Chat with Brad Edwards
Welcome to SportsNation! On Monday, resident BCS expert Brad Edwards will drop by to chat about what the latest BCS standings mean to the nation's top teams going forward.
Send your questions now and join Brad Monday at 11:30 a.m. ET!
Brad Edwards (11:35 AM)
Five unbeatens remain, and it'll be down to four or fewer by this time next week. This season continues to be interesting.
Chris (Holmdel, NJ)
Brad, it's looking like Boise state is going to need 2 of the 3 schools ahead of them to lose a game to have a shot at the BCS championship. If Utah beats TCU, however, will they jump above Boise in the BCS standings?
Brad Edwards (11:39 AM)
Although I'd favor TCU over Boise in the race to be the highest-ranked non-AQ team, I still think Boise has a chance to jump them back. Utah beating TCU would be big for BSU's chances of making a BCS game, because I don't think Utah would get ahead of Boise unless the Broncos play a close game and get demoted in the polls. All that said, national championship hopes depend on Boise State getting to No. 1 in at least one - if not both - of the polls, which means Oregon and Auburn both need to lose.
In your opinion,how did Oregon jump so far in the computers from playing unranked USC?
Brad Edwards (11:44 AM)
I'm still confused by that. USC ranked 26th, on average, in the computers going into that game, and Oregon's previous opponents didn't have a great day. I had projected Oregon to move up to about fourth in the computers. I was very surprised to see them go up to No. 2 in most of them. But it's a good example of why Alabama has so much upside in the computers right now. Even though the Tide are ranked 15th by the computers, they would probably beat four top-20 teams by running the table, which might vault them ahead of the non-AQ undefeated teams in that part of the formula.
Any chance of Alabama winning out and not playing in Glendale?
Brad Edwards (11:46 AM)
I think Alabama would have the computer strength. It would come down to whether enough voters in the coaches' and Harris polls would gladly move a one-loss Alabama ahead of the undefeated non-AQ teams. I happen to think there are quite a few voters in those polls that don't want to see a team with a weaker schedule get rewarded with a spot in the BCS title game, so I like Alabama's chances.
If Auburn loses, and TCU, BSU, Stanford, Wisconsin, and Alabama go undefeated the rest of the year, what is the bowl picture?Thanks
Brad Edwards (11:50 AM)
Assuming Oregon also goes undefeated, here's my best guess. I think Oregon would play Alabama for the national title. Due to a little-known clause in the BCS guidelines for this four-year cycle, that would require the Rose to take the highest-ranked non-AQ, which I'll project to be TCU in this instance. I think TCU would play Wisconsin, although Ohio State could win the three-way tie if Michigan State is also ableto win out (way too many scenarios to go through here). I think that would put Auburn in the Sugar against whichever didn't get to the Rose between Wisconsin and OSU. The Orange would be the ACC champ against, I'm guessing, a Big 12 at-large. The Fiesta would be Big 12 champ against probably the Big East champ.
Brad, Oregon controls their destiny, right? How concerned should Duck fans be by strength of schedule? And do you foresee Oregon winning out?
Brad Edwards (11:52 AM)
No question Oregon has nothing to worry about other than winning its own games. No reason to bet against them doing that, although upsets often happen when the pressure mounts on these highly-ranked teams late in the season, especially on the road.
If TCU wins out and Oregon loses, doesn't TCU pretty much clinch a spot in the National Championship game vs. Auburn or Alabama?
Brad Edwards (11:55 AM)
It all comes back to that question of whether voters would look for a one-loss team to move over TCU. Also, unless Boise State plays a close game, I'm not sure TCU is going to get a lot of first-place votes in the polls, even with losses by Oregon and Auburn. TCU would have a chance in this scenario, but it's far from a lock. I think a lot of people underestimate the biases that some voters have against teams from non-AQ conferences - not that they don't think they're good enough teams, but that they don't want someone with so many easy games on the schedule to be rewarded.
Scott (Gresham, OR)
If Oregon and Stanford win out, will the Pac 10 be penalized again for not taking the easy way out by not scheduling 4 ooc, most of which are at home, like the SEC, and only get one BCS bowl game again? Why shouldn't a one loss Stanford get a bid when that loss was to #1?
Brad Edwards (11:57 AM)
If Stanford wins out and doesn't get a BCS bid, it will be because of the clause that would require the Rose to take a non-AQ team to replace Oregon this season. Just bad timing for Stanford. And I can't see another BCS game wanting the Cardinal, because they don't have a big travelling fan base. It's all about money, and Stanford won't make them money.
Do the computers treat road victories differently than home wins?
Brad Edwards (11:59 AM)
Most of them consider location of game, so a road win is better than a home win over a team of equal rating. By the same token, road losses aren't as bad as home losses, unless you lose to a bad team on the road.
Joe (Stamford, CT)
Can Boise/TCU be jumped, at this point, by a one-loss team from a conference other than the SEC?
Brad Edwards (12:02 PM)
Too tough to call right now. Maybe in a couple more weeks, it'll be easier to identify whether Oklahoma or Nebraska has a chance to do that. And don't rule out Stanford (or even Arizona). But I don't see any of the Big Ten teams having enough schedule strength to do it.
What is your opinion of Ohio State's chances to make a BCS Bowl, win the Big Ten, or make the National Title game?
Brad Edwards (12:03 PM)
At this point, I give the Buckeyes very little chance to reach the BCS title game. They need a lot of help on that front. But if they win out, and Michigan State can also win out, I think Ohio State will finish higher than Wisconsin and MSU in the final BCS Standings and win the three-way tiebreaker for the Rose Bowl.
Brad Edwards (12:04 PM)
Last question. Sorry, but I have to run.
What is the best case scenario in the title game for those who want a playoff system as soon as possible?
Brad Edwards (12:06 PM)
I'm really not sure any scenario would impact the politics behind the BCS in order to make a playoff happen. Your best hope is for a 1-loss Alabama to jump over undefeated TCU and Boise. I think the only way any sort of playoff happens is if Congress makes it happen, and that would only occur if there's a sense of injustice in the system. And even that's a stretch.
Brad Edwards (12:06 PM)
Thanks again, everyone. Same time, same place next week.