Fantasy Baseball w/AJ Mass
Welcome to SportsNation! On Monday morning, AJ Mass will drop by to take your questions and analyze all the latest baseball news from a fantasy perspective.
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AJ Mass (10:58 AM)
Welcome to our Monday chat, gang! Lots of questions to get to over the next hour, including All Star selections, Manny's return and more. So, who's up first?
I just traded away Shin Soo Choo for Grady Sizemore. Then Choo went 4/5 with 2 HRs and 7 RBIs. Did I mess up?
AJ Mass (11:01 AM)
LOL. Easy Joe. This isn't the NFL where if you trade a guy away and he rushes for 200 yards you can kick yourself. It's one game out of 162. Assuming Grady can stay healthy, it's not a bad deal for you. Relax.
Joe (Princeton, NJ)
morning AJ.I am sure a lot of us are curious.......do you think Jake Fox is going to manage to stay in the starting line up??
AJ Mass (11:02 AM)
I don't think so. Aramis being back is going to take some time to get back in the swing of things, and D. Lee may lose a little protection for a few games, but in the end, Fox will likely be a spot-starter/key bench sub if the team keeps him around.
How does Yovani Gallardo not make the all star team over Marquis?Yo has a better ERA, SO,BAA, and WHIP and should have at least 2 more wins if he had any run support.
AJ Mass (11:03 AM)
It's not Marquis I would be upset about - it's Johan. He really doesn't deserve it this season, and let's face it - four Mets on the team is preposterous.
HELP!! Can David Price be trusted this week vs Tor?
AJ Mass (11:05 AM)
I wouldn't trust him. I just don't think he's ready to be a starter at the major league level yet. I don't like the idea of moving him to the pen, or we'll have a Joba/Morrow situation that could have long-term disastrous results. However, Price is still a year away from being fantasy-worthy, IMO.
Is Blalock worth a pick up in a 12 Team Mix now that C. Davis got sent down?
AJ Mass (11:06 AM)
He probably was pretty close before, and now with Davis gone and Hamilton back, I think he definitely is.
Lee (New Orleans)
Swarzak worth a flier in a deep AL league until Slowey comes back? Or roll the dice on Bergeson? Thanks, AJ.
AJ Mass (11:07 AM)
I'd much rather have Bergesen. You're not going to get K's, but if you're looking at a short-term fix, with the O's lineup in an upswing, I'd go with him.
Who gets Wang's spot in the rotation?
AJ Mass (11:09 AM)
Girardi won't commit yet, but I'm thinking he goes with Aceves. He shouldn't, because he's far too valuable in the pen, but that just figures to be the way this team does things.
Doumit due back soon. Him or Weiters for this year only?
AJ Mass (11:10 AM)
Wieters. Doumit hasn't yet had a hit in the minors, and I'm not sure he's going to be ready as soon as people are saying.
Beltre hurt. Davis sent down. Myy 3b situation is a mess. Pick up Blake or Rolen?
AJ Mass (11:11 AM)
I'd go with Blake. I just don't see Rolen playing as he has with the 22-game hitting streak.
All Star game snubs (St Louis)
4 Redsox making the team? Youk and Pedroia DON'T deserve to be on the squad. What a FREAKING farce.
AJ Mass (11:13 AM)
I agree with you. However, as long as the powers that be insist on giving fans the vote, you're going to get undeserving folks in there. I won't criticize Pedroia, because that wasn't a "selection" - it was part of the popularity contest. But I agree Youk wouldn't have made my cut.
With Scott Hairston traded, does Kyle Blanks getting regular ABs?
AJ Mass (11:15 AM)
I think that is a good assumption. To me, Venable would be the odd man out in the remaining quartet, not Blanks.
I'd like you to talk about how much werth is worth..hahahaha...anyhow, he is pushing for a 30/30 season..Would you trade him for Holliday in a keeper league?
AJ Mass (11:16 AM)
In a keeper league I would rather have Holliday, especially since he's bound to be somewhere else next season - hopefully in a better overall lineup. But for this year only, Werth is definitely outperforming him and more Werth it.
Jack (Columbus, OH)
Did the trade of Hairston just ruin Adrian Gonzales fantasy value going forward? Seems like he has no lineup protection now.
AJ Mass (11:18 AM)
It doesn't help, but I don't think it has too much effect. It's not like pitchers were throwing to Gonzo thinking "we can't possibly let Hairston beat us."
Marquis makes the AST and no Gallardo??Proves this event is a joke
AJ Mass (11:20 AM)
I have no problem with Marquis. You can win 10 games in Colorado and keep your ERA under 4, you deserve it. The real issue is that this game shouldn't count for home field, when the real determination should be the league that wins more interleague games.
AJ - What do you think of this being added to fantasy? - You credit for a pitcher's positive stats at the plate ( a la Billingsley's HR yesterday) but negative stats don't count against you...
AJ Mass (11:22 AM)
Can't have it both ways. Either the stats all count or they don't -- including when a Johnny Damon pitches an inning in relief. The problem is that would unfairly devalue most NL pitchers over their AL counterparts (Zambrano and Owings notwithstanding) - but if they ever get rid of the DH, I'd be 100 percent for allowing ALL hitting stats to count.
Any thoughts on J Upton's slumping bat? Wheres he on the momentum scale? Thanks!
AJ Mass (11:24 AM)
I'm subbing for Brendan Roberts in Thursday's "Hit Parade" and will have a Momentum update then. But it's way too early to worry. He's in neutral, and should turn it back on soon.
People need to stop whining about who makes the AST. That has always been and will always be a complete sham. But what does need to be changed is the winning league getting home field advantage in the WS. How does even make sense?
AJ Mass (11:25 AM)
I disagree to an extent that the whining needs to stop. After all, the manager and players have a large say in who goes, and that makes it even worse. I mean how can Charlie Manuel take all those first basemen, for example, knowing there is no DH and that he has no CF. Things like that are worth whining over.
AJ, Did you actually compare Ricky Romero to John Cerutti in a chat earlier this year?? Rest of the year: R. Romero or E. Jackson ?
AJ Mass (11:27 AM)
Yeah, I seem to recall I did. Romero has grown on me some since then, but I'm still going to stay on Jackson side of this argument for now.
To Pete in NC (RE: AST)
You hit it spot on. We have the worst Commish in sports history in Bud Selig.
AJ Mass (11:29 AM)
He's made his mistakes, but I can't agree with you guys. Deciding to go with the Wild Card, which I wasn't in favor of at the time, was an incredibly smart move and in retrospect, probably helped save the sport from going into NHL-type levels of popularity.
How about we talk about fantasy baseball and not the ASG in a fantasy baseball chat? One word answer - Halladay for Ellsbury; fair?
AJ Mass (11:31 AM)
Hey Jesse, if you're playing fantasy baseball I'd hope that means you're also a baseball fan in general, so I have no problem chatting about these issues. As for your question, I think it's a fair deal, especially if steals are what you need.
How can the AL manager pick Tim Wakefield for the team and openly say he chose him as a career achievement award? His career has nothing to do with making the allstar game.
AJ Mass (11:34 AM)
I agree wholeheartedly there. Tim's my No. 35 starting pitcher overall right now, and that doesn't scream All-Star. I also think that since the home-field is determined by this game that the manager picking the rosters should be the one who is currently holding the best record, and not simply someone who did well LAST SEASON. I doubt his own manager would have selected Wakefield.
Johan Santana - should we go get him while he's the cheapest he's ever been, or are there legitimate injury/performance concerns?
AJ Mass (11:35 AM)
The concerns are more with the lineup support than with Johan himself. After all, he gave up three hits yesterday and lost. I'd certainly go get him.
Who should be the last man in for both teams in the ASG?
AJ Mass (11:36 AM)
From a strict fantasy production standpoint, it should be Kinsler and Reynolds, and it shouldn't even be close.
You buying J-Roll after this recent hot streak?
AJ Mass (11:36 AM)
Not yet. One week of hot hitting, and against the likes of Tim Redding and Fernando Nieve no less, does not yet make up for a season of .210 hitting.
OK now you're just being obstinate JUST answereing All Star Questions. Is Granderson better than Choo?
AJ Mass (11:37 AM)
Well, Granderson is an All-Star.
Has Jason Bay plateaued? Has his value slipped at all with this recent slump?
AJ Mass (11:39 AM)
Bay certainly has downward momentum of late, but I wouldn't panic just yet. He was certainly bound to see some decline in that RBI pace sooner or later. I'm still seeing him in the top-30 for the season.
Is Matsui fantasy worthy going forward? How would rank him with Cuddyer and Rowand?
AJ Mass (11:41 AM)
I think he's third of the three, but certainly is someone you can slot into your utility slot at home or when the matchup favors him.
Boris (Buffalo, NY)
Is Aramis Ramirez a risky play this week?
AJ Mass (11:44 AM)
If I own him, I probably put him in. I don't think he jumps back into the full swing of things, but on the chance he does I'd risk an 0-for-12 for a possible RBI or two. Of course, it depends on my other options... but hitters are never as "risky" as pitchers are coming off a long injury.
Hey, AJ - Could you briefly explain to us how you calculate your "Momentum Stat"?
AJ Mass (11:45 AM)
Briefly? Hard to do. Better to wait for the full description on Thursday. Basically, it's a rating of actual earned fantasy value compared with what a player's skill set says his current value should be. If the current value is lower, a surge should be expected, and if higher, a decline is in the future.
Peter Becker (FL)
Whats the momentum on Hanley? IT HAS TO BE OUT OF THIS WORLD!
AJ Mass (11:47 AM)
Ah, but it's not... because he's EXPECTED to be a top 10 hitter, and well, he is. The momentum number is a relative measure to the rest of the league, and not a pure individual one.
Hey AJ, in a 12 team league w/not much to choose from on WW, who would you rather have DeJesus or Reimold in the OF?
AJ Mass (11:49 AM)
DeJesus. I've actually cut Reimold in a couple of leagues, and just don't see him helping enough from a fantasy standpoint after the hot start.
following up on the Hairston questions, how about the Oak point of view? I see Hairston moving to Oak a good sign that Matt Holi will be moved since they do have a few OF prospects they could have brought up instead of getting Hairston
AJ Mass (11:51 AM)
Hairston is under contract for a few more seasons, so this is a move for "when Holliday goes." I think it's no secret he'll be moving this season, but this gives them a bit more flexibility in the asking price.
Schierholtz worth a pickup? How deep of a league?
AJ Mass (11:52 AM)
I think in an NL-only it's a no-brainer. Mixed leagues, it depends on how deep. But he's definitely a guy who can help you.
Joe (Bx, NY)
I concede that your description had to be brief but doesn't Momentum seem to be an example of the gambler's fallacy that you always refer to? Maybe I'm misunderstanding but it seems like the Momentum index is a prediction of a player's stats ultimately reflecting his career statistical norms, which, in previous chats you said was flawed logic (gambeler's fallacy).
AJ Mass (11:55 AM)
Not at all. Brevity gets in the way of the full description... current value is based on the distribution in the league of SB, HR, K's, ERA, etc. "Skills" are based on this season's stats and how many of each stat a player "should have achieved" based on contact rate, things like that. No implied regression to norm, just a revaluation of what their output should be.
One quick one before you jetCasey Mcgehee, what do you see in the econd half for him?SHould I consider dropping Beltre for him
AJ Mass (11:56 AM)
Beltre isn't coming back, IMO. McGehee will play and Gamel will be sent back to the minors. No brainer here.
NO! Don't leave yet! This is my only chat for the week lol. I need to know your thoughts on Cantu. His power stats are awful lately.
AJ Mass (11:59 AM)
I've been quite disappointed in him myself. Of course he always seems to be nagged by injuries - it just gets lost a bit in the headline because Han-Ram is also in that boat somewhat. I think he's ownable in 10-team mixed b/c of 3B eligibility, but not high on the list.
joe (memphis )
prado or o-dog for the rest of the year?
AJ Mass (11:59 AM)
O-Dog - although the All Star nod for him was laughable to me.
would you trade Price for Slowey?
AJ Mass (11:59 AM)
In a one and done league, consider it done.
For a team that's near the bottom of the standings in a keeper league, is trading for Webb a good idea?
AJ Mass (12:00 PM)
Absolutely - that's how you avoid the cellar next season.
Crawford or BJ Upton for the rest of '09?
AJ Mass (12:01 PM)
Crawford, but if he has another 6-8 steal week in him sometime the next month, I'd sell high.
Dan Meyer or Leo Nunez?
AJ Mass (12:01 PM)
I like Meyer better, but I think we're going to see a tag-team effort while Lindstrom is gone. Neither will get the lion's share here.
AJ Mass (12:02 PM)
That's my time for now. I believe Tristan is up at 3pm for the vacationing TMR. I'll be back tomorrow at 11am for another chat. Thanks for the Q's, and as always, we'll see you the next time on Villa Alegre.