Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Scott Pioli (Kansas City)
I told you it wasn't just Coach Belicheck at New England calling all the shots. Now it's your turn. What do you think the odds are of us winning the Super Bowl? Go Chiefs.
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Hey now, I'm a big Scott Pioli fan. He's done a terrific job of stockpiling talent on that team. Not sure a Super Bowl is in their future in 2010 (too many other good teams in the AFC) but it could be there in the near future if they can get their QB situation worked out.
Jimmy N (Arlington, VA)
So let me get this straight... the Vikes are either going to start a 41 year old pick-slinger with 2 ankle fractures, or the Tavaris Jackson experiment??? What on earth. They had a perfectly good QB in camp by the name of SAGE ROSENFELS! Why didnt they just unleash the fury? Yeesh.
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Jimmy, Sage could have led the Vikings to the promised land!
KC, help an old faithful fan out! What are your thoughts on Owen Daniels for the rest of the year? Are his metrics improving?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Houston keeps going to him more and more as the season progresses. Kubiak recently said he looks fully healthy so a great 2nd half run should be in his future.
KCJ, obviously no one could have seen DeAngelo Hall's 4 INT game comign last week. What do the long term metrics say about him?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
He's the most hot and cold CB in the NFL. As great as his four int game was, he also had a game earlier this year where he was torched in coverage all game long. I'd prefer the 2009 version of Hall that was a consistent performer over this year's version.
Shane (Los Angeles, CA)
LETS TALK SOME FOOTBALL (registered trademark to TFS)! Do you think Favre is unselfish enough to where, if he thought in his heart the Vikings had a better chance to win with T-Jax, he would put aside his personal streak and do what's best for the team? For the record, I do not!
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
The issue with Favre is that, injury notwithstanding, he always believes he gives his team the best chance to win. No way he would intentionally bench himself unless he suffered a Joe Theismann-like broken leg.
Who do you think are the top 3 corners in the league? Is Brandon Flowers inching his way into those discussions?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
He's leading the way. Brent Grimes is also doing a superb job (see today's TFS Insider article on the Falcons as the NFC's best team). Have to think about #3 on that list, might go with Quentin Jammer.
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
Flowers has 2009 Darrelle Revis-like metrics so far, by the way.
How happy are you after Jay Cutler's 4 interception game? Don't lie.
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
I don't actually pull against Cutler, you know. I just have the moxie to say he's still a risk taker even when he has a few games where he reins that tendency in.
What are your thoughts and realistic expectations for LeGarrett Blount for the rest of the season?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
He looked good enough to put on one of my fantasy teams (my RBs are in bad shape injury-wise). Having said that, he likely won't be the bell cow back, so think 8-10 touches per game.
KC, I always think of you are having one of the "best haircuts in football" (Gruden is up there too of course). Did you see Joe Flacco's recent monstrocity? Egads man.
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Dansby, that is one of the few pictures that exists where the TFS haircut is good. I always give a shout out to Missy, my stylist, for having the ability to do that. To make my hair look good makes her the Peyton Manning of stylists.
Fantasy with a mix of the real world.... I dropped MSW for Steve Johnson and held onto Breaston in hopes he becomes something. Did I make the right choice? How would you rate those 3 going forward?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
Steve Johnson is having a tremendous season. It isn't a matter of a couple of lucky passes, either, as the Bills are actually making him a focal point of their offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick is showing that he has NFL starter level skills (Martz had terrific things to say about him a couple of years ago). A bit worried about Breaston because of potential rust and having a new QB.
KC, do you think the Chiefs will give McCluster more touches over time, or is this the role he was designed to play?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
The issue for the Chiefs is how do you split the carries? They want to get the ball to Jones and Charles as well and Bowe is still their #1 WR target. Unless McCluster can prove he is more worthy to get the ball than any of those other three (something that is definitely a possibility), his rush/reception level will stay where it is at.
Ryan (Medford, OR)
KC thanks for the insight into the Oregon-USC match up. You gonna be watching?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Big time. Oregon is a fantastic team. The idea of a BCS title game between the Ducks and Auburn Tigers is something to hope for, because they would put up a game for the ages.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
KC, all season long you got my hopes up saying that the Cowboys could/should turn it around with their talent. Now look what happened. Thanks for nothing, KC. (note: I'm simply displacing my anger on your b/c Jerry Jones and Wade Phillips don't chat on ESPN)
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Josh, glad to give you a forum through which to vent! Talent normally trumps all and that Dallas did not find a way to do that so far this year is the story of the first half of the 2010 season.
Ok K Sidge. You are Andy Reid (sorry). Who do you start this week and why? (and why are you so bad at managing the clock???)
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
No apologies necessary - Reid is a Hall of Fame coaching contender. Vick is the way to go because Kolb is still forcing too many passes into coverage. He has a 5.6% bad decision rate right now. To put that into perspective, consider that Cutler is normally between the 3-4% range in that category.
Should Dallas start Kitna or should they give McGee a shot to see what the kids got considering their season is all but shot
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
I almost named the bad decision metric after Kitna a few years ago. He's an interception waiting to happen. Might as well find out what McGee has to offer.
Speaking of KC...do I roll with them in Survivor or take a chance on Dallas (as the Jags are AWFUL on the road)?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
The Bills could give the Chiefs a run for their money. I might actually go with Dallas in that one given how badly the Jags secondary has played this year (even Kitna should be able to beat them given his superb WR corps).
Phil K (DE)
KCJ- greetings and salutations from the great state of DE, Scientist! KC, we recently had a fantasy league wide "meetup". It was great fun, but the final tab at the bar was egregiously expensive. What penalty should the picker of the bar get for picking such a place?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
Good question - why don't we throw it out to the chatters - what should the penalty be here?
KC, in your estimation, how much would Cutler improve if he was still in Denver's offense which incorporates more playaction with a run game, roll outs, shotgun. The whole point of getting rid of Turner was because his play calls were predictable and it would take him half the season to adjust to anything. Martz runs the ball 10 times a game so the opposing d-lines just pin their ears back not having to worry about the run and will not use shorter drops when Cutler is literally getting killed. He adjusted in the Cowboys game but since then it's 5 and 7 step drops every play. The Bears need Kyle Shanahan or Jeremy Bates for head coach.
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
Cutler's bad decision rates were just as poor in Denver. Putting him into a high-risk offense like Martz runs is not a bad thing since he is going to take chances either way. The Bears issue is their O line and that Cutler isn't getting rid of the ball quickly enough. He needs to be more decisive and aggressive and take those chances (although he also needs to throw better passes than he did last week - that's why Hall made most of his picks).
Robert (Huntsville, Al)
How is it possible that head coaches are so awful at challenges? How could someone competent pay someone millions that has so little clue on when to challenge a play?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
Let's not blame the head coaches - they don't have a chance to look at the video. They have to rely on their staff to tell them whether or not they should go for it. What the NFL ought to do is give every coach an iPad that has a replay feed - then the coach can make the decision himself.
Ooo Oooo Pick ME! (NYC)
What is your take on Jacob Tamme? Can he put up numbers similar to Dallas Clark? Why is nobody talking about this guy?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Clark is a double digit YPA TE, so asking Tamme to do that might be a bit much. He looks to be a solid receiver but I'm not sure he has the stretch the field skills to get a ton of usage in the Colts scheme.
Questions about two rookie WRs- Do you see Dez Bryant breaking out in the second half despite Kitna throwing to him now? Do you think Demaryius Thomas can make a big impact later in the year for Denver? Such a beast.
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
I want to see how Bryant handles a corner who will give him press coverage all game long. He works great in space but has to show he can handle having a CB in his face. Regarding Thomas, he's a phenom (was an early Pass Plays pick) but he's been slowed by injuries. He also looks like he might be a bit winded at times, which could be a direct impact of the injury and of getting acclimated to the NFL. Long term, however, he's going to be a Pro Bowl caliber WR.
Shirley (Don't call me Shirley)
KCJ, I suggest the gentleman who picked the expensive bar, buy the other guys a free round next time they hang out. No sense tarring and feathering the guy, I'm sure he didnt know.
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
A reasonable offer. It does give the others a chance to get even by going to an expensive bar as well.
Can Houston manage to pull out another win against Indy this week?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
It may all boil down to if they can find a way to keep Reggie Wayne from beating them. The Colts are getting down to Wayne and Garcon as their passing offense and, as good as Garcon is, I don't think he's enough to win a shootout versus Houston. As goes Wayne, so goes the Texans chances.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
I'm tellin ya, KC. You should develop a super-bad decision metric and name it after the Cowboys. Okay, that's the last vent I have. Do you have any plans to do a breakdown on Boise St? I'd be interested in how they measure up scientifically. Apologies if you've already done one.
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
I've considered doing an analysis of Boise State, but it is hard to do a contrary thought on a team that is going into a matchup where they are going to dominate (which is the case for the Broncos ever week). I'll keep trying to come up with a story angle on them, though.
The guy who picked the expensive bar should pay for a round of boilermakers for the other unsuspecting guys.
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
That's one way to handle the situation.
KC, Giants vs. Jets on a neutral field tomorrow - who wins?
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
I am in the midst of an ESPNNewYork.com blog post series that takes a look at which NY team is better. Stay tuned for the answer!
Scott (Los Angeles)
When will the NFL put a team in LA? will it be a new or an existing franchise? We're still waiting!!!!
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Nothing will happen until there is labor peace. As long as this potential lockout situation is in place, nothing will happen on this front. Long term, the league will probably go with expansion in my view - that turf is too valuable to let it go to an existing team.
Ajit (Saratoga, CA)
HI KC!I know your opinion on moss, but seriously, now that hes gone, how are the patriots STILL able to get away with just throwing short? I counted no more than 4 non short passes the entire game for NE
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
A team can get away with a dink-dunk offense if they have a patient QB who doesn't make bad decisions. That is the definition of Tom Brady, so NE's offense should be able to get away with this all year. As teams adjust and try to stop the short game, it will open up chances to playcall deep passes, so look for a bit more of a vertical mix down the road.
Robert (Huntsville, Al)
At what point do NFL owners of teams like the Bucs, Jags, and Chargers realize that they will make more money if they drop the price of their tickets? Any money is better than no money...
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
Couldn't agree more. It's as I wrote in Blindsided - the NFL needs to use revenue management ideas to fill their stadiums. That means aim your price high but if you can't fill the stadium with the high prices, lower it until you have enough customer demand to sell every seat.
Albert Haynesworth (The Bank)
KC- thanks for believing in me. I showed what I can so in a 3-4 last week buddy! Look out 2nd half!
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
It isn't a matter of a buddy situation with Albert - he's just always been a beast in the tape reviews. Glad to see it is still the case.
Gorman (Arbutus, MD)
KCJ- what are you and Mrs Scientist having for dinner tonight? Been out anywhere good lately?
KC Joyner (4:40 PM)
Been staying home of late, need to get out of the house sometime - may do that tomorrow. Steak, fried potatoes and corn is the dinner menu this evening (and it smells good!).
Todd(PA) [via mobile]
Not sure how much film u watched on Dallas but who do you think has been underachieving bsides Miles Austin who has 6 drops n is on my fantasy team.
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Miles has had a few plays where he hasn't been his 2009 self (I'm with you on the frustration that brings to a fantasy team) but all in all he's still had a great season. Dallas' issue is multiple but a lot of it boils down to subpar CB play. Jenkins was a shutdown guy in 2009 and is bouncing around double-digit YPA this year. Scandrick is another who played well in the past but isn't doing so this year.
One of my favorite plays is the Middle Screen to the TE, the Wisconsin Badgers used to do this a lot with O Daniels...why don't we see this type of play in the pro's?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
It does get a decent amount of use, but it might not get used more because it is going right into the center of the defense. A lot of pass catchers don't operate as well there as they do in space.
What kind of week do you see Stafford having in his return against Wash?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
Shaun Hill was quite productive in the Lions offense, so there is no reason to think Stafford should do any worse. The Skins have been awful in coverage, so Stafford should have a terrific game (he'll be one of the sleepers in this week's TFS start-sit charts - more info on which can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com).
Mort Seinfeld (Boca, FL)
KCJ- how old are you? You eat dinner earlier than Al Davis!?!
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
If you are putting me into any kind of comparison with Al Davis, I'll take it as a compliment.
Crayton or S Johnson this weekend? I dare you
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Crayton. Tennessee has terrible coverage across the board.
If you were a NFL GM...what would be the position you would fill LAST and why?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
It would probably be one of the linebacker spots. Solid LBs aren't that hard to find.
Ryan (San Diego)
Do you think Rivers has a shot at Dan Marino's record? Hopefully you say no because that means they actually might win some games
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
He does, but not if he doesn't keep a healthy set of pass catchers. That SD's offense is still operating at the level it is with all of these injuries says a ton about just how good Rivers is.
How mad are you that Hakeem Nicks went one pick before your turn in fantasy chat league #2? (yes, I took him)
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
It is one of the reasons my team is not doing well, but that's the price one pays when playing fantasy football with people who use my research - can't sneak any high-end sleepers past you guys!
Interested to know what Devin McCourty's metrics are for the season. So far he looks like a stud.
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
Nick, I don't have them right in front of me and memory is escaping me regarding what they are. Can you shoot this question over in tomorrow's fantasy football chat? Promise I will have the answer then.
Who has a bigger day Sunday: Crayton, Ocho, or Moreno?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Josh, the easiest way to ensure that I won't answer a question is to post it dozens of times.
KC what is your take on Mike Williams South and West? Who do you like more?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Williams West is the more talented but he's also been the one dealing with more injuries. Williams South's value is going to improve the rest of the year as he gets into a groove with Josh Freeman. Freeman is playing very well (quite the unsung player) and at the pace he and Williams are improving, they could be a future Pro Bowl tandem.
What do your metrics say about the Giants D... anyone stand out in particular? Especially in the secondary, does the D line make them look good or have they been playing well?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
For a while there, Webster and Thomas had similar coverage metrics this year, but of late Thomas' numbers are going up while Webster's are holding steady. NY will need Thomas to step up his game if they are to make a deep playoff run.
Ravens D are they worth keeping for the rest of the fantasy season?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Fabian Washington is a big concern. He looked awful last week. There is a chance he'll be benched in favor of Josh Wilson, but Wilson hasn't exactly been a shutdown CB either. Still like them for the most part but have a backup plan ready just in case.
Randy (Cleveland, OH)
How do Eric Wright's metrics compare to last year?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Much worse. He was a 5-6 YPA guy in 2009 and he's in the 8-10 range this year. Maybe he needs to go back to wearing #24 -
Robert (Huntsville, Al)
In our KC fantasy league draft, I wasn't there so I had a friend do it. I was playing golf talking to him on the phone telling him who I wanted. I don't know what level of sadness or dedication that leaves me at. But it's impressive in one of those area's...
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
Sadness and dedication - what a combination.
Is Tramon Williams a trustworthy CB for Green Bay against top WRs?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
Tramon Williams is having a superb year. If memory serves correct, he's in the low 5 YPA range. He's having a Pro Bowl caliber season.
When Vick comes back next week, is he a top 5 QB again?
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
If you mean fantasy, yes. Only caveat is how Jackson looks when he comes back. If he forgets about the big hit, all is well, but that's the kind of hit one tends not to forget (a bit reminiscent of the Dickie Thon beanball from back in the 1980s - it's probably on Youtube somewhere, was just a brutal hit that impacted the rest of Thon's career).
Would you rather have Kenny Britt or Percy Harvin for the rest of the year?
KC Joyner (5:02 PM)
Britt. Harvin is more of a slot WR and when Britt is on his game, he is a true matchup buster. Well, it's been fun but dinner is just about ready to hit the table and I'm really hungry, so got to run. Quick note - you can follow my material on Twitter @kcjoynertfs. Hope to see you all in tomorrow's fantasy football chat at 4 PM ET!