Joe Lunardi

  (3:04 PM)

Anybody want to talk a little hoops? I'm ready....

Kyle (Indianapolis, In)

Joe - a lot of people are discounting Butler's win against Ohio State this year due to the fact that it was sans-Evan Turner. However, people forget that the same Butler team took the same OSU team to the last shot in Columbus last year. Why is it impossible to think that the Dawgs could have still pulled out a win in Hinkle this year, even if Turner was healthy?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:07 PM)

No one is discounting it, Kyle, it just has to be weighed a little differently. And last year's game is irrelevant to this season's evaluations.

Ken (CA)

Joe, as a longtime Gator having seen the good and the bad, it seems to me that it would be much more interesting to watch them go to the NIT and make a run at the title rather than a likely one and done appearance in the NCAA. Rather than hoping we get in, I am almost preferring we don't so get to see more. Your thoughts?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:08 PM)

I can't imagine you are in the majority of Gator fans, Ken.

Ben (Manchester, NH)

In the past some talented Duke teams have fizzled early in March Madness. If Duke gets a #1 seed this year, how far do you expect them to go?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:09 PM)

It's impossible to say without knowing the round-by-round matchups.

Bob (Kansas City)

How far will Kansas State need to go in the Big 12 tournament to lock atleast a number 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:10 PM)

Depends on what other teams do to a certain extent, Bob, but reaching the championship game would almost certainly be enough.

Isaac (San Juan Islands, WA)

Joe, I know the PAC-10 has had quite a rebuilding year where many teams have struggled, but why have Washington and Arizona State risen so suddenly in the bubble watch? Have they been improving significantly or have the other bubble candidates been sliding?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:10 PM)

It's the latter, Isaac.

Matt (Philadelphia)

A lot of experts think that Ohio State has the best shot this side of Durham to collect the final 1-seed if they win the Big Ten tournament. Isn't there a good chance though that they could get screwed by the schedule. The Big Ten final doesn't start until 3:30 on Sunday and the ACC championship is at at 1:00 on Sunday. I know that the brackets take a long time to put together and the top seeds are placed first. If Duke lost in the Final and Ohio State won, is it possible that their fates would already be set before those games finish?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:12 PM)

It has happened this way in the past, Matt. More recently, however, the Committee has built multiple brackets accounting for the various Sunday scenarios. I would be disappointed in this group if they bailed on the process and didn't finish the job (and I do not expect they will).

Anthony (Raleigh, NC)

Joe,Do you see Villanova ending up as a #2 seed in East Region if they can get to the title game of the Big East tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:13 PM)

That would certainly do it, Anthony.

Mark (TX)

Do you actually know anything about the Big XII other than the Kansas teams? I know the national media doesn't. Baylor a 5 (too low)? A&M a 6 (too low)? Texas a 7 (too high)? You must just be looking at human polls to help you decide Big XII seeds and nothing else. Good thing you aren't actually on the committee...

Joe Lunardi

  (3:14 PM)

Actually, Mark, the human polls do have some historical correlation to seeding on the first few lines. We don't have to like it, but it can't be ignored.

Bob (Philadelphia)

VFery surprised you moved Nova to the 3 line and have Pitt ahead of them on the S curve. Doesn't the committee look at the whole body of work, which is still impressive for Nova?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:15 PM)

It's impressive for both, wouldn't you say. And Pitt owns the only victory between the two as well as the higher Big East seed because of it.

Eric (Birmingham)

Does UAB have to win the C-USA tourny to be in?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:16 PM)

More than likely, Eric.

Danny (Portland)

Yo, Joe. Pending tonight's result in Vegas between St. Mary's and the Zags, what will be highest or lowest seeds the Zags could earn? Also- if St. Mary's is competitive but doesn't win are they close?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:17 PM)

Gonzaga will fall somewhere in the 4-6 range, I believe. And Saint Mary's is in for a very long wait (again) if they lose. They can start by looking like an NCAA tournament team, unlike last year's WCC final.

Stan (San Diego, CA)

Any insight on SDSU's chances to make the torney?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:18 PM)

I think the Aztecs will lose to New Mexico on Friday and just miss again. Sorry.

Jimmy (New Jersey)

If UNLV loses to Utah for the third time this season, will they still be a "lock" for the NCAA tournament??

Joe Lunardi

  (3:19 PM)

Fair point, Jimmy. I think they're in either way, and I think UNLV also wins this time.

David (CT)

Joe, here's the question that has captivated the country. If Uconn wins 3 are they back in?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:20 PM)

Well, David, it may have captivated one state. I think the rest of the country was tired of seeing UConn in my brackets. Three wins gets them back in the conversation. The rest is no knowable at this point.

Brian (Rochester, NY)

Joe,If Cuse loses their first game in the BET, can anyone pass them on the S-Curve (Duke, Ohio St....) so they don't play in Buffalo (South Region)? Thanks

Joe Lunardi

  (3:21 PM)

Syracuse will be in Buffalo regardless of region due to the pod system.

Christian Vester (Lafayette, IN)

If Purdue wins the Big Ten Tournament without Robbie Hummel, will it prove to the critics that they deserve a #1 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:21 PM)

It will prove they deserve every consideration.

Collin Wohlfert (Ashburn,VA)

Even with the loss to Northern Iowa do you think WSU will make it in?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:22 PM)

Nope, sorry.

Mark (Ohio)

Joe, In order for a fourth A10 team to dance, I think that either Dayton has to win the conference tourney, or either URI or St. Louis has to reach the finals. Your thoughts?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:23 PM)

I'll buy that, Mark, although there are scenarios for Dayton also to make it by reaching the finals. I think SLU needs the auto bid most.

Jimmy (Everett, WA)

Arizona St. and Washington will more than likely meet in the semi finals of the Pac-10 tournament. Assuming all other conferences hold serve, does the winner of this game make the dance even if they lose to Cal in the finals?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:23 PM)

The winner stays in the hunt. Call it a "play out" game more than a "play in" game. And thanks to Doug Gottlieb for hitting me with that terminology.

Mark (Pennsylvania)

What does Kentucky have to do to get the St. Louis region? Do they have to be the overall #1 ?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:24 PM)

Yes.

Eric (brewerscubs.com)

Is it as simple as beat Wisconsin and in, lose and out, for Illinois?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:24 PM)

Yes.

Chris (Chicago)

It's about time they use the ken pomeroy rankings scale in the committee room. I'm glad that it is finally at least on the tools section of what the committee looks at. It is a much better correlation for final 4 teams than any other ranking scale. What are your thoughts on this?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:29 PM)

I look at KenPom all the time, as do some (but not all) committee members. I also look at my own Adjusted Scoring Margin data a great deal. All have value, as do RPI-related data points.

Rob (Denver, CO)

Joe, why does Bubble Watch have VT as a "lock" but your update has them as "on the bubble"? Please reconcile.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:30 PM)

Different authors. Different opinions.

Warren (East Lansing, MI)

Probably a dumb question, but are your selections predicated upon anticipated results or do you think this is what the seeding would look like if we just stopped the season and started the big dance right now?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:30 PM)

Always the latter, Warren.

Joe (South Carolina)

Any chance Wofford sees higher than a 14 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:31 PM)

Outside shot at No. 13, Joe.

Tom (South Orange, NJ)

If Seton Hall beats Providence 1st round and beats Notre Dame (for a second time this year) in the 2nd round of the Big East tournament, do you like their chances at getting an at-large bid?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:31 PM)

I think that would put the Hall right in the mix. No guarantees, of course, pending all kinds of results elsewhere.

Brian (Odessa, TX)

A 5 seed for Baylor seems too low given their resume and quality wins. What am i over-looking?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:32 PM)

The 16-20 teams with equal or greater accomplishments.

Mike (Kentucky)

If Kentucky gets upset by say...Auburn in the SEC tournament. Would they still get a #1 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:32 PM)

Yes.

Austin Gray (Nashville, TN)

We've often heard that this is a particularly weak bubble. Rather than win their way in, it seems to come down to which teams avoid the worst losses. None of the bubble teams are particularly impressive. Why, then, the chatter about tournament expansion?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:33 PM)

$$$$$

MJA (Logan)

Utah State's overall resume is better than UNLV's and UTEP's, and similar to Northern Iowa's...yet somehow all those teams are locks and you continue to ignore Utah State. If for some reason they don't win the tourney in Reno, they should absolutely still be in...right?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:35 PM)

I agree with all but the "absolutely" part.

Tim (DC)

Since your last bracketology all Georgetown has done is beat Cincinnati by 27. Why did they drop to a 6-seed from a 5 today?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:35 PM)

Other teams passed them. Happens all the time.

Jonathan (New Brunswick)

Joey B, you are a legend but you have undervalued the Terps all year. If they win 3 more this weekend, is a 3 seed in the realm of possibility? Thank you

Joe Lunardi

  (3:36 PM)

I could see that, yes.

Cosmo (Anytown, USA)

Settle a bet for me, Joe. Better conference - Big East or ACC?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:36 PM)

This year, Big East. Historically, ACC.

Daniel (Memphis)

If Tennessee were to win the SEC tournament, could you see them rising up to a 2 seed, or is the maximum they could reach a 3?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:37 PM)

The Vols could be a No. 2 (outside chance).

mark (virginia)

joe - VT plays the winner of Wake/Miami.....having beaten Wake once, as long as Miami doesn't win the 5/12 and then beat the Hokies, would you say VT is in?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:38 PM)

Exactly, Mark. Avoiding "bad losses" is the key at this point for those teams already in the field.

Mike (Albuquerque)

How, after winning, did New Mexico fall from the 2 seed? The Lobos rank in the top 8 in both polls; how don't they have that last 2 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:38 PM)

I have them ninth overall, Mike, it happens.

Derek (Ny)

If Syracuse loses on Thurs to either sf or gtown will that matter? Are they already locked into a # 1 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:39 PM)

No and yes, Derek. Only question is region (South or West).

Travis (Iowa)

I think its garbage that teams with 13-14 losses are still under consideration during this 'down' year. The mid -majors should be rewarded with a few extra bids instead of major teams with that many losses. You can throw your SOS and RPI crap out the window. It comes down to winning and losing

Joe Lunardi

  (3:40 PM)

Don't shoot the messenger, Travis. I've been making your argument for more than a decade. My job, though, is to forecast what the Committee will do.

Josh S (Pittsburgh, PA)

Why is anyone even talking about Ohio State on the top line? Duke, Villanova, WV, and Purdue are ALL more deserving. Sagarin has OSU as #12!

Joe Lunardi

  (3:40 PM)

I respectfully disagree. You can make good arguments for and against every team on your list.

Robert C (Idaho)

Props to you Joe,You have probably the best job in the whole world. ESPN pays you to watch basketball games and have an opinion. I am envious. I love the way everybody thinks they know so much more than the professionals.Q: Whats the difference between a bracketologist and a proctologist?A: Proctologists get more respect!

Joe Lunardi

  (3:41 PM)

But I don't to watch anyone bend over....

Peter (Atlanta, GA)

Does William & Mary still have a shot at an at-large bid if they lose a close game to Old Dominion based on their overall body of work, beating two ACC tourney teams on the road, a big A10 victory and a decent conference resume?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:41 PM)

They do not, Peter, due to too many in-conference losses.

Robbie (Wenatchee, WA)

FYI: I averaged together the Sagarin, Pomeroy, and CBS RPI rankings on Sunday afternoon, and Baylor ended up as a projected #2 seed.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:42 PM)

Good for you, Robbie. Unfortunately, said averages are not a factor for the Committee.

Chris (Michigan)

Joe, love your work. Quick question. How come every single year experts say that the bubble is weak this year? I have kept track and for 5 straight years the experts have said that the bubble is ?weak?. Isn?t that what defines the bubble? If a team is strong, aren?t they no longer a bubble team? I don?t see how every single year the bubble can be weak. Keep up the good work Joe!

Joe Lunardi

  (3:44 PM)

Fair point, Chris. And, while I can't speak for others, when I say "weak bubble" what I mean is that the last few teams to miss are truly undeserving. This isn't always the case.

Ben (Seattle)

U mean to tell me that a Washington team with six straight victories away from Hec Ed, 11 victories in the last 13 games, 23 victories overall and an appearance in the Pac-10 championship game (win or lose) hasn't "played themselves in" to the tourney?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:46 PM)

It's four straight road wins, Ben, and I'm not sure any were over a team with a winning record.

Nathan Larsen (Blue Earth, MN)

Can UNI go deep in the tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:46 PM)

The Panthers can definitely win one game, maybe two with a little luck of the draw.

Stephen (Indiana)

Hey Joe can you say something on your next bracket show that indicates that you really are the one answering our questions and not just someone else at ESPN.com who is sitting in a chair and gets paid to do it??

Joe Lunardi

  (3:47 PM)

How about you just believe me?!?

Steve (Seattle, WA)

If the Tourney expands to 96 teams - will there enough time in a year for you to do what you do?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:48 PM)

I'm trying not to think about it, Steve!

Zac (Morgantown)

West Virginia has as many wins and one less loss than OSU. Plus we beat them in January WITH Evan Turner and our SOS and RPI are higher. I feel that slots the Mountaineers ahead of the Buckeyes. Do you agree Joe?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:49 PM)

It slots them ahead of the Buckeyes right now (No. 6 vs. No. 7 on the S-Curve). Let's see what the week brings.

Scott (Tampa)

USF has a 500 record in the Big East and a couple of high profile wins (Pitt, Georgetown, UCONN). How many games do they need to win in NYC to earn an at large bid?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:49 PM)

At least three, Scott.

Handsome Ben (New Orleans)

Joe, no love for Ole Miss? I know they only have 2 real quality wins, but the K State win on a neutral court is huge. I have to think 1 win in the SEC Tourney and they're in, right?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:50 PM)

More than one, Ben. It's a pretty unspectacular resume for Ole Miss.

Max (East Lansing)

Joe, sometimes I get the feeling that small conference teams who have themselves a sure bid lose on purpose in the conference tourney to help out the conference and get another team grab a bid. Does this actually happen?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:51 PM)

No chance, Max. Why would any team intentionally damage its own seed?

Dan (Seattle)

I am worried that the future of college basketball is the formation of 'super-conferences' like the big east that picks and chooses the best teams from lesser conferences. It was hard enough when there where only majors and mid-major teams. Is this just crazy talk or am I onto something?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:52 PM)

Something else I try not to think about, Dan, although expansion of the major conferences is certainly an ongoing story to watch.

Curt (Mississippi)

Does Ole Miss have to beat Tennessee on Friday to get in? Also, if by some chance LSU beats UT, does Ole Miss then have to beat LSU and their next opponent (presumably UK)?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:52 PM)

Yes and yes, Curt.

Abraham (Camillus, NY)

Joe, if you had to pick only one team to win it all, RIGHT NOW, who would you pick?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:52 PM)

Kansas.

steve (az)

Can you please explain how a memphis team with no quality wins accept for UAB can be in over a team like Uconn, who has beaten 3 of the top ten teams(wv,vill,tex). And played three others to the last possession on the road (UK,cuse, Gtown)

Joe Lunardi

  (3:53 PM)

Anybody want to answer Steve on this one? The UConn arguments are giving me a headache.

Adam (Houston)

Joe, at the end of the day how does what the tournament selection committee sees for themselves on the floor, and not the resume, impact seeding and overall selection? Some teams do/do not pass the eye ball test yet their resume may tell a different story.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:54 PM)

Every committee member is different, Adam. Me? I'm not much for the eye test.

JD (San Marcos, TX)

Rgarding the Butler win over Ohio St. Isn't weighing it differently actually the same thing as discounting it?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:54 PM)

Of course not. Saying something is a little less valuable is different that saying it's worthless.

tyler (Wisconsin)

is marquette just lucky or do they have a shot?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:55 PM)

Way better than lucky, Tyler.

Scott (Kent, Oh)

Joe good afternoon. If Kent State doesnt win the MAC Tournament can they still get an at large with making it to the championship?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:56 PM)

Very slim chance, Scott. I don't believe Kent has beaten a single team in the current field.

Pat (NY)

Is ODU in, regardless of whether they lose tonight in the CAA Final?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:56 PM)

I think so (and hope so). It's a very good team.

Shawn (El Paso)

Who's bracket does K-State want/hope to be in: Syracuse, Kentucky, or Duke?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:57 PM)

I don't know what K-State thinks, Shawn. I would want to be in Duke's bracket.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:57 PM)

And I'm also out of time (as well as laptop batteries). See you next time! THANKS, Joe.