Joe Lunardi

  (3:04 PM)

I'm here. Let's get right to it.

Jimmy (Las Vegas)

UNLV is 16 4. What are the chances of them making the NCAA tournament??

Joe Lunardi

  (3:06 PM)

It's really 15-4, Jimmy, as as non-DI games aren't counted for Committee purposes. Our tournament odds program puts the Rebels at a 65 percent chance to dance at this point.

Christopher (New York)

Is tomorrow's Rhode Island @ Dayton game pretty close to a must win for Rhode Island?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:07 PM)

Yes. Either that or win at Temple next month.

Alex (Seattle)

Is there any way the Washington Huskies can still receive an at large bid? Or is winning the Pac-10 Tournament the only option?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:07 PM)

Let's win a road game first, Alex, then come back and talk about at-large bids. Washington isn't even close to consideration at this point.

By the Numbers (D.C.)

Joe - How is UK the #1 seed overall? Yes, they're undefeated; But I'm a numbers guy -- and I thought you were too. When you look at the numbers (other than win %), there's just no way UK beats out Kansas or Syracuse for the top spot. Check it out: Inside RPI - Syracuse #1; Kansas #2; Kentucky #7SOS - Syracuse #1; Kansas #14; Kentucky #117Top 50 - Syracuse 4-1; Kansas 5-1; Kentucky 2-0Computer ratings also have Syracuse and Kansas at the top, and Kentucky barely scratching the top 10. What gives?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:09 PM)

Like it or not, the polls have mattered when it comes to the very top seeds. If the season ended today, there's no doubt in my mind the Committee would install Kentucky as No. 1 overall. And it's my job to replicate what they're going to do.

Nate (Bristol, CT)

Joe, what's the rationale behind putting Villanova ahead of Syracuse, either in the polls or in your bracket? Cuse beats all other #1's on RPI, SOS, LunaRPI, they have at least3 more RPI top 100 wins than the others, and they're #3 in ASM. I know Nova is good, real good, but I just can't see why they're ahead of Cuse.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:10 PM)

They are not ahead of Syracuse in my bracket, Nate. 'Cuse is No. 3 on the current S-Curve today and Villanova is No. 4.

Pete Helland (St. Charles, IL)

Joe, how does Purdue get a 4 seed and stay 15 on the S-Curve? That's behind Tennessee and WVU, who they beat, have same records as, and same number of quality wins. They also have better computer numbers, quality wins, and strength of schedule than BYU and MSU. I can't wait to hear your rationale behind 15th overall for a team ranked 10th and 12th and rightfully so in both polls.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:12 PM)

Pete, you forgot to include the recent three-game losing streak for Purdue. Or that their last two victories came over non-tournament teams. When the Boilers earn it again, I'll happily move them back up.

Brian (Denver)

If BYU runs the table in the Mountain West, will they get a #1 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:12 PM)

Doubtful (but it's an interesting questions!).

Alex (PG County)

Where would Maryland fall if they weren't the de facto ACC Champion currently? Every team on the schedule from here until March is a top-100 RPI team, so they should have plenty of opportunities to improve their already decent resume. They are playing as well as any team in the country.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:13 PM)

Right around "First Four Out" and no worse than "Next Four Out." The Terps are close and getting closer.

Erik (Columbia, MO)

Joe, You failed to mention kU vs. Mizzou as a game to watch this week...what gives?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:14 PM)

Doesn't impact the bracket all that much, which is the main criteria.

Tom (Buffalo, NY)

Joe, does 7-9 in conference keep UNC in the tourney?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:15 PM)

That would depend upon the identity of the "7" (but I'd have to say it'd be unlikely for Carolina to make it under that scenario).

Daniel (Ithaca, NY)

What seed does Cornell get if they go undefeated in the IVY League? Also, how does Wake Forest get a 6 seed and Cornell a 10 seed despite Cornell having more points in the ESPN/USA Today poll?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:17 PM)

You know that points in the poll don't mean anything. Wake has beaten Gonzaga, Xavier, Maryland and North Carolina. Cornell is very good, but not at that level for seeding.

Adam (Villanova)

What are the chances that Villanova gets a # 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:18 PM)

Tourney odds program gives Villanova a 25 percent chance of landing on the top line.

Kyle (Seatte)

What's up with Giving the Zags a 5 seed. They are ranked 8 overall in the latest coaches poll.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:19 PM)

The 'Zags only dropped one spot on the S-Curve (No. 16 to No. 17). Their seed is a result of that, not the polls.

George (Baltimore)

Who can challenge Kentucky in the SEC?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:19 PM)

The compliance office (just kidding!).

Stuart (Norfolk, VA)

What are the chances Old Dominion Monarchs will get an at large if they don't win the CAA Tourny?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:20 PM)

Depends on how many (if any) additional losses they suffer between now and then. For instance, it would surprise no one if ODU loses this coming Saturday at Northeastern.

zack (boston)

i know the bracketology is based on today, but looking ahead, how many teams do you see getting in from the big east? ivy? Pac 10 and A-10? and i know conferences have nothing to do with it...blah blagh blah

Joe Lunardi

  (3:22 PM)

Still fun to speculate, Zack. My best guesses: Big East (8), Ivy (1), Pac-10 (2) and A-10 (either 3 or 4, I can't tell yet).

Jake (Austin, TX)

Joe, Arizona has 7 of the last 11 games at home and has been playing much better. The last two games lost were by an average of 2.5 points and in last second plays. If Arizona "hypothetically" finishes with 17-19 wins in the regular season. Picks up 2+ wins in the conference tournament, (and considering the strong SOS and road wins) Do you think bubble? Or no bubble?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:24 PM)

You're asking the wrong guy, Jake. I was wrong on Arizona last year (or the Committee was?!?). Your scenario would certainly get them in the conversation.

Joe (NJ)

Joe, what was your thought process putting Cincinnati in the bracket before Seton Hall? Right now Seton Hall has a better record vs the RPI top 50, a better road record, and a high SOS.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:25 PM)

Actually, Cincinnati is ahead of the Hall in the current Big East standings (despite losing head-to-head) and has a better non-conference schedule.

Jim (Chicago)

Joe, does the Dayon Flyers loss to St. Joe's over the week-end now make it extrmely hard to get an at-large bid?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:26 PM)

The Flyers have plenty of chances to undo that damage, starting tomorrow night vs. Rhode Island.

JPF (Brooklyn)

Hoyas- 3 loses #9 SOS, #6 RPI= # 3 seed in your bracketSpartans- 3 loses, #59 SOS #20 RPI= #2 seed in your bracket

Joe Lunardi

  (3:28 PM)

Like it or not, the Committee would seed a 7-0 Big Ten leader ahead of a third-place Big East team ranked below them in the polls.

nick (bethlehem, PA)

do you think temple can make it to the final four since they have a great defense and they beat nova

Joe Lunardi

  (3:28 PM)

Am a huge Fran Dunphy fan, Nick, but I'm not seeng that....

James (Owensboro, KY)

I realize Milwaukee is closer to Lexington than New Orleans. But UK fans would much rather play in New Orleans than Milwaukee. Shouldn't the comittee send a higher seeded team where it wants to go, over distance requirements.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:29 PM)

I don't think proximity to Bourbon Street is a seeding criterion, James. But I'll pass on your request....

Jonessa (Seattle)

How likely is it that the Zags will get to stay in Spokane in the Dance?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:30 PM)

Very likely, Jonessa, as I think Gonzaga's seed will continue to improve (and this increase their chances of a Spokane landing).

David L. (Arlington, VA)

any chance you'll stop fielding questions that involve the polls?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:31 PM)

Only when people stop asking....

Jay (Buffalo, NY)

With the Pac 10 in awful shape.. where do you see the at large bids going in terms of conferences that normally would go to Pac 10 schools?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:31 PM)

I wrote extensively on this topic today in my "Behind the Bracket" column. Check it out.

Tom (Nova)

In your mind can Nova challenge for a national championsip

Joe Lunardi

  (3:32 PM)

Absolutely.

Dan (Villanova, PA)

why don't my Villanova Wildcats (now ranked number 3 in the nation) get any love on ESPN...one could argue that we should be ranked ahead of kansas seeing as they have lost more recently, and we have won 9 straight, several of which were rather impressive. Scottie Reynolds is by far the most clutch player in America, and easily top 5 overall...I would really appreciate it if your analysts would consider us as National Championship contenders, instead of giving all of the love to kansas, texas, and a more than unproven kentucky team.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:32 PM)

Just when I was starting to like Villanova again....

Fran (Albany)

can Siena get an at-large bid?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:33 PM)

Am starting to like their chances more and more, Fran. The "bubble," at least for now, is flat-out bad. As such, it'd be hard for me to deny a team with what Siena's record is likely to be.

will (cary,nc)

what are the odds today the KY stays on a Top Line of one of the regions?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:34 PM)

No worse than 65 percent, according to our latest odds program.

Idaho Farm Boy (Idaho (Suburb of Spokane))

Gonzaga has the odds on chance of finishing the season 27 - 3. They had a great non-conference run with only one embarrassing loss. Where would the be seeded with this resume?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:35 PM)

Either No. 2 or No. 3 in the West (in Spokane).

Tom Izzo (East Lansing)

My guys are finally coming together after some early season losses. Will we need both the Big Ten regular season and toruney championships to make the top line?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:36 PM)

Hard to say, because other teams are involved in the various contingencies. Let's say both titles should guarantee a No. 1 seed (assuming the Committee is still working that late on Selection Sunday afternoon!).

bryan (ithaca, NY)

who ya got tonight? 'Cuse or g-town? will you be at the game with us?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:38 PM)

I like Georgetown, actually, because the Hoyas are an underrated outside shooting team. I'll be at a different game, though, a Philly Big 5 tilt at the Palestra. It's what I do, after all.

Nugget (The Nova Nation)

Joe, I don't recall you mentioning your odds program in past years - is the program predictive (like Ken Pomeroy) or is it more like your gut feel?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:39 PM)

A little of this and a little of that, like good pasta gravy!

Kyle (Indianapolis)

Do you think that Butler and Northern Iowa would deserve at-large bids if they won their conferences but lost in the conference tourney championship game? Northern Iowa doesn't seem to have that many quality wins, most of the teams they have beaten out of conference are at or near the bottom of their conferences (ECU, BC, Iowa St., Iowa) not to mention a loss to Depaul.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:39 PM)

I would take either or both based on sustained excellence over the course of the season.

josh (edinbrgh)

Why is everyone throwing a fit about uk being overall number 1? isn't rpi pointless right now? plus..19-0 says overall number 1 seed right now to me

Joe Lunardi

  (3:40 PM)

Totally agree, Josh.

Ian (Tallahassee, FL)

I understand having FSU as a #8 seed, but how can GT be two seeds higher after the Noles beat them twice this season?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:41 PM)

Gave that one a lot of thought, Ian. Ultimately, head-to-head has rarely been that big a factor for the Committee. They go much more by overall profile (and should, in my opinion).

Brad Stevens (Indy)

Scared to answer my questions? Just like teams will be scared to play Butler in the tournament...

Joe Lunardi

  (3:43 PM)

Let's not get cocky, Brad. Would Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown or UAB be scared??

Rick (NY)

You have Cuse in Salt Lake Regional I thought couldn't play there because its same day as Regional in Cuse?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:43 PM)

That rule has been off the books for several years, Rick.

Robb (Colorado)

Joe,Is ND being left out a reflection of the low RPI, non-conf SOS, or other? Right now they are tied for 6th in the BE and if they finish there, they have to go, right? Thanks.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:45 PM)

I have Notre Dame 14 spots out of the field at this point. Not insurmountable, to be sure, but not close enough so that any one factor results in their exclusion.

Ryan (New York, NY)

Assuming both teams maintain themselves over the rest of the Big East, is there any chance that the looser of the Nova vs 'Cuse game could still get a number one seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:46 PM)

After the Big East got three No. 1 seeds last year, we no better than to disregard any such possibility.

Frank (Lawrence)

I've already got my tickets to St. Louis. What are the chances that my Jayhawks are gonna be there?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:47 PM)

I'd say 50/50 in terms of regional placement. No way of knowing how difficult their second-round opponent will be.

MM (KC)

Missouri is going to snap Kansas's home winning streak tonight. Thoughts?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:47 PM)

Unlikely given the Tigers' road play to date.

Dan (Chicago, IL)

What sort of consideration does conference vs. conference records get? Michigan beat UConn, Purdue beat WV, Northwestern beat ND, Indiana beat Pitt, etc. WV obviously got a bounceback against OSU on Saturday. The Big Ten also won the ACC challenge. The conference has significantly fewer bids than those two leagues however.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:48 PM)

Barely a factor, if at all, Dan.

Eric (DC)

What odds for two bids from the CAA?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:48 PM)

Decent, Eric. I'd say close to 50 percent.

Ray (ca)

Is St. Mary's in the same situation as last year? Do they need to win the WCC Tournament or beat Gonzaga at least once to get in the NCAA Tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:49 PM)

Yes.

Zach (BOS)

Joe, I'd love to hear you defend Arizona State as an at-large with a 4-3 record in the 8th-best conference, an RPI of 80, a SOS of 110 and one RPI top 50 W against NIT-bound San Diego State. I don't see any way they deserve consideration.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:50 PM)

I agree, Zach. I also have a hard time seeing the Committee passing on a second Pac-10 team, especially if the bubble stays this weak.

Kelvin (NJ)

How much emphasis does the committee put on "quality wins" and "bad losses"? Being in a power conference can give a bubble team multiple chances at a "quality win", while a top mid major team, with a comparable non-conference schedule record and strength, has to avoid a "bad loss" basically every conference game.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:51 PM)

One of the many, many reasons I believe no team with a losing conference record should be eligible for an at-large bid. It's a simple idea to help level an incredibly uneven playing field.

Matt (Walnut Creek, CA)

Hi Joe,I read Pete from St. Charles's post on Purdue. My follow up question- are you saying that hot/losing streaks influence your bracketology? I know that hot streaks are considered for bubble teams, but I didn't think it played a role in the committee's evaluation when seeding "locks". If it does, I don't agree with it. In theory, you could have a team start 30-0, lose its last three games and fall out of a one seed since their losing streak happened to occur at the end of the year. Doesn't make sense. Keeping to the full body of work does, and Purdue has a better resume than several teams you have ahead of them.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:53 PM)

Happens all the time, Matt, mainly because humans are doing the voting. Not saying it's right or wrong, just that it's unavoidable.

Dre (Provo)

how far would a win at the Pit this wednesday go for BYU and proving themselves and the lack of quality wins?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:53 PM)

I don't think BYU has much left to prove.

Brian (LA)

More likely to make the NCAA tourney: UNC or UCLA?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:54 PM)

UNC by far, because UCLA can't match the wins over Ohio State and Michigan State.

Orlando Rodriguez (Austin, Texas)

C-USA? more than 2 bids?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:55 PM)

Very doubtful.

Colin (NY)

Joe, does St. John's have to win the Big East Tournament go do dancing?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:56 PM)

Nope. There are still plenty of chance for St. John's to build a solid at-large resume. I don't think it's likely, but it certainly can happen.

Bill (Dallas)

Big 12 with best chance to win it all?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:56 PM)

Kansas, without a doubt.

Andrew (Nashville)

Any chance vandy takes it to kentucky this week at rupp?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:57 PM)

Can't say until after the game at Knoxville. No way Vandy is winning both.

Steven (Alpine, Utah)

How do you think BYU compares to the some of the top teams from the big 6 conferences?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:58 PM)

After the top 4-6 teams, I'd say the comparisons are very favorable. But first the Cougars need to get over their first-round blues (and a great seed would surely help with that!).

McFeena (Federated States of Micronesia)

You didn't answer my other question so I'll ask a different one: Duke vs. UNC...is the hype dead this season after the two very different directions they're taking this year?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:59 PM)

One can hope. It's a little like Brett Favre; the hype is endless, but you still tune in every time.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:00 PM)

Off to TV gang. Same time next week!