Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:00 AM)

Good morning everyone! Let's get right to your questions...

Matt ("Work")

Is Ellsbury going to be useful (top talent pre-injury) any time soon?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:02 AM)

Good question, because he's what, 0-for-16 since being activated? "Top talent" catches my eye in the wording of this question; there's a long way to go before he recaptures that form, which was essentially a top-25 player overall. I doubt it happens this season. Useful for fantasy? I'd give him another 10 days to two weeks before activating him, and I'd need to see more than just one good game. More like a good series. Pessimism is understandable.

trokenmatt (brooklyn, ny)

What can we expect from Carlos Delgado? Worth adding in AL-only?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

I'm adding him in my AL-only league (if I get the FAAB bid, that is, and I did put in only a modest bid), so that tells you a lot. It's a speculative pickup, and yes, I would make it. But Delgado has missed an awful lot of time, and probably projects as a platoon mate for Mike Lowell in the best-case scenario, and maybe only in the month of September. I'll say it's a 50/50 shot he's even up with the Red Sox this year, and then another 50/50 that he's even what he was in the past.

Korey (Baltimore)

Lowell worth adding? He is 3B eligible.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Sure. That's the guy I'd get of the Sox corner men.

Trent (Fresno)

What do you think of Paul Konerko for next year? He's getting up there in age and is in the last year of his contract - so is he playing for security or can we expect him to repeat?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:06 AM)

It's a tough one, and I know because I'm composing some keeper rankings and having a tough time deciding how far to push Konerko down from his current rank. I'm thinking he's borderline top 100 for next season; I'm tempted to say outside it rather than in it. He'll be 35 and who knows what his contract situation will be, so that contributes.

Jack (Boston)

START BUMGARNER TODAY?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

Home game and we can chalk up the bad outing to a Coors matchup, so yes, I would.

trokenmatt (brooklyn, ny)

When does Desmond Jennings come up? And does he start enough to contribute?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:08 AM)

To the first question: September 40-man roster expansion. To the second: 2011, and I don't think right out of the gate. Just watch Jennings be one of those let's-dodge-the-super-two-arbitration-status guys.

Goose (Chicago)

Trsitan, what are you doing with your Texas Rangers in points leagues this week?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

Most likely I'm sitting them, except in the case of the obvious don't-sit-a-star-with-five-games-for-a-stiff-with-seven. These are "tiebreaker" kinds of things for decision-making.

Aryeh (NJ)

Who do you think has a better year from here on out, Felix or Oswalt? Would you trade one to get the other?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

Different pitchers categorically speaking. I think Felix Hernandez will be the safer ratio play and Roy Oswalt will be the bigger winner. People who know me I don't give much of a hoot about wins, because quality pitching will win ballgames, so give me King Felix.

Brian (Lansing, MI)

Will J.P.Arencibia get most of the starts at catcher in Toronto? Should I start him this week in a 12 team mix league? Or should I wait another week?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

One thing to think about: Jose Molina has caught each of Brandon Morrow's past 12 starts, so it's clear that's a personal-catcher arrangement and the primary reason Molina played over Arencibia on Sunday. I think Arencibia gets the next start, and the majority of them this week, so if you're in a 12-team two-catcher league, yes, I'd activate him.

Andrew (Atlanta)

Wh gets more at bats the rest of the year after Prado/Bay return from the DL, Omar "All Star" Infante or Angel Pagan?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

If Angel Pagan hasn't earned the right to start practically every day, I don't know what will get him that. It's him; Infante is such an ideal utilityman, starts a couple times a week, appears off the bench frequently. I think he goes right back to that.

Jeff (SF)

Need to ask this question but can't make it to today's chat (damn 8 AM work meeting!):Keep Youkilis or C. Santana for next year? I need to drop one now.Thanks TC!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

That's a needs question, but in terms of straight rankings, I'm going to have Kevin Youkilis ranked higher of the two for 2011, and it's not as close as you think.

Chuck (NYC)

Should i bother keeping Joel Hanrahan on my roster in a 12 team mixed?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

Depends upon how badly you need the saves. Guys in his position can often rack up the saves in bunches when their teams get hot -- which happens from time to time (look at Dotel) -- but I know it's frustrating to own a closer on a losing team. The right answer here is "yes," but some situations will dictate there's a better use for the spot.

Kyle (NYC)

Can you predict how many starts Hellickson makes in the majors from here on out?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

Well, there are 51 more Rays games, so that's about 10-11 turns of the rotation, so I think Jeremy Hellickson should get, say, seven. The shoulder issues of Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis seem likely enough to create some openings for Hellickson. At the bare minimum, I'm sure the Rays would prefer to take it easy on those two, while also getting a look at Hellickson to see if he could be a playoff contributor.

Jeff (Atlanta, GA)

Hey Tristan....Chris Carter was called up by Oakland to replace Daric Barton. Is he worth a pick up in a 10-team keeper league? I picture him as a Carlos Pena type player....HR, RBI, and a really low average.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

Well, first of all, this is not the Chris Carter of the Mets, it's the one with the higher ceiling among prospects. He was in the Dan Haren deal of a few years back. I think that's a somewhat fair assessment; Carter is a bit of a three-true-outcomes player, lots of walks, plenty of K's, good power. I'd absolutely pick him up. He's here to play. Probably doesn't hit as many homers as a healthy Pena could, but maybe has three-quarters the production with a slightly higher average.

Tom Tuttle (Tacoma)

Is Wuertz locked in as the A's closer until (if?) Bailey returns or might we see Breslow or others mixed in?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

I'd say so, yes, though don't be shocked by the rare situational opportunity where two tough lefty hitters are due up in the ninth, earning Breslow the nod. Your investment should clearly be in the Michael Wuertz basket, though.

josh (ma)

Thoughts on Mike Minor?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

Exceptional prospect, thrived in the high minors, I'm on that bandwagon. Look at the K rate: Over 10 per nine everywhere he has pitched. I'd say the basement for him, statistically speaking, is what Brian Matusz did last year. First thing that comes to mind as a ceiling is Tommy Hanson, but he's a righty, feels awkward. In terms of fantasy impact, I could see it happening, though.

Mike (Indy)

Are the Braves ever going to be able to score some runs and get Tommay Hanson some wins?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

Speaking of Hanson...And to that all I can say is, "Sigh, wins."

Matt (Chinatown)

CarGo. Wow. I mean, wow. Anyway, I play in a fairly shallow league and easily the category I can make up the most ground in the fastest is wins. Should I be streaming two start pitchers every week? No innings cap and my ratios are fairly safe. To that end, should I start Jaime Garcia over win-starved Tommy Hanson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

OK, since wins is a popular topic today, let's talk a little strategy here. First of all, on the aside, yes, how about that with Carlos Gonzalez? Must've lit a fire under him with my recent "Hit Parade." Anyway, back to wins: If you're ABSOLUTELY SAFE in ratios, and just need to move up in wins, yes, you need to play for quantity, and almost solely quantity (with obvious exceptions, like saying "oh boy, let me start Jeff Karstens!"). You can try to convince me until you're blue in the face that you can pinpoint win potential from matchup to matchup, but I don't buy it; play the best possible starters you can as often as you possibly can. Best I can advise you; more chances to win is going to mean more wins. Period.

Mike Napoli (LA)

Why am I not playing everyday?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:28 AM)

Beats me. Mediocre defense? Only logical explanation. You'd be in my everyday lineup, that's for sure. Underrated talent.

Dave (Philly)

Smoak or Wallace (or C Davis) in a keeper league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

I think Justin Smoak has the best career of the bunch and Brett Wallace has the best 2011.

Aaron (Springfield)

Is Jesus Montero the best hitter (avg, obp, and slg) in the minors?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

Tough to say that definitively off the top of my head. In my opinion, sure makes as good a case as anyone. Though Mike Trout's pretty darned good. So is Mike Moustakas.

Jaime Garcia (St. Louis)

Is it correction time for me?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

A little bit, yes, not to mention a bit of fatigue/innings cap time, where we have to wonder what kind of volume he's going to offer from week to week or start to start. But if a 4.22 ERA and 7.17 K's per nine are the downside (and those are his second-half numbers), I don't think people have a huge right to complain, productive as he has been to date.

Mark (Ocean City)

When can we expect to see your keeper rankings previously mentioned?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

Later in the day.

josh (ma)

Mike Minor Or Jeremy Hellickson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

Minor. Take the "right now," take the division he pitches in.

Steve (NY)

rank these OF for next year Kemp, Rios, Young, Cruz

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

I'm going to assume that is Chris Young, in which case push him to the back of this quartet and that's the right order.

Patrick (ABQ)

On the topic of wins, is V. Padilla a good two start pitcher this week? He has two tough match-ups on the road against Phi and Atl but I'm inclined to start him because of his era, k/bb ratio.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

OK, all due respect to Vicente Padilla for how he has performed thus far as a Dodger, but the fact remains that he's noticeably more productive in home games as opposed to road. From that angle, there's risk here, and I'd be iffy, only using him if I was desperate for volume and lacked quality alternatives. He's borderline; the kind of guy I'd prefer in NL-only and deep mixed, but not shallow formats.

Sam (Cincy)

I get to keep 5 and 4 are a lock. I know it's a bit early, but I'm already thinking of 2011 - what do you think of Jaime Garcia as a keeper for $6? Thanks!!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

Keeper.

Pete (Work)

Speaking of CarGo... Where does he rank among OFs now and in 2011 and beyond. I don't think there are any OFs I would rather have the rest of this year except maybe Jose Bautista (WOW)

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

I'd take Carlos Gonzalez so quickly over Jose Bautista. Gonzalez has a legitimate case for top-25 status in 2011 and beyond, but I maintain my stance that I worry he's not going to maintain a .300 batting average. I see a decent chance he turns into Adrian Gonzalez, not that there's anything wrong with that.

Curt (MI)

Trade Posey 4 Reynolds?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

What format? About the only way I see this being a reasonable deal is if you desperately need home runs in an NL-only league.

owner (wi)

Swap Howard for Cargo in a keeper?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

Yes, and it's primarily a matter of replaceability.

Chris (Dallas)

Romero, Volquez or Morrow for the year?Thanks for all your help this year Tristan!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

Every one has questions, and the obvious answer to most is going to be the one who has made the most recent headlines. To be fair, Brandon Morrow would've been my choice on Saturday, too, but now people are going to feel like it's more obvious.

Mark (State College, PA)

When Utley comes back, will his thumb hurt his production?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

I covered that several weeks back and have some concerns about his rehab -- those being that I haven't been overwhelmed by his progress -- but Utley did have a similar issue in the past and bounced back nicely. I'm not about to doubt him now.

Brandon Morrow (Toronto)

I should be owned in ALL leagues and formats. Yesterday was not a fluke!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

Even Brandon Morrow loves himself. (Though he has every right to.)

Dan (DC)

Liriano AND Lester for Ubaldo....who wins

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

First two.

Chance (College Park, MD)

Time to give up on Carlos Beltran?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

The problem with such a question: He has shown already that the answer is "yes," but the problem is that for every game removed from his injury, the more likely he'll improve. So you'll drop him, and then he'll improve, albeit slightly, and then you'll think it's time to hop BACK onto the bandwagon. I said in a column a month or so back that I saw .280-25-100-0 potential for a healthy Beltran, prorated to remaining games (so a half-season, .280-12-50 type numbers). I'm adjusting those: If he's .265-6-30-0 the rest of the way, you should be very, very happy, and understand how so-so those numbers are.

Dave (San Francisco)

I have a chance to swap Billy Butler for Adam Dunn. My trade partner and I are both out of contention so this is really a keeper swap. Both contracts end after the 2012 season.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

I'd rather have Dunn. So much more predictable, his power potential. We're still waiting for Butler's.

Brice (Knoxville)

Where is Evan Longorias power? His HR numbers are pretty disappointing.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:46 AM)

Swallowed up by the catwalks, probably. I kid, I kid. Truth is, there's little in his peripherals I dislike, and the first thing I point to with the diminished power is this: He has a 10.8 home run/fly ball percentage, down from 17.6 in 2009, 16.1 for his career and not at all in line with a legit, big-time slugger. I think a lot of it is bad luck -- buying opportunity?

Justin (Boston)

About keepers, would you always take a hitter if you are allowed 5 keepers? I am wondering if you would say take King Kelix over C. Santana?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

I've said for well over a year now that pitching deserves a lot more respect from us as a fantasy baseball whole in keeper leagues. I don't even think that's a contest; I'm taking King Felix all the way.

Jan (Boston)

Start Lester today? On a bad roll + facing the evil empire on the road...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

It's effectively a must-win game for the Red Sox. I believe Jon Lester is up to that.

Jeff (Jacksonville)

Is it safe to say that Ryan Zimmerman is the best fantasy 3B in the MLB?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

No, but it's a legitimate try. I still prefer David Wright and Evan Longoria, and it's so darned close between those two, A-Rod and Zimmerman at this point.

Brett (DC)

Where is Colby Rasmus on your radar for keepers? Seems to have improved his Avg, SLG, and OBP pretty substantially...also will be hitting behind Pujols and Holliday for the foreseeable future. Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

He's going to rank a lot higher than people probably expect I'll have him. He's unquestionably top 100, and I forget exactly where I had him. You'll just have to wait and find out!

Josh Hamilton (Arlington, Texas)

You think it's about time to rank me in the top five? At some point, you've got to accept that worrying about a phantom inury is not worth ignoring fantasy league winning stats. Ranking me outside the top ten for the balance of the season is a travesty. It took AJ's bizarre momentum ranks to even push me into the eight spot. Isn't it time to get a little love from you?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

I can't remember where I had Hamilton, but to be fair to him, he's proving to me that he's capable of staying healthy, sure. The worry I had when I ranked him lower earlier in the year is that he has done this before, tear off a monster first half, then decline after the break. Still don't know the precise spot I'll have him in "Hit Parade" -- we'll have to see -- but I bet it'll be pretty decent a ranking. Keeper-wise, though, I still have some slight health worries for him in the long haul.

Nick D. (New York)

Really like Luke Scott this week. Pretty much all righties and he's hot. Thoughts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

The only thing not to like is that they're all road games, and he traditionally rakes at Camden Yards. AJ's comment about Scott's lifetime numbers against his Indians opponents makes me agree with you, though.

Jeff (Atlanta, GA)

I say everyone should stop worrying about their keepers for 2011 and try to win their freaking league. ;)

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

Fair point, and I'm not going to bust on those people planning ahead in keeper formats -- there comes a time where it's time to throw in the towel -- but I will say that I think a lot of people are indeed too quick to give up. Make sure you've given the decision careful thought before you make it, is all I'll say.

Brian (NYC)

Last try...Simon Alfredo or Mike Gonzalez closing in Sept?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

I still say Simon. Nothing there to suggest to me that a change is needed, though I could've easily said that about the Brewers bullpen and it sure looks like Trevor Hoffman's back getting at least half of the save chances, probably because of the silly quest for 600 lifetime saves.

Chris (Dallas)

If things line up the same and Morrow pitches every fifth day, his upcoming schedule will look like the following: @LAA, @BOS, vs. NYY, vs. DET, @TB, @NYY, TEX. Still like him for the year over guys like Minor or Hellickson?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

Look at Morrow's June. All I can say.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

Actually, no, that's a lie: I can also say that look at who he just faced.

bob (los Angeles )

De la Rosa ,Mazzaro, Harden. Rest of the way?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

I'll take Jorge de la Rosa, but let's take the opportunity here to point out that Vin Mazzaro does have some AL-only/matchups appeal. Don't dismiss him outright.

David (CA)

Delmon Young or Werth rest of year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

Delmon's legit. He's my pick.

Trevor Cahill (Oakland)

Can I be started on the road, or am I still just a guy to start at home?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

Cahill on the road: 5-2, 3.55 ERA, 1.01 WHIP in 10 starts, 3 quality starts in his past 4 road games. I'm not sure why you wouldn't have already been starting him on the road. Surely you should by now.

john (seattle)

Care to predict a line for Delmon next year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

I could completely see a .315-25-110-5 line coming from Delmon Young in 2011. I think his batting average this year might be slightly high (though not by much), and the power should continue to slowly grow.

Jeff (Atlanta, GA)

I read yesterday that Trevor Hoffman may get more closing opportunities down the stretch? Will that significantly affect Axford's value? I'm sure Milwaukee wants Hoffman to reach 600 saves before the season is over b/c they really have nothing else to play for this season.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

That's what I've taken from the Brewers' closer situation. I'm not going to say I like it -- John Axford deserves that job -- but that's the way it seems, so prepare accordingly.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

OK, let's take two more for today...

Pat (NY)

What wbout Dice- K great #'s since May.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

He's got a 2.98 ERA in his past 10 starts (since June 1), and I've got nothing against Dice-K. Good starter. Not necessarily a clear top-25 guy, but I'd keep riding that streak.

jay (columbus, oh)

Andre Ethier...big numbers the rest of the way?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

Not like before the DL stint, no. Ethier is hitting .264 with six homers in 32 games since July 1, which are good but hardly great numbers. I think he's a little more valuable than that, like a .285 hitter with 10 homers the rest of the way, but that's still not what Ethier's owners have come to expect. I wonder whether he's quite his usual self.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

OK, time to wrap things up for today. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I didn't get to yours. Best of luck to you this week!