Chat with Brad Edwards
Welcome to SportsNation! On Monday, resident BCS expert Brad Edwards will drop by to chat about what the latest BCS standings mean to the nation's top teams going forward.
Send your questions now and join Brad Monday at 3 p.m. ET!
More Brad Edwards: Chats
Casey (Santa Clarita, CA)
Does a 1 loss SEC team get into the NC over a TCU undefeated team?
Brad Edwards (3:12 PM)
Iowa's loss last Saturday increases the possibility that Florida and Alabama now have a mulligan (can afford a loss) over the next three weeks. It was easy to see the possibility that an undefeated Big Ten team would finish ahead of a one-loss SEC champ, and even though the possibility still exists with an unbeaten TCU or Cincinnati, I don't think it's likely. And in addition to the potential favoritism toward the SEC team in this situation, I also think there would be some voters who'd try to avoid creating a national title game between two teams from the state of Texas. Bottom line: the choice between a one-loss SEC champ and undefeated TCU, Cincy or Boise would belong to the voters. Decide for yourself which way you think they'd go.
Why is it that Pitt moved into the top 10 in all 3 human polls yet only moved to #12 in the BCS?
Brad Edwards (3:15 PM)
Pitt's average ranking in the BCS computers is 13th, and that's one-third of the formula. If you really look at it, it's easy to understand why the computers think less of this team than the humans do. The Panthers' best wins are over South Florida and Rutgers, and they lost to NC State. Pitt, however, can raise its computer profile significantly by beating Notre Dame, West Virginia and Cincinnati to close the season.
Derek (Austin - Round Rock, TX)
Brad,As the resident BCS expert, would you be out of a job if there were a playoff?
Brad Edwards (3:18 PM)
I get this question several times a week, so I'll finally answer it. No, I don't think I'd be out of a job. You see what kind of criticism the basketball committee chair gets when he stands up after the selection show and explains why some team didn't make the field that probably would've just lost in the first round anyway. Imagine being the guy to explain why some team that was actually good enough to win the national title wasn't included in a four-team or eight-team football playoff. Nobody wants to be that guy, so they'd probably continue to use some version of the BCS Standings to help determine which teams would make the playoff.
Travis C. (Lake Highlands)
Brad, who should an undefeated Texas fear most: TCU, Cincy, or the one-loss SEC championship game loser? Can you devise a scenario where any of these pass an undefeated Texas?
Brad Edwards (3:23 PM)
In order for an undefeated Texas team to be vulnerable, the SEC champ would need to be getting all of the first-place votes, leaving Texas as a distant second in the polls. Then, the team that was third in the polls would need to be a very solid No. 3 and also rank at least two spots higher than Texas in every computer. The only team I can imagine being that strong in the computers would be Cincinnati, but I can't imagine the Bearcats climbing over TCU on enough ballots to be a solid No. 3 in the polls. I think Texas is safe.
So, how long before we see an anti-trust lawsuit against the NCAA/BCS? My guess is less than 3 years.
Brad Edwards (3:29 PM)
I don't know how likely it is that the anti-trust action ever develops, but I can assure you that the NCAA won't be involved. I always see and hear references to something in the BCS being "the NCAA's worst nightmare," but people need to realize that the NCAA has nothing to do with the BCS. If the NCAA were in charge of major-college football's postseason, there almost certainly would be a playoff, because that's what the NCAA does in every other sport. The major conferences, however, don't want the NCAA involved because they make more money through the bowl system than they would through an NCAA-sanctioned playoff (because of the revenue-sharing model used by the NCAA). In other words, you can hate the NCAA for a lot of things, but don't blame them if you don't like the BCS.
will ohio state have a chance at the bcs
Brad Edwards (3:30 PM)
If they beat Iowa, they'll be in the BCS (specifically, the Rose Bowl) as the Big Ten champion.
any chance of a UF and bama rematch if Texas loses?
Brad Edwards (3:34 PM)
About a month ago, I was asked about the possibility of the SEC Championship Game rematch, and I said that it would require a situation where voters were choosing between that and giving a team like Boise State a chance to play for the national title. Well, if Texas were to lose, that's pretty much where we'd be. I may be in the minority, but I think TCU is a very good team, and I'd much rather see the Frogs have a shot than watch a rematch of the SEC title game. Among many other reasons for this, I think a rematch would be totally unfair to the team that wins the SEC championship.
Please tell me Boise is not going to get left out in the cold again. You seem to be back and forth on this week to week, but most of the "experts" now think that if they win out they still get an at-large bid.
Brad Edwards (3:41 PM)
I think there are a lot of differences between this season and when Boise was left out last season. Last year, they finished ninth and were essentially passed over for a 10-2 Ohio State team that was ranked tenth. This year, Boise could finish in the top five, and the big-name teams that could potentially be selected instead of the Broncos will likely all have two losses, be ranked in double digits and be ending the regular season with very little momentum. It could be another public relations nightmare for the BCS, which has sure had its share of those. Right now, I think there's a better than average chance TCU and Boise will both play in the BCS, but it ultimately comes down to which other teams might be available and how those options appeal to whatever bowl might be selecting at that time. The team I feel is the biggest threat to BSU in this regard is a 10-2 USC.
Does Miami have ANY shot at an at large BCS spot? If so, who do I need to start rooting against?
Brad Edwards (3:46 PM)
What really hurts Miami is that the Orange Bowl is very unlikely to select them because the ACC champion would be the opponent. The Canes would have been an attractive at-large team for the Fiesta or Sugar back when they were a perennial national-title contender, but I don't think Miami would be as much of a draw in those markets right now. I'd be very surprised if Miami gets an at-large bid.
Does a one loss UT team (not in Big 12 game) get in before a one loss SEC team or any other unbeaten?
Brad Edwards (3:49 PM)
A one-loss SEC champ absolutely gets into the BCS title game ahead of a one-loss Texas. If the Horns lose at A&M and then win the conference title, it would be interesting to see whether voters would keep them in the top two of the polls. There's a chance, but I'd lean toward TCU or Cincinnati getting the nod instead. If Texas were to take its one loss in the Big 12 title game, I can't imagine there would still be a chance for the Longhorns to play for the BCS championship.
Aaron (Monterey, CA)
It isn't often that two Pac-10 teams make it to BCS bowl games. Which two do you think, based on what we have seen so far, are worthy (if two are selected)?
Brad Edwards (3:52 PM)
The way everything sits right now, I think USC (at 10-2) is the only one that could get an at-large invitation to the BCS, so that pretty much means Oregon would have to win the league for the Pac-10 to get two teams.
Do you see any way that Cincy can get to the NC game?
Brad Edwards (3:59 PM)
I think Cincy, because it has both West Virginia and Pittsburgh on its remaining schedule, has a good chance to stay ahead of TCU in the BCS computers. That means the Bearcats could finish ahead of the Frogs if they can close the gap on them in the polls. With a possible season-ending matchup of top-10 teams at Pittsburgh, it's certainly realistic. My belief is that if Texas drops a game, either Cincy or TCU will play the SEC champ for the BCS title.
Any way that 13th game of the season, played after TCU is done with their schedule, pushes Boise back in front in the polls, assuming Boise wins their next 4 impressively and TCU squeaks by with close victories?
Brad Edwards (4:01 PM)
I don't think there's anything the Broncos can do to pass the Frogs. In my opinion, only TCU can stop TCU from finishing higher than Boise State. Barring a close win against an inferior opponent (or a loss), TCU should win the race for the "BCS Buster" spot.
if Nebraska runs the table beating texas the big 12 championship game is there a chance it makes a bcs game?
Brad Edwards (4:04 PM)
Winning the Big 12 gets you an automatic bid to a BCS game - almost certainly the Fiesta. So I guess you could say Nebraska controls its own destiny to reach the BCS.
Is there a scenario where Pitt can get to #2 in the BCS? Especially with 2 ranked teams left and an inevitable defacto Big East Championship game with Cincy?
Brad Edwards (4:10 PM)
I can see Pitt winning out and jumping Georgia Tech to become the highest-ranked one-loss team, but there's no realistic scenario that would get them into the top two. Yes, it's technically possible for every team in front of Pitt to lose once or twice, but it's not going to happen.
Heard somone say PSU might still get a BCS at large? This can't be true, can it? IF, and I mean IF, they win out...the best team they beat is a Michigan st team that lost to Notre Dame and Central Michigan. Tell me they're out of it...
Brad Edwards (4:17 PM)
I wouldn't say Penn State is definitely out of it. At 10-2, they'd be given consideration for an at-large bid, but my opinion is that the Big Ten team most likely to get an at-large spot is Wisconsin. I don't think their chances are good either, but the Badgers could also finish 10-2 and would have a five-game winning streak. Considering Wisconsin hasn't been to a BCS game in 10 years, it would sell a lot of tickets. Wisconsin would just need to climb six more spots and finish in the top 14 to be eligible.
Brad Edwards (4:22 PM)
Thanks, everyone. And to the many of you who asked why USC is ranked ahead of Oregon this week... I don't have an explanation, but at least it doesn't matter. Oregon still controls its Rose Bowl destiny, and USC does not. See you next week.