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Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

Good morning everyone! Busy week, what with the trade deadline right around the corner. Let's get right to your questions!

Frank Bremin (NYC)

Is Martin Prado the real deal?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

For batting average, yes, and that means NL-only owners need take notice. Kelly Johnson is merely a utilityman and occasional starter at this point. Look at Prado's full-year paces, though: 11 homers. 49 RBIs. 64 runs. Even if you bump those up to a regular's number of at-bats, it's still in the ballpark of 15-60-75 numbers, good but not great. He's like what Placido Polanco has been in years past, but that has value. Just not elite, must-start-in-all-leagues value.

Rob (Stamford)

I need to ask about Fuentes since I couldn't "watch" the games. Were the hits cheapies? Is there an injury concern? Should I handcuff him? With who?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

I'm not about to pretend I saw a game that I didn't, so sorry, Rob, but I can't provide you any more specific answer. I would look to the local papers for details like that with some confidence, and one of the beat reporters for the L.A. Times did write today: "Among other things, in Brian Fuentes' last two shaky appearances against the Indians, he seemed to have lost some of the velocity on his fastball ... Fatigue could be a problem for Fuentes, and someone like [Heath] Bell could help share the load, if not take over altogether," in reference to suggesting the team should target Bell on the trade market. I don't think a move is highly likely for the Halos, but I think you've got reason for concern.

Hardy (Jacksonville, IL)

Beltran says he feels better. Does that mean he'll be back in August?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

Hey, it's progress, but when I read a report that his MRI doesn't show any progress with his bone bruise, but that the outfielder himself says he feels better, I'm not entirely buying it. That's a recipe for setbacks, if the player rushes himself at the first positive sign of recovery. Yes, maybe in the best-case scenario Carlos Beltran is back on Aug. 15. But I'm standing pat on saying Beltran owners should have a viable alternative to him to ride out the remainder of the year. I'm not expecting anything great, if anything at all.

josh (Atlanta)

Strange Comparison - who would you rather have for the rest of the season? Pablo Sandoval with catcher-eligibility or Josh Hamilton?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

Scary to think Sandoval really tempts me there. Read between the lines and it means I'm saying they're close, so I couldn't fault either choice, but the gut's saying Sandoval. I like that guy a lot.

jacob (NC)

more saves the rest of the way: Rauch or Jim Johnson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

Interesting question there, Jacob, and I do think Chad Qualls has a greater chance at being dealt than does George Sherrill. So from that aspect, I'd say Jon Rauch, because of his experience in the closer role. Johnson is a talented pitcher, a noted ground-baller, but I think of him as more of an inning-plus, exploit-matchups type in a big-league bullpen. To me, that's not something that screams "closer makeup."

James (NJ)

Which of these pitchers is start-worthy today...Contreras @ Min, Parra @ Was or Tillman vs KC?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

Each of those guys scares me to some degree, so I'd probably go Jose Contreras there, accounting for the fact that he has pitched decently in the past month or so.

Zach (Syracuse)

What ever happened to Chris Davis

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

He's hitting .329 with four homers in Triple-A since being demoted, while top prospect Justin Smoak is batting .176 with one homer in the month of July. So I guess I was wrong; Davis will probably beat Smoak to the bigs. Still, I get the impression Davis won't be promoted unless an injury opens up an everyday role for him, or the rosters expand on Sept. 1. I wouldn't wait around.

Ray (VA)

You can't seriously go through this chat without addressing Kinsler's injury!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

OK, Ray, we've brought it up. I don't know what to tell you about it. It's a strained hamstring, and I agree with the assessment that it's a "couple days" thing. It could lead to a DL stint; I've seen such things happen before with injuries like that. I know people want an inside scoop on injuries the morning after they happen, but sometimes, when the report is truly "day to day" or "a couple of days," the reason for that description is that even the team and the player himself knows that the timetable is a tad sketchy. Best I can advise you, unfortunately. I'd bench Kinsler in a daily format, for our purposes.

Dale (Atlanta)

Should I take a flyer on Bud Norris in a 10 team mixed?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

Sure, why not? He pitched well in Triple-A after having an impressive Arizona Fall League, and Jason Grey has been positive on his prospects in the past, and I respect Jason's take. Considering some of the guys the Astros have trotted out in the fourth and fifth starter's roles thus far, I do think Norris deserves this chance and at least a pickup to stash on an NL-only bench.

Brian (IN)

Does Montero's value drop off now that Snider is back?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

Hot as he has been? No way. Just so others aren't confused, the question is regarding the red-hot Miguel Montero, and the veteran Chris Snyder. For the record, in 82.6 percent of ESPN leagues I'd say we have a lot of very foolish owners (that's how many in which Montero remains unowned).

Bud (PA)

You buying Pedro or taking the wait and see approach?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

I can't remember if I made my stance clear in my last chat, but I'm pretty anti-Pedro, and have just about since his last good year in New York. That the Phillies have so seriously entertained Roy Halladay trade possibilities tells me that the team is realistic and doesn't regard Pedro Martinez as the answer to their rotation. He's a fifth starter, period. To pick from the same rotation, I expect more from Joe Blanton. And J.A. Happ.

Noman (DC)

You've talked alot about how no player is untouchable, so what can I reasonably expect in exchange for Hanley? I really need starting pitching, but dont want to lose too much offense.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

Yes, this is true, but Hanley Ramirez is a top-shelf talent. It means I'm going for the jugular, asking for the best pitcher I can get. That means Tim Lincecum. And if I'm scrolling down the pitching ranks from there and get a good half-dozen or more names deep, I'm saying, "OK, I'm cool with keeping Hanley."

Stan (MA)

You said that Chris Tillman v. KC scares you, but what sort of line can we expect? The Royals aren't exactly the Yanks when it comes to offense.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

No, they're not, and for the record, I ran a column on these pages a few years back (on the side I'll see if I can dig up the link) that supports the case that if you're gambling on newbies, to nab 'em in career start No. 1 if any in their first 10 tries. Here's the reason for my concern: Rookie jitters. He's 21, after all. If it was a road game I'd say no way (his road record in the minors was only so-so). It's all in how much risk you can afford to take. Could be great, gets K's, but you are taking a chance, that's all I want to make clear.

Eddie (Queens)

Thoughts on Clayton Kershaw tonight vs. a hot Cardinals lineup?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

I'm not sitting Kershaw facing any matchup, not right now. You could pit him against Bugs Bunny's team and I'm still keeping him active.

JDK (ATL)

Cockroft - will Latos rock my socks off?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

In a year or two, sure, maybe. If the Padres actually have the budget to build him an offense and retain a bullpen that will help him win ballgames. This year? He's a matchups type at best, and I'm concerned about his ability to work all that deep into games. Doesn't help that the Padres are awful, so he won't win much.

Jacob (NC)

All you analysts sai Mark DeRosa would come back with no power. You're eating your words on that one, right?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

I don't remember my specifically saying that, but I do remember saying I was concerned about the conflicting reports the Cardinals offered on his health before he went on the DL. OK, so I was wrong then. I don't like bad information offered out by a team, I just don't trust it then.

Bill (Chicago)

Sabathia or Josh Johnson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

That one boils entirely down to which pitcher I think can hold up from the tremendous workload of a long season, and I'm noticeably more optimistic with CC Sabathia in that regard. Besides, he had that monster second half last year during a pennant race.

Mitch (Indy)

I was curious to get your thoughts on Brett Wallace now that he is an A....is he just going to play 1B or DH now?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

I wonder, Mitch, truly I wonder. Now, I'll point this out: In three of his first four games for Oakland's Triple-A team, Wallace played third base. (The other he was the DH.) In the long haul I bet he's a DH or first baseman, much the way Billy Butler is these days. But I think it's smart for a team to see if a prospect like this can develop at a tougher defensive position before making the decision to shift him. I bet Wallace debuts at the hot corner, like Ryan Braun did. Not with that level of impact, of course, but I think he'll hit. And be a great keeper.

Dave (NJ)

Good closer on a bad team. Heath Bell finishes with __ saves.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

Risk/reward closer, because of the prospect he'll be traded, though I'll say as of Wednesday I see about a 15-20 percent chance he'll be dealt, at least from all the stuff said about a possible Heath Bell deal recently. (That's a gut call, nothing more.) If he's dealt, he'll finish with 27-29, somewhere in there, because I see him as more of a key setup man you can work hard on a contender. If he stays in San Diego? I think he can get in the 38 range or so.

Mr. Clear Cut (Right Here)

Yes or No: Halladay gets traded?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

Yes. Way too much chatter on this front to not see a deal take place. Again, gut call, nothing more, no insider info there driving the prediction. As long and public as this has been drawn out, I think the Blue Jays probably have diminished their chances of as good a deal in the offseason as they'd get right now, if only because maybe they'll come across as difficult to deal with later if they don't deal right now.

Hawk (NY)

Victorino is #30 overall in our scoring. I just traded him for Johan Santana (#61). I needed pitching, the other guy consistent all around offense. People are obviously a little whiny about the deal because of the name. But, value wise, is it that bad? Someone said they could have taken Nyjer MOrgan off the waiver wire. While that is true, is Victorino not much more solid than Morgan?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

I've had so many discussions with people about trade review this season, and all I can say is it seems that there are more and more people each year who are on either side of the issue. Either they think all trades should be approved, or they want to be as picky as possible down to the last penny of value. I like to consider myself pretty liberal on trades, and if you've got numbers like you listed there, that you dealt the No. 30 guy after four months of a baseball season for a No. 61 guy, well, there's your perfectly legitimate case. I like the deal for you, but it's no slam dunk if those numbers are true.

Bob (Portland)

Hawk...They're just jealous they didn't get the deal

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

Yes, very often this is the reason people object to a deal. And to that I always respond: Be faster.

Al (Ontario)

with the #1 waiver in my NL only league, who would be the better grab this morning, Doc or Lee?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

OK, so let's say both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee get dealt to the National League. And for the purposes that they both have about the best value as they could based upon destination, let's say Halladay to the Phillies, Lee to the Dodgers. And this is all hypothetical. Halladay would be my No. 1 pick. Period. He's just a special pitcher, not one to worry about ballparks.

Logan (Virginia)

Does Strasburg hav elate season value thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

There's actually a Web site out there that is counting down the exact number of seconds Steve Strasburg has to sign with the Nationals. It's at about 19 1/2 days, rounding here. That there's a need at all for that tells me this is going down oh-so-close to the deadline, and with only a month and a couple weeks of season to do after that, I just don't see him debuting this year.

rich (FLA)

Is Wallace likely to see the majors this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

Oh yes, I'd say most definitely. At the very latest at the roster expansion deadline.

Gersh (Astoria, NY)

What's with Haren in his last two starts? Anything to worry about?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

I wonder whether this is his typical second-half swoon rearing its ugly head. He has a career ERA after the All-Star break more than a run higher than before it, and has had a four-plus ERA after the break in each of the past three seasons. This year, it's 3.50 (so far). I'd temper my expectations a little bit, though I won't take Dan Haren out of, let's say, my top 15 starters. And I still probably have him in my top 10 if pressed to rank 'em.

Phil (Philly)

Cole Hamels: A sign of things to come or just false hope?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

I'm hopeful. Plus, I'll add that I think having Roy Halladay around to take off some of the pressure might work wonders for Hamels. Just something to think about, if that deal happens.

James (New Jersey)

Lee a good fit for the Phillies? Deal seams close.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

Well, he's not the fly-ball pitcher he was about, say, three or four years ago, so it's not quite so bad as it could be. It's not as great a situation for him ballpark-wise as Cleveland has been, but then the league switch and the improved run support would more than overcome those worries. That said, I've heard nothing close to official to suggest a deal has happened. There's just the report that they're talking.

Chris (Waterbury)

Should I be worried about Billingsley? Something doesn't seem right.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

Every time a great pitcher hits a cold spell people are apt to press the panic button, in spite of the fact that very few pitchers make it through 33-plus starts of a full season without some sort of down period. That might be all this is with Chad Billingsley, but you're right to have the magnifying glass over him. His command numbers are a tad sketchy, so I'd keep my eye on him and be considering avoiding bad matchups as necessary.

Alex (Oakland)

What's Wainwright's value after this year ends for a keeper league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

High. Close to the top 10 starting pitchers if not in it, though that 10-15 range tends to blur a little bit to me. One thing I can say is that the "10-15 range" usually means certain keeper, and that's something I don't hear a lot of people saying about Adam Wainwright.

Donald (Tulsa, OK)

What is your feelings on trade etiquette? Do you think it's right for a playoff contention to be making trades w/ a last place team that is over 60 games out of the last playoff spot? There's a huge argument in my league about this and wanted to get a different opinion

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

It depends on the circumstances (the owners' relation to each other, keeper vs. single year, the specifics of the deal). Again, I'm pretty liberal on trades. I don't like to reject a single deal if I can help it, because to each his/her own opinion and the right to manage his/her own team. And I loathe the league that has the rule that prohibits the first-place team dealing with the last-place team. I'd have to know the deal to tell you my opinion, but I always advise to allow creative thinking, especially in a keeper format.

Mike (Indy)

Do you trust Smoltz vs BAL tomorrow?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

No. But I just don't trust John Smoltz right now. He's not at his usual Smoltz-iness.

Bob (Williamsburg, VA)

How do you feel Ricky Nolasco will rank among keepers (and in terms of dollar value) going into next year? He really has bounced back nicely, showing his maturity and talent.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

Hmmm. Probably a little behind the Adam Wainwright range of the earlier question, though not substantially so. I could see a case for top-20 status, let's say. And in NL-only leagues, maybe a high-teens bid. I do like Nolasco; underrated pitcher whose greatest concern long-term should be durability, not talent.

Paul (Toronto)

Donald, why don't you ask the whiners if they want to institute a rule whereby the last place team isn't allowed to play after July?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

It's a good point. If I was in last place -- and I think it's imperative that you avoid last place at all costs in every league -- I would hate to have my hands tied in the slightest. It's not at all fair to make someone sit back and stink just because you're scared of an unfair trade going through. Don't condemn a team to a terrible year if that team wants to improve.

Mike (NY)

I have asked this question since this chat started today please help me, Should I trade Lackey for Dunn?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

If you need the power, sure, that seems a fair deal. Adam Dunn is what he is -- what is it, three or four years straight of exactly 40 homers? Seems quite consistent to me.

JB (OH)

If the first place team trades Mariano Rivera to the last place team (which has been idle for 2 months) for Carl Crawford, as liberal as you are, would you veto that?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

No. Rivera is a top-five closer at the bare minimum, what's bad about him? It'd be one thing if that was Crawford for, say, Mike MacDougal.

T (MA)

Rank these pitchers as keepers: Hamels, King Felix, Gallardo, Kershaw, Nolasco, Cain

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

Hmmm. Let's answer this regarding 2010 first and foremost, with only a sprinkling of future-years value being considered. In that case, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Yovani Gallardo, Matt Cain, Clayton Kershaw, Ricky Nolasco. And I think every single one of them makes an excellent case to be kept.

Mango (Chicago)

Do you think Buchholz will be 10 team mixed worthy this year? WHIP and ERA seem to be a bit high thus far....

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

Borderline. I'd examine the matchups and exploit the favorable ones, but overall I doubt he's quite up to task. And I do like Clay Buchholz, but there's a learning curve here.

Kevin (Stamford, CT)

Why has John Lannan been getting little to no love this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

Because his team is terrible but that doesn't mean that it's right. Lannan at the bare minimum is a matchups consideration, and I seem to remember a matchup against the Mets I recommended owners exploit, and he was more than up the task. I feel about that way about him looking forward. He just won't win a ton against elite opponents because he's on a terrible team.

Colnel Sanders (KFC)

Need pitching help!!!...Give me some lightening in a bottle please

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

The very first name that pops into my mind is one who might already be a hot pickup, but one who I do believe in: Luke Hochevar. Yes, I'm buying.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

OK folks, time to wrap things up for the day. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I couldn't get to yours. Take care everyone!