Jim Callis

  (2:02 PM)

Hello, everyone. As usual, I'm in the midst of editing the Prospect Handbook. Just got done with the Diamondbacks, with the Giants on deck. Fire some questions at me. Bonus points to anyone who has a good suggestion as to what I should get my dad or my 14-year-old son for Christmas. (Doesn't have to be sports-related.)

John (VA)

Thanks for the chat Jim, from your experience covering Dustin Pedroia early in his career, do you think he can adequately handle a switch to SS?

Jim Callis

  (2:03 PM)

I don't, at least not to the level the Red Sox would he want. I think he'd make plays on the balls he got to, but he doesn't have true shortstop range. He'd be a stopgap, not someone you'd want there defensively over a full season.

JAYPERS (IL)

During yesterday's Rockies chat, Tracy Ringolsby made a pretty bold statement when he said Tyler Matzek's development was ahead of Kershaw's "in all areas". I'd like to get a second opinion. Thanks.

Jim Callis

  (2:04 PM)

J.P. is referring to the Rockies chat we had at baseballamerica.com . . . That is bold. Kershaw was just as highly regarded coming out of the draft. Matzek finished strong in the CIF playoffs, but I think Kershaw showed slightly better stuff over the course of his high school senior year.

Chaz (WV)

Jim, how do the Pirates farm system rank against the other teams..After looking over their top 10 prospects , I think they've come along way since Neil Huntington took over. Also, who do you believe they will target in next years draft? Thanks

Jim Callis

  (2:06 PM)

I think the Pirates system has improved under Huntington, but it still has more depth players than true cornerstones. That's not a knock on Huntington's work. He did the right thing by dealing veterans they weren't going to win with, but it's not like he had Cliff Lee to turn into a slew of blue-chip prospects. It's a middle-of-the-pack system to me. Too early to say on next year's draft. Will they go over slot like they did with Pedro Alvarez in 2008 or under slot like they did with Tony Sanchez?

Mike S (CT)

Jim, why would the Blue Jays opt to run with Alex Gonzalez over Marco Scutaro at SS, which seems to be their current course of action? For an offensively-challenged team, wouldn't it help to, say, choose the player that can reach base safely?

Jim Callis

  (2:06 PM)

I wonder if the Blue Jays wanted the two draft picks they'll get for Scutaro, when they're not likely to win in the next couple of years anyway. Then again, the Jays didn't do a good job of signing their early picks last year.

Jim Hendry (Wrigley Field)

Since the Marlins are likely going to force anyone who wants Josh Johnson to also take Uggla, do you think an offer of Cashner, Samardzdjia (sp?), Jay Jackson, Jake Fox and Marshall is fair and would be enough?

Jim Callis

  (2:08 PM)

That wouldn't blow me away if I were the Marlins. Samardzija has a no-trade clause, too, so cross him off. If I'm dealing Josh Johnson, and the Cubs make Starlin Castro off limits (and Brett Jackson can't be traded yet), then Josh Vitters better be in that deal. Sub him in there for Samardzija, and that might be more like it.

Wade (Nashville)

Doesn't seem like ATL values their 1st round picks very much lately after giving one up for Tom Glavine and now Billy Wagner. I might understand that if the pick was protected, but there's still value at #19 even if they won't go over slot.

Jim Callis

  (2:09 PM)

There is, but don't forget they also could recoup four picks if they lose Gonzalez and Soriano. The Braves have a chance to win next year, and if they "trade" Gonzalez for Wagner, they come out ahead with a sandwich pick.

Erin (Chicago)

Jim, Doc not going anywhere after the first pitch, are the Jays going to get something done with the Dodgers and just put all of us out of our misery???

Jim Callis

  (2:11 PM)

This continues to sound more and more like the Johan Santana saga all over again. Though there may be more interest this time from the Red Sox and Yankees, so the Jays may come out OK.

Eric (SF)

Does the declining to offer arbitration to B. Molina pave the way for Buster Posey to start next year? If so do you think the Giants bring in veteran backup?

Jim Callis

  (2:18 PM)

I don't think the Giants are just going to hand the job to Posey. I think they'll ease him in more slowly, and there are some questions about how ready his receiving skills are.

Rory (NYC)

Who has a greater prospect value for the Mets: Havens or Tejada? Havens has more power potential and takes a lot of walks, while Tejada performed more than admirably as a 19 year old in Double A...who should the Mets keep and who should they trade away. I would keep Havens.

Jim Callis

  (2:19 PM)

I like Havens more than most people. I'd take him. I like his bat a lot more than Tejada's and think he'll make a good offensive second baseman.

rayg (burlington, nj)

Jim-thanks for the chat. Can you tell me why a team, the Dodgers, would not offer arbitration to either Hudson or Wolf? Is it McCourt's divorce, or is there some other reason that a sensible fan is not aware of?

Jim Callis

  (2:21 PM)

I guess the Dodgers (like a lot of teams) feared being forced to pay their guys more than they wanted to via arbitration. No one knows how the divorce will play out, but it's not an encouraging sign. I always think the teams are more conservative than they should be, I'd take more risks and try to get more draft picks.

Wes (Milwaukee)

Wily Peralta - is he a legit prospect in your eyes? Also, is his future as a starter or reliever?

Jim Callis

  (2:22 PM)

He is a legit prospect. I see him as more of a reliver in the long run.

Austin (VA)

Will Jesus Montero be a prerequisite to Halladay packing his bags for the Bronx?

Jim Callis

  (2:22 PM)

I don't think he has to be in the deal. But 1) I'd want him if I were the Jays and 2) I'm not sure where he fits in the Yankees' lineup of the future.

Lou (Boulder, CO)

Jim, thanks for the chat today! Does Red Sox prospect Jose Vinicio make their Top 30? Any chance we can get a teaser of the top 5 or top 10 or are they still in progress for the 12/14 release?

Jim Callis

  (2:24 PM)

I'm close to finalizing that list so I can start writing (I write the Red Sox and Cubs Top 30s). The system is pretty deep in young talent, and right now Vinicio is just missing the cut. Won't give you any sneak preview other than to tell you that I'm agonizing over Kelly vs. Westmoreland for the No. 1 spot.

JD (Austin)

Are there pitchers in the Diamondbacks system that you think can effectively fill a 4th and 5th slots? The FA pickings are so slim that it seems they may be better giving some noobs a shot.

Jim Callis

  (2:24 PM)

Bryan Augenstein, maybe, but he doesn't blow me away. Jarrod Parker would have been an attractive candidate before he had Tommy John surgery.

Randy (Camden County)

Would Carlos Santana be a top 10 prospect overall if he were a 1B? How does his bat compare to Smoak's or Montero's?

Jim Callis

  (2:25 PM)

He would not. His bat is good, but not as good as Smoak's or Montero's.

John (Niceville, FL)

Jim, I noticed that Angel Villalona wasn't on the Giants Top10 prospects list this year. Was this due to his regression on the baseball field, or the murder charges in South America?

Jim Callis

  (2:26 PM)

Some of each. The Giants have one of the better systems in the game, and I don't think he would have cracked the Top 10 after his uninspiring year. With the murder charges, it was an easy call. There's a significant chance his career is over.

Greg (LA)

Is it possible that the pendulum is swinging too far, and teams now OVERVALUE their draft picks? A rich team can lose their #1, which is presumably near the end of the round, and recover by picking more overslot players. What is the track record of end of round draft picks? I'm sure it's lower than top of the round picks.

Jim Callis

  (2:27 PM)

Very good point, Greg. A team that's willing to spend can easily compensate for giving up a pick in the back half of the first round. If there were a free agent I really wanted, I wouldn't sweat losing my first-rounder.

Brian (Utah (Evidence Class))

What are your thoughts on Tazawa? Is he worthy bait for trades involving Halladay/Gonzalez instead of Bucholz?

Jim Callis

  (2:30 PM)

Buchholz is a superior talent, and I'd view Tazawa as a step down from him. Not sure if the Red Sox would deal Tazawa though--he took less money to sign with Boston.

Mike (Queens)

The Mets have the #1 pick in the Rule V draft next week. Who are some players the Mets should be looking at who could possibly have an impact for them next year?

Jim Callis

  (2:32 PM)

Not sure who the Mets are zeroing in on, but John Manuel just did a detailed Rule 5 (not Rule V!) preview on our website: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/prospect-bulletin/2010/269212.html. That's a subcriber-only story.

Ian (OK)

As an all around catching prospect (ie, ability to stay at Catcher), how good is Wilson Ramos?

Jim Callis

  (2:32 PM)

Solid but not spectacular. He never gets mentioned with the top catching prospects in the game, but he's a pretty solid all-around guy.

Lee (London)

Jim,As you mention, the Jays did a terrible job with signing their top picks last year. Do you think this year will be different given the changes in the front office (JP and Godfrey out, Alex Anthopolous and Beeston in)? Since the picks they failed to sign last year are rolled over, and considering the extra picks from Scutaro's likely departure, this draft has the chance to be a good start to the renewed rebuilding project, wouldn't you think?

Jim Callis

  (2:34 PM)

Yes. Things have to be different next year, and I think they will be. The Jays are beefing up their scouting department, which would be a waste if they weren't going to spend on the draft. And they need to, because their farm system is thin.

Mike (Iowa)

Jim, how do the White Sox farm system rank against the other teams?

Jim Callis

  (2:35 PM)

I haven't stacked all the systems against each other, but I think the White Sox will fall in the 21-25 range. They're not especially deep, and I'm not as big a Flowers or Hudson fan as some people are. I'd take Jared Mitchell over both of them.

Nando (Santa Rosa, CA)

Jiminator! Please settle a heated discussion: Daniel Nava - late bloomer who could be an MLB ave player, 4th OF at best, career minor leaguer.

Jim Callis

  (2:35 PM)

Great story, probably a fourth outfielder at best.

Joe (Minneapolis)

Are there any recent examples of a team getting burned by offering Arbitration to a player that they did not really want in an effort to get the draft picks? It looks like players always opt out for the multi-year options.

Jim Callis

  (2:36 PM)

The first one that jumps to mind is when Greg Maddux stunned the Braves by accepting, screwing up their proposed budget and necessitating the trade of Kevin Millwood.

Matt (Boston)

Jim, I saw you mentioned questions about Posey's receiving skills. I'm assuming you meant their major league readiness RIGHT NOW. That will be fine in the long term and he'll most likely stick at catcher, correct?

Jim Callis

  (2:36 PM)

Yes.

Mr. SKIA (MrSportsKnowItAll.com)

J-Cal, any way Everth Cabrera enjoys a productive career?

Jim Callis

  (2:38 PM)

Yes. I'd give him some time in Triple-A, but he wasn't scarred by his Rule 5 experience. I didn't think the Padres would be able to keep him for all of 2009, but nice job by them to do so.

Mike (Rutland, VT)

Even though Tony Sanchez was a definite reach with the # 4 pick, did you see anything from him after the draft to think he will be a productive major league catcher?

Jim Callis

  (2:39 PM)

Sure. He's a very good defender who hit better with expected, perhaps because he settled down with wood bats. I'm not sure exactly how high the offensive ceiling is, but it's definitely enough to make him a solid regular. That said, and you guys know I've said this many times, I would have looked for more of a potential star at No. 4.

Randy (Camden County)

Thank you for the answer, and I hope you caught my gift suggestions (posted with a different name). Are you sick of questions about Bumgarner's disappearing velocity? Is this something you see, the dip I mean, from other SP prospects during their early professional years, or is this really a troubling outlier? Thank you.

Jim Callis

  (2:40 PM)

Thanks to everyone for the gift suggestions so far. Keep them coming . . . Wouldn't say I'm sick of those questions, but yes, I think they're overblown. Let's see how he throws next year before we start panicking. It's not like Double-A hitters came close to solving him.

Jeff (NYC)

I don't understand why Montero *has* to have a position --- can't he just DH for the Yankees?

Jim Callis

  (2:41 PM)

You don't often see a young guy begin his career as a DH, and the Yankees have older players (Posada, A-Rod, etc.) who are going to need to play some DH.

James (Chicago)

Brett Wallace or Josh Bell? Wallace seems to get all the hype but Bell has had better power and plate discipline through the minors. Bell seems underrated.

Jim Callis

  (2:42 PM)

I'd still take Wallace, but Bell is somewhat overrated.

Jim Callis

  (2:42 PM)

Let's head to the lightning round . . .

Greg (LA)

What if all of your subscribers got together and bought the LAD's. Would you be interested in the GM job?

Jim Callis

  (2:43 PM)

Sure. But they'd be silly to hire me over Logan White.

Dan (Washington, DC)

Storen or Crow?

Jim Callis

  (2:43 PM)

Crow.

michael (indiana)

should the red sox move pedroia to ss?

Jim Callis

  (2:44 PM)

No. That would be a desperation move.

SteveFitz (Cicero, IL)

Seems a lot of Chicago people have flipped out on the Hanley Ramirez comparison for Starlin Castro and are now ripping into Castro as much as they can to defuse that talk. IMO, it wasn't a fair comparison to make by the person who made it. What would you say to the people who remember the Pie's and Patterson's of the past that are now down on Castro for that comparison to Hanley?

Jim Callis

  (2:45 PM)

I like Castro a lot, but the Hanley comp is hyperbole. Castro needs to develop some more patience, but he's much more refined for his age than Pie and Patterson were.

Mr. SKIA (MrSportsKnowItAll.com)

Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto ... which one has a better chance of putting up a good season for all of 2010? Longterm?

Jim Callis

  (2:45 PM)

Give me Bailey for both. I'm back on the bandwagon.

James (Chicago)

a. cunningham or grant green?

Jim Callis

  (2:45 PM)

Green.

Scott (Philadelphia)

Saints or Colts on a neutral field?

Jim Callis

  (2:46 PM)

Saints. Offensive is more multidimensional and their defense is better. Hard to bet against Peyton Manning with his recent heroics, though.

Mike (Rutland, VT)

Tabata or Milledge?

Jim Callis

  (2:46 PM)

Tabata.

Randy (Camden County)

Posey, Santana, or Montero?

Jim Callis

  (2:48 PM)

Montero has the best bat, but I'll take Posey. I don't think Montero will catch and I think Posey's all-around value as a catcher will make him the most valuable.

Jeremy (Denver)

Could Halladay be a Rockie next year?

Jim Callis

  (2:48 PM)

He could. He's from that area and the Rockies have the talent to put together a deal.

Jason (St Louis)

In regards to spring training locations, Florida or Arizona?

Jim Callis

  (2:48 PM)

Arizona, because Arizona has Pick Up Stix.

James (Chicago)

jared mitchell or trout?

Jim Callis

  (2:48 PM)

Mitchell, but it's a tossup.

James (Chicago)

scheppers or kyle gibson?

Jim Callis

  (2:49 PM)

Gibson.

Harry (Babylon)

Shoppach or Navarro?

Jim Callis

  (2:49 PM)

Shoppach.

Mr. SKIA (MrSportsKnowItAll.com)

Next 10 years: Strasburg or Doc?

Jim Callis

  (2:49 PM)

Ten years? Strasburg.

James (Chicago)

grant green or gordon beckham. is it close?

Jim Callis

  (2:50 PM)

It's not a huge gap, but Beckham has to be considered clearly better at this point, doesn't he?

James (Chicago)

rondon or hellickson?

Jim Callis

  (2:50 PM)

Hellickson.

James (Chicago)

liddi or josh bell?

Jim Callis

  (2:52 PM)

Bell.

Paul (Hotlanta)

What is your projection for Craig Kimbrel?

Jim Callis

  (2:52 PM)

Possible future closer. Great arm.

Harry (Babylon)

Angel Pagan or Marlon Byrd?

Jim Callis

  (2:52 PM)

Byrd.

J.B. (Dunmore, PA)

Candy Canes or Gingerbread?

Jim Callis

  (2:52 PM)

Gingerbread, easily.

James (Chicago)

Phil Hughes or Brett Anderson for the next 10 years?

Jim Callis

  (2:52 PM)

Anderson.

Pat (NY)

Drabek, May, Cosart long term?

Jim Callis

  (2:52 PM)

Drabek.

Randy (Camden County)

Thank you for chatting as always. Keep coming back. Beckham could have played SS defensively?

Jim Callis

  (2:53 PM)

Yeah. Wouldn't be a Gold Glove but could get the job done.

Simbo (NY, NY)

What is the ETA on Pedro Alvarez and can you give a potential stat line for him during one of his prime years?

Jim Callis

  (2:53 PM)

Mid-2010. Could be a .280/35-homer guy. Maybe better.

Josh (Chicago)

Tacos or Burritos?

Jim Callis

  (2:53 PM)

I eat way too many meals at Chipotle, most often burritos.

Mr. SKIA (MrSportsKnowItAll.com)

Josh Thole or Lou Marson?

Jim Callis

  (2:53 PM)

Marson.

Chuck (MPLS)

your opinion: top 5 org talent (no particular order)

Jim Callis

  (2:54 PM)

Was kicking this around with John Manuel the other day. In no order: Rangers, Phillies, Rays, Giants, Indians.

jason (richmond va)

who will be a better big league arm arrietta, erbe, or bergeson?

Jim Callis

  (2:54 PM)

Arrieta.

Gerry (Philly)

Michael Taylor or Domingo Santana?

Jim Callis

  (2:55 PM)

You can dream on Santana, but Taylor has proven so much more and is no slouch. Has to be Taylor.

Andrew (Prague)

Pumped about January's 24? Or haven't thought about it

Jim Callis

  (2:56 PM)

Definitely pumped. Starting to see the occasional commercial on FOX, but doesn't seem like they're promoting it as much as usual.

Newt (Jacksonville)

Andrew Brackman: Jury Still Out or Bust?

Jim Callis

  (2:56 PM)

Jury still out but he needs to take a big step forward in 2010.

ryan (ns)

Gose or Bourjos?

Jim Callis

  (2:57 PM)

Bourjos.

Logan (Philly)

Altherr, Dugan, or James?

Jim Callis

  (2:58 PM)

James.

scooter (chicago)

castro or beckham?

Jim Callis

  (3:01 PM)

G.Beckham.

ryan (ns)

Mike Montgomery or Trevor Reckling?

Jim Callis

  (3:01 PM)

Montgomery.

Brady (Pitt)

Utley top 5 player?

Jim Callis

  (3:01 PM)

Yes.

Mr. SKIA (MrSportsKnowItAll.com)

First to go: Jerry Angelo or Jim Hendry?

Jim Callis

  (3:02 PM)

Should be Angelo, but he has four years left on his contract.

Jim Callis

  (3:02 PM)

Not sure my Chase Utley answer made it, but that was a yes.

Phil (Grand Rapids)

Is Moustakas still a top 50 prospect?

Jim Callis

  (3:02 PM)

Haven't done my list, but don't think he'll make my Top 50.

Paul (Seattle)

Dunigan - legit prospect?

Jim Callis

  (3:03 PM)

Not for me. He has some power, but too much swing and miss for my taste. If he can pound the ball outside of the Cal League, I'll believe in him.

Peter Quinn (Boston)

S. Sizemore or G. Green

Jim Callis

  (3:05 PM)

Green.

Me (Here)

Green or Castro

Jim Callis

  (3:06 PM)

Castro.

Bob (Long Island)

Johan Santana or Roy Halladay?

Jim Callis

  (3:06 PM)

Halladay.

Grant (Minneapolis)

Revere or Hicks?

Jim Callis

  (3:06 PM)

Hicks.

Jim Callis

  (3:07 PM)

OK, it's back to the Handbook for me. Next week's chat will come to you live from the Winter Meetings. Hopefully we'll have a bunch of trades to discuss then.