KC Joyner

  (4:00 PM)

Good afternoon! Let's chat some football.

Mike (Mpls)

We've talked for a couple of years about TJack and Chilly. If Favre comes here (and I'm not sure how I feel about it yet), what should we expect? Was it the injury last year?

KC Joyner

  (4:01 PM)

I'm actually thinking it was fatigue as much as anything. If the Vikes can find a way to use Favre less often (maybe let TJack start in the home game against Detroit, for example) I think Favre could save his energy and have a terrific season.

BJ (Des Moines, IA)

If Favre does sign with Minnesota, how do you rank the QB's in the NFC North?

KC Joyner

  (4:02 PM)

I'd have to rank them as Rodgers #1 (yes, I'd put him over Favre), Favre #2, Cutler #3 and Stafford #4.

Cosmo (Anytown, USA)

Is it too early to predict who will beat the Eagles in the NFC Championship game this year? With all of the moves the Eagles have made this year, I only expect them to lost by a couple points.

KC Joyner

  (4:03 PM)

I'd give the Giants an inside track to the NFC title game. I will say that after looking at the Bills run blocking metrics, I'm more on board with Andy Reid being right about Peters.

Felix Jones (Dallas,TX)

Can you project my stats for the upcoming year and how will the NFC East play out??

KC Joyner

  (4:04 PM)

As much as I like the Eagles, I'd still rank this division as Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and then Redskins.

Dave (NC)

Just in...Yahoo sports reports Favre turned down Vikes offer. He's staying in Miss. So now all the media folks can quit talking about it. Lets move on. Vikes...9-7 this year. Miss playoffs. Sorry.

KC Joyner

  (4:05 PM)

Dave, you have no idea how happy that report makes me (assuming it is correct). I've always thought of Favre as an overrated glory hound and will actually enjoy not having to write about him anymore.

Cosmo (Anytown, USA)

Which NYG player is most likely to shoot himself in the leg with a gun that he is hiding in his sweatpants while in a club, thereby derailing NYG's hopes for a Super Bowl?

KC Joyner

  (4:05 PM)

Cosmo, I can metricize a lot of things but that is beyond my analytical purview!

bob...new jersey [via mobile]

can u forecast or put some scientific stuff together and project what type of yr favre wouldd have if he came back. lol thx.

KC Joyner

  (4:08 PM)

OK, one more Favre question, even though we've now established he's a retiree. Favre didn't have great vertical totals last year and that's what the Vikes need at QB. Some of Favre's downfield totals were a result of the Jets not having a really good vertical threat and since the Vikes have that, his metrics there would likely improve.

Manny Ramirez (in trouble)

KC as you may have heard I'm in a bit of a situation, so I thought I'd hang out here. What are your thoughts on the Colts losing big time assistants like Moore and Mudd?

KC Joyner

  (4:10 PM)

I think it signals that Tony Dungy did more for stabilizing that organization than we may have thought. I figured their coaching staff would have stayed together. Losing Mudd could be huge, as that O line isn't as talented as their production would suggest.

Mike (Mpls)

Overrated glory hound, but still better than Cutler, and still a big boost to the vikings? I'm confused. I am already tired of the discussion, but I won't believe it until the season starts....

KC Joyner

  (4:11 PM)

The trouble with bringing Favre in would be that it would be a one-year deal (most likely). The Vikes may have a solid QB in Jackson but without putting him behind center to see if late last year was an anomaly, they'll never know.

Cosmo (Anytown, USA)

A serious question... With the pieces that the Eagles now have in place on offense, is McNabb going to be held solely accountable (right or wrong) for the success/failure of this year's team? Meaning is it Super Bowl or outta town for McNabb this year? As all Eagle fans like to remind McNabb, Kolb is looming.

KC Joyner

  (4:12 PM)

Isn't it always Super Bowl or bust for McNabb? I am with you in that with the additions they've made, Philly should be considered one of maybe 2-3 teams that are favorites for the NFC title. If they don't make it, it's just another red mark on McNabb's resume.

tom nj [via mobile]

Now that RB Brian Leonard is a Bengal, does he get to show he can play RB in NFL?

KC Joyner

  (4:13 PM)

I think they'll use him more than Stl did but I wouldn't count on him seeing the ball a ton.

Mike (SF)

Yeah, he turned it down... until next week when he's suddenly reconsidering.

KC Joyner

  (4:13 PM)

Mike, you sound jaded about this!

M (DC)

Buffalo's OL did have nice run metrics last season, but did you take into account that Peters' new team, the Eagles, rarely runs the ball?

KC Joyner

  (4:15 PM)

M, I just did a post for the NY Times Fifth Down blog about the Bills O line. It said in part that three of the Bills linemen had a POA run block win percentage under 80%, which is considered the low-end acceptable mark in that metric. Peters topped the 90% mark, so he dominated in an area where his teammates struggled. And Reid also ran the ball a lot late last year, so maybe he's thinking of doing that again now that he has a road-grader of Peters caliber.

Greg (Boston)

I know this sounds odd, but could the Pats office be better this year than in 2006? Galloway (although older) is a huge 2nd threat and having the addition of taylor in the backfield with Brady out to prove something could be huge?

KC Joyner

  (4:17 PM)

I'm with you on the Pats chances this year. Their run blocking metrics were superb (they actually graded out better overall than the Jets O line), so even if Brady takes a bit of time to get back into form, they'll be able to move the ball in other ways.

Damariea, Bay Area

Why do the Raiders get so much flack when in fact the Niners R worse. since 04 they have drafted 7 1st rounders an 2 have had an impact (Willis,Staley) Busts Woods, Smith, Lawson, Davis,& Balmer (a lil early for him but he's a 1st rounder who played special teams and goaline).

KC Joyner

  (4:18 PM)

The Raiders are getting flack because they could have picked up DHB later in the draft. They are also getting flack because DHB is a one-trick pony and if he doesn't hit the vertical passes, he'll be a complete bust.

Cosmo (Anytown, USA)

What are your thoughts on the Super Bowl possibly being played in London?

KC Joyner

  (4:19 PM)

I love anything the league does to spread the word about this game globally. A Super Bowl in London would be a great way to get American football popularized in England. My only concern would be the time change and how it would affect the teams, but as long as they get there early enough to acclimate themselves, that shouldn't be an issue.

Raiders Fans (Everywhere)

Yeah, we're not the worst!! We're not the worst!! We're not the worst!! Woo-hoo!!

KC Joyner

  (4:19 PM)

LOL!

Tom (Pa)

Hey Kc, Im a big giants fan....what do you think they will be able to do next year? Do you think they have a shot at winning there 2nd super bowl in 3 years?

KC Joyner

  (4:21 PM)

Absolutely. I loved their draft picks, especially Nicks. I did a post for the Times blog showing that he had plenty of vertical route running chops as long as it was a double move type of route (i.e. corner, post, deep in, deep out, etc.). He'll help the passing game and Sintim has terrific pass rushing skills (used 33 different pass rush move combinations in the 8 games I broke down).

M (DC)

No Super Bowl for London, until the UEFA Champions league final takes place in the States.

KC Joyner

  (4:21 PM)

Sounds fair enough to me!

Sean (Chicago)

What do you think Pace and Williams will do in improving the Bears offensive line? It seemed like Forte was forced to do a lot on his own and could avoid a soph-slump with some improved blocking... oh and a passing threat.

KC Joyner

  (4:23 PM)

I'm only part of the way through the Bears O line metrics but I did a Times post today on the Bills RBs and how they did when they had good and bad blocking. In a nutshell, the numbers are showing it does take good blocking to gain yards. Forte did well despite having subpar blocking and the additions of those two should help his metrics.

Todd (Detroit)

KC, how loudly did you curse at the television when the Red Wings late goal was overturned in Game 3?

KC Joyner

  (4:25 PM)

OK, it's Stanley Cup time so I get to answer one hockey question. Todd, they played so badly most of the game that I couldn't be too upset over that call. I'm cursing more at their lack of offensive production (where in the world is Hossa?)

Barry Sanders (somewhere)

Are you saying you need good blocking, ack in my day good blocking was a luxury not something I ever had

KC Joyner

  (4:26 PM)

The study is still in its early stages but what I am finding so far is that when at least one blocker loses a POA block, RBs tend to gain 1-2 yards. Barry is that rare player who might have been able to do well with bad POA blocking but he's definitely the exception.

Jonas Hiller

I think you might want to check my metrics. It is the reason your Wings can't score.

KC Joyner

  (4:26 PM)

Touche.

Brian (CA)

The 49ers O-line gave up a nigh number of sacks last season. I believe the main reason was our OC's (Martz) refusal to adopt his offense to the 49ers personnel. What do you think?

KC Joyner

  (4:27 PM)

I'm working on the NFC West metrics now and while I agree that the Martz system is part of why the Niners gave up sacks, the big reason is that their linemen weren't good enough.

M (DC)

Last year, the Eagles passed at 60.8 percent of their plays. They are one of six squads to throw more than 60 percent of the time in the NFL. The other five squads are Arizona (65.9), Indianapolis (62.1), Detroit (61.6), Denver (60.7) and New Orleans (60.7). I am not sure that Andy Reed has committed to run this season.

KC Joyner

  (4:29 PM)

You are on the money that the Eagles were a pass first team and that Reid is of that mentality, but look at how they leaned on the run late last year. That is what is making me think Reid might be having something of a change of heart.

Vedhas (Spartanburg, SC)

I noticed that Rod Hood was released by the Cardinals. IIRC, he played well for the Eagles and his first season with the Cards. Did his performance drop off, or do you think the Cards are making a mistake?

KC Joyner

  (4:30 PM)

Hood has been and still is a starting caliber CB. I don't have his metrics in front of me but I do remember that he was in the 7 yard range last year. Considering how the Cards got into shootouts last year, that is a very good mark.

Loner (Somewhere in the middle of no where)

help me please, my friends are begging me to get some expert analayis. is there any possilble chance the cardinals can repeat their wonderful season and maybe win a superbowl this time?? PLEASE answer me!!

KC Joyner

  (4:32 PM)

Loner, as I'm looking over the Cards tapes from last year, I'm still scratching my head as to how they managed to make the Super Bowl. Their division is pitifully weak, so another playoff berth is likely but I wouldn't be making Super Bowl travel plans just yet.

Another Raider

KC when DBey makes his 1st pro bowl we expect you to eat Crow, a awesome article, on the Raiders and how Espn knows Nothing lol

KC Joyner

  (4:33 PM)

If Heyward Bey makes a Pro Bowl, I'll be certain to do that. If he doesn't, though, can you promise that Raider nation will buy a bunch of copies of Scientific Football?

Sean (Chicago)

Another Bears Q... so many people have stated the Bears don't have a #1WR or even a #2... I saw a ton of progress from Devin Hester over the second half of the season am I crazy to think he could be a #1 with a QB that can't take advantage of how often he beats guys on double-moves?

KC Joyner

  (4:34 PM)

The thing about Hester is that he isn't ever going to be the kind of #1 like Holt or Harrison were in their day. His value is in running certain types of RAC plays (screens, slants, etc) and on speed vertical routes. He needs to be paired with another WR who can do the things he can't do.

kl (philly)

put the cards in the nfc east and they go 6-10 (from a still bitter eagle fan!)

KC Joyner

  (4:35 PM)

So you are assuming they go 6-4 outside of the division?

Michael (Indiana)

How do you think the Colts D will look this year after they didn't adress their size issue at linebacker in the the draft?

KC Joyner

  (4:36 PM)

The Colts have been one of (if not the) smallest teams and smallest defenses in the league for a while. They are a speed and position based group so not getting size may not hurt them much.

Ryan (San Diego)

Whats up KC...Chargers oline question. Most are relatively healthy this year after a rash of injuries last season. How do they stack up with the addition of Forney at guard now, replacing Goff and Clary still at RT?

KC Joyner

  (4:37 PM)

I've done about 1/4 to 1/3 of the AFC West games and I liked what I saw out of Goff and Clary. From what I've seen of Forney, I don't think he'll be an upgrade but you are right that a year's worth of relative health for that group sure wouldn't hurt.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Do you see Percy Harvin as being potentially a better all-around player than Devin Hester? Of course I'm not sure we'll get to see what kind of WR he'll be with no QB in Minnesota and all.

KC Joyner

  (4:39 PM)

I had a chance to review Harvin's metrics last year and I was both impressed and let down. He didn't run enough of the tree to show he can be a full tree kind of receiver but he ran enough of the harder routes to show that he might have full tree potential.

BSB Philly

Is the Seahwaks DL go enough to protect the LB's they have? Will those LB's have to take on to many blocks?

KC Joyner

  (4:41 PM)

From what I've seen so far, Brian, the Hawks LBs are very good at taking on and beating second level blocks. It would be great if they didn't have to do this as often but I think they'll be successful no matter what the Hawks D line does for them.

Mike (San Diego)

KC, what the heck is full tree potential?

KC Joyner

  (4:41 PM)

Meaning that a receiver can run routes on every level of the passing tree. Most receivers excel at one level of the tree (i.e. short, medium or deep/bomb) but the best can run routes effectively at all levels.

Jake Klipp

So I don't understand teams adding receivers that do things they already have covered. Isn't Maclin kind of the same WR as Desean Jackson? Good value for that pick, but it seems to me Philly had the most success when they had a big athlete to go with all of those little burners...

KC Joyner

  (4:43 PM)

Jake, you know I'm a big fan of the Eagles front office but I don't understand the Maclin pick either. They'll get something out of him but I figured the would be better off with a guy like Nicks. He'd give their offense something it hasn't had in a while, which is someone who can run the full tree (this is getting to be a forest in here with all of the tree references).

Wes (Raleigh, NC)

KC, what makes you certain of the Giants superiority to the Eagles, considering the Eagles had just as good of an offseason and beat the Giants the last two times they played?

KC Joyner

  (4:45 PM)

I give the Giants an edge because I like their O and D lines. Philly improved their O line with Peters but overall the Giants have better groups on both sides.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

KC, we are talking the Vikes here. The tree pretty much has one, maybe two branches. If Harvin can run a five yard flat and a 15 yard curl, that's about all he needs.

KC Joyner

  (4:46 PM)

Whatever the term is for a tree doctor, I think we need one of them in Minnesota!

Sean (Chicago)

While speed routes and RAC routes might plays best to Hester's strengths what is it that you see he can't do that keep him from being a complete WR?

KC Joyner

  (4:47 PM)

My scouting eye says that he doesn't do as well on routes that require cuts (i.e. deep in, deep out, comeback, etc.). That means he can't use his speed in as many ways and that is what limits him.

Mike (az)

I can't defend KL(philly)'s claim but i also do not feel that is in any way a valid argument. That happens literally every year in every sport. Also while his metrics might be decent, Rod hood does not pass the eye test anymore. NOt sure if you ahve broken down the cards-vikings game yet KC but if so enjoy those 4 tds he gave up...to TJax. Anyways have a good day.

KC Joyner

  (4:49 PM)

Yes, I saw that game where Hood had an awful performance. I'm not just trying to make excuses for the guy because I've been on his bandwagon for a few years. He had some really good games early on and I don't get the sense that he's hit the aging wall. He had a bad game. Heck, Champ Bailey's had some bad games over the years and everyone didn't throw in the towel on him. I'm not saying Hood=Bailey but hopefully you get my point.

Andy (Denver)

Can you rank the Josh McDaniels blunders from most egregious to least? 1. Cutler saga, 2. switching to a 3-4, 3. Abandoning the zone blocking scheme, 4. Drafting only one front 7 player. 5. Using their first pick on Knowshown Moreno?

KC Joyner

  (4:50 PM)

McD is making an impression on the Denver faithful! I'd rank #5 as #1, as I did not understand why they would take a RB that early when they had so many needs on D.

Andy Reid

You guys have no clue. Getting Maclin at 19 was a steal, I didn't even have Nicks rated in the first round. Maclin is similar to Jackson, but bigger/taller. These 2 will be the franchise WR's for years to come.

KC Joyner

  (4:51 PM)

No offense to Andy Reid (he's one of my favorite coaches) but the Eagles track record over the years at WR hasn't been exactly stellar. His offenses are known for doing well despite having relative weaknesses at the WR position.

Nick (Cleveland)

Who is this Abram Elam guy? Some of the writers in Cleveland are calling him the next Kerry Rhodes. How were his metrics and what do you think he will be?

KC Joyner

  (4:52 PM)

He's a rangy safety who can also play the box. He's not as good as Kerry Rhodes but he's got the potential to get pretty close to that level.

Peyton (Indy)

Man, are you bummed football season is over, what do you do all the time?

KC Joyner

  (4:53 PM)

I break down football games seven days a week for my Scientific Football book. Football season never ends in my house!

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

I think Mike from AZ's issue with Hood was that the TDs were thrown by T-Jax. It's kind of like grading on the curve and T-Jax falls on the low end.

KC Joyner

  (4:53 PM)

OK, that explains it!

Otto (CA)

Hello KC. What's on the menu tonight? Is Vernon Davis' blocking as good as everyone says?

KC Joyner

  (4:54 PM)

It looks like it might be dinner from the microwave tonight, as Mrs. Scientist doesn't have anything on the stove right now. As far as Davis goes, he does put together some pancake blocks but the early metric review says he's not consistent enough. A highlight guy, in other words.

Nick (Cleveland)

So we have two Brodney Pools? Great.

KC Joyner

  (4:55 PM)

Yeah, that pretty much says it!

Plaxico Burress

Yo KC. Have you not noticed that the Giants aren't the same team without me? I was the Eagle killer, they don't have that anymore. Sure, there hoping a couple of rooks fill the role, but there is only 1 me!

KC Joyner

  (4:57 PM)

Too true but give Nicks a year or two and then get back to me. WEll, I've got to hit the road. Two quick notes. First, I have confirmed I will be speaking at the Dr. Z function on May 18. Second, I will be posting the first Scientific Football Lab Notes later today for purchasers of Scientific Football 2009. For more info on both, check out www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all next week!