Fantasy Baseball w/Tristan Cockcroft
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Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:00 AM)
Good morning everyone! Let's get right to your questions...
Rob (NJ)
Soria owner, am I safe with Juan Cruz for the time being?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:02 AM)
For the time being, sure, but that's more because what else are you going to nab to fill in that Joakim Soria save potential? A Nationals closer? Don't make me laugh. Cruz might not be suited to hold down this kind of job for a long time, but as a month-long stand-in, I'd be OK with him. I don't buy for a second that's a real committee, not if Kyle Farnsworth is what's making it a "committee." He's terrible.
Jason (Ellicott City, MD)
I've tried Chris Davis and Branyan at 3B. Who should I be trying out this week?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:03 AM)
Davis, because he's the one of the two who plays all six of his games at Rangers Ballpark. Plus, the Mariners battle two left-handers, and that plays against Russ Branyan's strengths.
Joe (Chi-town)
Pick up Luke Hochevar and drop Wolf???
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:04 AM)
No. I still like Randy Wolf better, though if you dig a little deeper than that (in other words, find out the actually-awful pitcher you have on your bench but doesn't belong there), yes, Hochevar is a definite add for many owners.
DAVE (RI)
hey Tristan! got a ten team head to head keeper question...can only hold on to one... Porcello,R.Hill,Cahill,Masterson or zimmermann ? thanks
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:05 AM)
You can only keep one? Then right now it has to be Rick Porcello, if only because everything I've seen from him thus far indicates that he's prepared to pitch at this level. Oh, plus, his rotation spot is most secure of the bunch, that is, if Jordan Zimmermann's isn't (which is why the Nat would be No. 2 right now).
Jason (Ellicott City, MD)
If Ryan Zimmerman breaks DiMaggio's streak, then will he get recognition or will he be continually ignored?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:06 AM)
Let's get more than halfway there, could we please? Though I'll admit, I don't think Zimmerman has gotten nearly as much attention as I'd expect for a guy who has hit in 28 straight.
Malph, Boston
Should I be starting Randy Johnson today? After his last awful start, is he anything more than a matchups guy? Is this a matchup to like?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:06 AM)
Start him. Definite. Book it.
Tim (MD)
Better numbers this year: Adrian Gonzalez or Teixeira
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:07 AM)
Well, the main thing I need to tell you is that the more days in the season that pass, the greater the probability that Mark Teixeira is the more productive fantasy player of the two, because he historically has improved the nearer we get to season's end. He's a classic second-half performer. I'm an Adrian Gonzalez fan, big-time in fact, but even I can't pick him over Tex.
J. Baker (NYC)
CM Wang supposedly back by the end of the week - worth a pickup or stash one of the Price/Hanson duo instead?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:09 AM)
I don't buy that at all since the rotation order doesn't exactly support it, and besides, it's foolish for the Yankees to rush Chien-Ming Wang back into their rotation this quickly. You know what -- much as I like Wang I'm not even sure he's ready to be "fantasy useful" any quicker than either David Price or Tommy Hanson is. I bet it's June 1 before any of them is worthy of activating.
Gavin (LA)
Start Lackey or take the wait and see approach?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:11 AM)
For the record, last year I said to sit John Lackey in his first start fresh off the DL and I was dead wrong. Just so you have that information if that's important to you, but since I always advise a wait-and-see approach to pitchers coming off month-plus stays on the DL, I'm saying sit, sit and sit John Lackey this week. He'd be pitching in Texas anyway if he's back Friday or Saturday, and if memory serves he has a terrible track record there.
Greg (Ellicott City)
Best fantasy third baseman at years end...?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:11 AM)
David Wright, but Evan Longoria is not at all a bad choice there. I might sound like I'm forgetting someone but I am not.
carlos (bx,ny)
Should I try to trade away Joba while his ERA seems decent because I'm concerned that his high WHIP may portend bad things for the future. Or is the high WHIP just a product of those horribly bad first innings from his recent starts and not an indication of bad things to come? Thanks, Tristan.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:14 AM)
As a guy who closely follows Joba Chamberlain, let me point out that he has historically been a stronger pitcher with runners on than the bases empty. I know it seems silly to think pitchers can buckle down under pressure, but for some bizarre reason Joba seems OK with it. So when I see the WHIP he has I don't totally panic. It's health, and only health, that really worries me with him in the long haul. Regarding trading him, it's all a matter of what you get offered. If you're getting top-25 starter value, or close to it, I don't think you're making an unwise decision. But I sure wouldn't sell low, or make a panic move.
Matt Wieters (Norfolk, VA)
I'm hitting over .300, taking tons of walks, and am locked in.. how much longer must I wait?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:15 AM)
In the name of silliness, big business and all that is bad with baseball, you will stay in Triple-A until at least June and you will like it!
Steve
What's up with Berkman?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:18 AM)
A good friend of mine actually asked me this very question recently, and the best advice I had for him was that over the course of Lance Berkman's career he has had mini-slumps like this, one bad month and all, and then other times in those same seasons had some of the most ridiculous hot streaks I have ever seen. Based on that, I can't advise you do anything but be patient, because to the degree that he could prove you wrong for giving up on him, you can't give up on him.
Andrew (NYC)
Bailey, Cruz or Ray for vulture saves?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:19 AM)
Well, I think Juan Cruz is a very smart add right now, but for the record, keep the name Andrew Bailey in mind as a mega-sleeper for saves. Brad Ziegler is having some real issues with his illness and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a brief time out to heal up.
INJURED Lance Berkman
Can you comment on my bum wrist?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:20 AM)
Best I can tell you is the Astros view it as day-to-day, it doesn't seem serious on the surface but it's not like they're all that forthcoming with the info. I'm sure Stephania will have more for you on his status this week, but ask yourself, are you really going to undercut his value in a trade right now just because of this? There's nothing you can do, again, but be patient with him.
Rich Garces (Baahstaan)
Tristan, you are the real EL GUAPO! With Bard getting the call, I can't help but look forward to the Sawx next youth movement. What do you think of Mikey Bowden and when/if he helps THIS year? Is he ahead of Buch now for the next callup?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:22 AM)
Thanks for the compliment! With regard to the Red Sox -- and jeez, could they have a more constant stream of quality prospects climbing the latter? -- I think Clay Buchholz's only way he's breaking into Boston is through the rotation. Period. So yeah, maybe Bowden gets the call first, if the team wants him for relief help. For fantasy? Buchholz has a lot more appeal in the short and long term, I'd say.
BJ - NJ
Please name a few AL minor leaguers besides the big names (Price, Weiters) that may make their way up to the majors and produce this season. Thanks.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:24 AM)
BJ, remember that in the chat, I've got about 30 seconds to formulate you an answer, so in such cases, I think it's understandable that one big sleeper is going to come to mind, and I'm going to harp on that one as a result. And that one is Nolan Reimold. Look at what he's doing in Triple-A ball: .381 BA, 8 homers, 25 RBIs, 28 games. And it's not like the Orioles are totally set in left field. I think he'll be up before long at this pace.
Tyler (VT)
THC, I am thinking about picking up Carp and stashing him. What do you expect from him when he gets back, and do you have any inside info regarding a target date to return?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:25 AM)
When I think of Chris Carpenter I think of a perfect risk/reward guy, because when he's healthy he's great, but he's not healthy all that often. Kind of like Rich Harden, know what I mean? No, no inside info for you unfortunately, but last I heard it sounded like he could be back about a month from now. And maybe that means he'll get 15 starts of a low-threes ERA? I wouldn't complain about that.
James (NY)
Glad to see the fantasy staff's resident Yankee fan on board as I have a question about Johnny Damon. How much do you consider him a sell high candidate? I love his HR potential in the park, but realize he can't keep it up to this extent. Would Ricky Nolasco be a good value in return?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:28 AM)
James, you might get a chuckle out of this, but as a result of some of my anti-Yankee comments over the years, I've actually been called a "Red Sox-loving-Yankee-hater." You gotta be objective, and when I look at Damon, I do say he's a mild sell-high candidate, but I'd also advise caution with that, because he is a contract-year player and, as you said, there's the ballpark factor. It's not crazy to think he can range between a .290 and .300 batting average, and 25 and 30 homers. I'd say the smart person estimates he bats .290, belts 25, steals 20 bases. Is that too much for Ricky Nolasco? Yeah, probably, but I only say that because I think Nolasco's slight health risk makes him a bit less valuable over the long haul.
Derek Lee (IL)
Will I play this week and does it matter?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:30 AM)
I haven't heard the MRI results and I did hear rumors of a possible DL stint, and yes, it absolutely matters because the matchups are extraordinary if he does play. Wish I could give you a clear call on his health, but I cannot, and that means he slips into the category of "frustratingly risky play." And I feel like such a jinx on the Cubs, knowing how high I was on them in my Forecaster, and now how they've been riddled by injury over the weekend. Sheesh. Is that bad luck or what?
Keifer (NYC)
If you don't answer my question, I'll headbutt you. Tell me about Brett Cecil. Should I use him this week (vs CHW) over Manny Parra (vs FL and @ STL)?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:32 AM)
You scare me, Keifer, but I do love your show. Ahhhh, only nine hours, 30 minutes more. And that's really a call of the value of quantity of stats in your league. Parra has done well enough, and the Marlins K-happy enough, that I'd probably go with the quantity.
INJURED Lance Berkman
So he's day-to-day? Would you start him this week if you're only other option was going to a slim wavier wire?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:33 AM)
Yup. And the main reason for that is that if he comes back and plays every game and plays it well, you're going to hate yourself for benching him. I know these are frustrating circumstances but that's just the game. It's part of why a lot of leagues I've seen have started allowing mid-week changes for DLed players -- Tout Wars allows that. I'm probably going to propose it in my personal leagues for next season, too, though I admit by saying that I just want there to be a discussion about it, not necessarily that I'm 100 percent in line with the idea.
Hussein (Venezuela)
Which are the best pitchers for the week? That dh recommend? Thank you
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:34 AM)
Check out the Forecaster -- the good info is there!
Derek Lowe
Are you pitching me tonight against Johan and the Mets?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:35 AM)
I don't have the luxury of sitting you in any of the leagues in which I play, so that's the answer to your question. Do I think you're going to get the best of Johan Santana and win and be a fantasy superstar for this very night only? No, I don't. But I don't see you being a poor choice to start in a high percentage of fantasy leagues. Hope that description makes sense to you. I don't believe you have to win to be fantasy-useful.
Don Dekinger (K.C.)
Who is the best of the three KC pitchers from here on? Davies, Bannister or Hochevar?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:36 AM)
Oh boy do I wish that were an easier question to answer. The first thing my gut tells me is it's not Brian Bannister. I think he's the weakest long-term bet of the bunch. Gut says Luke Hochevar. Drafted as a top-shelf prospect, was lights-out in the minors, I think his ceiling is highest. Might be the most boom/bust of the bunch but it's a shot I'd take.
Craig Stuart (Victoria, BC)
Who do you think will be closing for the Nats now?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:39 AM)
A committee. It's genuinely a committee. And in no way do I think that Joe Beimel wasn't closing the other day is surprising. He's lefty, and as the Braves did against the Phillies yesterday, the lefty is often going to be needed in a point in the game that is not necessarily the final three outs. There's still a very real chance that Joel Hanrahan leads this team in saves ... but I don't say that with much excitement, let me tell you that.
Dude (LA)
What about Wuertz in Oakland? With two saves already, does he get the nod over Bailey if not Ziegler?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:41 AM)
Sure he could, and he's pitching well enough to close, absolutely. But so is Bailey, and my note from earlier was "sleeper." He's quickly becoming to this year what Brad Ziegler was to last, and Ziegler was supposed to close this year when Joey Devine got hurt. That shuffling of those guys demonstrates that any of them, really, could be "the guy."
Jem (Westchester, NY)
Call-up alerts! If Reimold comes up today for Scott, would you take a shot with him over Dan Murphy this week in a 12 team mixed roto league if you need power and average? And does Happ make a start in the double-header against Washington this week and stick?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:43 AM)
That's a lot of "ifs," Jem, but sure, if all of those planets align (and I'm not saying it's impossible), sure. Reimold has the power to be worth an add, and a start in deeper formats. As for J.A. Happ, I do personally believe he's the guy getting the spot start, but every single piece of reporting in the Philly area seems to indicate he's not even promised that turn (hence the "TBD" in that game in my Forecaster), and that leads me to wonder whether he'll only get the call if he's not needed in relief sooner, and that even if he does get that start and impresses, the Phillies will look at it more like "OK, well, in another week or two maybe if we're sick of this starter or that, we'll go to Happ."
Whitney, NYC
Weekly line-up time! Liriano vs Yankees or pick up Sonnastine or Parra OR OR OR start Kevin Gregg as 3rd closer (starting K-Rod and Wood as well). thanks Tristan!
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:45 AM)
Francisco Liriano is an extremely tough read for this week, let me point that out. I think he's a scary start in road games against good offenses, and there's the ballpark factor too, but then there's also that the Yankees are a bit lefty-heavy and that tilts things back to Frankie. In this particular spot, I'd probably go Andy Sonnanstine. I just like the matchups better, and there are two of them.
Dan (Champaign)
Which is for real: Uehara (5 straight QS) or Zito (4 straight QS)? Both available in FA pool. Who's the add?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:46 AM)
Koji Uehara. But that's mainly because we don't know that overall, he stinks.
Fish in DC
thoughts on Chris Coghlan?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:48 AM)
Good prospect, deserves a shot to play, should be more productive than Emilio Bonifacio has been the past three weeks (yet both of them will be in the lineup, not Coghlan over Bonifacio). Though I will say this: I look at Chris Coghlan's minor league stats and say, "Wow, that's Denard Span." Think a walks guy without overwhelming power who can steal a base. Sounds like Span a year ago, meaning your ceiling is actually pretty good. But this isn't a 30-homer guy.
Benjamin (Boston)
A guy is desperately trying to unload Matt Holiday in our league. What will his numbers look like at the end of the season? What is his value right now? A solid buy-low or stay away?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:48 AM)
A big-time buy-low. For reasons I've listed many times in past chats.
Bret Cecil
You buying?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:49 AM)
Yes, if only because of the command numbers. Though it needs to be pointed out that the Blue Jays have yet to face the Red Sox, Rays or Yankees this season. The tougher matchups are coming, so it's not a massive investment I'm putting in.
Bob (philly)
Do you like Ubaldo as a two start pitcher this week?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:49 AM)
Yes because of the matchups (vs. HOU, @PIT).
Jack (in the box)
Burgers....mmmmmm...burgers.....Morneau or Ibanez? Who puts up the better numbers the rest of the year? Position doesn't matter. Also- Ellbsury/Oswalt for Soriano- fair trade? Thanks!
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:51 AM)
You know, I've never eaten at a Jack in the Box in my life, despite having seen so many of the commercials over the years. Just none of them anywhere near where I live! (Sonic, neither.) I still stay with Justin Morneau over the long haul. Having Joe Mauer back in the lineup helps him. And as for the trade, I actually think that's a bit much for Alfonso Soriano, but I don't think it's the kind of deal I'd veto. I just prefer the other side.
Jon (NY)
Melky's got a .406 OBP and has cut down on his K's while walking more. Has he completely taken the CF job from Gardner and do you see a breakout year? Is .290 25 70 15 possible?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:53 AM)
I do think Melky Cabrera has stepped up and nabbed the larger portion of the center-field split, and the ballpark will help his power potential, but the ballpark has been helping his power potential a bit more than should be expected, and Brett Gardner isn't exactly going to get 50 at-bats the rest of the year. What I'm telling you is you're onto something, but this is no huge revelation. Let's say your projection isn't impossible, but I still see Melky coming up a tad short of those numbers across the board.
Dave, RI
Is it worth stashing Soria on the DL if you got room?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:54 AM)
Uh, yes. At least until we know whether this is a season-ending thing. (I did not just use those words as a scare tactic, it's possible but right now it has been reported as a 15-day thing. Best I can tell you.)
Bernie (w/e @)
Am i crazy to take a flier on Reimold? I have Sizemore/Soriano/Lind/Fowler/Maybin in the OF - i'd have to drop Garret Mock. Reimold give me more than Mock at RP?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:54 AM)
Yes.
Erik (Seattle)
What do you expect from Stephen Drew when he comes back? Is he a legitimate Top 5 SS the rest of the season?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:54 AM)
I think he can be, yes. It's not like steals were any vast portion of his fantasy potential, and that's the category that would concern me most looking forward.
Jon Lester (Homerville)
What is going on with me? Its not like I can't get anyone out (49 Ks), but I am getting shelled? Will I turn it around?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:57 AM)
Command numbers, command numbers, command numbers. The only one that bothers me with Lester is his home runs per nine, and by the way, he has a 14.0 home run/fly ball percentage. That's abnormally high, and bound to come down. I'd term Lester a big-time buy-low.
Rob (State College)
Tristan!! Never had you answer a question of mine in all the time I've been reading your chats and columns!! I can really use some advice this morning - I've got Soria going on the DL. I can swap Liriano for Broxton, would you do that? My other SPs are: Johan, Grienke, Billingsley, Cueto, and Slowey. My current RPs are: Soria, Fuentes, Franklin, and Rafael Soriano.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:57 AM)
In your particular spot? Yes, I would. Jonathan Broxton looks great, he'll have more close leads to protect with Manny out of that lineup, and the way your staff is structured that seems like a brilliant deal for you.
Jason (Ellicott City, MD)
What are you having for lunch?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (11:58 AM)
Wish I knew. Not a lot on hand to choose from. Open to suggestions!
Greg (Ellicott City)
How good will Bedard be for the rest of the year? Is it time to trade him before his arm falls off?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:00 PM)
Let's just say that if you could deal Erik Bedard as a top-25 fantasy starting pitcher, then I'd make the deal. If I couldn't, I think he has too much potential to let go cheaper. In other words, there's some doubt with me that he's going to make it through the year unscathed, but I like what he offers in his healthy starts too much to just get rid of him for less than prime value.
Kentucky Grilled Chicken
Dry....and not very good. Get a 5 dollar footlong.Then tell me who to roster out of Zimmermann, Bush, Wolf, and Uehara!
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:01 PM)
I appreciate the advice on that one, because I hadn't tried "KGC" yet and was a little hesitant to do so! (Wasn't a fan of them before the switch anyway.) Out of that group, I feel like Randy Wolf is the pick. Most reliable from turn to turn.
Ryan (MD)
You could also go for Ramen noodles....What's your take on sitting badly struggling studs in weekly formats? Sizemore is not even stealing successfully lately, not to mention his terrible average.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:03 PM)
My roommate in college used to have cases of those all over the place, and I was never all that much a fan. As for a guy like Grady Sizemore, there's no way I could make the case to sit him. Not a chance. Way too valuable to risk sitting in a week he goes off. But in general, I'd say such decisions depend on the strength of your alternatives. In most leagues, there's no way you'll find a player useful enough to justify activating ahead of Sizemore.
am I too late?
Bedard or Saunders both home against Bos this week...which one?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:04 PM)
I'd play Erik Bedard of those two, no matter how well Joe Saunders has pitched. I just don't like a guy with his strikeout rate going up against Boston.
Gary - AZ
I'm guessing a guy like you would like a Pulled Pork Sandwich... Now what do you see of Hochevar for this season?
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:05 PM)
That new White Castle commercial is disturbing on so many levels. Luke Hochevar is a matchups type, period. I have said add him, but if you're talking full-year projection, think low-fours ERA, and you sit him every time against Boston, and the Yankees ... you get the idea.
Tristan H. Cockcroft (12:06 PM)
OK folks, time to go and tend to lunch. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I didn't get to yours. Take care everyone, and I'll see you again on Wednesday!
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