KC Joyner

  (4:00 PM)

Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!

john [via mobile]

what are ur thoughts on j.flacco. i think he looks like the 2nd coming of dan mcgwire. he is so overrated!

KC Joyner

  (4:01 PM)

I have to completely disagree on Flacco. His had double digit vertical pass YPA totals after the midway point of the season. That's a terrific mark for a rookie and should only improve over time.

Don, Chi-Town

Anquan Boldin for the Bears, Micheal Vick for the 49er's which would be the best fit, I am a fan of both teams.

KC Joyner

  (4:02 PM)

Boldin by far. The Bears are in need of an all-around WR (well, OK, they really just need any help at WR they can get) and Boldin would more than fill that gap.

Jake Klipp (Milwaukee, WI)

I'm going to Boston tonight. Vacation.

KC Joyner

  (4:03 PM)

Jake Klipp, regular poster, gives us his travel plans. Um, thanks?

eric ny [via mobile]

looking at the steelers o-line kc, which player or players do u think are the weak link? rg and rt are my concerns.

KC Joyner

  (4:04 PM)

To be blunt, I think the entire O line for Pittsburgh could use an upgrade. They didn't grade out badly in the run metrics I've done on them so far (about 1/4 of the way through their season at this point) but their pass blocking leaves a ton to be desired. They are beaten for far too many one-on-one sacks and it hindered the Steelers vertical pass attack too often.

Richard (Greensboro, NC)

Do you believe McDaniels will be successful in Denver and make them a playoff team in the next few years? I know there is a chance and there is hope, but do you believe Denver will be strong under McDaniels?

KC Joyner

  (4:07 PM)

The Broncos have a lot of personnel issues, far too many to be successfully dealt with in one year. They also need some retooling on offense. The AFC West is not a strong division right now and in a couple of years SD could drop off, so I can see Denver being successful under McD in 2-3 years if he makes good defensive moves. I just don't see it happening this year.

Nick (San Diego)

Boston for vacation? Really?

KC Joyner

  (4:07 PM)

I guess that could be called a West Coast bash!

Andrew Bucholtz (Kingston, Ontario)

KC, if you could change one thing about the way NFL GMs and coaches evaluate talent, what would it be?

KC Joyner

  (4:09 PM)

I think they should try to find a way to metricize toughness. Too many high profile college players hit the NFL and simply cannot take the punishment the league dishes out.

Wes (LA)

How do you rate the cowboys OLine? Arent they built more for a power run game?

KC Joyner

  (4:10 PM)

I reviewed the Boys O line for a mag being published by Maple Street Press this summer. The gist of the metric findings were that a) Leonard Davis is very overrated and b) they are good at all types of running plays depending on the back carrying the ball.

Xander (Philly)

How do you feel about the idea of extending the season a few games?

KC Joyner

  (4:11 PM)

I'm all for it on one level in that more football is always a good thing, but another week also equals 16 more games for me to break down. That means a lot more work but, hey, all in all it would be a good tradeoff.

Rob (DC)

KC, regulars league? I'd like to avenge my top scoring, fifth place finish.

KC Joyner

  (4:12 PM)

I'll take you up on that! I'll put out an announcement of that nature once the fantasy season starts getting going.

Broad Street Brian (Philly)

who takes a bigger step back? Ryan or Flacco? Seems like Ryan has a higher perach to fall from.

KC Joyner

  (4:13 PM)

Great question. I'd agree that Ryan is the more likely candidate both because he has further to fall and because at some point he'll regress to his collegiate habit of making a lot of bad decisions.

dan (huntsville)

2 questions. 1. have you run the metrics on the NFC south offensive lines? 2. How do you think Greer/porter/jenkins will do as cornerbacks in Gregg Williams defense? Thanks.

KC Joyner

  (4:14 PM)

I'm working on the NFC West this week and will be going to the NFC East after that. Greer has had terrific metrics for a couple of years now and Porter had a great start last year before getting hurt. The NO secondary could be one of the most talented in the league.

Jeff (South San Francisco, CA)

Is Jason Campbell a victim of constant playbook turnover and mediocre skill players/offensive linemen, or is he just an average QB?

KC Joyner

  (4:15 PM)

I'll go with the former. Campbell had a stretch last year where he went something like 4 games without making a bad decision. That's hard to do, even in a safe offense like the one Zorn was operating. The Skins just need to stick with him and they will like how this story ends.

brett favre (kiln, mississippi)

dont forget about me KC. i am getting ready soon.

KC Joyner

  (4:16 PM)

How in the world can I? It's all every reporter in the league seems to want to write about.

Wes (Raleigh, NC)

Whenever a question is posed about a team's O-line, you already reference their run-blocking metrics; is this because that's the aspect that is most accessible to numerical analysis (compared to pass-pro)? Also, what do you expect from the Iggles' O-line this year?

KC Joyner

  (4:18 PM)

I start with the run blocking metrics because that is a core metric I am working on for Scientific Football 2009. I'll also be doing metrics on pass blocking but I'm in a run blocking mode at the moment, so I tend to lean in that direction. I like the Eagles acquisition of Peters a ton, as his POA win percentage was 90.1% (with anything over 90 being among the best in the league).

Chris (Jersey)

Brandon Pettigrew is the most complete TE prospect since Daniel Graham. Must have heard that ten time on draft day. You think Dan Graham is woefully overpaid, so you must hate that Pettigrew went before round three, right?

KC Joyner

  (4:19 PM)

My issue with Graham is that he was paid big money to fill a blocking TE role. I don't have a problem paying pass catchers top dollars because they are hard to find at that position but a good run blocking TE is usually not worth that kind of dough.

Broad Street Brian (Philly)

Will the availability of corners like Rod Hood hamper the Eagles ability to trade Sheldon Brown? For the record, I still believe that would be a mistake.

KC Joyner

  (4:20 PM)

Getting Hood back would not be a mistake for Philly because he is still a better than average CB. Losing Brown would be a huge mistake, as he was one of the best CBs YPA-wise last year.

Chris (Jersey)

I know you won't let me in a regular's league next year after beating you every (3? 4?) time our teams met. And I drafted Tom Brady!

KC Joyner

  (4:21 PM)

Chris, I fear no one! Bring it on and I will avenge last year's defeats!

Demetric (Orlando)

Hey KC, it seems every year the NFC South have a hot-patado who wants it divison title, do you see my Falcons emerging this year for the crown

KC Joyner

  (4:22 PM)

I've only had a chance to look at a couple of Falcons games in detail so far but I really like what I've seen. Their O line can do both man and zone run blocking and their D was better than I thought it would be. This team is on the upswing and I've got them winning the division in 09.

brian (de)

What can reasonably be expected from Cameron Wake this year? Have you seen any tape on him? Is he really like a first day draft pick?

KC Joyner

  (4:23 PM)

I have been asked about Wake dozens of times but I honestly haven't had a chance to look at any tape of him. Given the buzz he is generating, I am chomping at the bit to review a DVD of him.

Chris (Jersey)

Well, now that I moved back to the east coast, I can be a lot more regular in your chats in order to qualify for the league. Lets see how many Dan Graham questions you'll answer in an hour!

KC Joyner

  (4:24 PM)

I know we keep track of longevity records on chats but I don't think there is yet a mark for Dan Graham questions in an hour!

Xander (Philly)

Do you like the direction of where the Cleveland Jets are going?

KC Joyner

  (4:26 PM)

Yes and no. I'll be writing about this in SF 2009 but the gist of my thoughts on Mangini is that he requires a certain type of player to win. He doesn't have enough of those guys in Cleveland just yet but give him a season or so and he'll get a group of his guys together.

Broad Street Brian (Philly)

Will H. Nicks be able to step in a fill Plex's shoes? Seems like most rookies would not be able to handle the extra coverage.

KC Joyner

  (4:27 PM)

I am on the Nicks bandwagon big time. I did a review of his senior season for the NY Times blog, the gist of which is that he can be dominant on all of the vertical throws except the go route. NY will like what he gives them.

brian (de)

What does it take to be a regular? It is sometimes hard to think of legitimate questions during this downtime of the NFL year.

KC Joyner

  (4:28 PM)

Coming up with questions in the offseason is the curveball of being a chat regular!

Ryan, SF

any jamarcus russell metrics? the local media here questions whether he can be a great starting QB? how about jeff garcia?

KC Joyner

  (4:30 PM)

His bad decision metrics for most of last season were really good. If memory serves me correct, he had a stretch with only one of them in four games, which is nearly as good as what Campbell did. As far as Garcia goes, I question if he has the endurance to be a full-time starter but if a team were willing to make him an alternate starter (kind of like what the Giants did in the 1950s), he'd be a great fit.

Dan (DC)

To the earlier Campbell question -- does your "no bad decision" metric only include instances where the player did not throw into coverage, or does it also include instances when a quarterback should have thrown the ball down the field, but did not (opting instead for a dump off to the TE or RB)? Because it seems like Campbell's biggest issue last year was the unwillingness to throw it downfield.

KC Joyner

  (4:31 PM)

The bad decision metric gauges how often a QB does something with the ball that either leads to a turnover or a near turnover (e.g. dropped interception). It doesn't penalize a QB for checking the ball down. It is most useful when used in conjunction with YPA, as a low YPA and low bad decision rate is not a good combination.

Quinn (Houston)

It seems like the Texans are trendy playoff prediction these days...do yo buy the hype?

KC Joyner

  (4:32 PM)

Absolutely, as long as Schaub stays healthy. The biggest reason is their vertical YPA. Schaub ranked 2nd in the league in that metric and Rosenfels 3rd. That's how good their passing game is.

Chris (Jersey)

KC, I think we can pretty much rest assured that you already have the record for Dan Graham questions in an hour based on previous chats. But just to be safe, what do you think Dan Graham's favorite thing for breakfast is?

KC Joyner

  (4:33 PM)

OK, we now have the record on Graham! And I have no idea what he likes for breakfast.

Xander (Philly)

Do your metrics only apply to NFL players or college players too?

KC Joyner

  (4:34 PM)

I've done some metric reviews on college players. They are most useful in gauging certain skill sets that can transfer over to the pros. They are largely useless from a level of competition perspective.

Mike (San Diego)

KC, I'm reading a lot of articles saying the Bears will win their division...based on the Cutler acquisition, obviously. I think the kid is a shmuck! Where do you see them ending in the division? I'll say 3rd place.

KC Joyner

  (4:35 PM)

I wouldn't go far as to call him names, but I will point out that he had the worst bad decision mark in the league last year. He has always been around the 5% mark in this area (meaning one out of 20 of his passes are either picked off or nearly picked off due to a mistake on his part). Chicago will see that he is another Rex Grossman (which, oddly enough, means they could go to another Super Bowl).

Jeff (East Bay, CA)

KC...what are your thoughts on the Jets' David Clowney and Chansi Stuckey? Can either of them fill in admirably for Coles? Maybe even turn into a decent #1? Or am I dreaming?

KC Joyner

  (4:36 PM)

I didn't see enough on tape of Clowney to make a strong judgment. In Stuckey's case, most of his production came when he wasn't being covered by a CB. He needs to prove he can beat CBs before I'll be on his bandwagon.

Ryan, SF

reggie bush question. it seems like the saints only use him on swing routes. do have metrics for him on swing routes vs all other routes. to me he seems like he would be dangerous on crossing patterns or angle routes

KC Joyner

  (4:38 PM)

I have been tracking route types this season and will be including some of them in SF 2009. I haven't done much on Bush yet (NFC South is still a couple of weeks away) but from what I've seen thus far, they did try to use him quite often on screen/swing plays to get him in space near the line of scrimmage.

Broad Street Brian (Philly)

Please say you are having another fanasty league this year! If so, I want in!... please.

KC Joyner

  (4:38 PM)

Brian, I ran three last year and you are the third person to ask about 2009 in this chat! If that is any indication, I'll be running more than 3 this year!

Cosmo (Anytown, USA)

Do you care that the NFL and Comcast have finally come to an agreement?

KC Joyner

  (4:40 PM)

I do in the sense that I didn't like that some of the big games weren't being seen by many fans because of the lack of agreement. I'm of the mindset that keeping games away from fans is not good for the league overall, so anything that helps more fans see more games is a plus in my book.

Jim (Boston)

No question, just wanted to thank you for stepping up for Dr. Z the other night!

KC Joyner

  (4:41 PM)

Jim, it was a total pleasure. I owe the man more than I can ever repay. I don't know if you saw it, but I did a post about a very special signature moment I had with Dr. Z on the NY Times blog. Check it out if you have a moment.

Shaun (Rochester)

Please tell us again how JP Losman is going to be a good QB because of his "metrics"...

KC Joyner

  (4:41 PM)

If I've said it once, I've said it 1,000 times. Put Losman on a team that has a vertical pass mindset and he'll be a Pro Bowler.

steve (seattle)

Peter King wrote earlier in this week about the "ZIM" charity function. Couple of questions 1) how was that and did you see younger players and coaches that supported this or was it just the old guard? 2) Peter eluded that you feel the Chargers are one of the great teams this year and to look out for them. As a Charger fan I would like you to elaborate please.

KC Joyner

  (4:44 PM)

It was a combination of both. One of the coolest parts on that front was something Sal Paolantonio set up. He wanted to see the younger generation of sportswriters represented and worked with some organizations to get them to sponsor some college students who wanted to get into the sportswriting profession. One of them, a lady named Casey (can't forget a cool name like that!) actually got a very good question in for the coaches. As far as SD goes, I just think they are still the most physically talented team in the AFC.

Jeff (East Bay, CA)

Non-scientific question, but to follow up on what Cosmo said...Why is there all this focus on the Comcast/NFL Network debate, but nothing is ever said on DirecTV's stranglehold on NFL Sunday Ticket? Seems to me that the two are analagous at least...

KC Joyner

  (4:46 PM)

They are but as I understand it, the NFL has opened up the Sunday Ticket package to more cable operators. Not sure about the specifics but it shows that the league realizes how that package is making it harder for fans to be fans (something I talked about in great length in Blindsided).

PT (Franklin, NC)

So if Jamarcus Russell does happen to go all in on the "Bust" label this year do you think JP Losman would be a good fit in Oakland, you know how much Al Davis digs the long ball?

KC Joyner

  (4:46 PM)

I'm still wondering why Oakland hasn't pursued Losman. He'd be a great fit in their O in so many ways.

SprungOnSports (Long Island)

Regarding your NYT piece on Chris Long, do you think the regime change in St Louis will benefit him? And where he was picked, and who his father is automatically made him overhyped.

KC Joyner

  (4:48 PM)

I firmly believe Long will make a Mario Williams-type improvement and be a Pro Bowl player in year three. My big beef with him was that he was getting far too much hype because he was Howie's son. It's not his or Howie's fault but I still don't like that much undeserved hype.

Anthony (nyc)

Big fan KC. I get your fantasy draft guide every yr now..Have u done the metrics on the washington redskins OL and if so i wouuld love to know who is done and who can still play?

KC Joyner

  (4:49 PM)

Thanks very much for getting the guide every year! I'll be working on some material for the 09 version in the next few weeks. I'm a good portion of the way through the Skins and should be starting on the NFC East as whole early next week. Check back with me then and I'll send some specific numbers your way!

Drew (New Orleans)

Is there any chance that the Saints would pick up Derrick Brooks? And can Pierre Thomas succeed as a #1 back.

KC Joyner

  (4:50 PM)

The Saints D will be in shootouts every game and Brooks simply doesn't have the speed to keep up in that kind of situation. And I do like Thomas within certain limitations of usage (i.e. not sure he can handle too many carries, may have to split them with someone else).

Josh (Sheboygan, WI)

So what are the odds the Packers, with the current defensive roster they have, can pull off switching to the 3-4 this season sucessfully? I have my doubts as to whether or not we have the personel to make it work here.

KC Joyner

  (4:51 PM)

I did a review on Raji and can say he'll do just fine as a NT. I also think GB will do fine on plugger LBs but I'm not sure they have the rush LBs needed to make a really good 34 D.

Mike (mpls)

Kinda late, so if it doesn't get in... Any metrics for coaches, KC? I don't believe in chilly, but I always thought Tice got a bad rap....

KC Joyner

  (4:54 PM)

Some of this year's metrics will showcase some coaching metrics as it relates to usage of players. As far as Childress goes, I have to mention the video he made for Dr. Z. It was a faux Rocky-workout with the Vikings mascot Viktor and was incredibly funny. The guy has a sense of humor that you would not think he has. The Vikes would do well to get that video on the Internet, as all of the Vikes fans who don't like Chilly might have a change of heart (well, at least until he makes another questionable playcall).

PT (Franklin, NC)

Have you looked at Oakland's Oline metrics, seems like they started to look competent at the end of the year, once they replaced Kwame Harris?

KC Joyner

  (4:55 PM)

The Raiders are going to miss Jake Grove, as his POA win totals were much better than his replacement Samson Satele's (low 90s in POA win for Grove, high 70s for Satele).

Matt Williamson (Bristol)

Did I mention that the Green Bay Packers switching to the 3-4 Defense is the WORST IDEA EVER!!!

KC Joyner

  (4:56 PM)

Not sure if that is the real Matt Williamson but the sentiment is one that many Packers fans have.

Joe (MPLS)

I think it's crap that as a Comcast subsriber I can't the Sunday Ticket. And I have many friends who feel the same way. Why does the NFL alienate a large portion of fans this way? It just doesn't make sense.

KC Joyner

  (4:57 PM)

Joe, I couldn't agree more. And one of the posters put up a post that I cannot find now saying that only certain parts of the Sunday Ticket package are available to non-DirecTV subscribers. I couldn't agree more with you that this mindset alienates fans.

Nate (Madison)

So Green Bay's D might have a couple growing pains this year, and are probably a year away with more additions from having it right?

KC Joyner

  (4:59 PM)

Yeah, but the issue for them will be by the time that happens, both Woodson and Harris will probably start dropping off in effectiveness because of age. They are among the best CB tandems in the league right now and they'll be misused in a zone front. In fact, that entire D has been built around heavy man coverage for a while now and changing to zone is a really odd idea.

Cosmo (Anytown, USA)

That was me. Comcast is only getting access to aspects of Sunday Ticket with the new agreement - it will NOT have the games themselves. The games are what people want, but the NFL/DirecTV values the dollar over the fans.

KC Joyner

  (4:59 PM)

There's the post I was looking for!

Sidney Crosby (Pit)

I am waiting for you boys. This year, its going to be different.

KC Joyner

  (5:00 PM)

You guys lost Hossa to us and you think it is going to be different?

joe(NYC)

will dustin keller help alleviate the lack of great WR's on the jets?

KC Joyner

  (5:01 PM)

Absolutely. He had more than solid numbers when flexing out as a WR (I believe his YPA was in the low 8s in that area). Look for him to get a lot of slot passes next year. Well, got to wrap things up now. Hope to see you all here next week!