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Rob Neyer

  (12:03 PM)

Hey, there. Sorry I'm a few minutes late, but you don't want to see me in the morning before I've had my decaffeinated mango passion fruit tea. Anyway, enough about my problems. What are yours?

Gary (Buckeye Az.)

What is the problem with the cubs?

Rob Neyer

  (12:05 PM)

Ah, the Cubs. Just one of many examples of my fine prognosticating this spring. The injuries sure haven't helped, though I suppose some of those should have been predicted. Did anyone figure that Alfonso Soriano would be this lousy?

Doug (New Rochelle, NY)

Hi Rob - Would the Yanks consider grooming Hughes to be MO's heir apparent, should he continue to excel in the bullpen. He certainly throws hard enough, has a nasty breaking ball, etc. Why not, if they are intent on keeping Joba in the rotation.

Rob Neyer

  (12:07 PM)

It just doesn't make sense to turn a guy into a reliever until he's failed as a starter. Which Hughes has not, yet. If the Yankees don't have room for him as a starter, they should trade him.

SprungOnSports (Long Island)

Do you have any problem with Adrian Beltre getting this surgery when the Mariners are right in the thick of things? It seems suspicious considering he was playing on Sunday and he's in the final year of his contract.

Rob Neyer

  (12:09 PM)

Have you seen his hitting stats? I don't doubt that he was actually hurt, and hurting. It's bad luck for the M's, but I don't see how you can fault Beltre.

Marcel (NY)

How do you feel about the Hinske trade?

Rob Neyer

  (12:12 PM)

He's cheap and he's versatile, and I'm sure he'll pick up a big hit or two this summer. He's not much of a hitter, though.

Brian ((Hamden,CT))

with Mike Lowell going down and possibly DL who do you think we can get via trade or do the red sox stay within.

Rob Neyer

  (12:15 PM)

Well, of course that depends on the length of the DL stay. Youkilis is fine at third base but Kotsay's not an every-day first baseman. Not a good one, anyway. It would help if Jed Lowrie were available.

Jon (Bay Area, CA)

Do you still doubt the Rays' 90 run differential?

Rob Neyer

  (12:16 PM)

I've been a believer for all or most of the season; you must be confusing me with someone else who got a lot of teams wrong this spring (but not the Rays).

Justin (Minneapolis)

Who wins AL MVP?

Rob Neyer

  (12:20 PM)

Among the top candidates: Justin Morneau (as usual), Jason Bay, Mark Teixeira, and Evan Longoria. I'd like to throw Joe Mauer in there, but the voters obviously hate him.

Bryan (Tampa)

Rob.. Would a little realignment be in order if the Rays had the 3rd best record in baseball and were left out of the playoffs? Shouldn't there be a special exemption?

Rob Neyer

  (12:21 PM)

Umm, there's something beautiful about a great team *not* making the playoffs. Think about the drama in September!

steve (seattle)

Rob, I know it is a couple years away but what do you see happening with Felix Hernandez? He is going to comand a huge contract, can the Mariners afford him or can they afford not to? In a city that has lost Griffey (in his prime) A-Rod and Randy Johnson...what do you see happening him signing with another team, staying with the Mariners or getting traded? thanks.

Rob Neyer

  (12:22 PM)

Seattle's one of the best markets in the majors, so there's no reason to think the M's can't afford to pay Hernandez the going rate.

john (sd)

What are the Giants chances of having 3 All Stars? Cain, Lincecum, and Kung Fu Panda

Rob Neyer

  (12:24 PM)

I don't know that Cain is particularly deserving -- he's been a little lucky -- but if there's not room for Kung Fu Panda, I'm not watching.

Josh (safety harbor, fl) [via mobile]

Rob, what about Ben Zobrist as an All Star?

Rob Neyer

  (12:27 PM)

Absolutely. I'm usually not big on guys who've missed significant time, but Zobrist has played enough to qualify for the lists and he's NUMBER ONE in OPS.

Scott (Boston, MA)

For those of us who are not in the know, who is Kung Fu Panda? Animated movie aside, of course

Rob Neyer

  (12:28 PM)

Pablo Sandoval. And people say all the good nicknames are dead...

Brian (de)

Cain lucky? He does have the third lowest ERA in the national league so he must be having a pretty good first half.

Rob Neyer

  (12:29 PM)

Look at his other stats, Brian. He's pitching about the same as he always does. He's just been luckier than usual. He's a good pitcher, but the evidence that he's a great pitcher is easy to miss.

Tim (Cincinnati)

Hi Rob. Should Brian Giles retire?

Rob Neyer

  (12:33 PM)

That's up to him, obviously. Personally, I don't like it when great hitters quit after two or three bad months (cf. Mike Schmidt).

Cash (neverland)

Remind me again why the Giants are no good? I realize they're pretty bad offensively but their pitching is incredible. Lincecum and Cain and pray for rain? Why is everyone handing the wildcard to the Rockies?

Rob Neyer

  (12:34 PM)

I don't know that anyone's handing anything to anyone. The Giants are next-to-last in the National League in scoring, and it's hard to win that way. Doesn't mean it can't be done. But they'll probably have to move up a few spots if they're going to ace out all the other WC contenders.

brian (Brooklyn NY)

What happened to Derek Lowe? He is quickly making the Oliver Perez contract look not thta awful in comparison

Rob Neyer

  (12:37 PM)

You got me, Brian. What's really puzzling is that he got off to such a great start. I still think the Braves could back in this thing, but it's not going to happen if Lowe's not doing well.

Dan (Washington, DC)

The Nats were roasted by the media -- especially one of your colleagues -- for not trading or signing Soriano. As a result they netted Jordan Zimmermann. In hind sight -- not trading or signing Soriano looks like the right move?

Rob Neyer

  (12:40 PM)

The Rangers are looking good for trading Soriano, the Nationals are looking good for letting him go, and the Cubs are looking really, really dumb for giving him that huge contract.

Mike (Boston)

What's up with Big Z? It was suggested in the Trib yesterday that the Cubs should waive him and trade him for a bag of balls. Do you think the Cubs will try to do that, and do you think there'll be any takers?

Rob Neyer

  (12:44 PM)

It's not like this is the first time he's made a bit of an ignoramus of himself, nor will it be the last. It's just more noticeable now because so many of his teammates aren't playing well. Zambrano's not the problem, though; he's part of the solution.

Brad (NM)

Why is Matt Holliday still in an A's uniform? 10 games out of first in a so-so division is tough to swallow right now for A's fans.

Rob Neyer

  (12:45 PM)

Obviously he's not going to help the A's win, so now it's just an equation: do you get more value by trading him this summer, or by taking the draft picks when he signs with another club? I think when you factor in his salary, you get more if you trade him.

Doug (Grand Rapids, MI)

Does Joel Zumya have what it takes to be the Tigers next closer?

Rob Neyer

  (12:46 PM)

I don't trust guys with injury histories who throw 100 miles an hour.

Chris D (Capital City)

Rob,If I remember right, Gavin Floyd's season last year fell into your "he's lucky" list. (Looking at secondary stats, it's easy to see why.)Has this last run of better production changed your view of him?

Rob Neyer

  (12:48 PM)

The big difference this year is that he's given up one home run every two starts, rather than a homer per start. Can he keep that up? I'd have to dig a little bit deeper. But yes, superficially (at least) he's taken a step forward.

Ken (Scottsdale, AZ)

What is your take on Donald Fehr? Would the game be better off if he was more like Gene Upshaw and realized that he had an opportunity to do more than just hold a gun to the owners heads?

Rob Neyer

  (12:49 PM)

One, that's not Fehr's job. And two, the game seems to be doing pretty well for itself.

Sean (Seattle)

Regarding the earlier Beltre comment, I watching him try to gut it out every game, and am appreciative of the effort. If he relocates this winter, I thank him for a good 5 years. That being said, do you see the M's staying around in the AL West without him? It's a big drop from Beltre to Woodward.

Rob Neyer

  (12:50 PM)

They were already living on the edge, and playing a scrub at third base probably pushes them off. Of course, it's not like Beltre was doing much. And they do have some moves that would help (like getting Griffey out of the lineup).

Dan (Chicago)

Interleague Record has the AL 137-114. Thats a .546 winning percentage....to put that in perspective the rays have a .551 % while the Orioles have a .447, So am I wrong to assume that the difference between the AL and the NL is similar to the difference between the Rays and Orioles...in other words...still a huge difference

Rob Neyer

  (12:53 PM)

Yeah, that's right. Jayson Stark had all the gory details yesterday. Sure, we maybe can attribute some of that edge to the DH ... but just a tiny some. Mostly the AL's just better, perhaps because the Red Sox and the Yankees drag everyone else up.

Scott (Godish)

Is it fair to say that Podsednik's remergence is more than just luck, or is the sample size still too small?

Rob Neyer

  (12:55 PM)

I think you answered your own question, Scott; Podsednik's well within the bounds of his career numbers, and will drop closer to them as the season moves along.

Jason (SF)

Is the Panda an eventual 30 HR guy?

Rob Neyer

  (12:57 PM)

Jason, I don't want to put any limits on the Panda. He can "catch," he can "play third base" and "first base" ... I don't know what's next. I'm just going to settle in and enjoy whatever it is...

Stan (Cicero)

The Cubs had the top offense in the NL last year, and seem to be trying hard to be the worst offense this year. Has that happened previously?

Rob Neyer

  (12:58 PM)

I suspect that it probably has, maybe once or twice or eight times (I'm just guessing, obviously). Certainly, a dropoff like theirs is exceptionally rare.

nick (sf)

help a non stats guy out. what metrics indicate cain is lucky? not arguing just interested. isn't his pretty BAA good, for example? or does that also reflect luck

Rob Neyer

  (1:04 PM)

Nick, his SO/BB ratio and his HR allowed are practically dead on his career norms. So why is his ERA a full run lower? Because he's been a little bit lucky, either in terms of batted balls not going for hits or bullpen support or something else (or all of the above). I'm not down on Matt Cain, who's a fine pitcher. He's just not as good as his ERA this season might suggest.Thanks for all the questions, and until next time don't forget: "Science is a way for us to not fool ourselves."