ESPN

KC Joyner

  (4:00 PM)

Hello! Got a pretty good game on the docket this evening, so there is no better time to talk some football!

Zach (New York, NY)

Have your scouting eyes noticed that Jay Cutler has gotten slower and a little doughy in the gut?

KC Joyner

  (4:02 PM)

Might as well get this started with a Jay Cutler comment. I haven't quite noticed the gut but I have noticed that his volume of risky passes is declining. That doesn't excuse the insane pass he made last week off of his back foot and into coverage as the pass rush was closing on him, but it is a positive sign that maybe he is finally on board with lowering his bad decision rate.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

While I enjoyed the games last weekend, I thought they lacked Favreability. Do you agree, KC?

KC Joyner

  (4:03 PM)

Favreability - someone give me a definition of this.

Knish (NYC)

KCOver the past few days, I asked a few ESPN chat hosts what they thought of the Dolphins 2 rookie CBs (Davis and Smith), they both gave solid reviews, and both mentioned Chris Clemons (rookie safety on the Fins as the sleeper of the group. What do you think of the 3 rookie DBs?

KC Joyner

  (4:05 PM)

I just did something on those two for today's CB Corner article. In a nutshell, they are both playing better every week, but they still let shorter passes get turned in larger gains (see the Moss and Cotchery plays the past two weeks). If they can resolve that issue, Miami will be in very good shape on the CB front.

John (Wisconsin)

Hi KC,I was wondering how College Running Backs from Option-based offenses convert into NFL Running backs. For example, Jonathan Dwyer from Georgia Tech is typically in a Wing Formation, but Mel Kipper has his rated as the #2 Junior Running back that could come out. I would think the Wing formation would hurt a NFL prospect's rating. Have you noticed any trends on how well running backs are converting from Option-based college offenses?Thank you for your time!John, Wisconsin

KC Joyner

  (4:07 PM)

I can't say that I've noticed any trends yet, as I am in the midst of a DT run in the Draft Lab series (check out this week's article on Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy - he's a fantastic pro prospect). Having said that, my main criterion in measuring RBs is their ability to gain yards when they get good blocking, so as long as Dwyer does that, his transition to the NFL should be smooth.

Titus C. (Wilmington, Delaware)

Hey KC. Since you "record and breakdown every NFL game" what common characteristic makes very good to great wide receivers the force they are? I don't think its speed (Larry Fitzgerald vs Desean Jackson) or height (Randy Moss vs Steve Smith)?

KC Joyner

  (4:08 PM)

Route running. The best wideouts can run the entire tree and can produce quality numbers at all depth levels.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

KC: Maybe you can help me to understand this. Devone Bess has been less than stellar thus far and has actually scored NEGATIVE points in FFL twice. He is projected for a 10-point day Sunday. Is this just a hunch or are there actual trends here that make this possible?

KC Joyner

  (4:09 PM)

My understanding of the system is that it is based on trends, but it isn't solely offensive trends. TB has one of the highest pass YPA allowed totals on defense and I imagine that's what the system is using to project good performances out of the Miami players.

Aaron (Aspen, CO)

I need a RB2 and a WR2 out of the following: J-Stew, LT2 and MSW, Hester. Do I play the matchups and play J-Stew-Hester or the possible bigger upside with LT2-MSW?

KC Joyner

  (4:11 PM)

That's a bit of a complex question for the quick answer environment that is the chat, but I can say that I believe Hester will have a strong night. SF's CBs haven't been tested much and since the Bears aren't running the ball well, they'll probably test those CBs often.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Oh and Favreability: An underlying buzz and excitement about a game often generated by a key player returning home to face a franchise he helped to rebuild.

KC Joyner

  (4:12 PM)

I figured it was defined as the ability to turn any situation into a discussion about yourself. Favre does that better than anyone.

Trenton: (Kent, WA) [via mobile]

What are Ocho's prospects for a good game in the ketchup bottle this weekend? Thanks.

KC Joyner

  (4:13 PM)

He's got William Gay in coverage and Gay is once again having a great season. If the Bengals move Chad over to the other side against Ike Taylor (and Pittsburgh doesn't respond by moving Gay), his prospects improve but as long as he has Gay in coverage, I don't like his chances.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

No, that would be Ochocinobility.

KC Joyner

  (4:14 PM)

I always get them mixed up!

Dan (San Diego)

Do you think the Chargers should draft a reciever like Eric Decker to complement Vincent Jackson? I really don't think Malcolm Floyd will ever be a phenomenal receiver.

KC Joyner

  (4:15 PM)

Floyd has terrific vertical capabilities but I'm with you in that he might not have the shorter route running skills to make him a complete WR. With Jackson and Gates' abilities to do that, SD might not need Floyd to do everything but it sure would help.

dan (huntsville)

Got a trade offerJacobs for bush. This just sounds too good be true-is there something in jacobs schedule I should be scared of?

KC Joyner

  (4:17 PM)

In a word, no, but with a caveat. Jacobs has a bye this week and it could be that the other owner is figuring he'll get five starts out of the deal versus four for Jacobs.

Mike (Ohio)

Before I head off to check out your CB Corner, I wanted to ask: Have you graded Jarraud Powers yet? He seems like a good find by the Colts.

KC Joyner

  (4:18 PM)

I'm completely with you there. There was an expectation that the Colts would lose something with Powers in the lineup but his coverage skills are superb. Having said that, I'll be curious to see how the Colts CBs hold up against Welker and Moss. If they pass that test, it will time to consider them starting quality CBs.

Eric (Denver Co)

KC who do you like tonight between the Bears and 49ers and what's you prediction?

KC Joyner

  (4:19 PM)

I've got it 27-21 Bears. Chicago's passing game will be the difference.

Ryan (San Diego)

Hey Floyd has some pretty sure hands. Did you see his slant route over the middle and the diving catch on the game winning drive against NY? Was pretty nice

KC Joyner

  (4:20 PM)

I'm with you on this. He's a bit raw in some ways but when Floyd is on, he's a very good wideout. That's part of why I'm not entirely sure SD should throw in the towel on him by getting another wideout.

Ian (Cincinnati, OH)

K.C., prior to this season the metrics showed William Gay as possibly being one of the better cover corners in the NFL. What do the metrics say this year thus far?

KC Joyner

  (4:21 PM)

I don't have those totals right in front of me but I do remember at last check that Gay was under the six yard mark. To put it another way, his metrics were similar to his dominant 2008 metrics.

Clay (Charlotte)

Non-Football related question. I feel it was unfair to be made fun of by my boss because I mis-identified a Peter Frampton song...I was born in 1984, what do you think?

KC Joyner

  (4:23 PM)

Clay, as someone whose name reminds people of a famous 70s band, you've come to the right place. Frampton's way before your time, so your boss should back off on this one. On a somewhat related note, have you guys seen that commercial with KC and the Sunshine Band where that insurance company tries to get them to change their name? It's classic!

Mike (San Diego)

KC, CBA question for you. If there is no cap next year, do you see teams dumping a lot of "high" priced players, since the dead money would mean nothing? J. Russell could be cut, and all those signing bonus won't affect anything for Duh Raiduhs. Just an example

KC Joyner

  (4:26 PM)

I'm not 100% certain how the dead money would be handled, but assuming it does mean nothing, I could see a situation like the one you are suggesting. From what I've heard, if there is no agreement, there is a concern that teams won't go on shopping sprees. It sounds counterintuitive but teams could be concerned about future revenues and therefore might not be as willing to spend money as they have been in the past.

Mike (Ohio)

Call me crazy but I think Powers and Lacey will hold up fine against Moss and Welker. If I were Belichick I would go with 3 wideouts as much as I could and force the Colts to put Jennings on the field. He's the achilles heel, I think. What say you?

KC Joyner

  (4:27 PM)

Jennings history would have me agreeing with you. Having said that, I believe it was Lacey who nearly gave up a 40+ yard bomb pass to Andre Davis last week (Davis dropped the ball). I couldn't help but think that Moss wouldn't drop that pass and NE will certainly do all they can to replicate that occurrence this week.

Bijou Drains (Shepard's Bush, UK)

Reports are coming out that The Who are playing the Super Bowl halftime show. Thoughts?

KC Joyner

  (4:27 PM)

It certainly wouldn't hurt Roger Daltry's solo tour, that's for sure.

Jason (Calgary, AB)

Another Eagles injury question. The Birds will have started (I believe) 6 different LB combos this year (another 2 or 3 if you count preseason). Can the Philly D maintain their mostly solid play with this kind of turnover?

KC Joyner

  (4:29 PM)

I'm as worried about their nickel CB situation as I am there LB situation. Losing Joselio Hanson is big and Ellis Hobbs didn't pan out like the Eagles wanted. It is possible to put together a scheme that limits that weakness, especially when you have two strong starting CBs like the Eagles have, but they'll need to put that into every game plan.

Ed Hochuli (Chat Ref)

KC, after reviewing the play, I'm afraid I disagree. Clay should know that song. Dwell on the past and you'll lose an eye. Forget the past and you will lose both. The result of the play is that Clay is hereby sentenced to listening to Time Life Books 70s music DVDS. It remains first down.

KC Joyner

  (4:30 PM)

Am I the only chatter who gets chat refs? I seem to see these types of rulings every couple of weeks.

Garrett (Chicago)

KC, I'm not sure which team you're watching, but my Bears are past awful. If Jeff Reed makes 1 of 2 easy FGs and we play Seattle with Matt Hasslebeck, we're at 2-6 with our only wins being Detroit and Cleveland. What makes you think my Bears can beat a team like SF? We can't block, we can't run and we can't play defense... What will stop Frank Gore from running all over us?

KC Joyner

  (4:32 PM)

Garrett, I think it is a matter of Lovie Smith being forced by the matchup to do something he generally doesn't want to do - throw the ball. If he tries to force the run and make this a low scoring game, I'm with you on the Bears losing the game. If Smith does what the matchups say he should do, Chicago wins this game.

Titus C. (Wilmington, Delaware)

Hey KC. I plan on playing football next year for my high school. You told me that route running is important for good receivers. Do I learn by doing it in game or can I practice doing things in the off season to be a better route runner?

KC Joyner

  (4:34 PM)

Get a coaching manual on route running and memorize it. Then go out and do like Raymond Berry and practice the route again and again. Being where you are supposed to be when you are supposed to be there is the key to great route running, but it takes a lot of time and effort to get the routes down.

J (Milwaukee)

How does Jason Peters' metrics look this year? Is he still dominating at run blocking? Pass blocking?

KC Joyner

  (4:35 PM)

His pass blocking is much like it was in 2008, which is to say below average. He's given up far too many sacks for a man of his ability. From what I've seen of his run blocking, he's still doing a good job there, but Philly needs him to step up his blindside blocking.

Karl (California)

KC, how do your metrics handle situations where a "bad decision" is actually a good decision? Example: 4th and say 6, team is going for it. Taking a sack or throwing it away would be a mistake, whereas forcing it into coverage (if nothing else is available) is actually a better option. Big fan of your work - keep it up!

KC Joyner

  (4:36 PM)

Thanks for being a fan! The bad decision metric does take into account game situations and in the situation you mention, the QB would not be credited with a bad decision.

Avi (Boston)

are you going to go see the movie the blind side

KC Joyner

  (4:38 PM)

At some point I'm sure I will, but from what I've seen of the trailers, I don't think it is going to be a close approximation of the book. The book explained the nuances of the situation and the movie looks like it is going to be a formulaic rag to riches story.

Ben Starosta (San Jose, Costa Rica)

KC, Just read your book Blilndsided. However, I'm confused about your section linking the NFL with socialism. Socialism refers to various theories of economic organization advocating public or direct worker ownership and administration of the means of production and allocation of resources. How is the NFL becoming close to this?

KC Joyner

  (4:39 PM)

The pooling of resources is the main economic thrust behind the socialistic tendencies of the NFL, but there is more to it than that. Socialism advocates a group think mentality that all but eliminates competition and the NFL has many aspects that meet that criterion.

Tony (Cincy)

Who is the best route runner in the NFL? Ocho?

KC Joyner

  (4:41 PM)

I'll take Reggie Wayne. He's been a dominant WR at every depth level for years because of that and this season is no different. I would hope that he would get more of the spotlight with Harrison out of the picture but that still doesn't seem to be happening.

TJ (Fort Collins)

Do i start Jay Cutler or Peyton Manning this week?

KC Joyner

  (4:42 PM)

As much as I like Cutler's upside potential, Manning has done a superb job against pretty much anyone on his schedule. He's an elite fantasy player and should be started every week regardless of matchup.

dennis (denver)

Which team is the real Broncos? The 6-0 start or the 0-2, or somewhere in between?

KC Joyner

  (4:43 PM)

In between. Had they lost the Cincy game that they won on a fluke, they would have been a 5-1 club before the 0-2 run and probably wouldn't have generated the hype they did.

Ben Starosta (San Jose, Costa Rica)

It seemed more plausible with some of your arguments to compare the NFL to fascism than socialism. In fact, by not comparing it to fascism, you seemed to be demonizing socialism. We must all remember that the U.S.S.R. was fascism, though it hid behind a guise of communism. And when a government is fascist, it cannot by definition be communist or socialist.

KC Joyner

  (4:45 PM)

You are correct in that there were many words I could have chosen there, but I chose socialism because a) most people have a better idea of what socialism is than communism or fascism and b) the pooled revenue format looks to me to be more socialist than communist.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

KC: It would seem that Manning is a must start every week but what if you own Brees or Rodgers as well? I actually have the Rodgers dilemma in one league and he's outscored or been pretty close to Peyton in just about every week.

KC Joyner

  (4:46 PM)

What kind of league is it where you can get Brees and Peyton? Having Peyton and Rodgers is a good dilemma to have and I might be tempted to say start Rodgers over Peyton in the right situation (say, against the Detroit D).

Ryan (San Diego)

Who's gonna win this weekend the Chargers or the Eagles? And do you think the Chargers will beat out Denver for the AFC West?

KC Joyner

  (4:48 PM)

Give me SD in that one. They have the weapons to take advantage of Philly's coverage weakness and it is a west coast game.

Bruce (Princeton)

Matt Ryan? what happened? Better days ahead?

KC Joyner

  (4:49 PM)

Absolutely better days ahead. I thought before the season that he might see a sophomore slump because teams would figure out what he doesn't do well, and that seems to be happening. Give Ryan the Falcons coaching staff time and they'll get it figured out.

Mike (Blitzburgh)

Does it bother you that Blindsided can be bought on Amazon for 11 cents or do you see it as a positive in increased competition for you?

KC Joyner

  (4:51 PM)

Mike, just about any new book can be bought on Amazon for pennies on the dollar, so I don't look at it as a negative. The more accessible the book is to public, the more people can read it and the more people can get acquainted with my works.

Angry Mike (SF, CA)

C'mon Scientist we can't go 50 minutes without discussing the great Dallas Cowboys. Romo doesn't throw INTs and Austin is the second coming of Jerry Rice. Discuss!

KC Joyner

  (4:53 PM)

Mike, I haven't discussed the Cowboys because there isn't much to say that I haven't already said. They are playing well now but I have every expectation they will still trip up in December. I'd also point out that although Austin did catch the one big pass, he was non-existent for the rest of the game. He's not as good as his recent stretch would suggest and if other teams can take him out, Roy Williams will have to prove he can step into that role.

Jim (Ft Worth)

KC - Who are the players you simply enjoy watching? I know for me it is Peyton's offense and the Titans now that VY is starting and they are feeding Chris Johnson.

KC Joyner

  (4:54 PM)

I always get a kick out of good pass rushers, so Elvis Dumervil would be on my list. Great route running is another, so add Reggie Wayne.

Ben Starosta (San Jose, Costa Rica)

Please, will you tell me how comparing the maltreatment of NFL players to socialism, a theory based on fair treatment of workers, makes sense?

KC Joyner

  (4:57 PM)

Ben, there are a lot of people who believe socialism isn't based on the fair treatment of workers, but rather on the re-distribution of wealth. It was that definition that led to my chapter angle in Blindsided. Well, hate to cut it four minutes short, but my son's flag football team has a playoff game this evening and we've got to run (got to install the defensive gameplan to stop the highest scoring team in the league). Hope to see you all next week!