Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! I've got some quick TFS news to start out with. This week's Pass Plays article includes two players who are having dominant seasons yet are available in at least 1/3 of ESPN leagues (or at least they were earlier this week). Getting Defensive highlights focuses on defenses that are facing really weak offenses. The Draft Lab takes a look at South Florida DE George Selvie's strengths and weaknesses. The Countdown Daily Presented by IBM video segments (which are free courtesy of IBM) take a look at key matchups for this weekend's games. You can find these by searching KC Joyner or via my Twitter feed at kcjoynertfs. Now let's talk some football!
Jesse (saint paul, mn)
KC, love the analysis...who's the better WR2 this week with DeSean Jackson on bye? Garcon or Knox? Caldwell is probably the best option on the FA list.
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
As much as I like Garcon, I still would take Knox against the Lions D.
KC, from a stats perspective...is starting Derek Anderson over Quinn the right move this week? I don't see the advantage, 3 picks for Anderson, 1 for Quinn...and that offense is not moving either way. Wouldn't it be smarter to get the young 'franchise' qb another game experiance?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
The issue is that Quinn wasn't being aggressive enough in his vertical reads (or at least that's what my scouting eye saw). Anderson solved the aggressiveness issue but he also had three bad decisions. I'd stick with Quinn, but you can be sure that since Quinn has been benched, he's almost certain not to go back in. Once a player gets into Mangini's doghouse, it is next to impossible to get back out of it.
KC, regarding Miami's offense and our lack of scoring, chunk plays and deficiencies in the redzone, what can you attribute it to? Our OL is better than last year, it's the same group of WR/RB, but we can't score. I don't think Ginn is the issue, nor do I think Pennington's lack of arm strength is the problem. Play calling maybe? Blitz pickup?Along those lines, how critical is it for a team to have a bonafide #1WR?THANKS
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
I've been defending Pennington's are strength for a while now but it was finally coming back to haunt him. I'd also mention Ginn's drop against Indy. If he steps up and catches that, we aren't talking as much about the Fins woes. I'd also mention that Thigpen is a great pickup for them. If Henne doesn't work out and Miami will implement the I-Gun for Thigpen, he'll get their offense moving.
Do you think Palmer steps up his passing yards or is this the new trend for the season?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Palmer looks to be back to his old self. I like the matchups against Houston, Cleveland and Chicago, but the games against Baltimore and Pitt (which constitute three of his next six games) could be rough.
Thoughts on Percy Harvin so far?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Rather reminiscent of Moss in his rookie go around in purple. Not quite to that level but he's not having trouble at all adjusting to to the NFL.
Can the Ravens secondary stop the Patriots if Welker and Moss are both on the field? I am confident they will stop the run but am worried about the Pats passing attack even though they have struggled to some extent so far this year.
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
They stopped NE in 2007 by taking away Welker's key routes but with the way Foxworth and Washington are playing, I can't see them replicating that.
Mike in MN (Mauer/Favre land)
Did you break down the performance last week? Other than the first drive and the last, Favre looked pretty mediocre to bad in that game, but it's not like I charted the plays.....That Oline is going to get him killed, and if the D they play keep contain, kill AP's running yards.
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Favre is sitting at a vertical YPA in the 7-yard range. That is nearly two yards worse than his composite vertical pass YPA total over the past three years and the composite number was in the bottom five of the league. Favre is making bad decisions and can't hit the deep pass. He may shock the world on Monday but my prediction is he has a very bad game.
Rob (DC (Winning Team))
3 wins into my undefeated season.... you heard it hear first KC!
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
Rob, I'll give you total credit but I'm a combined 7-2 in the three fantasy leagues. I hope to run into you playoff time!
With Parker possibly not playing this Sunday, and the Steelers having to pass more most likely, is Big Ben a better play than Carson Palmer this week?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
The Cincy defense is the untold story of this season. They are playing much like they did late last year when they shut teams down. I'd stay away from Ben if at all possible this week and would start Palmer over him.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
What's wrong the offense in Buffalo? I seem to recall you saying they should use Evans deep and Owens shorter and intermediate. Are they just not listening to your recommendations or is there something else going on?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
That they don't listen to me is no surprise - if they did, JP Losman would still be their QB. Owens was taken out last week with dominant coverage by Jabari Greer (a very good and totally unsung CB).
KC, did the Saints just become a three headed monster with them finally getting a decent running game, a high end passing offense and now their defense is playing half decent as well now. Do they make a serious run in the playoffs like Jeremy green has suggested?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
They have maybe the best quartet of CBs in the league to go along with that great passing game. As long as they stay healthy, I could easily see a playoff run.
Blake (Abilene, TX)
Am I crazy to think that Ceric Benson rushes for over 1,500yds and lives up to his Top 5 draft pick status?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Not at all. I had him as a sleeper in my draft guide precisely because he played well late last year and had a fairly favorable set of matchups. He's still got Cleveland twice, Houston, Chicago, Oakland and Detroit on his schedule, so there could be as many as six more 100-yard games in his future.
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Oh yeah, he also has Kansas City in week 16 (think of that as a possible championship week trade to make if you plan that far ahead).
Steelers are playing SD not Cincy. Would you still stay away from Ben? My other option is Garrard against the suspect pass D of TEN.
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
That's what I get for trying to write these things so quickly. I'd still play Palmer over Ben. The Titans D has struggled but Garrard isn't the guy to top them.
Ryan (Springfield Va.)
What do you think is wrong with the Redskins Offenese?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Trust between Zorn and Campbell. They had it for a time last year and Campbell posted double digit vertical YPAs. Now that it is gone, they are both trying to avoid mistakes to keep from being the scapegoat.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
I hate to let my rooting loyalties get in the way but I'm sitting Rodgers in favor of Eli this week. This isn't a bad move considering how poor the Chiefs D has been, right?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
The Chiefs do have one of the best young CBs in the league in Brandon Flowers, but their secondary is suspect otherwise. You have to play Eli against that matchup.
Ryan (Springfield Va.)
Should I play Clinton Portis vs. that horrible Bucs Run defenese or Carnell Williams vs the Redskins D?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
As much as I don't trust the Skins O, I trust the Bucs D even less. Play Portis.
Dewayne (San Diego)
Do ypu feel Roy Williams is a legit #1 reciever KC?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
He is whenever he has a coach prodding him along the way Mike Martz did in Detroit. When he doesn't have that, he is a good WR but not as elite as his talent says he should be.
The funny thing is if Dre Bly makes that interception, we'd be talking about what a goat Favre is, but he gets to add something to his (supposed) legend.
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
Great point, Xander. I give Favre all of the credit for moving around and then making the pass, but it was only one play. He really looked bad the rest of the contest and hasn't looked very good this entire year. Heck, before last Sunday's game, he had only 7 vertical throws. 3.5 verts per game is about half of the vertical throw rate Jason Campbell put up in 2008 and he was excoriated for that.
Is Eddie Royal droppable? Who is more useful from here on out, Royal or Lance Moore?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Moore. Royal isn't being used the same way he was in the Shanahan O (or at least he isn't being used as often) and once Moore gets healthy and integrated, he'll be a very good spot starter.
What do you think about benching TO and starting Hester?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
I wouldn't do it this week. The Fins secondary is really bad and Owens should have a bounceback game because of it.
Ryan (San Diego)
How come I didnt see a Football Scientist preview video of the Chargers Steelers? How do you see that game playing out this weekend?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
When we filmed that clip, the matchup I focused on was Jamal Williams-based and Williams is now out. Williams was the only defender to do well in POA win percentage last year for SD and Pitt still ran for 124 yards. With him out, I see Pitt gaining at least that many on the ground if not more.
Not to defend Favre, but doesn't every offense and every team present it's own little model? Why should Favre be throwing vertically when the short WC offense worked well enough in the first two weeks? Btw, Jason Campbell can't throw a TD in the red zone, that's his problem.
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Lou, I'd agree with you on this except that Favre's vertical YPA was bad over the past three years. That contains two seasons in GB and a season in NY. His numbers are worse this year, so he's struggled now in three different offenses.
Have you watched tape on Denver? Provide some insight! To me, they look more disciplined and organized than they have in years. Pretenders or contenders?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
What I like about the Denver D is how they are utilizing Elvis Dumervil. They were using him as a DE last year and he's just not big enough to do that. Putting him at rush LB and letting him go all out on getting after the QB has made all of the difference both for him and this D. He's a Pro Bowler at this point and a case could be made for All Pro if he keeps his play at this level.
alright KC i want ur truly honest opnion on this one. Kerry Collins just has been cutting it this year we need a spark somewhere u think vince young can reignite tht spark tht he brought in 2006 to an 0-5 titans team. i personally think he can and will. and will he be seen this week in jax.thanks
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
Collins isn't a great vertical passer by any stretch but he sure would have been helped if Washington and Britt would have caught the catchable balls last week. I had Washington as a sleeper pick because of the favorable matchup and even though he scored 8 points, he could have been in double digits if not for the drops.
Blake (Abilene, TX)
Will Kansas City bench Johnson for Charles. LJ is having a poor year. Charles gets 5yds every time he tuches it and had 106 in his only start last year?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
They probably won't go so far as to bench LJ but getting more touches for Charles makes a lot of sense. He can do more with poor blocking than LJ.
What do you expect out of Kenny Britt this year? On pace for 50 receptions?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Other than the aforementioned drops, I like him. 50 receptions is three per game and I could easily see that out of him as long as he doesn't hit the rookie wall.
Thank you for the excellent pic last week(GB). I need another survivor pool pick of the week. Which one of these teams would you recommend?Indy home vs. Sea.....San Fran home vs. StL or NYG at. KC
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Go with the Giants v KC. The Chiefs have problems all over their roster.
Caldwell has looked like a good possession receiver for the Bengals through week 3...70 catches a possibility?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
He was on the Pass Plays pickup list this week because he is in the top 40 in the league in receptions. He's taking a lot of TJ's old role, so 70 catches are definitely a possibility.
What can we expect out of Fasano this week? Nothing through three weeks but faces the worst defense against tight ends with a new qb. Does he finally get some production?
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Fasano has dropped a TD and had one called back by penalty if memory serves me correct. I hate the idea of leaning on a guy with a new QB, but Henne will have to check down to someone and Fasano could be that guy. I would suggest seeing if Celek is available.
Jeff (NY, NY)
Does the Jets defense have any chance of slowing down the Saints this weekend? Also, what seems to be the problem with their running game this year?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
The Jets will have problems. Sheppard and Strickland aren't that good and both missed last week's game and Wednesday's practice due to injuries. If they are out, it will be very hard for the Jets to stop the NO offense. Haven't had much of a chance to look at the NY O line, will see what I can fit some time in for them in the next week.
I have Dwayne Bowe on my fantasy team, but I'm worried this hamstring problem will limit him. What is his ceiling as far as catches/yards/tds so I can try to evaluate his worth vs other WRs?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Bowe is a low YPA guy even when healthy (he didn't even top the team in YPA among WRs last year) and his hammy problem is a big concern. His matchup schedule the rest of the year is also brutal and that limits his upside. If you can get a solid #1 in a trade for him, you'd be on the winning side of that trade.
Rick (San Luis Obispo, CA)
KC, how do you account for intangibles in your statistical analysis of the game?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
I take the Bill James approach - an intangible should show up somewhere in a player's performance.
What do you think of a Jennings for P. Thomas swap? I have A. Johnson, Megatron, Holmes, and Manningham for WRs.
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Jennings is an elite and Thomas isn't, so I probably wouldn't make the trade.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
Will the Cowboys win a Super Bowl before the world ends in 2012 (just saw the movie preview!)?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
In a word, no. And I'd also suggest watching Penn and Teller's show about the world ending in 2012 - very funny and informative.
Lane (Kukuihaele, HI)
How about Davone Bess catching 70 this year?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
I'd have to give that a big no. I just don't trust Henne at this point.
Felix Jones is injury prone (rhymes). However his average per carry is insane. Should I trade him for someone more reliable?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
Gotta like someone who can rhyme their posts! I'd keep him - as long as he is healthy, you might not get a better flex option.
Richard (Greensboro, NC)
I was offered Slaton, TO, and Palmer for DeAngelo Williams and NYG Steve Smith. Feel like I'm buying low in a good spot, but they might stay low.
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Don't do it. Williams is still one of the best backs around and although I think Slaton will rebound, he isn't at Williams' level.
KC,On a bye week with Fitzgerald out. I have A Bryant as a fill in. Should I stick with him or pick up D Avery off of waivers?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
I'd go with Avery. The Bucs O had 13 yards at halftime last week and only one first down after three quarters of play. Bryant has also been battling injuries and now has a QB in his first start, so the negatives on him are overwhelming.
Bought your FF draft guide. Schaub and V. Jackson have been great. Will Deangelo get on track?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
Absolutely. Games against Washington, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Arizona and New Orleans (his week 5-9 matchup run) will turn him back into a dominant fantasy back.
KC, what are your thoughts on The Jags, Saints or any club moving in the next ten years or so?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
The Jags just haven't found a way to connect with Floridians. There has been talk recently of them moving to Orlando but as a 20 year resident of this city, I can tell you that they won't catch on here. Moving out west (LA?) would seem to be a better option if they can't get more local support.
Should I believe my eyes or your statistics about Favre. I saw a victory.
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
That's the thing about stats and percentages. If a stat is right 70% of the time, it is still wrong 30%. Favre made a great play but the numbers and scouting eye agree on his evaluation - he's not anywhere near the QB he was even two years ago. It just goes to show that physiologists are right - the human body has its biggest physical decline between the ages of 35-40. Favre is exhibit A for this in the NFL.
Would the Jaguars drafting Tebow make them connect with Floridians more? He's like the second coming of christ down there, right? Florida's Derek Jeter, if you will. Thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
That would be a move that would make all of the difference in the short run, but I would ask this. Let's assume that the pundits are right and Tebow's skill set doesn't translate very well to an NFL offense. If that occurs and the Jags start losing games with him under center (and there is no way they could draft him and not immediately play him), would the Tebow aura wear off? I don't know the answer to that but it would seem worth the risk to get the franchise to take root more than it has.
Mitch (Gainesville, FL)
As a Gator fan, I'd like to implore the Jaguars to NOT draft Tebow. They're not a well-run organization and I think it would ruin his already not-so-great chances of becoming a good NFL player.
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Mitch, you are a rarity! A Gainesville resident saying anything bad about Tebow happens as often as we see the Northern Lights.
Zach (Mpls, MN)
KC, looking for a #3 WR/TE this week - Lee Evans or Owen Daniels? BTW, Farve is terrible, has been for a while. Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
I'd take the chance on Evans. He has toasted the Fins secondary many times before and there is little reason to think he can't do it again (or at least one time, which would be enough to justify flex starting him).
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
Well if the Cowboys would listen to you, what would you advise they do to increase their chances at winning a Super Bowl in the next couple of seasons?
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
Getting a new coach would be the way to start. I wrote an article in Scientific Football 2009 reviewing the areas where coaches generally make an impact on their team and found Wade Phillips wanting in every area.
Lane (Kukuihaele )
Miami would be a better fit for Teabow right? Wildcat Tim?
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
He might not be the marketing impact down there that he would be in Northern and Central Florida. The U fans dominate down that way. Well, its a rare night in that Mrs. Scientist ordered a pizza and it just arrived, so I've got to run. Don't forget that you can keep track of all of the TFS material by following my Twitter account - kcjoynertfs. I hope to see you all here next week!