Klaw

  (12:02 PM)

The truth is that the demon who controls Eyjafjallajoekull is actually an Astros fan, just venting his frustration with the team.

Todd (adair,IA)

Again I don't want to add to all of the hype, but .422 15 hr and slg. .891, through 39 games. and he is 17!! Am I blowing this out of proportion or is the potential ther to match the hype?

Klaw

  (12:04 PM)

This is why I argued yesterday that the Nationals would be nuts to take someone else. What Harper is doing is incredible, given his age, the wood bats, and the caliber of competition in that circuit, which one cross-checker told me he thought was comparable to a lower-tier D1 conference.

Crazy Draft Speculation (<2 Months Away)

Do you see any college bats going in the first 40 picks other than Brentz, Wates, Cox, Grandal and Colon? Which of those guys can I hope my team snags 35-40. Or who is #6?

Klaw

  (12:06 PM)

Michael Choice will go in the first 40 picks, certainly. I don't know if you count Levon Washington, who's at Chipola JC, but he could go that high if someone wants to take a chance on his shoulder. Could see another catcher taken up there, like Gibbs or Brantly, or maybe Colon's teammate Gary Brown as a true CF who's probably an 80 runner. Wates is the one guy on your list who could slide out of the first round because he's barely playing center now, and it's not clear that he's going to have the instincts for it.

Nate (Philly)

Keith- Andrew Cashner is having (in a small sample-2 games) an absurd amount of K's in the startting rotation. The first game, he went 4.1, K'ed 10, but then seemed to tire. Last night, he went 6+ before giving up a hit or a BB, and K'ed 10 or 11 again. Can you see him developing into a 1 or 2 starter, or do you still believe his future is in the pen? Thanks

Klaw

  (12:08 PM)

Two reasons I had him more likely to be in the pen were lack of missed bats in pro ball and bad track record prior to his draft year as a starter, with some medical concerns. If he's healthy, and continues missing bats (small sample size caveat applies), then yes, he'd project as a starter and would have two plus pitches in that role.

Tom (Madison, WI)

There's a Tea Party going on outside my office. Please keep me distracted.

Klaw

  (12:09 PM)

I don't know, see if they have some Nilgiri to share with you. That's pretty good stuff.

Mike (Kentucky)

Is there any indication who the Pirates are targeting for the second pick? Do you think they would actually invest in a high school pitcher like Taillon? Would Taillon fall to the Royals?

Klaw

  (12:10 PM)

If I had to project it now, I'd say Harper goes 1 to Washington, Drew Pomeranz 2 to Pittsburgh, Taillon 3 to Baltimore. That's not a bad spot for KC, with Ranaudo and Machado both there, as well as Whitson, McGuire, and Cox if they think he stays at 3b.

Greg (LA)

If you owned a team with less than a $100M payroll, isn't this what you would do: (i) never sign a FA, (ii) buy out as many arb and FA years as possible, and if you can't move the guy, (iii) sign as many over slot draftees as possible, and (iv) spend the rest of your money on 16 year old Dominicans.

Klaw

  (12:11 PM)

Yeah, basically. That's at least the financial strategy. I'd modify (ii) to include only premium guys - buying out arb years on second-tier players is what burns a lot of lower-payroll teams. Well, that and Jeff Suppan.

Ray A. (San Francisco, CA)

Keith, you are pretty straightforward, so be straight forward with me about my 2010 San Francisco Giants. Is the start a fluke caused by playing terrible teams, or are they a team that can surprise this season?

Klaw

  (12:13 PM)

This is a fluke caused by playing terrible teams and because it's the start of the season when we notice hot or cold starts more than we could notice a similar streak in mid-June.

MATT (K.C.)

Do you ever worry that some of your pro-player comments will hurt your chances of getting another front office job or does it not work that way?

Klaw

  (12:14 PM)

I don't care about that. This is my job right now.

jim (vermont)

Is Nomar a HOFer? His peak was pretty stout (and I'm a Yankee fan). Callis says no. Compares to Mattingly according to Callis.

Klaw

  (12:14 PM)

Not even close.

Dave (Somerville, MA)

9 players (Dunn, Barton, Markakis, Wright, N. Johnson, Span, Rasmus, J. Bautista, Utley) have more walks than the entire Houston Astros lineup. Seriously.

Klaw

  (12:14 PM)

But no one protects a one-run deficit like Brandon Lyon!

Mike (Kentucky)

Do you think Machado can stick at short? He looks more like a 3B to me . . . but I am not exactly trained in these things.

Klaw

  (12:15 PM)

Split camp. I'll see him today, actually, but I think the industry is really divided on that one - concern he'll outgrow it fast versus good hands/actions at the position.

Mike (NJ)

Keith, has you seen or heard any scouting reports on Jesus Montero's defense in AAA? He hasn't throw anyone out yet but the Scranton pitching staff hasn't imploded or anything. Is the "he'll never catch in the big leagues" thing losing a little steam?

Klaw

  (12:16 PM)

I've heard he's as bad as ever back there, but has lost some weight and maybe he could handle left field.

John (WV)

Is it too early to start projecting who the Astros will pick at #1 next year, given their continual signability concerns?

Klaw

  (12:17 PM)

Rendon. How could they pass on the local kid and consensus top talent? I mean, I guess they could, but I find it hard to imagine.

Bobby (Worcester)

Klaw, 21 hits given up in 7ip for Bumgarner. How concerned should Giants people be?

Klaw

  (12:17 PM)

Very.

Joe (Minneapolis)

Hi Keith. Please rank these young Phillies arms : Cosart, Hyatt, May, and Colvin. Could any of them see the majors during 2012?

Klaw

  (12:18 PM)

From what I've heard Cosart has jumped ahead of the rest of the system. I could see him or May reaching the majors by 2012.

Ben (DC)

KLaw, help settle an argument: was Ben Zobrist one of the 5 best players in the American League last season?

Klaw

  (12:18 PM)

Yes.

Ira (New York)

Keith, in 5 years, Ike Davis or Logan Morrison?

Klaw

  (12:18 PM)

Morrison.

Bawb (Fairview, UT)

Who is next years Heyward? I heard very little about Heyward until mid-year last year & then all the buzz during the off season.

Klaw

  (12:20 PM)

He was number 3 on my top prospects list heading in 2009, after Wieters and Price, so you have no excuse. Candidates would include Mike Stanton, Dustin Ackley, Domonic Brown, and Aaron Hicks.

Aubrey (Houston)

When is it reasonable to expect the Astros to have a farm system in the top half of the league (assuming they continue to put together solid drafts?)

Klaw

  (12:21 PM)

They're probably two more solid drafts away, plus a trade or two this summer to add some talent.

Matt (NJ)

Keith, what are your thoughts on Adeiny Hechavarria? The NY Post at one time called him the heir apparent to Jeter. Where do you think he starts playing minor league ball?

Klaw

  (12:22 PM)

I assume he'll start in Dunedin and will reach AA mid-summer. By the way, there's a rumor running around that he has to make the major-league club by Opening Day 2013 or clear (revocable) waivers - that's wrong, he'll qualify for a fourth option, so the deadline is OD 2014.

Alan (Medford, MA)

Keith, NEVER sign a free agent? Don't think that's at least a tad bit extreme?

Klaw

  (12:23 PM)

Never sign a premium free agent. If Felipe Lopez falls into your lap for a million bucks, you do it, because he's an asset to flip four months later. But teams that aren't contending shouldn't be playing in the deep end of the free agent pool.

Johnny (NYC)

Sigh. Homer Bailey. Discuss.

Klaw

  (12:25 PM)

Was at the game last night - 92-95, threw some decent curveballs, commanded nothing, arm is quick, expected the slider to be sharper, no consistency on either breaking ball. I wouldn't write him off long-term, but don't expect much this year. Even in the 4A league you have to command your fastball or have some weapon to miss bats more often.

Dan (Boston)

I know you're not the biggest Chris Dominguez fan, but what are the Giants doing having a 23 year old (high draft pick) start in Low A?

Klaw

  (12:27 PM)

Agreed. Makes no sense. If you take a college player who you think is any kind of prospect and he can't make your high-A club, you screwed up. Badly.

Dave (NJ)

Trying to get a handle on the hype surrounding Harper. Ackley 2009, Harper 2010, or Rendon 2011. Are any of them in the same class as Justin Upton, Joe Mauer or ARod as prospects?

Klaw

  (12:28 PM)

Harper is that kind of potential star, but he's not Mauer. Very different skill set. Rendon might also be in that class - better than Ackley for me - but again, not A-Rod. All three guys you named were HS drafts.

KwameF (Queens, NY)

A Tribe Called Quest or De La Soul ?

Klaw

  (12:31 PM)

ATCQ.

Matty (Conshohocken)

What's the quickest way to rebuild a farm system... Sign over slot? Scoop up international guys?

Klaw

  (12:31 PM)

Quickest way is to trade all your veteran parts. The prospects you get there are already in pro ball, where they're easier to scout and where you have data you can analyze.

Geoffrey (Boston)

Keith, What are your thoughts on Plastic Beach? I think it is a pretty solid album but nothing stands out.

Klaw

  (12:32 PM)

Very disappointed. Like a mediocre trip-hop record from the mid-90s.

jim (pittsburgh)

Please tell me my pirates will step up and take taillon #2 and pay what it takes instead of going cheap with their 1st pick like they did last year. Is it true that taillons stuff is better than Becketts was when he was in high school?

Klaw

  (12:33 PM)

Taillon < Beckett. He's not the slam-dunk number-two in this draft. I am consistently hearing from scouts and directors that they see Taillon up to 98 ... and hitters are squaring up his fastball. If you're taking a HS RHP in the top 5 picks, you want him to be pretty close to perfect, and he's not that.

Trebor (Austin, TX)

I think you were the who started driving the Starlin Castro bandwagon -- do you not see him in the same level of next year breakouts as Ackley, Stanton, Brown, Hicks just because of development timeline, or talent difference?

Klaw

  (12:33 PM)

Actually it was because I think he'll get too much big league time this year to qualify for next winter's list.

Shannon (MO)

What do you make of Rasmus' walk numbers so far? It's only 8 games, but he already has as many walks as he did in any single month of last season, and several 2 month stretches from last season. Is a 280/380/500 line out of the question for him this year?

Klaw

  (12:36 PM)

I don't think that line is out of the question. I wrote before the season that I thought Rasmus' approach would translate to better performance this year, because he was working the count well late last year. It's early, very early, but it's a step in the right direction.

Jason (St Louis)

Do you think Mike Gonzalez is seriously hurt? Mid 80's for a power pitcher has to have something behind it.

Klaw

  (12:36 PM)

Has to be. And he's not exactly a pillar of health.

Dan (Boston)

Do you think Bumgarner and Alderson's velo drop has anything to do with the Giants system?

Klaw

  (12:36 PM)

I think it's a valid question that I'm not in a position to answer.

Jason (St Louis)

Is there any way Darryl Jones could play RF? The Cards have a LF locked up long term and Ludwick is going to be pretty expensive after next year. They're going to need someone cheap there to afford Pujols.

Klaw

  (12:38 PM)

I'm not sure his bat profiles in a corner. Not with his current swing, at least.

Marcus (Short Pump, VA)

How high is Shelby Miller's ceiling? Were you a fan of that Cards pick last year?

Klaw

  (12:39 PM)

Potential number-one starter. And yes.

Bret (Toronto)

Since trading draft picks is impossible in MLB, is something like this possible (just as an example)?: The Pirates badly want Harper, so they send a prospect to Washington in exchange for the Nationals not taking him?

Klaw

  (12:40 PM)

They'd have to disguise that in a real trade, with players going both ways ... it's not explicitly against the rules but it would be hard to hide.

Andrew (Rochester)

What happened with Ranaudo post-injury? Did his stock not take a serious hit?

Klaw

  (12:41 PM)

He's thrown well since he came back. Assuming the medicals are fine, and there was no indication his injury was serious, I expect him to go top 5.

Jay (Durango, Co)

What's your take on Tyler Colvin? He was looking like quite the dissapointment until this spring. Could the added muscle make that big of a difference or are we seeing the Cubs overreacting to a good spring?

Klaw

  (12:42 PM)

He's stronger, but still fundamentally the same player. Nice fourth outfielder.

Randy (Toronto)

Any reason to be worried about Sniders slow start? He has nothing left to prove in AAA so what would you do if you where Cito?

Klaw

  (12:43 PM)

He gets 500 AB in the majors this year. Period. If they don't do that, they're not serious about developing their own talent.

Gus (New City, NY)

3-2-1- Contact ruled.

Klaw

  (12:43 PM)

Especially the Bloodhound Gang.

Jibraun (Los Angeles, CA)

I was wondering what your thoughts are on Tango's blog post re: Payroll Matters?

Klaw

  (12:46 PM)

I don't think it told us what it purported to tell us. We've always known there was a correlation between payroll and playoff performances, but that doesn't demonstrate causation. Looking at that cluster of years ignores the fact that the "playoffs" variable correlates highly in consecutive years (since your roster doesn't change that much year to year). It also ignores the fact that teams that do not expect to compete in a given year often drive down payroll, either in the preceding offseason or in the summer of non-contention (I assume he used actual spending, not OD payrolls). And so on. Yes, money helps, but its importance is overstated.

Dave (Dallas)

Favorite Muse song?

Klaw

  (12:47 PM)

"Sunburn." Or "Supermassive Black Hole."

tfierst (Saint Paul)

Thoughts on Masterson thus far? Think he can become an above average starter. Maybe ceiling of a #2?

Klaw

  (12:49 PM)

Reliever. Still can't get LHB out (they're 7/14 against him this year, 0 K).

Matt P (Maryland)

If you think that Taillon isn't worthy of being a top 5 pick, then why do you think the Orioles will draft him? Is this your way of explaining why they're 1-161?

Klaw

  (12:51 PM)

I think he's not the slam-dunk number two in this draft. I don't think he'd be a bad selection at 3 any more than I thought Hobgood was a bad selection at 6 even though I had him around 18 on my board. But this idea that Taillon is some automatic star who should be in consideration for number-one overall is incorrect.

Jeff (OH)

Keith, Orlando Hudson's being stupid, right?

Klaw

  (12:51 PM)

He's wrong in this case. Dye doesn't have a job because he can't play defense and wants too much money.

Jeff (Ohio)

Have you seen Abner Abreu? He's drawing Vlad comparisons for his tall, lanky body, aggressive approach, and quick bat speed. Any chance he comes close to that comp?

Klaw

  (12:51 PM)

I like Abreu quite a bit, but that's a little rich for me.

JD (Germantown, WI)

Klaw, it's early. But what do you think of Rickie Weeks so far? If he stays healthy all year I think his numbers could look pretty impressive, maybe All-Star caliber for a 2B?

Klaw

  (12:54 PM)

I'll believe in Weeks until he retires. He's an honorary member of my annual breakouts list.

Dan (Boston)

Do you have any theories on why some guys like Matt Cain consistently perform above their FIPs (3.88 FIP compared to 3.54 ERA for career) and others such as Javier Vasquez consistently perform below their FIPS (3.83 FIP to 4.21 ERA)?

Klaw

  (12:55 PM)

There is some merit to the argument that certain pitchers will pitch better with the bases empty (from the windup) than with men on (from the stretch) because their deliveries are different.

Dan (Sacto)

How does Karstens compare to Taillon?

Klaw

  (12:56 PM)

Doesn't have Taillon's raw power, but has much better fastball command, and has above-average stuff himself. Taillon's the better guy, but I could make an argument for Whitson over him, especially given what I expect each guy to cost.

Sean (pittsburgh)

Garret Jones has cooled off somewhat but is still drawing walks at a pace not seen before. Has his new penchant for being selective altered your opinion on him at all?

Klaw

  (12:56 PM)

As with Rasmus, let's see where they are in June.

paul (Boise)

What do you think of Hermann Hesse as an author? Noticed he's not in any of your lists, but I figure you must have read a few of his books.

Klaw

  (12:56 PM)

Only Siddhartha, when I was 15. Found it boring. Om.

Pat G (Long Island)

Hey Keith what's the ETA on Smoak? You seemed to be the only industry leader that wasn't concerned at all about Smoak's power ceiling after his showing in AAA last season... take a bow =D

Klaw

  (12:57 PM)

Mid-June, I'm guessing. Maybe a little sooner if they feel the need is desperate.

Jason (Nashville)

Keith, I know that the numbers say that strikeouts for hitters aren't much, if any, worse than other kinds of outs. Is there an argument to be made under BABIP about the negative effect?

Klaw

  (12:58 PM)

Yes, and no. Yes, from a stat perspective you are correct - but I think from a player development perspective, changing a hitter's swing or approach to reduce Ks may adversely affect his BABIP. I understand where you're coming from but I'd be reluctant to mess with a guy who was already having success despite high Ks.

Craig (St. Paul, MN)

Thoughts on the new MGMT? Seems like they are trying to do what Yeasayer just did in throwing out what worked best on the last album and going in a different direction (here throwing out pop hooks for experimentation in style). Seems to me like it worked for Yeasayer, but simply does not for MGMT.

Klaw

  (12:59 PM)

I don't think I've heard anything yet, but had mixed feelings on their first album.

Abe (NH)

Keith, I noticed you said a couple of times you weren't a fan of The Watchmen graphic novel, is there any particular reason why? Did you just think it was silly? Or how the story kind of fell apart towards the end?

Klaw

  (1:00 PM)

The story was very thin - if you added up all the text, it's barely a novella - and the ending completely failed for me.

O's Fan (DC)

Talk Matusz. He's the only thing keeping me from repeatedly hitting my head on my desk.

Klaw

  (1:00 PM)

Potential RoY, future Cy contender.

matt (seattle)

Carlos Santana is the second coming of Victor Martinez?

Klaw

  (1:00 PM)

Better.

Mike (Reno)

I'm going to see Harper tomorrow. Anything I should look for?

Klaw

  (1:00 PM)

Go see BP. He can put on a show there.

Curtis (Kansas City)

Any thoughts on Montgomery's last start? 7 ip, 2h, 1 er, 0 bb, 13 k. Plus, hitting 95 in the 7th.

Klaw

  (1:01 PM)

That velo, if true, is the best news, because I saw him less than a month ago and he wasn't close to that.

Jim (Boston)

Wouldn't part of the explanation for a pitcher, especially one who's played for the same team their entire (short) career outperforming FIP be that they play in front of a good defense or in a good pitcher's park? FIP doesn't account for that, does it? Of course, the good defense argument doesn't help Cain's candidacy...

Klaw

  (1:01 PM)

True.

Don (MN)

Chisenhall have any future as a regular, or is he more of a straggler.

Klaw

  (1:01 PM)

Above-average regular. Needs to improve his D and probably needs another 500+ AB in the minors, given how he looked against big-league pitching in March when I saw him.

Blake (Apple Valley, MN)

Klaw, great advice on your blog about the Droid apps. Any new favorites? Talk about Gio Gonzalez please. For me he's just not a big league starter is he?

Klaw

  (1:04 PM)

Handcent has been outstanding, I grabbed that after chompSMS was crashing too often. I don't think Gio is more than a 5th starter long-term. Good lineup for him to face last night and he still struggled.

Jeff (Ohio)

Highest ceiling between Knapp, Hagadone, and Alex White. Who starts, who closes?

Klaw

  (1:05 PM)

Knapp has the highest ceiling and by far the highest beta, since he's still out with the shoulder injury and his arm action was always ugly. Hagadone's strictly a reliever.

Klaw

  (1:05 PM)

OK, gotta grab lunch and head over to BP. I'll be back next week, probably at the usual time again.