Eric Karabell

  (3:00 PM)

Hello all and welcome to another fantasy baseball chat session. Thanks for showing up! Spring training games are under way, which is awesome. Check out our draft kit, everything you need is there. So, let's get this thing going... any questions?

G Money (Carrollton, GA)

If Cole Hamels can find that elusive third pitch (curve ball or cutter) can he sneak into the back end of the top 10 this year? I have read that he is throwing harder now than he was all of last year.

Eric Karabell

  (3:01 PM)

Yeah, I have seen nothing but good things about Hamels from Phillies camp, and let's remember how highly Hamels ranked at this point a season ago. I'm a bit skeptical, but could I see him being a top 10 starter? Sure. Recently I've thought about moving him up my draft ranks, too.

Tim (Santa Clara)

Hey EK!Who would you rather keep? Miggy with a first round pick or Holliday with a third round pick? I don't know if I will get a better player than miggy with my 8th pick in the draft, but I feel that Detroits lineup is going to hurt his stats this year. I am leaning towards Holliday in the third - more value with the pick. What are your thoughts? Thanks

Eric Karabell

  (3:03 PM)

I am not a bit worried about Cabrera's production. In fact, I think he can improve on his 2009 stats. It's not like the Tigers had great on-base guys hitting ahead of him last season. Damon is an upgrade, after all. That all said, Holliday two rounds later is nice value. I'd go there.

Christo (Dallas)

Granted it was predominately against the Pirates, but Homer Bailey looked pretty good the last 6 weeks of 2009. Any chance this once highly touted pitcher has figured it out and will be worth much more than his really low ranking?

Eric Karabell

  (3:04 PM)

I think he started four times against the Bucs down the stretch... look at what that offense was throwing out there. Not good. I wouldn't bother drafting Bailey in 10-team leagues yet.

chris (baltimore)

When do you see dustin ackley and jesus montero in the big leauges?

Eric Karabell

  (3:05 PM)

Not this season. Neither one of them. I think Montero, in theory, is closer because the Yankees could have a need behind the plate, maybe at DH. Ackley isn't ready yet.

Josh (Silver Spring, MD)

why are fantasy baseball chats starting so late this year? they used to start at 11!

Eric Karabell

  (3:05 PM)

I've been chatting at this time for more than a year... every Wed at 3.

Chuck (NJ)

Ian Stewart: over/under .250ba and 25hr?

Eric Karabell

  (3:06 PM)

I will say under on both. The Mora signing might seem like no big deal, but it means the Rockies have an option in case Stewart needs a Chris Davis-like trip to the minors. Not saying he will, though. If he stays up and bats 500 times, I could see right around .250 and 25 actually.

Chuck (NJ)

Better 3rd protect: young hitter at weak position - Ian Stewart, or young pitcher - Rick Pocello. My other protects are T. Hanson and W. Rodriquez. Thanks.

Eric Karabell

  (3:07 PM)

Well, I don't think anyone should keep three pitchers... In a vaccuum I would say Stewart, and in this case as well, though I do like Porcello quite a bit.

Andrew (San Diego)

EK, in a long term keeper league looking to compete this season. Need to keep Tommy Hanson or Johan Santana. Which way would you go? Thanks!

Eric Karabell

  (3:08 PM)

I would keep Hanson in a long-term keeper... I just had a shot at Santana in round 4 of an NL-only and passed. Would rather have Hanson a round later.

Tim (Ohio)

If Heyward has a job at the start of the season is he a must have?

Eric Karabell

  (3:09 PM)

I wouldn't say must have. He'll probably end up a bit overrated in drafts. A rookie who hits 20 home runs is very, very good. If Heyward gets drafted as if those people expect more than that, then that's a problem.

Doc (NE)

Keeper question. Who should I be more excited about drafting -- Brandon Webb or Brett Anderson? What is Anderson's eventual ceiling?

Eric Karabell

  (3:10 PM)

Everyone seems to love Anderson, and I agree. In a keeper league, I'd go with him. Even in a one-year league I might.

Rich (SB)

Reyes or Jeter for 2010?

Eric Karabell

  (3:11 PM)

Well, everyone I've talked to seems to be skeptical about Reyes staying healthy, so I have to say Jeter. I rank them similarly, but when push comes to shove, I would take Jeter. Safer.

Tony (Twin Cities,MN)

What combo would you rather have for the foreseeable future? Strasburg/Heward, Price/Wieters or Lincecum/Braun...Thanks EK!

Eric Karabell

  (3:12 PM)

I would take Lincecum/Braun, personally, even in a keeper league. I mean, those guys are first-rounders, and they come pretty much guaranteed. I rank the rookies third. Way overrated this season.

Brad (Philly)

Pick your favorite late-round 3B: Beltre, Gordon or Chris Davis.

Eric Karabell

  (3:13 PM)

I like Beltre, if you can get him that late. I see a 20-80 season from him. Davis can top that, but at what cost to batting average?

MC hey (NY)

Ek, has Torre confirmed where Kemp will be batting this year? If he's still batting 7th, I'll pass.

Eric Karabell

  (3:14 PM)

No, I haven't seen confirmation of anything with the Dodgers lineup, but no matter where Kemp bats, he's going to be good. Don't get too concerned about it.

Bart (Ohio)

Last years draft I got Michael Bourn in the last round who would be a player this year that could be a huge boost to a team? Kyle Blanks mabey?

Eric Karabell

  (3:15 PM)

Sure. There are plenty of basestealers going very late or not at all, like Juan Pierre. In fact, Bourn really isn't any better than those Podsednik-Borbon types, but he is going considerably earlier in drafts, which makes little sense to me. I like Blanks for 25 homers. Same with Jake Fox.

Mike (Chicago)

Hey Eric, as a Phillies fanatic, what are your thoughts on drafting Lidge in the later rounds as a closer? I need to bolster my potential save totals.

Eric Karabell

  (3:16 PM)

He scares me for sure, but at some point anyone with a legit chance at 30-plus saves has to get drafted. Early reports from Clearwater on Lidge are actually pretty promising.

Frank (Stamford CT)

Eric please tell my partner in my big $$ 12 teamer roto league that Oliver Perez isn't worth a pick until after the 15th round. He's a homer and is trying to tell me we should draft him as early as the 9th or 10th!

Eric Karabell

  (3:19 PM)

How about this: Don't draft him at all. I mean, 15th round... there are much better risks out there. In our NL only mock draft Perez was the last pick of the draft, maybe a joke more than anything else.

John (NYC)

I got stuck with V. Wells and can't stomach him for another year - will you yell at me for dropping him for Francoeur, Stubbs, Maybin or Mags?

Eric Karabell

  (3:22 PM)

Wells isn't that bad. Owning him just feels sad because it's kind of wasted potential, that's all. But it's not like he hurts you. There is some power, maybe he'll run some. I'd probably go Maybin, but I know a lot of people don't see him doing much.

Bob (NYC)

What do you expect out of Chipper, first half of 2009 or second half of 2009?

Eric Karabell

  (3:24 PM)

I think the main issue with Chipper is that he can't stay healthy. He couldn't have been healthy the second half of last season, because then he would have hit. Overall, I expect him to hit around .280 with 20 homers. The guy can hit. I just don't think he can hit through the pain.

Mike (Toronto)

Any truth to the rumour that Pedroia bats 5th this year? How would it effect his numbers?

Eric Karabell

  (3:26 PM)

Hadn't heard that one, and would be really surprised if it happened. If it does, then he'd knock in more runs, maybe try to hit for more power, and would score less. But I really doubt this happens.

Bill (DC)

Howdy, EK. I usually go with solely hitters for the first 8-10 rounds. This year, though, it looks like most of the hitters outside the first round are pretty similar; if you miss out on a bat in any given round, there's someone interchangeable three rounds later. I keep finding myself going for stud pitchers as a better value. Am I the only one seeing it this way this year? Thanks. Love and appreciate your work.

Eric Karabell

  (3:30 PM)

I see your point, but still the point is that you can always wait on pitching. So I've still been taking the hitters, even if a lot of them look the same. They are safer.

Anthony (Cali)

what do you expect from Ian Kinsler? I'm thinking of taking him 13th overall in a 12 team h2h since 2B seems a bit shallow to me.

Eric Karabell

  (3:31 PM)

Second base is extremely shallow. Really, so is SS and 3B. In our AL-only mock the other day I took Jeter and then realized there were no other SS I wanted! As for Kinsler, I think 13th is a bit high to grab him, but I do think he'll put up numbers and raise that batting average.

Mike (New Jersey)

Which Upton do you expect more out of, BJ or Justin?

Eric Karabell

  (3:32 PM)

Definitely Justin, because he's a potential 35-20 guy, and those fellows are tough to find. I want to believe BJ Upton can hit 20 homers, but until he does it again, or gets close, we have to be skeptical.

jay (new york)

Need Keeper Help!!! Strasburg or Bumgarner? They both have the same draft value...

Eric Karabell

  (3:33 PM)

Well, one of them has a chance to make the team out of the spring. Then again, Strasburg has the far greater upside. Me? I don't think either are worth drafting in a standard 10-team league. In a keeper, go Strasburg.

Justin (The Beach)

EK, is the Adrian Gonzalez / Petco Park thing really all it's billed to be or are the decreased numbers merely another case of baseball (bad) luck? Also, do you think that a trade would positively impact his performance or would it be leveled out due to an adjustment period? Thanks!

Eric Karabell

  (3:35 PM)

The guy hit 40 home runs, so no, I don't think the Petco Park thing is quite what people make it out to be. I really doubt the Red Sox will trade for him, with Youk and Beltre at the corners, and Papi and Lowell to DH.

Dale (Jersey City)

What are your thoughts on Shin Soo Choo? I love what I see but was last year his ceiling? Thanks EK.

Eric Karabell

  (3:36 PM)

He can get better. Just be a bit wary in keeper leagues, because he might have to serve military time back in Korea... though I really doubt that will happen. I could see Choo hitting more home runs...

Bart (Indiana)

Quentin/Hamilton/Dunn

Eric Karabell

  (3:37 PM)

OK, I get it, Jeopardy, right? OK, "Who are two outfielders who cannot stay healthy, and one guy who always hits 38-40 home runs and gets underrated all the time?" You want Dunn. He plays, and always hits. You can deal with the batting average.

Thomas (Minneapolis)

I don't trust Wright based on last seasons BABIP and playing in Citi Field. Do you agree? If so, besides Longo and maybe ARod, are there any "safe" 3rd basemen to draft this year?

Eric Karabell

  (3:38 PM)

I would say yes, Wright's batting average was a bit spiked and should, in theory, revert back to the mean some... but the power is coming back. I think so. I have Wright ranked better than Longoria. After that, I think Sandoval, Youkilis and M.Young are pretty safe. And Reynolds, drop the batting average some but the power and speed are legit.

Andy (Syracuse, NY)

What are your thoughts on Branden Wood? He's apparently going to be a starter finally, big sleeper?

Eric Karabell

  (3:39 PM)

I used to think so, but the Angels seem like they'd love to replace Wood with someone, maybe Maicier Izturis, so I know longer consider Wood a sleeper. I think the Angels will bench him the first time he struggles.

Martin (FL)

What's the difference between Justin Upton and Nelson Cruz?

Eric Karabell

  (3:40 PM)

Upside. Batting average. Youth. Cruz is fine, but that might be the best he gets.

Rhys (Saint Louis)

Is it just me or is Alcides Escobar the same player as Elvis Andrus with just a year less experience that you can get much later in drafts? Why all the Andrus hype when all he'll do is steal bases?

Eric Karabell

  (3:41 PM)

Similar, but most people think Andrus will develop power soon, and is a more gifted hitting prospect overall. Escobar could be a 30 steal guy... I think Andrus could steal 50 really soon. He's got that type of speed, now he needs to take a walk, bunt some, get on base.

George (Fairfax, VA)

In what round do you start taking roster needs into account?

Eric Karabell

  (3:41 PM)

I start looking at what I've got after round 10... but still, doesn't mean I would definitely take an outfielder if I only had one. Depends.

Ryan (Climax, VA)

if in the first seven rounds you went 2nd,3rd, SS, OF, SP, OF, 1B...what do you draft next.?

Eric Karabell

  (3:42 PM)

Impossible to answer.. and no matter what I write it's not right. Every draft is different. Depends who is left..depends who I had taken earlier. Maybe I go closer, if there is a small tier of save guys left. Don't ever go into a draft saying "I need 3 outfielders and 3 pitchers by round 10..." Each draft is different.

Chris (Saratoga, NY)

Better bet for saves this year - Gregg or Lindstrom?

Eric Karabell

  (3:44 PM)

I actually think Kevin Gregg wins the Toronto job and saves 25 games... and he's barely getting drafted in normal leagues. It might be ugly. The guy does allow home runs, and the Yankees, Red Sox, they hit them. But saves are saves. Most people would pick Lindstrom here. He has a shot, too, but I think Brandon Lyon is their guy.

JJ (Boston)

EK, What do you think of Mike Lowell as a late round pick, I think he is a good risk, no matter who he is playing for.

Eric Karabell

  (3:44 PM)

The thing with Lowell is I could see him hitting 15 home runs in 300 at-bats... Boston probably won't use him a ton early on, and there is no guarantee he gets traded.

Tom (NY)

Do you think Leo Nunez will keep his job?

Eric Karabell

  (3:45 PM)

I think he'll remain a major league pitcher for the Marlins... his closer job? No. Too many home runs, and the Marlins have had seven closers in eight seasons.. they always change things up.

Brad (Jackson, MS)

Andrew McCutchen or Carloz Gonzalez - Who do you like more?

Eric Karabell

  (3:46 PM)

McCutchen. I like players who have power and steal bases, and I'm not entirely sure that Gonzalez will do either consistently.

Brian (NYC)

You forgot Zimmerman when naming safe 3b

Eric Karabell

  (3:46 PM)

Yes, for some unknown reason I did. I also think Aramis will always hit when he's out there, and really, I trust Beckham quite a bit.

Dave (NYC)

Standard league - Porcello or Sheets?

Eric Karabell

  (3:47 PM)

Sheets has more immediate upside for ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. Me? I'm not taking Ben Sheets in anywhere near the range I'd have to in order to get him. I'll take Porcello.

Kyle (PDX)

Last roster spot who do you take... C. Guzman, I. Desmond or J. Fox?

Eric Karabell

  (3:48 PM)

Read my blogs! I've been touting Fox for about nine months now...

Eric (Fort Collins)

Do you expect Berkman to bounce back and wouldnt it make more sense to take him in the 6th as my 1b rather than the likes of VMart in the 4th?

Eric Karabell

  (3:50 PM)

I expect Berkman to be a terrific value this season, and yes, if you're using Victor Martinez at first base (which you shouldn't), then Berkman two rounds better is ... well, better.

Raymond (Lansing)

Yo Karabell. Whats up? How's it going? long time no see. quick question, quick question: who do you like better, adam jones or nelson cruz for this season? does it scare you that cruz is batting 7th?

Eric Karabell

  (3:51 PM)

Nope. Doesn't scare me one bit. Who cares as long as he continues to knock in runs and steal bases? He will.

Reid Nichols (CVS)

Top 20 ADP player you feel is most likely to disappoint?

Eric Karabell

  (3:51 PM)

Sorry, but Mauer.. maybe Crawford. And Ellsbury. So much speed out there, why draft a single-digit power guy in round 2?

Jim (Seattle)

Thank you for recognizing Dunn, he's got some serious value. Are any of these guys more valuable than Adam? Butler, Lee, Sandoval, Votto?

Eric Karabell

  (3:52 PM)

I would take Sandoval and Votto over Dunn, and ... probably Lee (Derrek?) as well. Butler, no.

tigger (mysterious forest)

ek! Keeper league...haren or kershaw?

Eric Karabell

  (3:52 PM)

I will not be the one drafting Kershaw this season... anywhere. People like him way too much. I'll take Haren, and note that even when he "slips" up in the second half, it's not like he's awful.

Steve (PA)

would you take Crawford or Justin Upton in an OPS league?

Eric Karabell

  (3:53 PM)

Upton. I might take Upton in a normal league. Power, power, power...

ike (dc)

Werth or Sizemore? What;s the difference here? Age?

Eric Karabell

  (3:54 PM)

I think there remains some skepticism that Werth will run as much as he did... and people worry about Sizemore's batting average. Me? I take Sizemore a few rounds earlier. Safer. Runs more. If he hits .275, and goes 30/30...wow.

Bart (Ohio)

EK, With Soto dropping 40lbs this offseason do you think that he will get back to the type of numbers he put up in 2008?

Eric Karabell

  (3:54 PM)

I think he can go 20-80, yes. I think he will.

mike d (ny)

EK my man!! Do you think it's a reach to grab Derrek Lee in the 7th round (around 80th overall)? All the best 1B are being kept, and I may get stuck with Cuddyer or Chris Davis.

Eric Karabell

  (3:55 PM)

That round sounds about right... not a bad player at all, even without the speed.

Andy (Syracuse, NY)

Scott Sizemore appears to have the inside track to win the 2nd base job in detroit, what numbers do you expect from him?

Eric Karabell

  (3:55 PM)

Yeah, he just needs to hit this spring to make it official. I mean, Raburn could steal the job. I could see Sizemore going 15-60-10 or so... that's maybe a low projection based on minor league stats.

Bart (Indiana)

Thanks EK appreciate the time and insight

Eric Karabell

  (3:56 PM)

Hey, thank you guys... without you, we don't have chats, don't write articles, do rankings, any of it...

Alex (Ann Arbor)

Cahill worth a $9 keeper in a AL only with a $260 cap?

Eric Karabell

  (3:56 PM)

Seems a bit high to me. Maybe if he was a strikeout guy, but he's probably not.

Clayton Kershaw (LA)

You won't take me anywhere? Or you won't take me where you think I will go in most drafts? I hope the latter, because I do have value, right?

Eric Karabell

  (3:57 PM)

Let me rephrase: I'd take just about any player in the right spot. But for where people seem to be taking Kershaw, I'm not close to ready to go there. Hey, he could fan 200 hitters... gimme a safer guy who can throw 6 innings consistently. I don't always choose the upside guy.

Blake (Phx, AZ)

Jason Bartlett at $6, Adrian Gonzalez at $23, or Longoria at $32. Keep one!!!

Eric Karabell

  (3:58 PM)

Depends what else you have... I mean, Gonzo and Longo aren't bad prices...but Barlett is a very good price. If I could re-draft those other guys, or players of that ilk, I throw them back.

Butch (PA)

With Mora in Colorado how many at bats can we expect from Stewart?

Eric Karabell

  (3:59 PM)

I think the Rockies expect Stewart to play everyday. Remains to be seen if he can hit enough. It's probably more likely Barmes won't hit at second base.

Eric Karabell

  (3:59 PM)

OK, I believe our time is up for today. Thank you for showing up in the chat session and asking questions. Have a great day, enjoy spring training, see you back here next week... Adios.