Eric Karabell

  (3:00 PM)

Hello all and welcome to another fantasy baseball chat session. Thank you for taking the time today, I will try to get to as many questions as possible. Just a few weeks until Opening Day! OK, here we go...

Pete (New York)

Keeper league ... BJ Upton or McCutchen?

Eric Karabell

  (3:00 PM)

Probably Upton, because I think his numbers are a bit further along and he's still pretty young. But it's close.

Nick Fox (Doylestown)

Can you see taking jimmy rollins in the second round of a 5x5 roto league?

Eric Karabell

  (3:01 PM)

I think it's a bit generous, but let's remember he was a first rounder in the past and really, I could see a scenario in which he returns to that 25-homer, 40-steal level. I have him pegged for round 3...

Isaac (Fresno)

When do you expect Chapman to be in the majors?

Eric Karabell

  (3:02 PM)

Not in April. Too young, too raw, but man his fastball really moves. I think the Reds will be patient with him, and he might be on the Strasburg timetable, which many believe is in June. Aroldis really shouldn't be viewed that much differently.

Ben (FL)

Keeper league...Everth Cabrera or Alcides Escobar?

Eric Karabell

  (3:03 PM)

I think there's more upside with Escobar, at least when it comes to being a complete hitter and developing power. Cabrera can run, of course... Escobar should be a better fantasy option though.

don (minnesota)

Better keeper in 12 team auction? A-Rod at $40 or Youkilis at $12?

Eric Karabell

  (3:03 PM)

Oh, Youkilis. That's really cheap for him. We have him pegged for twice that much. A-Rod at $40 is also a bit high, even for him.

Numekeba Narradugu (Washington, DC)

If the Twins's Nathan goes down, who is next in line for saves? Thanks.

Eric Karabell

  (3:05 PM)

I blogged Tuesday that Jon Rauch will save 30 games this season, be the next David Aardsma. Haven't gotten much negative feedback on it, so I guess to most people who read it they agreed! Honestly, it could be Matt Guerrier, but I'd choose Rauch. And yes, Nathan is done, unfortunately. Tough break. I had him for 5 of those 6 awesome closer seasons in my oldest league, then foolishly dealt him... revenge!

Sean (New York)

Hi Eric, now with Reyes having more questions about his health, what round do you forsee him being drafted in?

Eric Karabell

  (3:06 PM)

I'm not too worried - and neither is he - about this latest malady. I think even if Reyes goes "only" 10-60 with 40 steals, that's not too bad in the fourth round considering he plays shortstop. I haven't changed my mind because of the thyroid condition. It can be treated.

Jamie (Canada)

Would you trade Tex for Beckham in a dyntasy league knowing that 2B is always a pretty shallow position?

Eric Karabell

  (3:06 PM)

I can make the case for Beckham. Frankly, if/when he goes 25-90-15 this season a lot of people will start considering him a top-25 player next season. Teixiera is better, but it's all relative to price and position.

Phil (LA)

EK, isn't Matt Guerrier a better pitcher than Jon Rauch? Just better...

Eric Karabell

  (3:07 PM)

I don't think that's something we can simply presume. Guerrier had a very good 2009 season, no doubt, and he's been durable, but he is not a K guy, very hittable, and look at those home runs. Rauch isn't perfect either... but at least he has some experience closing, and he did well at it.

matt (Issaquah)

Nobody is mentioning that Manny Ramirez had the highest OPS among outfielders last season, .949, which was higher than Braun, Holliday, Bay, or Lind. Why is he being disrespected so much in the rankings? If you say it's the post-PED thing, then shouldn't we also knock ARod, too? It was only two seasons ago he hit 37 HR.

Eric Karabell

  (3:09 PM)

I think with Manny the issue is his motivation to play in more than 140 games. It sure seems like Joe Torre will give his left fielder plenty of rest. Also, is OPS a category in most leagues? If it was, we'd rank Manny better. Let's see him hit 30 home runs. At 25-90 or so, without stealing bases, there are many outfielders like him. OPS isn't a factor in most fantasy formats.

Jose (Miami)

If Ian Stewart goes .260 30 90 85 10 as a 2B- he is a 20$ player/3rd round pick. I think these are reasonable projections. Am I wrong?

Eric Karabell

  (3:10 PM)

I could see the power, but I'm a bit skeptical on the batting average. Still, would it shock me if Stewart really emerged? No. The point is you don't have to take him in round 3 of any league, even an NL-only one.

jay (philly)

hey eric- this is my first time doing an auction draft for baseball. Whats the best strategy to follow to get the best results? The league is a H2H points league.

Eric Karabell

  (3:12 PM)

I'd say get a balanced team, try to save your money to fill all the stats you need, don't punt any categories. Auctions are a blast, I definitely recommend them. And in a h2h points league, I lean more to power hitters and even less to the starting pitchers.

Daniel (NYC)

Which speedy outfielder do you see having the biggest year? Borbon, Davis, Morgan, Pierre, Bourne

Eric Karabell

  (3:13 PM)

I think they are all relatively even, which is why it makes no sense that Bourn is being drafted so much higher than the others. I'd say Borbon is the one with the most upside here, because he can develop power. With the others, they are what they are.

Jake (Salt Lake City, UT)

Is there another ESPN Experts mock draft coming before the season starts? I have an impossible matchup week 1 of my league and could really use another of your mock drafts to help

Eric Karabell

  (3:13 PM)

Why yes, I do believe you will see another one in a matter of days... we had a blast drafting it.

Kooper (Everglades)

Does Adam Laroche finally have a huge year now that he is in that park?

Eric Karabell

  (3:14 PM)

"That" park? Certainly he has moved to a place more suitable for a home run hitter, but until LaRoche solves the issues he always seems to have in a season's first half, it's tough to imagine a huge year. But he's solid, generally underrated, and not a bad corner infield pick.

Lee (NYC)

I am disappointed that i didn't get Eslbury for steals but my OF consists of Justin Upton, Braun, Werth, and Torri Hunter. Am I ok in stls or should I trade?

Eric Karabell

  (3:15 PM)

Well, those are just four of your players. Do any of your infielders run? This alone is not enough steals to compete, though having four guys get between 15-20 steals is nice. But 80 steals aren't enough. I mean, the Ellsbury owner already has 60! Get a SS who runs... they're out there.

Jack (Chicago)

Follow up on Rauch and Guerrier...aside from 2008 Guerrier's HR/9 is better than Rauch...plus Rauch's career FB% is much higher than Guerrier's. I would believe Rauch is more HR prone.

Eric Karabell

  (3:17 PM)

I disagree, though certainly Rauch has had a problem with home runs in his past as well. Fly ball percentage is one thing; Aardsma gave up a ton of fly balls last season, but not many home runs. But again, I wouldn't be surprised if Guerrier got the call. I just think Gardenhire opts for experience, and a better strikeout rate.

Beethoven (NY)

Heyward breaks spring training the ATL RF? If so, where does he bat? Projections?

Eric Karabell

  (3:18 PM)

I think he will make the team and I'd expect 20 home runs; I don't want to get too excited, since he's just a kid, but obviously he can be awesome. He might run, too. But for now, let's rein it in a bit. I'd say 20-75-12, and he probably hits like 6th in the order. Bobby Cox isn't one to heap pressure on a kid and bat him cleanup.

Garrett (IA)

In the Mock Drafts you and the other staff participate in, do half the guys leave after the 6th round without putting their team on autodraft? Just wondering if your experience is like ours in the Mock Draft lobbies here on espn.com :)

Eric Karabell

  (3:19 PM)

In the draft lobby this does tend to happen, as owners want to see how the first 50 or so picks go - obviously, those tend to be more critical in the big picture - but in our staff mocks nobody ever leaves until all picks are made. We're not messin' around here!

Frank (Coram, NY)

Ike Davis one more year away?

Eric Karabell

  (3:20 PM)

Yeah, the Mets first base prospect is having a nice spring, but I find it unlikely the Mets just kick Daniel Murphy to the curb. Davis will be in the minors.

Chris (Chicago)

Which four pitchers would you choose from? (10 team 5x5 roto)Gallardo, Vazquez, Josh Johnson, Hanson, Webb, Nolasco, Cain, Jimenez, Hamels, Wandy.

Eric Karabell

  (3:20 PM)

I'd say the first 4 you mention here jump out at me for sure. Hamels would probably be fifth.

Scott pose (Miami)

I am really torn on Porcello- are the Ks gonna be there this year? Is he a 15$ up and comer, or a 3$ spot starter?

Eric Karabell

  (3:21 PM)

He's a definite up and comer, but I don't expect the strikeouts to reach 140 or so until 2011. Each year they will go up. The Tigers are going to be careful and treat him like a kid... it's a valuable arm. But $3 is a steal.

Pat (215)

Shane Victorino: Totally overrated fantasy player now that he is hitting 7th?

Eric Karabell

  (3:22 PM)

Not overrated. We've done research that proves speedy basestealing outfielders - any position really - can get their steals in any spot in the order. Victorino will probably aim to hit for more power and maybe he goes 18-75 this year, who knows.. but he will run, too. No worries on him.

Ray (burlington, nj)

How about Liriano as the Twins closer?

Eric Karabell

  (3:23 PM)

Too much upside to recapture his old glory as a starting pitcher. Really, the problem with Liriano isn't that he runs out of gas after three innings or 50 pitches. He's got a magic arm but he has been erratic off the Tommy John surgery. By all accounts he looks better now and has regained confidence. I'd be shocked if the Twins resort to him as a closer. He's more valuable making 30 terrific starts.

Gerald (Work)

Real quick EK... do I keep Quentin in my keeper league? or should I target an up and coming player like Billy Butler or Jay Bruce?

Eric Karabell

  (3:24 PM)

While I think we've seen Quentin's best, that doesn't mean he can't get back to a 30-100 campaign. I'd take him over both Butler (deep position at 1B) and Bruce (still unproven).

Bart (Indiana)

Your thoughts on Polanco this year?

Eric Karabell

  (3:25 PM)

About as safe as they come. Good batting average, could reach double digits in power and speed, and he doesn't miss games. Plus, multi-eligibility after a week of the season. No worries on this guy, and I could see him hitting over .300.

matt (DC)

In a holds league, is Lyon more valuable than a Phil Hughes?

Eric Karabell

  (3:26 PM)

I personally don't think either one of them is going to get holds. I think Hughes is the Yankees' fifth starter, and Lyon closes for the Astros. If neither happens, and you want holds, Hughes would get them.

Steve (Belleville, IL)

EK- Please help!! Keepers due in 45 minutes and I cant decide on my final spot. I'm keeping Lincecum, Howard, Pedroia, and Wright. Who of the following should be my last keeper: Morales, Cruz, or Hamels?

Eric Karabell

  (3:27 PM)

I'd go Cruz over Morales... get some stolen bases in there.

Mickey T (Exiled on Main Street)

Hi EK. G Beckham (29th) or Z Greinke (10th)?

Eric Karabell

  (3:27 PM)

I'd take Beckham. Greinke is awesome, but 29th round is just silly for a guy who should go 25-90-15 right away.

Ray (burlington, nj)

Liriano has only made 38 starts in his career. Check his stats for first 25 pitches.....he dominates.

Eric Karabell

  (3:28 PM)

I'm hardly questioning which role he'd pitch better in, but I'm saying every major league team would prefer a dominant arm be a starter over relieving. Every single team. And it's not like the Twins have so much rotation depth - Brian Duensing notwithstanding! - that they don't have room.

Brian (Richmond, Ky.)

David Freese: worth a look in a 16+ team league, or are there safer 3B options?

Eric Karabell

  (3:29 PM)

Certainly there are safer options, because the Cardinals have other options if Freese struggles like he did last April. We project him for 19 and 75, so obviously we believe, and Freese is one of my big sleepers. In a 16-teamer, sure, I'd think he'd be taken.

Aaron (Texas)

EK, need some help. Will GRady regain his #1 OF status from years back or has he peaked?

Eric Karabell

  (3:29 PM)

He hasn't peaked. He had one tough season because he was injured. I wouldn't worry. Maybe he doesn't hit .270, but he's a 25-25 guy again. Enjoy.

Marissa (Arlington, TX)

Eric, I am a huge Rangers and fantasy fan. I wanted to know what your expectations are for Elvis A. I think he would be great at the top of the lineup but what do you expect from him at the bottom if he stays in the 9 spot.

Eric Karabell

  (3:30 PM)

I don't think it matters much, except for the runs scored. He's a poor man's Jose Reyes in terms of numbers for this year... similar steals, emerging pop to double digits, really in a keeper league this guy is gonna be a monster soon. If he's more comfortable hitting ninth than first/second, good. Leave him there and let him be a second leadoff hitter.

Lou (Canton, MI)

Hello Eric. 5:00 pm keeper deadline....would love your opinion. "in a vacuum", which 2 would you cut? Javier Vazquez $6, Cain $9, Weeks $3, BJ Upton $23, and Span $1. Thanks.

Eric Karabell

  (3:32 PM)

Tough to cut Vazquez and Cain there. Obvoiusly don't know your other names, but Upton is a bit pricey, Span doesn't do much... those pitchers can get you 380 strikeouts.

Brian (Bakersfield, CA)

EK - Who's in line to bat leadoff in Baltimore if Robert's start's the year on the DL or goes down for any period of time? When is Baseball Today going daily?

Eric Karabell

  (3:33 PM)

It looks like Roberts is gonna be fine, but certainly they could put Adam Jones there, maybe Tejada or Reimold. Roberts is going to play. As for the Baseball Today podcast, probably the week after next.

Brian (Miami)

What do you expect from Butler and Bruce this year? Do you think both will hit 30?

Eric Karabell

  (3:33 PM)

I'd take the under on 30 homers for both. But it's certainly possible.

Rob (ND)

In my h2h regular league do i trade away Longoria and David Price for Oswalt and Holliday? (I have David Wright as my backup 3B)

Eric Karabell

  (3:34 PM)

I'd ignore the fact you have the second and third best third baseman. So what? One can play corner. I don't make that trade.

Caitlin (Long Island)

Are you at all concerned about Johan's shaky outing?

Eric Karabell

  (3:35 PM)

I'm concerned about Johan Santana in general, but nothing that happened this week has made it worse. It's spring training. The pitchers are always far behind the hitters, and a veteran guy like this, his starts are meaningless. The lone goal for him is staying healthy and getting his work in.

brian (boston)

any idea where or if dye will play?

Eric Karabell

  (3:36 PM)

He's certainly running out of time. But not a bad speculative pick in deeper one league formats. He's probably going to land on an AL team when an injury opens up a spot.

Tom (Ill)

Better fantasy 2B..Beckham or Zobrist?

Eric Karabell

  (3:37 PM)

A year from now, it's Beckham. But Zobrist is right there. Both are underrated this year, too. There's no reason Zobrist can't duplicate his 2009. Look at the walks. The month to month. He's fine. And he plays 2B!

Bob (Philadelphia)

AJ Mass's "mulligan ERA" is total nonsense, right?

Eric Karabell

  (3:38 PM)

Not at all. Very interesting article I think, because if Nolasco, for example, can just avoid the REALLY bad outings, watch out. And most top pitchers figure things out.

Charlie (NJ)

Whats up Eric...Commish quesiton for you...Besides the standard scoring, what are the best categories to add in your opinion, say, if I wanted a 6 x 6 league...I try to make a conscious effort to have stat cats overlap as little as possible...I like Total Bases and Quality Starts personally

Eric Karabell

  (3:39 PM)

I like quality starts, but moreso at the expense of wins. I don't like wins. Nobody does. I often see innings or earned runs, stats that reflect a pitcher's durability. And I like OPS for hitters, but again, often instead of batting average. Total bases is a good pick.

Kyle (OH)

What is *too* early for selecting Heyward in a 10-team, 7-keeper league? I have the final pick in the 1st round in a traditional snake draft and I would like to acquire Heyward for the next decade (to go along with former picks J. Upton, Longoria, A. Jones and Wieters).

Eric Karabell

  (3:41 PM)

First of all, there is absolutely no such thing as "too early" for anyone. It's YOUR team. I say Kevin Youkilis go in the first round of a recent draft, and while I wouldn't do that, and I think it's too early, it wasn't my team. To that guy, it wasn't too early. Who am I to judge? Youkilis would have to be Teixeira, but odder things have happened. On Heyward, the sky is the limit. If you want to reach on him before someone else does, nobody can say you're wrong.

Tom (Ill)

Is there any chance Zobrist goes to the OF permenently with Sean Rodriguez getting the 2B starts?

Eric Karabell

  (3:42 PM)

Possibly, but I think it's more likely Matt Joyce gets right field at bats. Doesn't matter, for Zobrist has 2B eligibility all this season anyway.

Tracy (CA)

Ellsbury with two HRs today. Does he even have Carl Crawford power potential? Or are his past couple seasons pretty much all he's got in terms of power?

Eric Karabell

  (3:42 PM)

I certainly wouldn't get excited about him hitting 15 homers just because he hit a pair today. He's not a power guy. But someday - could be now - he reaches double digits. Crawford hit 15 homers... I doubt Ellsbury does that in 2010.

Eric (Chicago)

EK, Antonio Bryant signed with the Bengals and it looks like no T.O. in Cincy...does Palmer's value rise at all with 2 receiving options for the Bengals?

Eric Karabell

  (3:43 PM)

Not really. It's nice that the Bengals gave him another option, but this was a running team, and probably will be again. I don't see Bryant having a big season, not like 2008.

Kris (Auburn, NH)

You're crazy if you don't think Bruce hits 30 this year, Eric.

Eric Karabell

  (3:44 PM)

If you think he can stay healthy enough to do so, that's great. I didn't say he doesn't have power.

Jason (San Diego)

Eric, is there a mid round OF thet you've been targeting in your drafts that you feel is undervalued?

Eric Karabell

  (3:45 PM)

Chris Coghlan. I think our projections on him are low across the board, pretty much every stat. I see double digit power, 20 steals, over .300 batting average. And yes, I keep drafting him.

Don (MN)

What do you expect out of Alex Rios this year? Also do you think I should drop Blackburn or Pinero if either?

Eric Karabell

  (3:46 PM)

I think Rios is being undervalued because he played poorly the second half last year. He's a nice low-cost 20-20 possibility. And I'd prefer to own Pineiro, even with the lack of Ks, than Blackburn. Too hittable.

Anthony (Raleigh, NC)

Eric,If Beckham already had 2nd eligibility, where would you rank him among 2nd basemen for the drafts?

Eric Karabell

  (3:47 PM)

Probably right ahead of Aaron Hill, which is 8th... but I would also avoid Brian Roberts and probably Robby Cano in the rounds they are going in.

brian (boston)

do you like matt joyce as a sleeper . what u expect from him

Eric Karabell

  (3:48 PM)

Certainly has 20 homer pop if he gets 400 at bats against right-handed pitching. Too early to say for sure if he gets the chance.

Bruce (Boston, MA)

Is Nomar a viable pick for keeper leagues?

Eric Karabell

  (3:48 PM)

Welcome to the ESPN family, Nomar!

matt (Seattle)

Do you agree with ESPN's projections for Ryan Zimmerman? Effectively, he's Evan Longoria minus a few RBI. Prior to 2009, most had viewed him as a 20-25 HR hitter, instead of the 33 HR hitter who showed up last season.

Eric Karabell

  (3:49 PM)

In theory, yes, but Longoria runs some and has upside for bigger power. Most people think what Zimmerman did was the best we'll see. But yes, your point is valid.

Jason (Wala Wala)

After Reyes is there a 5 round moratorium on SS's?

Eric Karabell

  (3:49 PM)

I think Andrus is deserving of a top-75 pick, but after that, wait a few rounds on Drew and Escobar...

Chad (IL)

Kyle Blanks, Ryan Ludwick, or Garrett Jones?

Eric Karabell

  (3:50 PM)

We project Ludwick for 96 RBIs... I take him. Even something in between his past two seasons is very valuyable, and nobody seems to want him in the first 15 rounds.

Todd (Cleveland)

The TMR has Cano and Pedroia ahead of KINSLER. Crazy right?

Eric Karabell

  (3:52 PM)

Not at all. I don't, but it doesn't mean either of us are wrong or crazy. Kinsler is an injury risk, and a batting average risk. I think his production in 130 games is worth it, but Cano and Pedroia are valuable, too. We're talking third round versus fourth round here.

Paul (Mpls)

Scott Baker or Brett Anderson?

Eric Karabell

  (3:52 PM)

I say Anderson. Young lefty is already a top-20 pitcher, I think.

Eric (Toronto)

Hi Eric (you have an awesome name).Do you see Vernon Wells bouncing back this year? He "seems" to be healthy...

Eric Karabell

  (3:53 PM)

I think we've seen his best, but could he hit 20 homers, steal double digits. Of course he can. Wells seems to be getting a bad rap...

Toni (Freeport)

Jaime Garcia or Rich Hill?

Eric Karabell

  (3:53 PM)

Kyle McClellan.

chris (new york)

what do you think Joba can do this year? 5th starter? set up?

Eric Karabell

  (3:53 PM)

I think he's Rivera's setup man, and like Hughes a year ago, he'll thrive. That's his role.

Creilly (Randolph, MA)

Whats a reasonable expectation for Justin Upton? I am extremely high on him, maybe too high...

Eric Karabell

  (3:54 PM)

Our projection on him is aggressive, but reasonable. This guy can hit 35 homers, steal 20 bases. Really, not a bad second round pick.

Chris (NY)

Should I be worried about Verlander's 240 IP last year? Where does he rank among your SPs?

Eric Karabell

  (3:54 PM)

Top 10 starter. Don't worry about his innings yet.

Steve (Denver)

Adam Lind or Carlos Lee for last keeper?

Eric Karabell

  (3:55 PM)

I would go with Lind. It's not like Lee runs anymore. Both are 30-100, one is younger than the other.

Brian (Richmond, Ky.)

Why make McClellan a starter when he could be the closer of the future when Franklin collapses again? He could be the next Papelbon with the kind of stuff he has as a reliever.

Eric Karabell

  (3:56 PM)

Yeah, but major league teams don't - and shouldn't - think that way. Starting pitchers are always more valuable. Yes, a top reliever can close 40 games or so, and it looks valuable, and it is. But a starter can win the games. Maybe I'm not explaining it right... but the Yankees WANTED Joba to start. And Hughes. And once upon a time, Rivera, too!

Ken (MD)

Eric, is Slowey worht taking a chance on? 2 bolts in his wrist seems scary

Eric Karabell

  (3:57 PM)

I just think there is more injury risk, but then again, plenty of pitchers are injury risks. Good WHIP guy, just needs pinpoint control.

Bob (Chicago)

Why doesn't JP Howell get as much fantasy hype as Joba Chamberlain? He is a better fantasy option as a middle reliever. And people wonder why everyone thinks NYY prospects are overhyped.

Eric Karabell

  (3:57 PM)

Beats me. I'd rather have Howell for this season.

Matt (San Diego)

Are you buying Jason Grays analysis on Texas pitcher Colby Lewis? Can this guy make a comeback at 31?

Eric Karabell

  (3:58 PM)

Well, 31 isn't exactly old. Someday I'll be 31. I doubt Lewis thrives because he's in Texas, but he's got the arm.

Brendan (Braintree, MA)

Is it just me or is BABIP a ridiculous concept. The list of "luckiest" hitters is all great hitters and speed guys who beat plays out. What are your thoughts EK?

Eric Karabell

  (3:58 PM)

It's not ridiculous at all, but also, there is no guarantee these numbers even out to the mean. Ichiro has a high BABIP always. It's just another evaluation tool.

Eliot (Kansas City)

Your 2010 NCAA Men's Basketball National Champion is...

Eric Karabell

  (3:59 PM)

Villanova...

Vinny (NYC)

Any SP's you seem higher on than most, ala Steve Trachsel?

Eric Karabell

  (4:00 PM)

HA! Those days are over... and no more Dave Bush either. I've had enough! I'd say I keep getting Brett Anderson in drafts... Dice-K, Porcello, Wade Davis...

Eric Karabell

  (4:01 PM)

OK, thanks to all for the great questions. We wouldn't be here without you. Just a few more weeks and the games will count. Have a great day and start studying those numbers... and get ready for bracket time!