Chat with Keith Law
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, MLB Insider Keith Law will be here to take your questions on anything baseball related.
Law is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc. Before joining ESPN, Law served as special assistant to the general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays and was a writer for Baseball Prospectus.
Send your questions now and join Law Thursday at 1 p.m. ET!
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Klaw (1:03 PM)
I heard Jimmy Rollins just predicted that Pat Neshek would order the porterhouse for lunch.
Steve (Cincinnati)
Klaw, I saw your back-and-forth with Paul Daugherty recently. How can you expect small-market teams to succeed when they can't hold onto their own young stars?! Look at all the ex-Reds and ex-Pirates and ex-Padres dominating the playoffs in recent years!!! Not fair!!!!
Klaw (1:09 PM)
That's funny - I had no idea Paul published any of it, since he didn't ask me first, which seems like a basic professional courtesy. He also omitted the part where I asked him for links to any of the "studies" or "research" he mentioned in his initial article, which he at first wouldn't provide (telling me at one point "As for the research, do it yourself."), eventually just sending me a link to the Blue Ribbon report, a Baltimore Sun article, and a few mentions of something Andrew Zimbalist wrote in the late 1990s, finishing by saying "I hope we're done." I thought his original article was wrong, and I still do.
jeff (nyc)
Keith,I just don't understand the rationale of throwing away $2M and a roster spot on Griffey Jr. just because he was good ten years ago.
Klaw (1:11 PM)
But you don't understand how much he means to that clubhouse, and that city. Oh, wait, I had my chat software set to "stupid." It's fixed now. Griffey sucks. Roster spots have value and blowing one on a REPEAT nostalgia trip is a terrible idea. And I do not believe for a moment that the same front office that figured out how to overhaul the defense and turn that team into a run-prevention force in one offseason without spending much money is the same one that thinks it's a good idea to waste a few million and a spot on a guy who needs to pick up a copy of "Retiring Gracefully for Dummies."
Jibraun (Los Angeles, CA)
Rob Neyer bashed the BBWAA for voting Adrian Gonzalez over Albert Pujols. Do you agree with that sentiment?
Klaw (1:12 PM)
He bashed the coaches/managers, just to be precise. I didn't get worked up over that one. Gonzalez is also a superb defender at first, so while Pujols might be better, this isn't an egregious error. On the other hand, Hudson over Utley was criminal.
Mike Minor (Arizona)
Keith, if I can consistently pitch in the 91-93 range that I've shown in the AFL, how does that affect my prospect status.
Klaw (1:13 PM)
Well, you didn't, and you can't, so let's stick to more realistic questions.
Justin (New YOrk, NY)
could the M's think of griffey as an investment? we pay him 2 million, but he makes us MORE than 2 million in packed seats / beer / concessions / merchandise???
Klaw (1:14 PM)
Except that he doesn't. What moves the financial needle is winning. A replacement-level DH doesn't produce $3+ million in revenues (since he'd have to cover his salary AND the cost of the spot).
W.T. (Kentucky)
Who should the Reds trade?
Klaw (1:14 PM)
Dusty Baker.
Chris (San Fran, CA)
Keith, last night on ESPN you said Rafael Furcal deserved the gold glove more than Jimmy Rollins. Furcal had 20 errors and Rollins 6. What's your rationalization here?
Klaw (1:15 PM)
I am seriously hoping this is an attempt at klawbait, because it's 2009, and if you're judging fielders by their error totals, I'm not sure how you figured out how to turn the computer on.
PJ (Chicago)
Hey KLAW! Can you give me a starting point for a Cubs deal for Granderson? Is Phil Rogers' article this morning suggesting Marmol and Castro too much?
Klaw (1:15 PM)
Yeah, WAY too much for a player who probably needs to be platooned.
Justin (Normal, IL)
Keith, I need an explanation to your thoughts on the ChiSox- KC trade. How does KC "win" when they get two average at best guys with low OBP, nevermind that the Royals already have a third baseman who is better, for a guy who essentially makes it possible move Beckham back to his natural position, (something you wanted them to do all along) and going into the prime of his career?
Klaw (1:17 PM)
First of all, Teahen has two years left of team control, while Fields and Getz have five apiece. I also believe Fields has significant upside - which I spelled out in the last blog entry - while Teahen has demonstrated that he's at best a below-average everyday 3b. What the deal allows Chicago to do with Beckham is irrelevant. They could have moved him to 2b (not his natural position, anyway) without acquiring Teahen.
H (Philly)
Keith, speaking of the KC - ChiSox trade, was it worth $1MM to get the rights to Getz and Fields or would KC have been better off just non-tendering Teahen?
Klaw (1:18 PM)
Yes, it's worth the $1 million. I think Getz alone, as a 24th/25th guy on a team, will be worth that (net of salaries) over the next few years. And I'm not even a big Getz fan.
Matt (Denver, CO)
Congratulations, I heard you won a gold glove!
Klaw (1:18 PM)
Thanks, I had a great year at the plate!
Matt (Jersey)
Klaw, what type of deal do you think Sheets should/will get? Would you take a flier on him?
Klaw (1:20 PM)
Absolutely. I think I'd even be willing to guarantee a good chunk of the deal. My theory on Sheets is that the full year off has probably given his body an unprecedented (for him) chance to heal, since he's had a lot of annoying-to-worse non-arm injuries since his last 200-inning season. All of this is in my free agent capsule on Sheets - I filed them before vacation so they could go up any day now.
Dave (Chicago)
Keith, It has been speculated that Detroit is listening to offers for Granderson and Jackson. Is this just speculation? What would you expect in return for both players?
Klaw (1:20 PM)
They'll have to fish Jackson out of the toilet before they can trade him. But yes, I think they saw that his first half was a mirage and would like to flip him before his value deteriorates any further.
J.B. (Dunmore, PA)
Klaw: The Tim Hudson deal is now official. Do you expect the Braves to trade away one of their other starters now and if so, who is the best bet and who would be the best trade partner for Atlanta?
Klaw (1:21 PM)
I wrote in Rumor Central this morning (I'm writing blurbs for them 2-3 times a day now) that the man to move is Lowe. His contract is big and all indicators pointed down this year. I'd always try to move the veteran (given a choice of several) with the higher potential collapse rate, so to speak.
Mike (CT)
What is your favorite city to visit in the U.S.? In the World?
Klaw (1:23 PM)
New Orleans. Florence, Italy.
Mark (DC)
Any chance Hermida pans out for the Sox? I know they didn't give up much for him, so it was worth taking a flier, but how likely is it he finally puts it all together to warrant his previous hype?
Klaw (1:24 PM)
Well, he's 26, he's leaving a bad power ballpark, and he does have a great eye. He also struggles to stay healthy and may not play every day in Boston. I always liked him, probably deriving from the '02 draft when our scouts were very high on him, but it hasn't worked out and I'd say the odds of it happening now are low.
Cox (Somerset, NJ)
Are we getting another Klaw top 50 free agent list this year? Or are there not 50 good enough free agents for such a list?
Klaw (1:24 PM)
I did make it to 50. They're written, ranked, and filed.
JJ (brooklyn)
Any chance Tex's 49 assists this season was luck or a statistical anomaly, or did he clearly get to a ridiculously low amount of balls this season?
Klaw (1:26 PM)
He takes a lot of groundballs himself, right? I think Bill James did a big bit on this in the last Historical Abstract - that 1b defensive measures are often skewed by the first baseman's preference (throw or take himself) on grounders to him.
Zorro (Austin)
If your son was a mid first round prospect, would you tell him to take the money and enjoy playing in Altoona, or take the free ride to Stanford?
Klaw (1:26 PM)
Take the money. Absolutely take the money.
Mick (Chicago)
Please give us the top 3 ranking European countries for player signings in the next 10 years.
Klaw (1:27 PM)
Netherlands, Italy ... either Spain or Germany third.
Brendan (Boston)
FWIW, Seattle drew more fans with a worse team in 2008 than with a better team (record wise) and Griffey in 2009. I'm sure the economy factors in there somewhere but the decline was in line with the rest of MLB. So, Griffey does not equal more revenue.
Klaw (1:29 PM)
Worth noting.
Chriss (West Palm Beach)
I agree that in a perfect world, it would be best for the Braves to trade Lowe, but with the money and a down year, is there any realistic chance that the Braves CAN trade him?
Klaw (1:30 PM)
Yes - or, I think so, given his reputation and durability. And maybe 3 years of his deal looks better than 3+ years to some of the available FA starters.
Nathan (KC)
Wouldn't it be great if McGwire went to a press conference and said "I won't be apologizing for taking a legal supplement and helping to make baseball popular again so give it up; it'd be nice if you'd bother Selig and Fehr about this for once; I'm glad to know none of you patron saints enjoyed any of those taters when I was actually hitting them in the late 90's; and screw your Hall Of Fame, if I'm going for immortality then I wanna be wherever Jim Rice isn't. Thank you." I think that'd be AMAZING.
Klaw (1:30 PM)
I think I'd faint.
Norm (Lake Katrine, NY)
What would you, in Jed Hoyer's shoes, accept in exchange for A-Gon -- in generic terms rather than specific names? I read speculation about five MLB-ready players. What is both doable and would be of use to the Padres? Also, what teams do you see as the most likely partners?
Klaw (1:31 PM)
That's a pretty rich haul. I'd want some near-in talent, but I'd be happy with a four-five player deal that included a couple of impact/high-upside A-ballers. The Padres don't need to suddenly be good in 2010; they need to build for the long term. I just wouldn't accept a package like what the Phils gave up for Lee or offered for Halladay, where their top 3 prospects weren't in the mix, so it was just some long-term upside and some near-term 45's and 50's.
Old Hoss Radbourn (The Ultimate Bullpen)
K. Law, does it bug you that people still ask questions about errors and wins and the like? I've been dead for 100+ years and even I know they don't matter. Of course, talent, heart, and intangibles are still off-limit.
Klaw (1:32 PM)
I just hope this is the same Old Hoss from Twitter.
Matt (Philadelpha)
Keith- who should be more "tickled Pink" by Griffy re-signing: mariners fans or Angels fans?
Klaw (1:32 PM)
Angels fans. A's and Rangers fans too.
Mike (São Paulo)
Klaw - have you heard of any teams interested in seeting up development camps in Brazil, similar to what has been done in China? There's a huge population here, and a growing middle-class population, where the children have no chance of becoming futebol stars (similar to middle class children in the US have no chance of becoming basketball stars).
Klaw (1:33 PM)
Tampa Bay did, or they are doing so (I assume it's open by now). If I was a GM or a new international scouting director, that is probably the first non-traditional country I'd target. Big population, some pockets of baseball activity, and little competition from other MLB clubs so far. Your main competitors for talent there would actually be NPB clubs.
Mitch (Baltimore)
If Andy MacPhail calls Jed Hoyer and offers Felix Pie, Jake Arrieta, Brandon Erbe and Caleb Joseph for Adrian Gonzalez does Hoyer a) snicker privately, b) laugh out loud, or c) hang up and call Theo to tell him the funny joke he just heard?
Klaw (1:34 PM)
Mostly I just like the idea of (c) happening.
Jimbo (Brooklyn)
Klaw, so what's the skinny on Granderson's impotency vs Lefties? Is it a fixable thing, and is he even someone who would work to fix it?
Klaw (1:35 PM)
Any LH hitter with that kind of split should work to fix it, but you could see even in the '06 Series that he couldn't hit breaking stuff from lefties. It's chronic, not a one-year fluke.
Keith Law (Bristol CT)
Mirror, mirror, on the wall who is most critical person of players and signings of them all?
Klaw (1:35 PM)
There's a Keith Law in Bristol?
Brewers Fan (Milwaukee)
When a GM says that he won't listen to trade offers about a certain player, how true is that in most cases? Like if another GM calls him up and says "Fielder", does Melvin just hang up immediately? Call me crazy, but it seems like a GM is an idiot if he won't at least listen to an offer for anybody on his team or in his system.
Klaw (1:36 PM)
You're not crazy. You always listen. A GM who doesn't isn't doing his job.
Brian (Omaha)
If you're running 'the process' in KC, would you consider dealing Greinke and/or Soria?
Klaw (1:37 PM)
Wouldn't look to move Greinke. Soria, maybe - closer is a luxury on a bad team, lot of breakdown risk for relievers in general.
stephen (pa)
Who is the best pick up for the phillies at 3rd base who will fit there team and lineup best? and next year victorino and werths contracts are up do they resign both or let one go and bring up taylor from the minors?
Klaw (1:37 PM)
Of all the FA options, Beltre's the best fit.
Mike (Akron)
Hey Klaw!! Are the Indians a .500 team at best?
Klaw (1:37 PM)
I'm not sure how to give them a 2010 rotation that gets them to .500, even if their offense exceeds expectations.
Jason (St Louis)
Say in theory, Albert Pujols was put on the trade block. Is there a deal out there that would be fair value for him? I'm just wondering if any one team even has the pieces to put together for a player of his caliber, not that the Cardinals would ever trade him.
Klaw (1:40 PM)
If you ignore the PR angle for a moment, if the Giants would give up, say, Lincecum, Sandoval, and Posey, wouldn't you do it? In cold value terms, it's a huge win for the Cardinals, considering years of control, salaries, and just plain performance. For any one player, you could always put together a 3-player package that would make a trade logical. It would almost never happen in real life, but you can concoct such a scenario.
Arturo (Veracruz, Mexico)
Just to know: if Spanish is my favorite language and I write in Spanish, does it lessen my chances of have my question selected?What's your opinion about Frank Wren, Braves' scouting team and in general the team's future?
Klaw (1:44 PM)
Either one works. If you write in Finnish, though, you're out of luck. Drafts had been very good before 2009's, but they had a rough one this year, and the upheaval in their scouting department in the last four months is a real negative. They've made some excellent trades - Javy Vazquez, getting Jair Jurrjens in the Renteria deal (I heard one of their front office guys, John Coppolella, really pushed for Jurrjens) - but entered the season with an outfield that was just embarrassing for a would-be contender. The Francoeur fetish lasted way too long. So the answer is the future looks mixed.
Jason (St Louis)
Did you read any good books on your vacation?
Klaw (1:44 PM)
Cold Comfort Farm - funniest book I've read all year. Review is on the dish.
Bob (Cleveland)
You continually pan the Indians for the Lee deal, but to me it is apparent that ownership was putting a lot of pressure on Shapiro to cut payroll. Shapiro was even quoted as saying that team's were undervaluing Lee and overvaluing their own prospects this go-round. While, I am taking a wait and see approach on the trade, I don't think there really was an alternative.
Klaw (1:46 PM)
I can't tell you what the split is there - how much to pin on ownership and how much on the front office. All I can say is that I would have walked away from that Phillies package. I've never been wild about Marson or Carrasco, and Knapp's arm action scared me before he got hurt again.
Adam (Milwaukee)
KLaw...Completely random trade thought:Prince Fielder, Manny Parra, & either Salome or Lucroy to the Braves for Hanson
Klaw (1:47 PM)
Random = wrong adjective.
Brad (St. Louis)
Stark said yesterday that he likes Snider over Lind long term - do you agree?
Klaw (1:47 PM)
Yes. But not for 2010, obviously.
Stephen (Knauff)
Reading your analysis of the Hardy/Gomez trade, I got the vibe you feel that neither team got the better of trade, woul you say this is accurate?
Klaw (1:48 PM)
I can't excited over either guy. I've never loved Hardy's swing or approach, but Gomez may never see a .330 OBP. I do think Gomez has a chance to be an average regular because of his glove and some small power potential, but ... I'm not saying I don't want him on my team, but I wouldn't go out of my way to get him.
Klaw (1:49 PM)
Sorry, chat software being chat software. False.
Brent (Lake Geneva, WI)
Please rank the following outfielders in terms of the next 5 years performance: Rasmus, McCutchen, Fowler, Maybin. Thanks KLaw!
Klaw (1:49 PM)
Exactly that order, best to worst.
J (Philly)
Do you consider Beltre the best option overall for the Phillies or just the best natural 3B? Also aside from age I am not sure what is gained by going from Feliz to Beltre. Beltre slugged .380 last year... ouch.
Klaw (1:50 PM)
Bum shoulder, though. I'll cut him some slack.
Jim Riggleman (DC)
How am I more qualified than Bobby Valentine? There are quite a few things about baseball I don't understand, namely pitch counts, developing young players, and winning, but this is something I really can't grasp.
Klaw (1:51 PM)
You'll work cheap. By the way, how about leaking the dope to your disgraced former GM on the day your franchise player wins the team's first-ever Gold Glove? Stay classy!
Justin (Pittsburgh)
Back to that first question. If only the Reds could have held on to Chase Utley, CC Sabathia, and Albert Pujols if there was a salary cap... Wait, what former reds have done anything in the postseason since paul o'neil'?
Klaw (1:53 PM)
And by the way, is the financial inequity in baseball the reason they passed on Gordon Beckham and took Yonder Alonso? I saw Jocketty quoted earlier this week about the need for hard slotting in the draft ... hard slotting doesn't help if your evaluations aren't right. I like Alonso, but Beckham was better and they have a chronic need at short.
Matt (Kansas City)
Are AJ Elli's on-base skills going to remain in the big leagues with his lack of speed and power?
Klaw (1:53 PM)
No. You don't want him for Callaspo.
Eric (RI)
Does Casey Kelly have Rick Porcello upside? They seem very similar to me in terms of stuff and both preformed well against more advanced competition for their age with somewhat low K rates.
Klaw (1:54 PM)
Different cats entirely. Porcello's low K rate came from his switch to a two-seamer that generated groundballs. Kelly's not as advanced at the same age (naturally, since he was a two-way guy and he and his father still seem to believe he should be a shortstop).
JJ (Brooklyn)
I understand based on UZR etc. that Mark Tiexiera should not have won the Gold Glvoe this year. My questoin is how did Mark Tiexiera only have 49 assists this year at 1st base, fewer than Kevin Youkilis who played half as many games there and less than half of the AL leader (Miguel Cabrera with 105). Is this some kind of record?
Klaw (1:55 PM)
I look at UZR for every position but first base. It just doesn't seem to work there.
Chris (NY)
Keith, I just picked up Risk Pool last night - I haven't read any other Russo, is this an ok place to start?
Klaw (1:55 PM)
Definitely. I've liked all three that I've read, with two more on the shelf.
JB ((Dallas))
I know it's early to ask, but who has the highest upside of the college 2011 draftees? Cole? Armstrong? Other?
Klaw (1:56 PM)
Probably Armstrong. Cole has the biggest arm, but Armstrong looks more likely to have the total package. I haven't seen Hultzen, though.
shaun (stl)
who will end up being the best HS bat from the '09 class? tate, borchering, trout, davidson...?
Klaw (1:57 PM)
Just bat, not overall? Davidson was my guy. But Trout's going to add defensive value, and I'm not ruling out Tate's chance to hit.
JJ (brooklyn)
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE 49 ASSISTS THING - HOW DID HE MANAGE THAT?!
Klaw (1:57 PM)
ASKED AND ANSWERED
Jeff (Boston, MA)
Are most writers on MLB payroll? They are all talking about how the system is broken because one year all the high payroll teams make the playoffs!!!
Klaw (1:58 PM)
The problem is that you're asking writers who cover baseball to write about economics, and most of them are just not equipped to do so. I find it a stretch myself and I at least have some academic background in it.
Bryan (Springfield, MO)
Keith, would Billingsley, Dewitt, Gordon, and Hu/Dejesus get Halladay to LA?
Klaw (1:59 PM)
No.
John (Detroit)
What's the scoop on this Scott Sizemore kid that the Tigers are talking about bringing up and 2nd base for next year? Is he a MLB player or are the Tigers blowing smoke as per usual (like they did with Iorg a few years back).
Klaw (1:59 PM)
MLB player. Solid-average regular, might be a below average fielder who covers with the bat. Broke his ankle in the AFL but is supposed to be ready for spring training. I can't warm up to Iorg at all.
Adam (Milwaukee)
Sorry about the poor English. Could I get your general thoughts on the following trade:Fielder, Parra, & Lucroy for Hanson
Klaw (2:00 PM)
I wasn't correcting your grammar. I was telling you the trade is absurd.
Logan (Philly)
Do you see Brown as the heir apparent for Ibanez teaming with Victorino & Werth?
Klaw (2:02 PM)
I see Brown in their outfield in 2-3 years. Taylor's first. By the way, how do Phillie fans feel about two more years of Ibanez?
Zachary E. (Saginaw Mich.)
what is up with all these Edwin Jackson trade rumors? Shouldn't Detroit just keep him?
Klaw (2:02 PM)
No.
Klaw (2:02 PM)
No.
rayg (burlington, nj)
Will Tabata take over RF in Pitt over Garrett Jones in 2010?
Klaw (2:03 PM)
No. I think that's a year early.
Klaw (2:03 PM)
Zachary: No. They should move him. Good bet for an ERA near 5 next year.
Mitch (Boulder, CO)
Any suggestions for spicing up quinoa? I can't stand it plain...
Klaw (2:04 PM)
Cook it in broth with some butter and salt so you get taste into the grains themselves. 101cookbooks has a recipe where you stir broccoli pesto into it - concept works with any pesto, though, like roasted red pepper pesto.
Gerry (Toronto)
Keith - What do you think you of the strategy of Alex Anthopoulos trying to out scout the other teams?
Klaw (2:05 PM)
Good strategy. Not going to outspend the Yanks/Sox. Have to outscout them. That means outevaluate them, though, not just outhire them.
Chris (Toronto)
Does the fact that just about everyone in the AFL is hitting better then Dustin Ackley mean anything?
Klaw (2:05 PM)
No. Pretty long year for him.
Paul (NY)
Potentially silly trade offer:F-Mart, Maine, Castillo + cash for Phillips, Arroyo/Harrang. Would the Reds need more?
Klaw (2:06 PM)
I wouldn't do it if I was Omar.
Doug (Cincinnati)
I am so sick of hearing Walt Jocketty complain about the payroll. He was the one who gave up Stewart and Roenicke to pay Scott Rolen $10 million this year.
Klaw (2:06 PM)
That too.
Jennifer (Philly)
Do you think there is any chance that Jamie Moyer will retire, and the Phils save 6 million on him?
Klaw (2:06 PM)
I doubt it. But they could approach him about a buyout if he's on the fence.
Matt (Philly)
Speaking of unloading Ibanez. The cubs wanted him originally, anyway we could dump salary on them and maybe pick up a prospect (or heck, a suspect)?
Klaw (2:07 PM)
Not a bad thought. They seem to be in the market and Hendry loves him some veterans.
Bob (Seattle)
Any ideas for a vegetarian type dish for Thanksgiving that isn't mushy other than a salad? Maybe some sort of fresh pesto pasta?
Klaw (2:08 PM)
Mac and cheese? I'm going to do an upscale one with gruyere as the main cheese in the sauce. Or a potato gratin, maybe with goat cheese and thyme.
LUIS (Guatemala)
made it! how was the vacation?
Klaw (2:08 PM)
Great, thanks. Although Twitter is kind of a vacation ruiner. I didn't have the willpower to disable it on my phone.
kl (philly)
veg thanksgiving dish: stuffed acorn squash, check out the recipes in the moosewood cookbook, i know its been around forever, but good veg recipes.
Frank (LA, CA)
I'm an MBA student who would love to work in baseball - any advice as to how to get my foot in the door?
Klaw (2:10 PM)
My advice to MBAs who want to work in baseball: Don't. Either quit school, or give up baseball. The ROI is awful. If I'd known I was going to work in baseball, I wouldn't have bothered with the MBA. It's useless if you want to work in this industry.
Miles (Wrigley)
I'm surprised you like Twitter. It's the opposite of intellectual and who really cares what someone is doing.
Klaw (2:11 PM)
I like using it for running commentary and one-liners, and it's been great for pointing people to my columns and appearances. I'm a big fan.
Old Hoss Radbourn (The Ultimate Bullpen)
Miles from Wrigley is obviously unfamiliar with my Twitter account.
Klaw (2:12 PM)
Very true.
Klaw (2:12 PM)
OK, thanks for the questions. I'll be back next week.
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