Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Hello! Before I get started, I should mention that this week's TFS Insider articles include reviews of four underrated fantasy football prospects, South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia (and why Spurrier is riding his case so much), Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett (could be just as good as Tebow) and the Minnesota Vikings (they need more than Favre's return to get to the Super Bowl). Now let's talk some football!
Brian Evans (French Lick)
I am a colts fan so I kinda felt obliged to pick up Addai as a third back on my fantasy team, was it a waste, considering I have AP and Shonn Greene?
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
It could be if Donald Brown gets more carries. Brown toppped Addai in the good blocking YPA category by more than two yards, so the odds are good he'll get more PT this year.
jshon smith ((piscatway nj))
do you think is wrong with percy harvin
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
To paraphrase an old Star Trek line - I'm a football scientist, not a doctor! But seriously, I hope he's OK. It sounds like a really somber situation.
Harlan (Dallas, Texas)
When working on your metrics to evaluate players, do you make an allowance for missed games? Specifically, how does the fact that Albert Haynesworth last played more than 12 games in 2002 impact his ratings and metrics? Or does that fact enter into it at all?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
I focus more on the volume of plays by the player than the number of missed games.
Dustin (Washington, D.C.)
If we could redo the 2007 draft, would Revis go #1, or would it be ADP, Patrick Willis or Joe Thomas? Is your answer telling of his actual vs. perceived worth?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
I'm not at all certain Revis would be as dominant with another team as he is with the Jets. He'd still be one of the top picks of a re-done draft but he might not be the #1 choice depending on which team had the top pick.
I keep hearing how easy of a run schedule FGore has, based on this, would you draft him above MJD and RRice?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
I have him rated as the #3 RB in my fantasy football draft guide (which, by the way, can be purchased at www.thefootballscientist.com).
SprungOnSports (Long Island)
How much will Mike Martz improve Jay Cutler, especially his bad decision rate if at all?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Cutler has said that a high interception total could be in the cards this year, so I wouldn't expect the bad decision rate to drop. The Martz/Cutler pairing will be a success if Martz can get Cutler's YPA to increase. It has been dropping for three years now and last year was at a subpar level.
The just married BSB [via mobile]
Which round do you normally draft your backup qb?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Congrats on the wedding, Broad Street! Are you participating in a chat on your honeymoon? Regarding backup QBs, I don't start looking at backups until I have my starters in place. Other than kicker and D/ST, you'll want to have every other starting position filled before going for a backup.
KING Kevin Ryan (Austin, TX)
So more on ASO vs. Revis. ASO was only thrown against 28 times last year compared to 111 for Revis. To me that seems like teams are either more scared to throw ASO's way or they feel like they can complete passes against Revis as apposed to ASO.What's the truth between these two great CBs?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
I think Asomugha would do just as well in the NY defense as Revis. I also think Revis would be avoided if he didn't play in a Rex Ryan offense. Check out the article I wrote a couple of weeks back about Revis for more details - ex-Jet LB Greg Buttle had some interesting comments as to why Revis' target level is so high.
Gorman (Baltimore, MD)
Hi KCJ. What does the tape tell about the beat-up Ravens secondary? What kind of YPA can we expect with many backups playing significant snaps? Thanks as always.
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Baltimore is in bad shape. Fabian Washington had terrible metrics last year. They don't have much of anyone else other than maybe Chris Carr, and Carr is more of a safety.
Kevin (Warrenton, VA)
Hey KC! Your stuff is great and very informative. Two questions for you, first who will be the most productive Redskin RB and two what are you thoughts on Jamaal Charles?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
The most productive Washington RB will be whoever is healthiest at the time. Charles was in the top three in the league in good blocking YPA, so I'm very sold on his 2010 prospects.
Just a shout-out to the regulars that make this chat what it is... Gorman, BSB, Angry Mike, Craig from Montclair, Phil K, Dansby... and of course you KCJ- the master.
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
I couldn't agree more! You can also add Lane and J from Milwaukee (and a number of others).
BSB [via mobile]
Mrs Broad Street loves football, but the honeymoon is not the best place to talk gridiron stuff. We're home. A.bradshaw or ryan matthews?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
I am glad to hear you say that. She's a winner and to make her suffer through football on a honeymoon would not have been a good thing. I'll take Matthews over Bradshaw.
Jimmy N (Arlington, VA)
KCJ,nooooooooooooo! nooooo!!! This was suppposed to be the time! This was MY year! the year of SAAAAAAAAAAAGE!!! Why KCJ, why?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
You see what you did, Brett Favre? Now we have to talk Jimmy off of the ledge.
Hey KC, what are your thoughts on the Browns defense? I am too close and to heavily invested in thinking they are the best defense in the league...kidding of course, but I am very optimistic about the Browns defense. Am I a stupid Browns fan or do I have a reason to feel optimistic? Thanks KC!!!
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
I have Cleveland as a sleeper candidate in the fantasy draft guide. Mangini knows how to playcall sacks, they have an improved secondary and a favorable schedule. Wouldn't call them a top-10 team yet but they'll rank closer to that than they will the bottom 10.
KC, what do your metrics tell you on the year's expected from Garcon and Nicks?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Both of them had quality metrics. Nicks' were better but there is plenty of reason to think Garcon is on the verge of a breakout campaign.
KC, would your book help my pickem league or just FF? How about a student discount?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
The guide is ostensibly aimed towards a fantasy audience but it has plenty of useful information that can be used in other environments.
Peyton Manning [via mobile]
Why didn't you include me as one of the people who makes this chat so great? KC, we haven't been communicating well and I feel left in the dark.
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
I just can't win on this, can I?!
Brett (san antonio, tx)
What has your research shown you on Julian Edelman? Is he a stud in the making? What if he was the lead slot guy on another team such as the Saints?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
Edelman posted numbers that were nearly as good as Welker's. I'm not saying he'll be the equal of #83 but he has the ability to get close enough where the Patriots won't have to force Welker back into the lineup before he's physically ready.
Phil K (Dundalk, MD)
KCJ, one aspect of the Ravens D you missed is their recent trade for CB Doug Dutch. You may not have much NFL tape on him, but I assure if you go back to his Gonzaga HS game film you will see he is a player.
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
Consider this duly noted. I'm not sure how much credence I would give to HS tape, however.
Brett (san antonio, tx)
What kind of year can we expect from Chaz Schilens if he stays healthy?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
Given the improvement in QB play for Oakland, I'd say he has the chance for a very solid campaign.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
KC, I can't believe you like Collinsworth and Simms - they're two of the most annoying analysts out there. Do you have any metrics that back up your praise of these guys?
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
The metric I use is how often I take a note down during one of their games. For many commentators, I almost never have to write a note because they don't say anything that isn't already generally known. CC, Simms and the ESPN crew all do that.
Craig (Montclair, NJ)
Umm, how many kids does Antonio Cromartie have according to last night's Hard Knocks? How many of them are 3 years old?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
I was less worried about his volume of offspring than I was the fact that he missed those potential interceptions. If he snags passes like that during the season, NY will be one step closer to seeing a successful life without Revis.
When you engage in trade talks with other fantasy owners, do you purposely throw bad ones out there to "get the conversation started" or do you get right to it with legit, fair offers?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
I never like to throw out a bad trade offer because it might make the other owner think that I don't respect his/her intelligence. I'll make a lowball offer but never one that is so bad it won't be taken seriously.
Kevin (Warrenton, VA)
KC, what do your metrics say about Johnny Knox and Devin Aromoshodo?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Both of them had good metrics last year but I hesitate to use them as barometers of 2010 performance because the Martz offense is so timing heavy. A WR can do well in one system and then join the Martz O and not do as well simply because it can be a hard offense to adjust to.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
Wow. I didn't realize you actually had an "announcer metric." I figured you just liked their style (which I don't). I guess that's why you're the football scientist and I'm not. haha
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Well, some of it is stylistic appreciation as well. Or, to put it another way, there are some announcers who may not tell me much but at least they seem to be enjoying the game. I'll take that over any announcer whose sole purpose is to tell us all about himself. Those guys make me want to throw something at the television.
Victor Cruz (Albany)
How many people are going to draft me because of one great pre-season game, only to realize that my main role will be special teams?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
One spotlight on Hard Knocks and the guy's fantasy football ownership percentage shoots upward. I'll bet he lands on at least 5-10% of teams in the next week.
BW (Powhatan, VA)
How do you feel about Brandon Jacobs this year? He could potentially be a steal in my draft.
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Fridays are supposed to be the fantasy chat day but the overwhelming bulk of questions coming in right now are fantasy related, so I'll start answering more of those (when in Rome, right?). Not that sold on Jacobs because a) the Giants receiving corps could be on the verge of being great and b) his good blocking YPA last year was mediocre.
Brett (san antonio, tx)
Do you think Darren Sproles could be a solid starter next year if Chargers let him go or is he better suited in a complementary role?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
I think SD thinks of him as a complementary back. Barring an injury to Matthews, Sproles might be stuck in that role.
Vince Young (Nashville)
Am I really better than Cutler? I know he has a better arm but I win more and my YPA is improving while his is declining
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
I've said it many times but it bears repeating. Pro-rate Young's eight game stretch last year over the course of a full season and he's a top 10 fantasy football QB. I'm not saying to take him as a top 10 QB but he's got tremendous upside as a #2 or
Shane (Los Angeles, CA)
KCJ: KCJ: Just finished up my first real draft here on ESPN, 12-man team, standard lineups/scoring with a flex position. Drafting 8th, my first four picks were Turner, Gore, Greene, and Mathews. Which RB do you think will have a hot start and I should look at trading before the mid point for a top WR? My starting WRs are Crabtree and Bowe.
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Shane, who in the world are you drafting with? If you got Turner, Gore, Greene and Matthews to go along with Crabtree and Bowe, you ought to win this league hands down (assuming you have a decent QB). I'd keep all four unless you can trade one for a truly elite WR.
Mary Lynn (Georgia)
Will LeSean McCoy break 1500 yds this year?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
Yards from scrimmage, very likely so. Rushing yards, I'd bet not.
Based on your metrics, who will have a bigger fantasy year at QB: Schaub or Romo? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
Too close to call. I have them rated right next to one another on the draft guide QB cheat sheet list. Quick note on that front - I will be working on an update to the cheat sheets and charts from the draft guide this evening. It will go out either tonight or tomorrow (just depends on how long the update takes).
Brett (san antonio, tx)
How much college scouting have you done on the QBs for next year. Jake Locker screams face of a franchise to me and I love Christian Ponder. I know Luck and Keenum could be solid too. Thoughts?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
I'll almost certainly be taking a look at each of those players this season either for the draft or for the college football articles. In other words, I'll have to get back to you on this one!
Can either of the Colts backs have a successful year behind that line? Are they really that bad at run blocking?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
Donald Brown topped the seven yard mark in good blocking YPA last year. That is an elite total (albeit on only 78 carries) and means that it isn't the quality of the Indy O line that is causing their running game to falter - it has a lot to do with Joseph Addai's backfield dance moves.
Mike (Danbury, CT)
What do you think about the metrics for Alex Smith? J-K I figured we'd gone too long without an Alex Smith question.... Whats Mrs. Scientist got cooking for dinner tonight?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
I can only imagine how much grief I am going to take if he doesn't pan out this year. I just hope I get some credit if he plays well. Regarding Mrs. Scientist, she's out and about right now, so I'm not sure about the dinner plans. Might make it a night out (although probably not another Hooters trip because I have the update to do).
In a 6 points TD league across the board, do you take a QB with the 6th pick or someone like Tunrer/Gore? Aren't you afraid that Westbrook will steal some of Gores tunder, dropping him from your number 3 rankings....?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
I probably go QB at the #6 spot in a six point TD league. Regarding Gore, I just don't see Westbrook having a huge impact. Gore will still get 350 touches even with BW in the SF backfield.
Darryl (Fullerton (CA))
I love reading your articles. Yet I find the metrics don't give a good idea for the outcome of the game. Players get hurt, teams seems to show urgency only a certain moments in the game (i.e. 2/3 of the way through the 3rd Quarter). So even though metrics are nice and may be beneficial to fantasy football, how can it measure effort, heart and desire?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
Darryl, I take the Bill James approach to intangibles. They absolutely matter but in the long run they should show up in the stats. If someone has more heart but doesn't run/pass/block/tackle better than someone with less heart, one has to wonder how much that extra heart is worth.
Do the Jets have any depth at all?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
I'd be a bit worried about their dime CB depth. Coleman got beat in the preseason game and that isn't the first time he's struggled. That could be where the Revis absence hurts most.
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Fitz was already in round two on my list before the injury. Not sure I'd drop him that much lower but it is another in a variety of fantasy football concerns for #11.
Jeff (NY, NY)
How many teams really have quality dime CB's? There is a reason most 4th string CB's are the 4th string.
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Very few but if Revis is in the lineup, NY would actually be in good shape there. Revis #1, Cromartie
dean (west richland)
what do you think about Ronnie Brown this year?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
A 6.6 good blocking YPA is a good number. He's in the top 25 RBs on the TFS 2010 Draft Guide.
Robert (Huntsville, Al)
Hey K.C. better late then...eh, that's just corny. Why is hype such a strong force in the NFL? I seriously doubt the people are TV are so uneducated that they have to make general rationalizations about players based on reputation, but it seems like that is the case sometimes. If you are a "name" you remain a name no matter how bad you may actually be. I give Chad Johnson and L.T. as prime examples. When was the last time either of them were good?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Corny or not, it's good to have you back in the chat! Regarding why big name players keep getting coverage, it's because the time between when a player starts to decline and when that decline is recognized by the general public tends to be separated by a year or two.
Guy drafting in front of me picked Brady after he already had Romo, leaving me with Eli in the 6th. Will his injury have lasting effects during the early part of the season? Is Sanchez, Cassell, or Campbell worth a waiver wire pickup?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
You'll be OK with Eli. Regarding the other three, I'd probably go Sanchez, Cassel and then Campbell, although Campbell could end up being the best of the bunch.
Shane (Los Angeles, CA)
KCJ: On that note, who is the most overhyped player coming into the 2010 season?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Wow, hard to say. I might go with Boldin if only because he was a very good WR in Arizona but never quite as good as Fitz, and yet it seems as if people expect him to post Fitz-like numbers in Baltimore.
Steve (Grand Island, NY)
Buffalo Bills fan here. It seems the concerns on CJ Spiller are that he wasn't a workhorse back in college and he's not the biggest guy. Do you think he can handle a full workload at his size, a la Chris Johnson, Marshall Faulk? Or do you think he'll have a similar career to Reggie Bushs' so far?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
I'd lean closer to the first extreme.
Robert (Huntsville, Al)
I know you are high on Floyd since he put up similar numbers to Jackson, but how much of that is due to Jackson on the other side? Or do both benefit from Gates in the middle?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Floyd did a great job in just about every sub-metric category, so the odds are he really is that good.
How much stock do you place in the preseason? They aren't exactly opening up the playbook out there. But I assume it has some worthwhile info
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
It's rather like a job interview process - half of the first round of interviews are designed to cull out the obvious can't cut it candidates. If someone on the bubble isn't stepping their game up now, it's a good indicator they aren't going to do so when the games really count.
KC, Do you exam long term numbers or just last years? In the case of a guy like Floyd has he always had good numbers or could last year have been a fluke?
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
I go more with volume of attempts and level of competition faced to gauge the performance of someone like Floyd. His 2009 season could be a fluke but his numbers were so good it is more likely he'll at least be a solid WR. Well, it's been a fast and fun hour but I've got to figure out dinner plans with Mrs. Scientist. Before I go, I do want to mention that the draft guide is available at www.thefootballscientist.com and to reiterate that updates to that guide will be going out soon. Hope to see you all in tomorrow's fantasy football chat at 4 PM EDT!