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Jason Grey

  (3:01 PM)

Baseball Chat? I got you covered. Let's get to it.

Paul (San Bernadino)

Need to find another source of steals...what's the story with Luis Durango? Will he have consistent playing time?

Jason Grey

  (3:02 PM)

Looks like mostly a bench player and an NL-only play at best: Black said "Luis gives us an option on the bench -- pinch-hit, pinch-run and he can play three outfield positions" so the PT may not be there. Wrote this about him at the Futures Game: "rail-thin, 5-9 outfielder in the Padres system who has posted a .397 on-base percentage and stolen 28 bases at Double-A this year. He has drawn more walks than strikeouts during the past two seasons in the minors, which is good because he's absolutely devoid of power. He's a slap hitter with a contact-oriented approach who tries to get on base by any means necessary so he can use his wheels, and he has won two batting titles at the lower levels of the minors. However, big league pitchers may wind up knocking the bat out of his hands, and his base-stealing ability isn't that great despite his speed, as he has been caught 15 times in 43 attempts this season. He looks like a 25th-man type who can be used as speed off the bench, but he probably doesn't hit well enough to be a regular"

Billy (Dodgertown, USA)

Keeper question, keep 6 out of Ubaldo, De La Rosa, Aaron Hill, Joey Votto, Kung Fu Panda, McCann, Yo-Ga, and Markakis, what do you think?

Jason Grey

  (3:03 PM)

De La Rosa is the first cut, and actually leaning towards Ubaldo, simply because I prefer to protect hitting, as it's easier to find pitching during the season. I love to have a lot of hitter locked up on my keeper lists, but that's just the way I play.

Patrick (Boston)

Thanks for doing these chats! I'm in last place in a DEEP 7 player keeper league and just planning for next year. Have 6, but don't know who my 7 should be. Hoping you can help. Reimold, Maybin for hitters or Norris, Tillman, Cecil or Feliz as pitchers? Bigger upside next year and the following years? Thanks again!

Jason Grey

  (3:04 PM)

The biggest upside is Feliz in the Rangers rotation, as that's where he's expected to be next year. He also has the highest long-term ceiling, but is also risky given the inherent injury risks with young pitching.

Scott (California)

Who's the better start tonight: Jurrjens or Danks?

Jason Grey

  (3:06 PM)

Statistically, the Mariners have a worse offense than the Mets, however, the Mariners actually hit lefties pretty well - in the top half of baseball, so the numbers say go with Jurrjens.

Gruf (Inverness, Scotland)

Hi Jason, finally, salvation from football questions. Five Keepers from Tulo, Dunn,Votto, Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, ARam , King Felix, and Verlander. I have the first 5 in mind, ARam's the one that has me stressing. League uses OPS

Jason Grey

  (3:06 PM)

I wouldn't stress about ARam in this scenario.

Bosox fan (Vancouver, BC)

Hey love reading your columns! Need help picking out keepers, we are allowed 5 keepers and i have decided on a-rod, justin upton, kemp, braun already, but who would you pick for the 5th keeper among greinke, gallardo, ubaldo jimenez?

Jason Grey

  (3:06 PM)

Greinke

Glenn (Pocatello)

Please apply your scout's eye to Ricky Nolasco and tell me why he alternates between world beater and 5 IP 7 ER (his last outing). Good Ricky is a possible keeper. Bad Ricky is a mop-up man for Washington.

Jason Grey

  (3:08 PM)

Scouting-wise the stuff is still there. A lot of it is luck: the 162/40 K/BB say he's a keeper. BABIP about 40 points too high, only 60% of runners left on, peripherals say his ERA should be around 3.50. Some of what we think is inconsistency are just luck swings.

Steve (CA)

i need keeper help. who do you think i should keep as my last keeper? Carlos Gonzo or Howie Kendrick?

Jason Grey

  (3:08 PM)

C Gonz

Anthony (Cali)

Do you think Gallardo gets shut down?

Jason Grey

  (3:09 PM)

The'll announce something tomorrow, but the fact they haven't named a Sunday starter yet (Gallardo's next day) could be a good sign that he's made his last start of the year.

Teddy (Nats racing president mascot) (Wash, DC)

Ian Desmond, your thoughts (numbers) for next year. Is his breakout for real? Keeper?

Jason Grey

  (3:10 PM)

Wrote about him extensively in my hardcore column this past Sunday. I've seen a lot of him and I don't think he's a good long-term bet. Power and Speed are both iffy, maybe just an empty batting average at best.

Steve (CA)

Hey i have the 1st pick in my keeper league next year. Should i take Strasburg or Heyward?

Jason Grey

  (3:12 PM)

If it's just 2010, Strasburg. In a dynasty or long-term keeper I might consider Heyward (and if it's close I almost always take the hitter over the pitcher), but Strasburg is different, and even given the "young pitchers get hurt" issue, I'd still take probably take him.

Chad (Milwaukee)

Better keeper for next year...Rios, A. Gordon or Heyward

Jason Grey

  (3:12 PM)

Rios, even given the horrible finish to the year.

Brian (Orlando)

Hi Jason, Tim Stauffer a safe start a Pitt tomorrow? Thanks

Jason Grey

  (3:13 PM)

I started him in a couple of 15-team mixed leagues as a spot start play, so I think so. I wouldn't call it safe, but I saw it as a risk worth taking.

Charlie (Syracuse, NY)

Arroyo or Blackburn as a replacement for Oswalt for the playoffs?

Jason Grey

  (3:13 PM)

Arroyo

Laff (Chicago)

Jason, love your work. Grienke just got pulled out of the game after 5 scoreless, injury or did they pull him because of the 8 run lead? Also, any concern about Youk's injury?Thanks

Jason Grey

  (3:15 PM)

Not watching the game, but would assume it was just five to get the win with the lead to back off him a bit.

Billy (NYC)

Who would you rather stream tomorrow Padilla, Pelfrey, or Andersen? In need of Wins and K's.

Jason Grey

  (3:16 PM)

Anderson

Bob (NY)

Am I going to be able to play Michael Young consistently when he returns tomorrow?

Jason Grey

  (3:16 PM)

He's as tough as they come about playing through stuff, so I would assume if he comes back, it's for good, but he also thought that earlier in the week. Odds are yes, but who knows with hamstrings?

Jack (Novato, CA)

Hey Jason. Where would you rank Brandon Webb going into next year? Do you expect a full setback-free recovery in 2010?

Jason Grey

  (3:17 PM)

From everything I've heard about the surgery, I think Webb could be a bargain next year, and might slide a little bit. Of course, until he actually starts throwing again, that's just speculation.

J-UP (The Desert)

Jason, Whats my keeper league value over the next 3-5 yrs?Am I top 20?, or dare I say top 10 worthy in that time?

Jason Grey

  (3:18 PM)

You're #35 on Player Rater now despite missing a bunch of time, so top 20 is a very safe bet. I bet he doesn't get out of the 2nd round next year in most leagues.

Mark (Chicago)

I love Rajai Davis. That's all. Thanks

Jason Grey

  (3:20 PM)

Not dealing for Rajai when I had the chance may cost me a title (I was protecting HR, RBI leads and already had two pure speed plays, which is why I didn't pull the trigger, but I should have anyway)

Max (Indiana)

Hey Jason, rest of the year Nick Johnson or Billy Butler and Denard Span or Cody Ross. Thanks again!

Jason Grey

  (3:21 PM)

Span will have the most value due to the speed, but it also depends on the makeup of the rest of your roster as to how much that speed will impact your squad.

Moe (SF)

Better start for this week .... Lannan, Maine, or Corriea?

Jason Grey

  (3:21 PM)

Correia

Jeff (IN)

I can keep two: Verlander, Wandy, and the younger Weaver, who can repeat this years success?

Jason Grey

  (3:23 PM)

I think they all can, but I go with Verlander and Weaver. Anyone that has actually seen Wandy has to at least consider there might be some durability issues going forward after what looks to be a 200 inning season, so I'd probably go with the other two.

Richard (TX)

Low on innings, need some vulture wins. Who are some relievers you would target?

Jason Grey

  (3:24 PM)

No knowing who might be avaialble etc....if you must try for vulture wins, it's all about team situations and teams with good offenses as opposed to which pitcher has the best skills.

Mike (Indy)

What are your thoughts for Hanson next year.....can he be a top 10 pitcher? Thanks!

Jason Grey

  (3:25 PM)

Top 10 is pushing it. Top 20? Yes.

Tom Tuttle (Tacoma)

Still scrapping for saves in the home stretch. Howell's been a dead roster spot for most of a month now. Drop him for Frasor? Madson? Downs? Myers?

Jason Grey

  (3:26 PM)

Feel your pain on this one - picked the worst time to start wearing down. Frasor is your best bet, because I still think the Phillies will try to work Lidge back in there by the end of the month.

Mike (NYC)

Didn't see an answer re: concern over Youk's injury. Do you think he and/or Berkman are back Friday? Need some live bats.

Jason Grey

  (3:27 PM)

Possible, but I'd expect sometime on the weekend and anything else to be a bonus. I always err on the side of caution in these cases.

Steve (ND)

Lost Oswalt, probably Gallardo, and Kershaw is banged up a bit. Is Tommy Hunter worth a look?

Jason Grey

  (3:28 PM)

Worth a look, but I'm not a huge fan.

Damon (Seattle)

Do you keep B.J Upton over Werth, Ethier, Sandoval, or Rivera in a 9 keeper league?

Jason Grey

  (3:29 PM)

I keep him over Rivera

Tom Tuttle (Tacoma)

Arroyo, Saunders or Hudson down the final stretch?

Jason Grey

  (3:30 PM)

I like Hudson, especially with a lot of Nats games left on the Braves schedule.

Jason (queens)

Speaking of speed plays...better bet to help rack up SB's the last few weeks: EY Jr., Brantley, or Fowler?

Jason Grey

  (3:31 PM)

Probably Brantley because Tracy keeps wavering on how much PT he wants to give EY JR. If PT was equal, EY.

Butch (PA)

Is I. Stewart basically the same as D. Uggla from a fantasy perspective next year?

Jason Grey

  (3:32 PM)

No, because I do think Stewart will eventually hit for a better batting average and there's still more upside there.

Tuttle (Michigan)

Last week, you advised keeping Fuentes as a 3rd closer over Oswalt as a 7th starter. Does Fuentes's recent struggles change your mind? Thank you.

Jason Grey

  (3:33 PM)

Absent an injury, no, because he'll start the year with a clean slate next year, and this appears to just be temporary struggles.

Johnny Tuttle (Michigan)

I don't know what to do in the playoffs in a deep keeper. I've got Morneau

Jason Grey

  (3:35 PM)

If you have a chance to win, you pull out all the stops to do so. Next year is next year. Flags fly forever. Evaluate how realistic your chances are. I'd rather finish first, last, first, last in four seasons than post four second place finishes.

Tim (San Francisco)

Is there a posibility that the giants acquire prince fielder in the offseason and what will the brewers ask forIs buster posey gonna start in 2010 as an every day catcher and not a bullpen one and is he your favourite one for RK of the year?

Jason Grey

  (3:36 PM)

Wherever Posey is next year, I'd expect him to be a starting catcher. And Strasburg is my favorite for ROY, even though I could care less about those awards.

Jason (Dallas)

Will Lester be a top 10 pitcher next season? Would you keep him over a hitter like Kinsler, Ichiro or Tex?

Jason Grey

  (3:37 PM)

I think this is what he is - think he's 14th on our Player Rater, which seems about right to me. I'd keep all of those hitters over him, but as I've mentioned already, I prefer to load up on hitting in keeper leagues.

Jay (MA)

Competing for the crown! Gutierrez or Jepsen the rest of this week?

Jason Grey

  (3:39 PM)

Gutierrez

Rob (Indiana)

Would you start Penny and/or Dice-K in their next games?

Jason Grey

  (3:39 PM)

Yes.

Ryan (Astoria, NY)

Johan Santana is going to be 31 and coming off of elbow surgery going into next season. Is he still considered "fantasy elite" or will he be overdrafted based on his name?

Jason Grey

  (3:41 PM)

I think he's going to right at value in many leagues next year. Neither an overdraft or bargain. Still think he's an elite starter. Chris Carpenter has had WAY more injury woes and remains elite, and Santana bounced back nicely from a similar surgery in '03

Jack (NJ.)

What are your thoughts on Casey McGehee over the next few weeks: looking for some power.

Jason Grey

  (3:42 PM)

Slugging about 90 points higher than his recent minor league track record, so the power part of his performance may be a bit of a mirage. Depends (as always) on the other options.

John (San Fran)

Who should I keep for next season P Sandoval, D Wright, A Ramirez

Jason Grey

  (3:42 PM)

I'll still take Wright.

Randy (Reno, NV)

Are you starting Peavy against the Royals this weekend?

Jason Grey

  (3:43 PM)

Only because it's the Royals, but it would shock me if he's still on the mound in the sixth inning.

Steve (Boston)

QS LEAGUE..Tomorrow Anderson or Porcello. Streamed DeLaRosa and Kuroda yesterday on your advice in the chat the other day. Thanks

Jason Grey

  (3:44 PM)

Anderson, especially with Porcello averaging barely over 5 innings per start. 5 innings one run doesn't help you.

Jason Grey

  (3:45 PM)

For the record, Anderson is averaging just under six...but has shown the ability to go deeper a bit more consistently.

Davie (Landenberg, PA)

Hi Jason...thanks for the FBB chat. Would you alter your thoughts re: keeping SP's if the choices were C. Carpenter, J. Johnson

Jason Grey

  (3:46 PM)

I'll take Josh given Carp's injury history. Safer play, even if I'm giving up a little bit of upside in the process.

Scott (Concord NH)

DEEP AL Only League. Thinking about keeping some serious sleepers for 2010, maybe even 2011. R.Perry and T.Flowers. Can you discuss these kids' potential for the next couple years? Thanks!!

Jason Grey

  (3:48 PM)

Problem with Flowers for next year is Pierzynski still has one year left on his deal, so absent a trade, Flowers may have to play a lot of Triple-A. Big fan of his fantasy potential though...I think the idea is that Perry will hopefully be ready to close at some point next year with Rodney headed for Free Agency. That's what they had in mind when they used a first-round pick on him. So Perry is definitely a nice sleeper for next season.

Jason (queens)

Have you seen a pitcher get pinched in a big spot more than when Fuentes walked the bases loaded last night? I could've used that SV!

Jason Grey

  (3:49 PM)

Apparently you didn't have J.P. Howell earlier this month.

Jason Grey

  (3:49 PM)

..and yes, that was a strike

Nick (ohio)

I no everyone is tired of Weiters questions...but seriously, has he finally arrived? Is he now a safe keeper in a somewhat deep league?

Jason Grey

  (3:50 PM)

Yes

Jeff (NY)

Is De La Rosa on his way to becoming an elite pitcher? He is having an awesome September.

Jason Grey

  (3:50 PM)

Still too inconsistent for my tastes to consider him as "elite" at this point. He's teased us before (although he's doing it a bit longer this time)

Brad (Jackson, MS)

Need HR and AVG for title push. Would you drop Chris Davis for Matt LaPorta?

Jason Grey

  (3:51 PM)

You say to-MAY-to, I say to-MAH-to.

Jason Grey

  (3:51 PM)

In other words, six of one, half dozen of the other. I'd check the remaining schedules and see who gets to feast on more bad pitching.

Matt (Carolina)

Ervin @ Boston tonight?

Jason Grey

  (3:52 PM)

Tough to pass on him, but I think the safer play is to do so.

Bruce (NY.)

Has Buchholz found his way? Is he a dependably start from here on?

Jason Grey

  (3:53 PM)

I think so, though I am surprised his strikeout rate is not higher. Maybe he's trying to be more democratic.

Todd (Pasadena)

Going to keep three Ubaldo, Jair, Josh Johnson, Beckett , Price Bumgardner?

Jason Grey

  (3:53 PM)

Beckett, Ubaldo, JJ

john (ma)

Jason do you think Randy Wells is worn out? or hitters just finally catchin' up to his stuff?

Jason Grey

  (3:55 PM)

More of the former, with some good luck correcting in the other direction thrown in

eric (boston)

Is Granderson ever gonna be able to hit lefties? Or is this what we are looking at for the rest of his career

Jason Grey

  (3:56 PM)

We've got four years of data now that says this is pretty much what he does. Check out Andre Ethier's numbers against lefties this year as well.

Chris (DC)

Andrus over M. Young for the playoff run in a H2H?

Jason Grey

  (3:57 PM)

Andrus over a wounded Young, depending on what other speed options you have. You can't afford potentially empty roster spots in H2H, so even though I think Young should be OK, I might mitigate my risk.

Jason (queens)

Corey Hart...had a nice two-game run hitting in the luxurious #2 spot. Do you think he's fully healthy and helps down the stretch, or is this just another tease?

Jason Grey

  (3:58 PM)

I'm going with closer to tease.

Jason Grey

  (4:01 PM)

That's it for me today, guys. A couple of things: Starting mid-Octobey my AFL blog will be mostly daily this year (Strasburg's debut, etc.) keeping you up to date on prospects this offseason. If you have trouble finding my stuff, you can check me out on Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/jasongrey where I will make sure to post links to all my offseason stuff. Thanks as always for taking the time. I appreciate it.