitch the 8th? How soon can you get here?

Keith Law

  (1:43 PM)

I have to warn you: I throw uphill.

Tommy (Philadelphia, PA)

"I need a fresh cappuccino with a mocha twist"...sorry had that song stuck in my head. Anyway, Pittsburgh's pythagorean record has them as an 86 win team- is their positive run differential just a sample size fluke or can this team actually win 75-80 games?

Keith Law

  (1:44 PM)

Has anyone looked at whether run differential is meaningful in small samples like 25-30 games? I often see it touted early in the season when explaining which teams are going to improve/regress, but it's based on the fact that the formula has been tested over 162 game samples.

JB (Orlando)

Follow Keith on twitter and you'll know Colin is taped. Nothing like the snark available at all times on twitter.

Keith Law

  (1:45 PM)

Tangentially related question: Shouldn't the past tense of tweet be "twote?"

Dave - Sacramento

Who is on the Giants radar for the 6th pick? The system is in desparte need of a top flight OF but this draft doesnt appear to merit that kind of pick at number 6.

Keith Law

  (1:46 PM)

By all accounts they're still fairly open because they're not sure who falls to them. Heard they'd prefer a college player but haven't ruled out a HS pitcher. Don't see them on Tate. They've been linked on and off to Green and Wheeler.

Scott (Boston)

And if you twitter, are you a twit?

Keith Law

  (1:46 PM)

You owe Joe Strauss $5. He made that joke a few months ago.

Ari (Toronto)

Tim Collins works uphill too, 34k in 18ip so far in Dunedin. Do you have a scouting report on him, and are the Jays taking it slow in his development? Future big league reliever or just a good story?

Keith Law

  (1:47 PM)

Future big lg reliever. Maybe just a specialist, but I think he's a big leaguer.

Grant, Winnipeg

You're particularly sharp today, nice. I know Boswell's a bit of a knob, but isn't there something to the basic point that the top pitchers have a greater degree of variability than the highest drafted hitters? That's consistent in recent years, not just the 60's and 70's.

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

I would agree with that, and if there was a moderately comparable hitting talent in this draft, we could talk about it. But this is the worst hitting draft I've seen, and I've been involved in or have covered nine drafts, including this one.

Jon (SF)

Is it too early to call Wendell Fairly a bust? He can't hit in the Sally.

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

And he's not young. It's not good.

Brandon (LA)

With all this Dodger stuff, can you tell me if the Angels have any other impact propsects left in their system?

Keith Law

  (1:48 PM)

Sweeney and Reckling.

Dan (Atlantic City, NJ)

How high do you see Mike Trout from Millville (NJ) HS going?

Keith Law

  (1:49 PM)

Late first. I'll be at his game tonight if it doesn't rain.

Nate (Madison)

Maybe it's time we send the Brewers over to deal with the Pirates because based on what they have been doing to Pittsburgh they have no trouble handling them in the states.

Keith Law

  (1:49 PM)

Approve.

Tom - Chicago

WHat is the ceiling on Chisenhall? Does he stay at 3B or move to 2B? Can he be Ian Kinsler-lite?

Keith Law

  (1:50 PM)

I don't think he's agile enough for 2b. I think if 3b doesn't work out, they'll move him to left. He can hit, though. I underrated him last year, by a lot.

Jon (SF)

Livan is in the league because _______. For how much longer?

Keith Law

  (1:51 PM)

Because fat people are jolly?

Jon (LA)

I think not enough people are emphasizing what the Dodgers are losing by not having Manny's clubhouse leadership and passion for the game. In the long run, they'll miss that more than his bat for the 50 games he will be out.

Keith Law

  (1:51 PM)

$5.

Koji Uehara

Thoughts on my progress? 24 Ks and 2 walks in my last 4 starts.

Keith Law

  (1:53 PM)

You've kept the ball in the park a little better than I expected. That's the key indicator.

john (charlotte, nc)

I heard today on the "message boards" they're reports out of Anaheim that the Angels are offering Brandon Wood to the Red Sox for Justin Masterson...if this is even true, does it make sense?

Keith Law

  (1:53 PM)

Those "message boards" are super-reliable, too. Why would the Red Sox want another corner infielder?

Jimmy (Cherry Hill, NJ)

Other than Jason Heyward and Tommy Hanson, do the Braves have any impact hitters in their system. Two prospects isn't enough to have a Top 5 system.

Keith Law

  (1:54 PM)

Freeman, Locke, Rohrbough, Teheran ... nobody except you seems to think they have only two prospects.

Mac (Philly)

Considering who was drafted immediately after him, and that he was a first round surprise, was Tyler Colvin one of the worst draft picks in the past few years? I guess you'd have to include Moskos on that list too.

Keith Law

  (1:56 PM)

Moskos was worse. Heyward, Dominguez, Bumgarner, Parker all on the board and likely to sign for what Moskos took. And that Wieters fellow. But yes, Colvin was a shocker - I talked to two clubs that night who had him in the 4th-5th round range.

Donnie (brick, NJ)

Keith man up its time to admit you were wrong on your projections for Adam Jones. He looks real good at the plate. And excellent in the field

Keith Law

  (1:56 PM)

If anyone can figure out what this guy's talking about, please fill me in. This might be a $20 fine.

Pete (Washington, DC)

Will Kershaw get his WHIP under 1.15 this year? he is at 1.30 right now.

Keith Law

  (1:57 PM)

I can't say I pay attention to WHIP, but I wouldn't be surprised if his walks were up and down all year.

Alex (Scottsdale AZ)

Which FA would you rather have this offseason, Bay or Holliday?

Keith Law

  (1:57 PM)

Bay. And I would have said that a month ago, too. I've never been that high on Holliday.

Tom (Watertown, MA)

You think Daniel Bard has the mental fortitude to succeed in a high-leverage bullpen role in Boston? He seems like the type that may not be cut out for that kind of pressure...

Keith Law

  (1:58 PM)

That's been the knock on him, and when I've seen him in pro ball, it's been an issue. I understand he is throwing incredibly well in AAA, so it's probably time to find out, right? Call him up, start him in mop-up, work him slowly up towards a leveraged role.

Jeff (NYC)

Are you going to be making an appearance on the ESPN MLB Draft broadcast? If so, when is it being televised?

Keith Law

  (2:00 PM)

We're not broadcasting it - MLB is. I'll be on ESPNEWS on and off during the first round, and probably liveblogging and chatting the next day.

Josh (Columbia, MD)

Aubrey Huff for Brandon Wood and an additional prospect?

Keith Law

  (2:01 PM)

Why wouldn't the Angels just ... play ... Wood?

steve(pittsburgh)

Do you like what the Rangers are doing with Holland? Doesn't a player of his caliber need more innings to perfect his craft?

Keith Law

  (2:02 PM)

I believe young starters should be broken into the majors as long relievers, period.

Gavin Floyd (Chicago)

I know you were down on me, but was this what you were expecting?

Keith Law

  (2:02 PM)

Below replacement level? No.

Trieu (Cambridge, MA)

You've probably answered this before, but is there a reason the MLB draft takes place when it does?

Keith Law

  (2:03 PM)

Tradition? There was also a January draft once upon a time. I know several scouting directors who'd prefer to see the draft happen at the end of June after the college season ends, or even in August after summer ball ends.

Robert (Houston)

What is your non alcoholic drink of choice? Soda, iced tea, water?

Keith Law

  (2:03 PM)

Iced tea. Unsweetened, you southern freaks.

John (Philly)

Is Colby Rasmus ever going to become the superstar that we all thought?

Keith Law

  (2:03 PM)

Yes.

Alex (Knoxville, TN)

Klaw, I would love to hear your thoughts on Casey Kelly performance so far this year and what we should expect from him when he shifts over to SS. Thanks!

Keith Law

  (2:04 PM)

He might have been more advanced than I thought - he had good command for a high schooler, but he may just have had good command, period. At short he'll play good defense but probably not hit all that well.

Keith Law

  (2:05 PM)

OK, thanks for the questions. Next week's chat may also move to Friday depending on weather and the BP schedule over at BC on Thursday. I'll post updates on twitter and the dish.