Chat with Joe Lunardi

Welcome to SportsNation! On Monday, ESPN college basketball Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi will drop by to take your questions on this year's tournament projection.
Lunardi is the resident bracketologist for ESPN. In fact, he invented Bracketology and has been projecting the NCAA Tournament field for ESPN.com since its inception. Check out his lastest bracket.
Send your questions now and join Lunardi Monday at 3 p.m. ET!
More Joe Lunardi: Bracketology | Search | Chats
Joe Lunardi (3:04 PM)
Hey, gang. Going to go rapid fire right off the bat. Just learned that my ESPN News hit is 340p ET instead of 410p ET and don't want to lose any time with you.
matt (narragansett,ri)
what are the chances of conference showdowns expanding next year to include something like an A10-mountain west conference showdown, or do you see any other possible conference showdowns, that would especially help nonbcs conferences get more chances at big wins
Joe Lunardi (3:05 PM)
This was discussed. What I heard was that Missouri Valley and Mountain West struck a deal instead. How about A-10/C-USA?
Ron (Baltimore)
Joe, The Maryland Terps had a great week. They won two ACC games and currently sit at 6-2 in the conference. Are they a contender to win the ACC and can you see them making noise in the tournament?
Joe Lunardi (3:06 PM)
Yes and yes, Ron.
Bill (Wisconsin)
What does Marquette have to do to make hte NCAA tournament? Would 10-8 in the Big East be enough? That would put them at 19-11 overall. The record vs the top 100 is not good, but so many close losses shows they can compete with top teams
Joe Lunardi (3:07 PM)
Depends on how the "10" is comprised, of course, but I do like Marquette's chance to eventual slide into the field. I believe they are the best Big East team not in the bracket (and by a fairly good margin).
Christopher Restino (Shippensburg, PA)
Why is a Syracuse team that has a perfect road record in the big east and a 10 game win streak not getting a higher ranking than a kentucky team that lost to South Carolina
Joe Lunardi (3:07 PM)
Promised myself I would not go down this road this week....
Jim (Columbia, MO)
Since they didn't quite make the "Next Four Out," how would you rank the following teams' at-large chances: Mississippi St., South Carolina, Washington, and Northwestern?
Joe Lunardi (3:08 PM)
In the same order you did, Jim.
Jon (USA)
How does Purdue move to a three seed when both michigan state and georgetown lost last week? i realize Purdue didnt play anyone but indiana but still michigan state lost to wisc. and illinois and georgetown lost to usf.
Joe Lunardi (3:09 PM)
Somebody has to be No. 9 on the S-Curve. It happens (and is very likely temporary). Truth is there are five teams this week with a No. 2 seed profile.
Jordan (Las Vegas)
UNLV gets a #7 seed while BYU and New Mexico get a #4 seed? What do the Rebels have to do to get some respect? Is 1 bad loss vs Utah holding them down that much?
Joe Lunardi (3:10 PM)
If anything, BYU and New Mexico are too high (at least if you remember how the Committee treated the Mountain West last year).
Jason (Los Angeles)
Big Badger fan here. Joe, you recently stated in your last bracketology update that the Badger's best days are behind them. Can you please admit you were wrong? It is incredible the coaching job Bo Ryan has done with a team without its best player Jon Leuer. They have not missed a beat. When he comes back, do you think the Badger's are a potential final four team?
Joe Lunardi (3:11 PM)
Not quite ready to go Final Four, Jason, but the Badgers have certainly reconfigured themselves. Just remember they are a different team away from Madison.
Phil (Lexington, KY)
You have Butler matched up with Clemson in the first round. Isn't that a no-no since they already played this year? Or is that not a hard and fast rule?
Joe Lunardi (3:12 PM)
I goofed....too much partying with the Saints!!
Jon (NYC)
Joe, I see you have Cuse in the South, but if the four #1 seeds are as you predict, is there really anyway the NCAA doesn't send them to SLC?
Joe Lunardi (3:12 PM)
By rule, Syracuse would go to the next closest region that is available.
andrew (DC)
how is vt not in, just because they have a bad strength of schedule??? they are 18-41! and have wins at virginia neutral seton hall WITHOUT MALCOLM DELANEY, vs clemson, georgia, miami and at iowa, and have 5 rpi top 100 wins, with bc at 103 not counting. And they have no bad losses, i dont understand how they are not miles ahead of virginia, and behind old dominion, notre dame, cincy, marquette, and uconn!!
Joe Lunardi (3:14 PM)
So what you're saying, Andrew, is that VaTech is 1-2 vs. teams in the current NCAA field with a non-conference schedule that is the second-worst in the country. Am I missing anything?
Matt (Philly)
Why is Duke given Florida as its 10-seed in Jacksonville? I thought protected seeds were "protected" from having a clear geographical disadvantage in its pod (though it might be better than a crowd with 75% UNC fans).
Joe Lunardi (3:15 PM)
Seed "protection" applies only to first-round games. I don't happen to agree with the rule, but there it is.
Justin (Cleveland, OH)
With Cornell now #22 in the nation, and Princeton undefeated in the IVY, if Cornell lost once to Princeton and then again in a tie-breaker playoff, can the Ivy League have 2 NCAA bids?
Joe Lunardi (3:16 PM)
Two losses to Princeton might very well be enough to drop Cornell below the at-large cut off. But, trust me, it's a moot point.
Brett (Spokane)
Joe - if the Zags win out, what kind of seed do you think they would get in the tourney?
Joe Lunardi (3:16 PM)
No. 3 in Spokane.
Mike (Pittsburgh)
I read your Behind the Bracket piece - if you look into your crystal ball - at the end of the year, how many from the Big East do you think make the dance? Who gets left out?
Joe Lunardi (3:18 PM)
Thanks for reading, Mike. I see Louisville, Marquette and maybe Cincy making the eventual field (which would be 7-8 total bids for the Big East).
Tyler (Pearland, Texas)
Do my Longhorns have a chance of getting things back on track and moving up to that number 2 line?
Joe Lunardi (3:18 PM)
Yes....but not without a win tonight.
Blaine (Cambridge, England)
KU looks dominant on paper but some recent performances (e.g., an overtime battle against Colorado) have left some room for doubt. How do you think Kansas compares to previous overall #1 seeds?
Joe Lunardi (3:20 PM)
I think KU and Syracuse are every bit as good as the typical No. 1 seed. Maybe not as good as Carolina last year, but that UNC team was atypical.
Brad (Ohio)
I wouldn't mind seeing Xavier-Memphis, Temple-UAB, Dayton-UTEP type match-ups every year. I say strike up a deal!
Joe Lunardi (3:21 PM)
Personally, I'd rather see the A-10 do home-and-homes with whatever conference Hawaii is in!
billy (wisconsin)
what does it take for wisconsin to play in milwaukee? thanks
Joe Lunardi (3:21 PM)
No worse than a top-two Big Ten finish, and maybe top-one if the Committee uses one Milwaukee slot for Kentucky.
Jim Banks (West By God Virginia )
How far up the ladder seeding wise can Ohio State expect to climb? Can they get to the three seed line?
Joe Lunardi (3:21 PM)
Definitely.
David (Durham, NC)
Joe - with UNC's struggles this season, I've been thinking... Roy is in a group with guys like Calipari and Pitino, who are fantastic recruiters. However, this season seems to be exposing Roy as a coach. I am BY NO MEANS calling him a bad coach, but is it time to distinguish a bit between calling these guys the best coaches in the country vs. the best recruiters? Seems to me that guys like K, Izzo, Boeheim, while obviously still dealing with a great deal of talent, tend to do a bit more with a bit fewer one-and-done caliber players. Your thoughts?
Joe Lunardi (3:22 PM)
I think they're all pretty good coaches, too.
dan (ohio)
what are the chances of cincinnati making it in . this last week didn't help
Joe Lunardi (3:23 PM)
Under 50 percent at this point (but not way under).
Steve (Pullman)
What does WVU need to do to get a #1 seed? Would a win tonight and 2nd place in BE (behind Syracuse) do it?
Joe Lunardi (3:23 PM)
Would certainly be a strong candidate under those circumstances. Could be on the top line as soon as this Friday's bracket with a win tonight.
Dan (College Station)
Joe, this is my 4th time to talk with you about Texas A&M. So far, I'm 0-3, lets try this again. Probably the best week out of anyone on the bubble. RPI - 20 SOS - 13. Are they pretty much a lock? And if they can get wins at home vs. KU and UT, how good of a seed can we get? Donald Sloan...ALL AMERICAN???
Joe Lunardi (3:24 PM)
Those wins would put A&M in the 3-4 seed range, I'd have to think.
J Baca (Albuq NM)
I think San Diego St should get more consideration. Fisher's team is loaded, but maybe underachieves a little, but could be dangerous in torney. MWC get 4?
Joe Lunardi (3:25 PM)
We're all waiting for the Aztecs to get over the hump (especially on the road).
Matt (Chicago)
How much does Saturday night's victory help Illinois chances of earning a bid to the tournament?
Joe Lunardi (3:25 PM)
Huge. Illini would be "out" without it.
Tom D. (Austin, TX)
If Duke wins the ACC regular season and tournament, is there any way they are not a #1 seed?
Joe Lunardi (3:25 PM)
Probably not.
Max (East Lansing)
You honestly think of this years syracuse team as a final four team?! Jim Boheim does not schedule tough non-conference road games and they are yet to play a tough game on the road. Plus I cannot see that zone working against good rebounding teams like KEntucky or my Spartans.
Joe Lunardi (3:26 PM)
We must be watching different teams, Max. I think 'Cuse is really, really good.
Mark (Boston)
I understand you do this by numbers and it's not a preference thing really and it can change, but doesn't it seem like something is wrong when the Big East and ACC have the same amount of teams in the tourney? The leagues aren't even comparable at this point (even though I understand that the first 5 out are all Big East teams).
Joe Lunardi (3:27 PM)
Any more wrong than the CAA having more teams than the Pac-10? That's why this is a "team" thing (and not "league" thing).
Gregg Marshall (Wichita, KS)
What are the chances of Wichita State making it in? The @ UNI loss did not hurt their chances
Joe Lunardi (3:27 PM)
Still a decent shot. Better win the Bracket Buster game.
Phil (Columbia, SC)
How bad of a move would it be to expand the tournament? It seems to me that you'd just be adding in more mediocre teams and would water down the games and definitely not improve what is the greatest thing going in sports today
Joe Lunardi (3:28 PM)
Read my blog from last week. And let's focus on this year!
Zach (VA)
Hey Joe, If VCU wins out the rest of their regular season games including at ODU and makes it to the final of the conference tournament is that enough for a possible at large bid?
Joe Lunardi (3:29 PM)
Would probably need a regular-season title (or co-championship) to be safe.
Brent (Chicago, IL)
What will it take to get two Big 12 teams in Okie City? Last year, as you will recall, only OU got to play in KC, with my Tigers getting shipped to the Edge of the World (OK, Boise) and KU sent to Minneapolis. Now you have KSU ending up in New Orleans as a #3. Seems to me this pod thing doesn't really work for the Big 12
Joe Lunardi (3:29 PM)
Texas being Texas?!?
Nick (SJP)
how about drexel playing well? swept NE, beat vcu. Do you think the dragons have a legitimate shot at winning the caa tounament?
Joe Lunardi (3:30 PM)
No team from the CAA's northern half has ever done so. The odds are against it.
Jeff (Nashville)
Joe, Xavier fan here. How does the committee look at a loss like the one Xavier had against Butler? Do they take it as is or do they factor in the weird ending?
Joe Lunardi (3:30 PM)
Probably not much....
Tony (Louisville)
does the a10 really get 6 teams in?
Joe Lunardi (3:31 PM)
Probably not.
John (Brooklyn)
Over under 1-1/2 Big EAst teams in Final Four?
Joe Lunardi (3:32 PM)
Probably not (to the A-10 question). Taking the "over" on Big East.
Joe Lunardi (3:32 PM)
Got to head over to TV. See you next week! Thanks.
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