Chat with Brad Edwards
Welcome to SportsNation! On Monday, resident BCS expert Brad Edwards will drop by to chat about what the latest BCS standings mean to the nation's top teams going forward.
Send your questions now and join Brad Monday at 11:30 a.m. ET!
More Brad Edwards: Chats
If Auburn continues to win out, is there any chance they will drop in the computer rankings?
Brad Edwards (11:36 AM)
Not sure if there's any chance they could drop at any particular point in the season, but I have no doubt Auburn will finish No. 1 in the computers if they go undefeated.
alden (auburn,AL) [via mobile]
How long will auburn stay at the top spot? And if they do fall to someone, who will it be?
Brad Edwards (11:42 AM)
Although I think Auburn would finish as the No. 1 team in the computers, I don't think Auburn will hold on to No. 1 in the BCS if Oregon keeps winning. The Ducks will get better in the computers over the next few weeks, and they'll move to the BCS top spot if still unbeaten.
Chris Harvey (Aurora)
Where was Auburn ranked in the BCS last week? Why is it that Oregon doesn't get the respect they deserve?
Brad Edwards (11:45 AM)
Auburn was fourth last week, and the "disrespect" for Oregon comes only from the BCS computers. Can a computer disrespect someone? Oregon is a commanding No. 1 in both polls, so the human element has more respect for Oregon than any other team.
Brad Edwards (11:47 AM)
While we're discussing Auburn and Oregon, let me add that I think we're at a point where two teams probably "control their destiny" in the BCS race. I can't see either Auburn or Oregon falling out of the top two if they win out, but the pressure of being No. 1, whether in the BCS or the polls, will make that difficult.
Marc (Charlotte, North Carolina)
If Alabama beats Auburn and finishes with just 1 loss, please tell us all that there is no way Alabama leap frogs Boise State/TCU. Thanks.
Brad Edwards (11:50 AM)
If Alabama finishes 12-1 (including the SEC Championship Game) and gives Auburn its only loss, I think there's a better than average chance the Tide will leap Boise and TCU/Utah. My prediction is that Bama will end up higher in the computers than those teams and will close the gap in the polls enough to make that jump possible ... if not probable.
Everyone already assumes Boise will get leap frogged by at least one 1-loss team, maybe two. If BSU doesn't get in this year, is it safe to assume they will never get there?
Brad Edwards (11:55 AM)
I would assume that. I realize the non-AQ teams have made tremendous strides in recent years, in terms of the respect they're now getting from voters, but if a team that is preseason top 5 can't finish in the top 2 in a year when every team that began ahead of them lost a game, I can't imagine what circumstances would allow it to ever happen. That said, TCU would've played Alabama in last season's BCS title game if Texas had missed the field goal on the final play of the Big 12 Championship Game, so it's clearly not impossible.
Derrick (Salt Lake City)
In 2 weeks, Utah hosts TCU. Will the winner of that game have a chance at jumping Boise St. in the standings?
Brad Edwards (11:58 AM)
This may not seem logical, but I don't think Utah has the same upside as TCU. My gut feeling is that voters won't elevate them to TCU's spot, so I don't think they have the same potential within the BCS Standings. Unfortunately for Utah, Navy already embarrassed Notre Dame, so even following up a win over TCU with a drubbing of the Irish would have minimal impact.
Cory (Geneva, IL)
TCU is with thousandths of Boise St. Assuming both win out, won't TCU jump them by the end due to their SOS down the stretch vs. Boise's?
Brad Edwards (12:02 PM)
All things being equal, it will stay really tight between those teams. What may ultimately decide which one finishes higher in the BCS is whether one of them takes its foot off the gas and plays a close game against a weaker opponent down the stretch. Most fans are focused on this Boise State vs TCU battle in the BCS Standings because of the potential for one to reach the national title game, but let's not forget that even if they don't finish top two, the higher-ranked team between them will get an automatic BCS bid, while the other will be left to hope for an at-large invitation. It's a significant race.
Jim Crozier (Boise, Idaho)
Hey Brad, thanks for chatting. If Hawaii and Nevada are ranked when BSU plays them, will BSU wins be enough to hold off TCU in the BCS rankings if TCU beats Utah? Those two teams are just outside the Top-25 now.
Brad Edwards (12:05 PM)
The fact that Hawaii, Nevada and Fresno are all respectable teams that won't kill Boise's computer numbers is a positive for the Broncos. But don't fool yourself into thinking many voters will be impressed if BSU runs up a big score on them. The national opinion is that Boise should trounce every team in the WAC, whether that's realistic or not.
Oscar (Los Angeles)
Is USC factored into the BCS and then simply taken out, or are they not even imputed into the computers?
Brad Edwards (12:07 PM)
Even though the Trojans can't be ranked in the coaches' and Harris polls, USC is still a part of the computer rankings (ranked in the 20s by all of them this week), so it doesn't hurt Oregon in the BCS. In fact, the computers (and maybe most humans), will consider USC to be the second-best team Oregon has played so far this year, behind Stanford.
Given that BSU is already falling behind some of the 1-loss teams in the computers, is there really any way they would end top 2 other than having even the 1-loss teams lose again?
Brad Edwards (12:12 PM)
It's going to be extremely difficult for Boise to finish in the top two of the computer rankings, which makes it almost impossible for the Broncos to end up in the BCS top two without being No. 1 in at least one of the polls. Think about that. Boise State will need to be ranked No. 1 in the nation by the humans to have a chance to play for the national title. Sounds like a stretch, but if the upsets keep happening at this rate, maybe it could happen.
Billy (The Bob)
Do you see the additions of championship games in the Big 10 and PAC-12 hurting the SEC as strongest conference?
Brad Edwards (12:16 PM)
The championship game, on several occasions, has helped an SEC team with one loss (LSU had two in '07) reach the BCS title game by giving that team one more game against a quality opponent. Obviously, that's contributed to the number of BCS champs from the SEC and the reputation of the conference. But just having a championship game doesn't make a conference strong. It only helps if you have a second quality team as the opponent in that game, and even that can backfire if the underdog pulls an upset. The championship game is a double-edged sword for sure.
Brad Edwards (12:17 PM)
Last question. Need to get ready for CFB Live.
Marc (Malden, MA)
If either Auburn or Oregon lose, will another team jump Boise State or will Boise State finally get a top 2 spot?
Brad Edwards (12:22 PM)
As some of you know, I project the next day's BCS Standings every Saturday night, and over the last three weeks, it's been fairly easy to predict which big-name team would vault up the rankings after No. 1 lost. We're now at a point, however, where I don't think it's obvious anymore. If Oregon loses, I wouldn't be surprised to see Boise move to No. 1 in the polls, nor would I be surprised to see Auburn jump the Broncos. If Auburn loses, I wouldn't be surprised to see TCU move up to third in the polls, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see the Frogs get leaped by Michigan State or Missouri. The next upset will give us a much better indication than we've ever had of exactly how much help Boise State and TCU still need this season.
Brad Edwards (12:23 PM)
Thanks, everyone. Will No. 1 bite the dust again this week? Should be fun to watch.
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