Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Friday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Friday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Hello! Before we get started, I just want to take a moment to let everyone know that The Football Scientist 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Guide is now ready to go! For more information, check out www.thefootballscientist.com/kcjoyner. Now let's talk some football!
Brian Evans (French Lick)
Do you think the 300 yard 3 times conditioning test for Haynesworth's size and position is excesive, granted I don't know the time requirement, but he's not a distance runner!
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
I think Shanahan wanted Haynesworth to fail the conditioning test. Had AH passed the first step of the test, Shanahan would have added another step and kept doing so until he failed one. This is a matter of wanting to establish control of the situation for Shanahan, not to find out if Haynesworth is in shape (or at least that's my viewpoint on this).
jim ( Philly)
Hey KC, Do you think that Carson Palmer will look more like 2006 Carson or will we see more of the same of what we saw last year?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
The Bengals face a really tough schedule coverage-wise this year. Palmer may do a bit better than last year due to the addition of Owens (who can still do some things even if he can't beat top-level coverage) but this is once again going to be a run-first club.
Lauren ( Philly)
KC, What are realistic expectations for Knowshon Moreno this year. Word out of Denver is that he looks ready to take a big leap this year.
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
I have him listed as a near-elite player in the TFS draft guide. He didn't do that well in the good blocking YPA category but if he improves that number even just by a bit, the volume of carries he's likely to get will put him over the 1,000 yard mark.
Love the fantasy book... In a touchdown heavy league would you still put Gore above MJD and still have Austin the number 1 WR? Who would move up in this format?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Thanks for the good word about the guide. I trust the SF offense more than the Jacksonville offense, so Gore still would rate ahead. I would also be worried about MJD's ability to be a bellcow RB - check out yesterday's Insider article for more details.
Brad (Stilson) [via mobile]
KC my man! Long time listener 1st time caller...If the Eagles are going to be more West Coast this year with Kolb starting who would be Jerry Rice and who would be John Taylor between Maclin and Jackson?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
I can say this about Maclin's 2010 chances - if he posts either Taylor or Rice-like numbers, it will be a herculean accomplishment. No WR in the league has a tougher schedule than Maclin this year.
Brian (Lafayette, LA)
KC -professional question-How do you deal with the negative comments your articles receive? I know it's gotta be a tough task to write contrarian thoughts about topics people think they know everything about.
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Getting negative feedback is part and parcel of this business. Someone is always going to disagree with you no matter what angle is taken, so I really tend to put it out of my mind. I just write about whatever the research says would be of most interest to readers and let the negative chips fall where they may.
Are you a little worried that Trent Edwards as starting QB will not get the ball down the field to Evans? I remember you said that Gailey is good at pushing the ball down the field, but Edwards at least to the untrained eye is not.
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
Edwards is not as good of a deep ball passer as Lee Evans needs to fully achieve what he is possible of doing vertical pass catching-wise. He did have a solid 11.0 vertical YPA last year but he only threw vertical passes 19.4% of the time, which is a really low amount. It is more than a bit of a concern.
KC, does Braylon Edwards have any fantasy value this year?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
He's #20 on the TFS draft guide WR cheat sheet. It's a matter of volume of passes as much as anything and he'll get ample volume this year.
Trent Edwards (training camp)
*crosses KC Joyner off Christmas card list*
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
That's OK, he's not on my Christmas card list!
The guide looks great this year! You've got Jennings as the #4 wr. With his tough schedule and the way that Rodgers spreads it out in GB, do you think he's going to get enough volume to justify that draft position?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Thanks! He has a tough schedule and did only see 116 targets last year, so there is more than a bit of backup for the idea that he should be rated lower. The reason he got that spot is that there are reasons to be concerned about the production of all of the other potential elite WRs. Wayne, Fitz, Megatron, Roddy White, Steve Smith - all of these guys have potential metric/matchup issues that say they may not be dominant in 2010. Jennings has the matchup issues but he had better metrics than the others, and that's what got him the #4 spot.
KC, I gotta leave work and catch the train. Please just tell me where Sidney Rice graded out among all receivers.
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
I've got him #15 on the WR cheat sheet.
Did it surprise you that Mt Cody passed his conditioning test on his second try but Big Al did not?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Cody wouldn't have passed it if he were doing the same tests as Shanahan had AH doing. I'll say it again - I would bet dimes to dollars that Shanahan was going to do everything he could to get Haynesworth to fail that test. He might as well have made it an obstacle course.
KC, just wondering why the vertical YPA metric is so important to you and why it is your go to stat when comparing quarterbacks and assessing future performance
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
In a nutshell, vertical passes matter because it is next to impossible to deliver top-line performance without doing well in that area.
Shane (Los Angeles, CA)
KCJ: True or False: Wayne will be the most overdrafted WR in FFB this year?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
If by overdrafted, you mean taken too high, I'm with you. He might get back to his old self but he is aging, is coming off of an injury that slowed him down (he'd never be beaten for an int on a smash route like he was in the Super Bowl if he were healthy) and there are tons of other quality targets in the Indy offense.
Chris (G.R. MI) [via mobile]
Where can I buy the draft guide? Just on your website?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
It is also available on Amazon.com. Thefootballscientist.com website has both print and online options as well as fantasy start-sit service upgrade options. Amazon only has the print version but it does offer media mail shipping that isn't available on the TFS site.
SprungOnSports (Long Island)
Based on metrics, how high would you rank Steve Jackson among RB's and what kind of season will he have this season behind a young offensive line?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
Jackson is rated high in the draft guide in large part because a) he posted a quality good blocking YPA score last year and b) the Rams have an easy run defense schedule in 2010. I like his chances.
Hey KC - Seeing as you're a scientist, let's say you successfully acquire a DeLorean and fit it with a flux capacitor -- suddenly it's 2004, you have the top pick in the NFL draft and you need a QB... all things considered, who's it gonna be?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
Philip Rivers. With no disrespect to the other 2004 QBs, he's the one with the best performance level both on and off the field. If I knew then what I know now, I'd also draft a clutch kicker at the same time.
Damon (Butler, NJ)
What up KC! Good talking to you the other day...I know Laverneus Coles's metrics were pretty poor last year...was the Jets signing him to replace Holmes for the first four games a good one? Or should they just have stayed with Clowney as the third WR until the suspension ended?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
Good talking to you as well, Damon. Coles is a good pickup in that a) his metrics were quite as bad as is generally thought and b) he gives a young QB a heady WR to start the season off with. Sanchez has enough on his mind to have to worry about if a young WR is going to be ready to take on a larger role early on, but Coles will take that worry off of his mind.
KC do any of your metrics in regards to Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams, which player do the Phins get the most positive results with during a game?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Williams had a better good blocking YPA (7.1 to 6.6) but both of those numbers are really good. Miami is in good shape regardless of which one gets the ball.
Nate Kaeding (via mobile)
*crosses KC Joyner off Christmas card list*
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Remember that earlier question about how I handle negative feedback? Well, getting no Christmas cards is one thing that happens when you write material like this!
Hi KC - Kind of Off Topic but would you ever do another Q&A or forum-type session? The Chats are great but a back and forth live discussion on metrics ect... would be really cool
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
I've considered adding a Q&A section to the website, as I always enjoy reading the Q
Good blocking YPA is a great stat, but do you ever look at who is most likely to actually have good blocking though?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
I have tracked how often each RB gets good blocking. May be an article topic on Insider in the coming weeks.
Robert (Huntsville, Al)
Actually, you don't take Rivers with the first pick. The Chargers have Drew Brees then...
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Good point. I still might go for Rivers over Brees if only because Rivers' fiery attitude seems to be a better fit for SD.
So what is Welker's vertical YPA? How do you view slot guys who focus on crossing patterns and short routes? How do you judge them vs guys who only excel with the long routes?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
I don't have Welker's vertical YPA in front of me but I do remember that it was very good. He's one of those exception cases in that his high volume of short passes allows him to put up quality overall numbers without a good amount of vertical use.
Petey (Bangor, ME)
How big of a blow to the Ravens is the loss of Foxworth?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Losing Foxworth isn't good, but let's not lose sight that he wasn't a very good coverage CB to begin with. A 7.5 YPA is OK but it isn't anything to write home about.
Do you think there is such a thing as RB's setting up their blocks? In looking at the tape, do certain RB's really influence the POA for their blockers?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
Absolutely. It's something I am working finding a way to metricize. Some RBs just don't hit the hole even when it is there (Addai comes to mind) and that type of play should go on them, not the O line.
Hey KC, I know you already did a Bills questions, but I'm curious what kind of impact you think Spiller will have on that offense?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
I don't mind doing multiple Bills questions. The history of this chat is filled with lot of queries from Buffalo fans. The issue with Spiller has to do with how much time he might take from Jackson. Jackson posted a 6.3 good blocking YPA, which is a quality number. If Spiller keeps up with that total, it's a great addition.
Which would you recommmend more if you could only buy one, buying your draft guide or the insider?
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
I'd put it this way - if you get Insider once, you'll want to keep subscribing to it. Having said that, I'd recommend getting the guide and trying one month of Insider. You'll enjoy the 320 pages/50,000 words of the guide and then you'll find that Insider is something you can't live without.
Which RB performed the best with the least amount of help, good blocking. I'm guessing Jamaal Charles is up there.
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Charles posted an 8.5 good blocking YPA last year. That placed him 3rd in the league, behind only CJ and Felix Jones. Check out this week's issue of ESPN The Mag for more details along this front.
Is this ask the Scientist a silly question day? OK. If aliens invaded planet Earth and you could pick one NFL player to lead the human resistance who would you pick? Ray Lewis? Tom Brady? Brian Dawkins?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
You can tell it is the end of the week because these type of questions only enter one's mind on a Friday! Since we are talking about fantasy rather than reality, I'll take a player from the past - Walter Payton. A dominant talent, a great teammate, a hard worker - what else could one want from a leader?
Shane (Los Angeles, CA)
KCJ: Big Cards fan here. I think if the Cards are going to win the NFC West again, it will depend more on the legs of Wells/Hightower and the O-Line than Leinart's arm. What do you see in story for Wells & Hightower (who someone called the best RB at picking up the blitz) this year?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
You want a number to hang your hat for the Cards running game? Try Wells' 7.4 good blocking YPA last year, which was one of the best totals in the league. If they give him good blocking on a consistent basis, he's capable of keeping up with the league leaders in rushing.
Dan (Los Angeles)
What sort of metrics did Fred Davis post last season? Any chance he retains fantasy value, especially if the Skins move Cooley into a slot role?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
I have his metrics in the guide but don't have them right in front of me (well, I could get them but I don't want to slow the chat while I try to find them). I do remember that they were very good and that the idea of him being the tight end and Cooley being the flex tight end gives Washington two quality receiving options, something Donovan cannot get from the WR position.
With Foxworth going down for year - Will there be any veterans that the Ravens will look to? Especially since Washington and Webb are returning from ACL's. Secondary is looking a bit rought now.
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
Not sure on the veteran front, but I will say that if Webb can come back to anything resembling his 2009 form, Baltimore will do just fine. He had a YPA in the 5-6 yard range. Having Washington come back to his 2009 form would be a terrible thing, as he was in double digits in YPA last year.
Steven(modesto ca) [via mobile]
Am I just a crazy raiders fan for thinking that they have a shot at that division?
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
There are many reasons to think Oakland could make a run at an 8-8 record. If the ball bounces right and they can make it 9-10 wins, and if SD has the ball bounce badly for them, it is conceivable the Raiders could win the AFC West.
Todd(Atown PA) [via mobile]
Hey KC like your work..do you think Roy is done in Dallas and not worth drafting at all and if so how much value do you see in Dez? from what I see bsides carrying pads he can do it all.
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
What Dallas needs to do with Roy Williams is trade him to Chicago. Williams did very well in Detroit when he had Mike Martz pushing him every day of the week. No one else has been able to motivate Williams like Martz did, so Dallas needs to find a way to make this move. Regarding Dez, I want to see some preseason tapes of him. I know everyone says he's great but I want to see it on film before fully signing off on his greatness.
Is this the year the slot WR out point #2 WR in Fantasy football? Seems like the more dymanic players play in the slot and your chain mover (low point guys) are your # 2's.
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
It seems like this will be a transition year for WRs. The long-time elites may be starting their decline and the new elites are still working their way up to that level. That could make slot WRs worth much more than they are normally worth.
Steven (Kingsport, TN)
TFS: Shout out from the Smokies. The Haynesworth situation is just silly. If Shanahan doesn't want Haynesworth around just cut him and quit acting like a 10 year old. Big Al is the best combo pass rushing/run stuffing tackle in football. Shanahan should be thrilled to have him. Please send him back to Tennessee.
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
I get a kick out of hearing from Kingsport. I have some family in that area and spent a year growing up in Johnson City. There is nothing like waking up in the morning and seeing the Smoky Mountains - can't beat it. Regarding Haynesworth, I have no doubt that Jeff Fisher would handle this situation much differently and more productively. That's what is really bad about the Shanahan situation - he is once again doing what he did in Denver so many times - doing things to get a psychological edge over players in a way that hurts the team.
Dez Bryant (via mobile)
I will carry KC Joyner's pads any day
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
No need for that - just send me a Christmas card. It will make up for the cards that were taken away in this chat!
Matt (New York)
i think it's good what Shanahan is doing. Albert has been a big problem over the off-season. He needs to be cut down to size!
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
I cannot disagree more. The idea isn't to get Haynesworth to toe the company line - the idea is to get on-field production out of him. He did a great job of that last year (check out my Insider article from a few weeks back). Shanahan should be trying to find a way to solve this problem instead of trying to find a way to show that he has power over Haynesworth.
KC, who are some breakout candidates; and, please, nothing obvious.
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
How about Malcom Floyd and Donald Brown. I like both of their chances this year.
Nicolaus (Monterey CA)
KC When I draft running back heavy early I end up with Hines Ward or Hakeem Nicks at WR. When I draft WR heavy early I end up with Forsett or Portis, which strategy would you recommend for my big money fantasy draft.
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
Nicolaus, you'll do just fine withe Nicks as your WR. I'm not so sold on Forsett or Portis, so I'd go with the RB heavy early option. Well, it's been a fun hour but I've got some tape to watch and have to run. Before I go, I should mention that you can follow my material on Twitter at kcjoynertfs. Also, the draft guide can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com/kcjoyner. Hope to see you all next Thursday!