KC Joyner

  (4:00 PM)

Hello! Before we get started, a couple of quick notes. The TFS 2010 Fantasy Football Draft Guide is available at www.TheFootballScientist.com. I will be doing an update to the cheat sheets this evening to reflect the changes that have occurred around the league in the past two weeks. That will go out tomorrow. I also want to announce that there will be a TFS fantasy football chat here on SportsNation every Friday at 4 PM starting on August 13. Now let's talk some football!

Mickey G. (Arlington, VA)

Can you ever be in too many Fantasy Football leagues? My buddy is throwing up a lot of talk about 5 being to much for him, I keep telling him the most time consuming part of fantasy football is deciding what to wear to the Draft!

KC Joyner

  (4:02 PM)

You are asking someone who spends 3,000+ hours a year on football if there is such a thing as too many fantasy football leagues? I try and limit myself to four or so just from a time management perspective, but if time isn't an issue, one should join as many leagues as one can spare time for!

Jimmy N (DC)

KCJ, Lost in all this Brett Favre nonsense is the real story: "COULD SAGE ROSENFELS BECOME THE STARTER??" Wow, for once this is a relevant question!

KC Joyner

  (4:03 PM)

Jimmy, I'm guessing you didn't read my Insider article from a couple of days ago. I touted the idea that the metrics show Jackson or Rosenfels could be adequate replacements for #4.

SprungOnSports (Long Island)

Does the Broncos defense have any possible hope without Elvis Dumervil?

KC Joyner

  (4:05 PM)

He's their only pure pass rusher, so they won't be able to replicate his particular performance. What will end up happening is Denver will have to generate a pass rush via creative playcalling. If they do that, they'll have hope.

Sam (Fullerton)

Is Jamaal Charles a top 10 RB if Thomas Jones is not there?

KC Joyner

  (4:06 PM)

He posted an 8.5 good blocking YPA (YPA on plays where he received good blocking) and that total was only topped by two RBs. The issue with Charles is whether or not he can handle a full-time workload but even if he only gets 200 carries, he'll still be a top-line back.

Corey (D.C.)

KC, I cant put your new FF book down, and appreciate all the work that you put into it. In the book you have some less than flattering things to say about Arrelious Benn. I'm wondering what you think about Mike Williams? So far I read nothing but great things about him.

KC Joyner

  (4:07 PM)

I'm glad you are enjoying the draft guide! It was the largest draft guide I've ever published (300+ pages, 50,000 words) and I was concerned that might not be well received. Yours is but one of many positive comments about the extra information that was included this year, so it looks like it was the right call after all. Regarding Williams, I want to see some tape on him. I broke down some of Benn's senior season and wasn't impressed, but I want to hold off on commenting on Williams until I have the chance to do the same for him.

Sam (Fullerton)

Who was the RB with the worst good blocking YPA? I'm guessing Matt Forte? Or Tomlinson?

KC Joyner

  (4:08 PM)

It was LT. Forte's 5.6 mark was below average but it wasn't anywhere near the worst.

Joe (Detroit)

KC!! why is there no love for my LIONS defense? Everyone says it's because of our recent history, however, this defense is 100% different(players & scheme) from OWEN XVI. with our VASTLY improved offense it will help our D even that much more. Why does nobody realize this?? PLEASE HELP

KC Joyner

  (4:09 PM)

Joe, I think people want to believe the Lions are improved but they'll need to see it first. Believe me, if they do well, I'll be one of the first to say so, having spent much of my life in Michigan.

Dansby (DC)

You can only have one... Jaamal Charles or Rashad Mendenhall. Who do you choose TFS?

KC Joyner

  (4:10 PM)

Mendenhall is rated higher on the TFS draft guide cheat sheet, so I'd have to go in that direction. Mendenhall will be the bellcow RB in Pittsburgh and there are a few reasons to think that won't be the case with Charles.

KingKev (Dallas)

KC, do you think Vince Young can be a decent backup Fantasy QB for the next several years in a dynasty league?

KC Joyner

  (4:11 PM)

Kev, I did a review on Young for ESPN the Magazine's fantasy preview issue. In a nutshell, if you take his point totals during the Titans run last year and pro-rate them over 16 games, he would be a top-10 fantasy QB. He'd definitely be a good backup.

The Wig (Philly)

Who had better YPA last year D. Jackson, or J. Maclin? Any reason to think this year will be different

KC Joyner

  (4:12 PM)

Jackson. Maclin also has the toughest rated schedule of any WR this year so the odds that he wins that battle in 2010 are low.

Trent (WA)

This year, and long term: Crabtree or Nicks? Is Nicks a complete receiver or just a deep threat?

KC Joyner

  (4:13 PM)

Nicks is a complete receiver. He ran the entire tree well in college (check out the NY Times Fifth Down piece I did on him last summer) and he had terrific numbers across the board last year. Crabtree is a very good wideout but at this moment Nicks is better.

Seth (Bowdoin College)

KC what are your thoughts on Ryan Grant this year?

KC Joyner

  (4:14 PM)

I've got him 8th on the TFS draft guide RB cheat sheet. His good blocking YPA was more than acceptable and he will be the Packers bellcow RB.

Yogi (Alaska)

Would you be surprised if at this time next year we are talking about a potential breakout season for Devin Thomas? I could see him getting 50 rec and 750 yards this season, then becoming the #1 next season over Moss.

KC Joyner

  (4:16 PM)

Not really surprised in the sense that Thomas' struggles last year had a lot to do with the dysfunctional situation that was the Jim Zorn offense. Put him into a situation with a good QB and good playcaller and Thomas could very well find a way to showcase his skills.

The Wig (PHILLY)

Jackson and Maclin are on the team, how does the schedule come into play?

KC Joyner

  (4:17 PM)

The guide breaks down individual WR/CB matchups rather than just the overall defense the WR is due to face. Maclin's CBs are a tougher group than Jackson's.

Ryan (Germantown, MD)

Hey KC, It looks like the Giants might try using Smith as a deep threat rather then just a possesion reciever. How well do you think he will do in that role?

KC Joyner

  (4:18 PM)

He's already a great short pass receiver and Nicks is better suited for the vertical role. Giving Smith more medium routes is something that would fit his skills better.

Dansby (DC)

Hi KC, frequent poster and fan of your work. As you can see my last name is Dansby. Please suggest a fantasy football team name. I will use what you suggest.

KC Joyner

  (4:19 PM)

Wow, asking me to be creative in the middle of a chat. That's a tough call. Let me kick it around a bit and also ask everyone if they have any ideas?

T.J. (Lock Haven)

Wes Welker had 123 catches last year. He was supposed to be out half the season, but now he's practicing. Does that mean I should pick him up early in my draft? (We get a full point per reception.)

KC Joyner

  (4:20 PM)

I wouldn't pick him up early simply because I make it a rule not to overvalue players who are coming off of serious injuries. Welker may be able to get right back up to full speed but the odds say that generally isn't a good idea to risk high end fantasy draft picks on.

Rich (Philly)

The Vikes were noticeably better with Favre in nearly every statistical category other than rushing...care to explain how your metrics support TJack as an adequate replacement? He was offered a low tender and no other team made him an offer.

KC Joyner

  (4:22 PM)

I'm just going by Jackson's 2007 numbers. That was the year he had the most PT. If he can play up to that level (and the receiving corps on that team was terrible, nowhere near as good as the one on the current Vikings roster), he'd be fairly close to Favre metrically speaking.

Anthony (NYC)

KC do you have any metrics that compares how productive the Raider offense is when McFadden is carrying the ball vs. Bush? So far Bush seems to be the better RB.

KC Joyner

  (4:22 PM)

I can say that Bush's good blocking YPA last year was much higher than McFadden's. McFadden had one of the worst good blocking YPA totals in the league last year.

Philip D (Kensington, MD)

KC, love this year's guide man, excellent work. How much do you think the Redskins line has improved with T. Williams, A. Hicks, and J. Brown? Thanks broseph.

KC Joyner

  (4:24 PM)

Hard to say until I see some tape. Having said that, Shanahan has always done well with his O lines (albeit with a lot of good assistant coaching help), so I would lean towards this line being better than last year's once they get in synch.

Sage Rosenfels (here)

Thanks for the vote of confidence, KC. I'm here and ready to chat. Whoops! *drops laptop on the ground*

KC Joyner

  (4:24 PM)

Someone had to get a Sage Rosenfels joke in!

Brendan D (DC)

For this Dansby guy, how about "Dansby Destiny", or "Dirty Dans"

KC Joyner

  (4:24 PM)

Two thoughts on the Dansby question.

T.J. (Lock Haven)

How do you feel about Mike Wallace from Pittsburgh...he was a good deep threat last year, but do you think he can replace Santonio and produce the same way. Obviously not a number 1 yet, but maybe a solid 3 or flex guy?

KC Joyner

  (4:26 PM)

I grade WRs in 12 different metric categories in the guide. Wallace did a superb job in all but four of them and even in those others he was solid. Pittsburgh may be thinking he is a #1 WR, or at least he will be once he plays for a full season or so.

T.J. (Lock Haven)

I think 'Dansby's Dynasty' is the obvious solution for your fantasy name, bro.

KC Joyner

  (4:27 PM)

Another vote.

Luke (Chicago)

Karlos' Long Lost Brother

KC Joyner

  (4:27 PM)

And one more.

Jimmy N (DC)

KC, I OPENED the chat with my obligatory SAAAAGE comment! C'mon man. I would now like a refund on this year's guide, since you have hurt my feelings. Good day sir, good day.

KC Joyner

  (4:27 PM)

Jimmy, I didn't see it or else I would have posted it! Heck, I even tried to find a way to give you a mention in that Insider article (just couldn't come up with one that would fit).

Trent (WA)

Is Jacoby Jones poised for a breakout?

KC Joyner

  (4:29 PM)

It is a good possibility. He didn't see enough passes last year to be listed as a qualifier but he did a great job on the aerials he was thrown. That Houston offense knows how to get the ball downfield and that makes Jones a very good late in the draft pickup option.

Greg ( Boston)

I hate how everyone says Brady is still a top 2 or 3 quarterback. It seems to me only New England fans seem to notice that he hasn't been the perfect passer he used to be after the surgery, his stats may still be good but watching him weekly is just painfull compared to what he used to be.

KC Joyner

  (4:30 PM)

Greg, Brady had more than a few games last year where he looked like the Brady of old (i.e. the dominant Brady). Players often don't fully recover from surgery until 18-24 months have passed and that is exactly where Brady is now. I'm on the bandwagon of his having another dominant season.

Nick (Cincinnati)

Is there any hope that Carson Palmer can get back to the form and promise he once showed, or is he just average (or worse) since the injuries? Or is the offensive line more of the culprit of the bad passing offense last year?

KC Joyner

  (4:32 PM)

The issue for Palmer is that he doesn't have anyone who can beat top-line coverage. Cincinnati faces a brutal set of CBs this year and neither Owens nor Ochocinco did much of anything against red-rated CBs last year (check out the Insider article I wrote last week for more details). The Bengals are going to once again be a run-first team.

Craigory (NJ)

What are your thought on Robert Meachem? I'm high on him this year.

KC Joyner

  (4:33 PM)

He led the league in YPA last year. I'd have to be in agreement with your assessment.

Bob (Anderson, Ca)

Why are all the experts so high on megatron this year. He may be gifted but he has a young offense around him.

KC Joyner

  (4:35 PM)

I'm with you on this one in many ways, as Johnson's metrics last year were mediocre. I would point out, however, that he was injured last season, so that has something to do with the decrease in production.

Joe (Covington)

Am I making a huge mistake to target Ray Rice over AD, CJ, and MJD?

KC Joyner

  (4:36 PM)

I've got CJ #1 and Peterson

The Scarecrow (The Land of Oz)

Is it a no brainer to keep AP as a 1st round pick, versus Pro Bowler Steve Smith (NYG) as a 7th round pick? I know I couldnt get equal value in the 7th round for Smith, but I cant let AP go, decisions decisions. If I only had a brain...

KC Joyner

  (4:36 PM)

Unless you are in a PPR league, don't fret over Smith. His targets are all but certain to drop this year and that will reduce his value.

Zach (Bronx, NY)

What would you say about a strategy that says take (by draft/free agency) transcendent players wherever you can find them, and forget about getting certain key positions like CB, QB, Pass Rush. Okay maybe you get stuck without elite CB's, but you have a ton of elite S's, LB's, G's and RB's.

KC Joyner

  (4:38 PM)

I'm with you on this except for the QB spot. That position has to be filled by an elite player. If you get a chance, check out the book "GM" that came out a couple of years ago. It tells how Ernie Accorsi is of much of the same mindset.

Dansby (DC)

Thanks for the help everyone. Thanks to these chats I have now:1)gotten hair cut advice from KC2) named my fantasy team "Dansby Destiny"! Buy the guide everyone, it is a solid investment

KC Joyner

  (4:40 PM)

And if you are in Orlando, go get a haircut from Missy at the Regis in the Altamonte Mall. She makes TFS' hair look good and that is the true sign of a miracle worker!

Trent (WA)

Is Bernard Berrian as average as his stats from last year would indicate?

KC Joyner

  (4:41 PM)

He did poorly against every level of competition, so the answer would have to be yes.

Matt R (WI)

I'm in a custom league with friends where fumbles and interceptions are tons of points down the drain. Do i risk taking AP? or take someone like Michael Turner?

KC Joyner

  (4:42 PM)

I wouldn't worry too much about AP's fumbles. Yes, they are a concern, but his production more than makes up for it. Regarding Turner, I like his chances in 2010.

brian (de)

In a TD heavy league do you still rank Austin number 1? Which top receivers would move up or down in this format?

KC Joyner

  (4:42 PM)

I'll stick with my pick - Austin is #1 regardless of the type of league.

brian (de)

In a TD heavy league do you still rank Austin number 1? Which top receivers would move up or down in this format? Also will we be getting the updated cheatsheets emailed to us?

KC Joyner

  (4:43 PM)

Yes, the cheat sheet updates will be emailed.

T.J. (Lock Haven)

Is Aaron Rodgers a safer pick than Peyton Manning because he's got a better chance of not sitting out during the fantasy playoffs?

KC Joyner

  (4:43 PM)

I've got him rated higher than Manning because of his running ability. Rodgers puts up yards and TDs and that is something Manning simply isn't going to do.

Jason (Bmore)

Does Jermichael Finley's ability to flex out make him an even more attractive fantasy pick? Basically taking a TE but really getting the value of an WR?

KC Joyner

  (4:45 PM)

In the studies I've done on tight ends flexing out, they normally don't do well YPA-wise. The real fantasy value for tight ends comes from target volume. Finley could very well see 100 targets this year and that is the magic number for elite level at that position.

Shick (MD)

My freinds get on me for having 9 favorite teams. Surely with all the tape you watch, you are a fan of multiple teams. Who deserves the redicule KCJ, myself or my buddies?

KC Joyner

  (4:46 PM)

As long as you take the grief for when your teams lose as well as you take the kudos when they win, pulling for nine teams is OK.

Greg (Boston)

Is Julian Edelman worth a look in fantasy? He did good last year and with Welker out at least the first couple of weeks. he'll get more catches

KC Joyner

  (4:47 PM)

His productivity in many areas (depth routes, route types, etc.) was the near equal of Welker's last year. If Welker isn't back to full strength, or even if he is and NE wants to reduce his workload for a while, Edelman will see plenty of passes and will put up Welker-like numbers. I like him as a fantasy value pick.

Matt R (WI)

Donald Driver is getting up in age, but he's always working hard. Is he a safe#3 wr?

KC Joyner

  (4:48 PM)

He had five categories with double digit YPAs, so I'm all for him being a very good #3 fantasy WR.

Eric (Chicago)

Pulling for 9 teams is a cop out...one team and one team only, that's where your foundation should lie, for that one team through thick and thin. From Maryland, must have started to like the Redskins but faltered off after the brutal seasons.

KC Joyner

  (4:50 PM)

I'll put it this way. Before I did this job, I pulled for the Dolphins, Steelers and Raiders on a regular basis. I'd also pull for certain NFC teams (Dallas with Jimmy Johnson, the Giants under Parcells, etc.). Even with all of those other teams, I always pulled for Miami first. If they played the other teams, I rooted for a Fins victory. I'd agree you have to have a #1 team that overrules all others.

Chris (Montclair)

Hey KC, it was nice to hear you on the NFL Today podcast, I hope you can turn up across the media more. Keep up the good work!

KC Joyner

  (4:51 PM)

Hey there, I should also point out that I did spot on the Brian Kenny show on ESPN Radio last night. Had a really busy afternoon and haven't had a chance to post it on the site yet, but you can go to the ESPN Radio site and listen to it. We talk about the Brett Favre article.

Gorman (Baltimore, MD)

Come over to the Ravens Shick! Most of us are displaced Ravens fans who got a quick super bowl! Our lack of football know how is ok due to our extreme enthusiasm!

KC Joyner

  (4:52 PM)

Shick, you have an invite to go to the other side!

Vedhas (Moore, SC)

Loved your article on Favre/TJax/Sage, but I had a couple of questions about it. Why wouldn't overall YPA be a better indicator than vertical YPA? Not every pass will be a deep or bomb, so I'm still skeptical about how they will do overall compared to Favre. How do Tjax's/Sage's most recent YPAs compare to Favre's? I realize it will be a smaller sample size, but wouldn't that be more indicative of how they will fare this season?

KC Joyner

  (4:53 PM)

I focused on vertical YPA because, as Favre himself has indicated, that is the most valuable part of his game. Short pass YPA is often determined by how well the receiver can break tackles (either on quick passes to WRs or on screen to RBs). Vertical passing is much more determined by the QBs ability.

Phil K (DE)

Love your work KCJ. What do you reccomend to a fantasy league where the commish is being a bit of a tyrant? A sit-down talk, or a complete coup? Thanks.

KC Joyner

  (4:54 PM)

Hard to say. A sit down is normally the way to go but if you don't think that will work, the coup has to be considered. Just don't tell him (or her) I gave you that advice!

Trent (WA)

Mark Sanchez or Matt Stafford long term?

KC Joyner

  (4:55 PM)

Sanchez. I like his receivers and O line more than Stafford's.

brian (de)

If Dallas Clark is the clear number 1 then how high would you take him or with the depth of TE would you still wait to get a Finley or a Celek type?

KC Joyner

  (4:56 PM)

Clark is the only fantasy TE worth reaching for in the draft. I wouldn't pass up an elite or near-elite QB/WR/RB to get him but beyond that, he should be considered the top choice.

Fred (Colorado)

With all the negative talk about the Bills this year it's easy to write them all off. However someone up in Buffalo has to have a solid year, probably a RB. Do you see anyone being a solid contributer as a backup or #2 in Fantasy this year? Spiller or Evans? Maybe even Johnson who has looked good so far lining up as the #2 reciever in Camp?

KC Joyner

  (4:56 PM)

I've got Spiller and Fred Jackson both rated fairly high in the draft guide, so mark me down for those choices.

Mike (From Iowa)

KC, do you ever wonder how many of the people that post negative comments on your articles lack a basic understanding of statistical analysis or mathematics in general? Keep up the good work!

KC Joyner

  (4:58 PM)

That doesn't bother me as much as people who comment on the articles without reading them. They'll see the headline and then proceed to bash it rather than taking the time to actually read what I wrote. It should be a rule - don't slam the writer unless you have read the article.

KC Joyner

  (5:01 PM)

Well, our dinner of Italian sausage, skillet potatoes, corn on the cob and veggies is just about ready to go so I've got to run. Mrs. Scientist did want me to tell everyone that tomorrow's night dinner will be a family trip out to Hooter's (yes, Mrs. Scientist likes going there - loves their Philly cheesesteaks - I have the best wife in the world!) Before I go, I should once again mention the draft guide can be purchased at www.TheFootballScientist.com. You can also follow my work on Twitter at kcjoynertfs. Hope to see you all next week!