Chat with Andrea Adelson
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, College Football Nation blogger Andrea Adelson stops by to chat about the season.
Adelson came to ESPN.com after serving as the Orlando Sentinel's college football blogger. She'll be keeping up with the national blog, while hosting Cover It Live events, as well as keeping track of the non-BCS teams.
Send your questions now and join Adelson Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
Andrea Adelson (4:00 PM)
Hello all and welcome to another live chat. I am ready to answer all your TCU/Utah questions and anything else you want to know. So let's go!
What are the chances that Boise State goes undefeated but gets left out of the bcs, as it looks like TCU is going to snatch the automaic non-aq bid? Tell me college football would never allow the day pittsburgh or syracuse gets in and BSU doesnt (not to mention VT looks like a near orange bowl lock)
Andrea Adelson (4:02 PM)
Brent, I am so glad you asked this because it is something I wanted to address. There is a chance that could happen. If TCU finishes ahead, then the Broncos could most certainly be left out if the BCS bowls decide to go with a one-loss team from the Big Ten, Big 12 or Pac-10. I am not so sure the BCS wants 2 non-AQ teams in for the second year in a row. Right now I have both in BCS games, but that is no certainty.
William (Houston, Texas)
No one else wants to consider this question - maybe you will Andrea.I see this scenario as a real possibility: Auburn loses to Alabama, which then beats a 2-3 loss EAST team for the SEC title at 12-1. Boise and TCU finish unbeaten. Oregon State upsets Oregon at the end of the year. TCU and BSU both beath OSU (when OSU had James Rodgers). Can TCU and BSU possibly play for the national title or does every BCS supporter conspire to do anything they can to get Alabama into the game over one of them?
Andrea Adelson (4:04 PM)
Well I don't know that there are going to be conspirators out there trying to keep TCU and Boise State out of a title game. I love conspiracy theories as much as the next person, but someone would really have to monkey with the computers for that to happen. Not sure that is in the cards. The possibility of seeing TCU vs. Boise State in the title game is a very, very, very, very slim one. BUT if there are schools like Auburn and Alabama with multiple losses, and Oregon loses once, then it will be interesting to see whether a 1-loss Pac-10 team would make it in, or one-loss Big Ten and Big 12 teams. I think a lot would have to happen across all leagues not just the Pac-10 and SEC.
Hi Andrea! Do you think Stanford has a shot at reaching the Rose Bowl this season? Thanks!
Andrea Adelson (4:05 PM)
I do. I have Stanford in as an at-large based on Oregon going to the national championship game against a non-AQ school. That is the only hope for Stanford, because the Rose Bowl has to take the top non-AQ qualifier if it loses one of its teams to the NC game. That, or have Oregon lose twice.
Chris (San Jose)
Hi Andrea, why does San Jose St. lose to teams like New Mexico and UC Davis? These are the teams they're suppost to beat. Remember, they only lost to Wisconsin by 20 and it was closer than that.
Andrea Adelson (4:07 PM)
This has been a tough year for San Jose State because of all the injuries. I think they are up to 15 starters/major contributors out for the year. I know Mike MacIntyre said it was hard to have enough scholarship guys going against each other in practice. This is also his first season there, taking over a pretty awful team. And I believe they lost to New Mexico State, which is slightly better than New Mexico. The difference in that game came down to the FG kicker, though. I think SJ State's missed three.
Brinton: (SLC, Utah) [via mobile]
Andrea, Thanks for standing up for us non-AQ's the other day. Quick pair of questions: Who do you like in this Saturday's matchup between TCU and Utah and what's your score prediction? Also, does Utah jump Boise if they win? And does TCU stay ahead of Boise if they win? Thanks
Andrea Adelson (4:09 PM)
That is a trio of questions, Brinton! This was my pick today: No. 3 TCU 24, No. 5 Utah 21. You can check our nation blog for more on the pick, along with a video I did on some keys to watch. From everyone I have talked to, Utah will not jump Boise State if both teams win this week. TCU should stay ahead of Boise for this week if the Horned Frogs win, but a lot of it depends on the human voters.
A.C. (Tallahassee, FL)
Hi Andrea, what are the chances of UCF leaving C-USA to join the Big East conference since there are talks about the Big East expanding.
Andrea Adelson (4:09 PM)
It all depends on whether UCF wants to join as a football only member. The last time the Big East expanded, UCF was adamant it wanted to be a full time member. This past may, athletic director Keith Tribble reiterated that stance. As of right now, it appears that is the direction the Big East wants to go.
Andrea, who wins the Toledo at NIU game next Tuesday? Also, how many more wins does NIU need to break the top 25? I would like to think an 8-2 record with another good win over Toledo on national television would do it. Seems like no one is giving NIU any respect. I don't see San Diego St. or UCF with a more impressive win than our's over Temple but they're still getting more votes. We have a better record than both as well.
Andrea Adelson (4:11 PM)
Eric, you must not be a faithful reader of my non-AQ power rankings! I have NIU at No. 6. I am going with NIU in that game vs. Toledo but it should be a good one. The reason that "respect" is harder to come by is because NIU plays in the MAC, which is weaker than the MWC, WAC and C-USA.
brad (New York)
when bsu is 13-0 at the end of the season after beating a bcs foe in a bcs game will they have proved anything or will they still get no respecr
Andrea Adelson (4:13 PM)
I tend to lean toward "No respect." Because Boise State has won a BCS game before, and Utah has won two but the schools never get credit for the wins. The only reason they won is because the other team just didn't care/wasn't trying/was Pittsburgh (in the case of Utah).
bcs computers (bcs land)
am trying my best to put Boise in. they have a great team and they have beaten bigger schools in the past but, i can't use those wins for this year so am force to leave them out because of their conference schedule forgive me
Andrea Adelson (4:14 PM)
Are you trying your best, computers? Because right now Boise State is at No. 5 in your ranking.
Andrea, if Villanova moves up to the Big East in football, isn't the solution simple. Tell ND you are either in for football or out for everything else. If out, take another school and basketball remains 16
Andrea Adelson (4:16 PM)
Well that would certainly seem like a simple solution to me, but I really doubt the Big East is ready to kick ND to the curb in all other sports. Of course the Big East would love to add ND in football, but I think this one is ultimately up to ND, not the Big East to decide.
Andrea, After this season Kellen Moore has a good chance of being 39-1 as a starter. What he has done on the field is ridiculous, and he still has 1 year left! Do you think he is reaching (or will reach) Tebow-esque status in college football?
Andrea Adelson (4:17 PM)
Nope. Because he plays at Boise State, and there are many people out there who cannot get behind his record or his stats because of the conference he plays in. Don't believe me? Start a debate with anybody you know who is anti-Boise State.
Joe (Las Vegas)
As an UNM fan, I don't have to worry about the BCS. Would it make sense for the MWC and WAC to merge again in order to get an automatic bid, since if TCU leaves, there is no reason for the MWC to get a bid?
Andrea Adelson (4:19 PM)
How would that merger get them closer to AQ status? The best teams from the WAC would be in the Mtn West. Adding in Hawaii, Utah St., et al would do nothing for the MWC if it wants to become AQ. Its best bet would be to try and raid C-USA. But even then none of those teams would help out for this cycle. Your membership as of Dec. 4, 2011 is what would count.
who wins between utep and SMU
Andrea Adelson (4:20 PM)
Here is my pick from this morning:SMU 30, UTEP 20.
do you think #3 TCU has a chance to jump #2 auburn this week if they beat #5 Utah since auburn is playing a not so good tenn-chattanooga
Andrea Adelson (4:21 PM)
I don't think so. But even if they did, Auburn would jump right back over them before the season ends.
Notice in your bowl projections you didn't have Nebraska in a BCS game. Is that because you think Oklahoma would beat us in the B12 championship? I'm guessing most think that their defense would shut down our running game as Texas did. Am I close? LOL. As always, appreciate you insight.
Andrea Adelson (4:22 PM)
Good to hear from you again. You are exactly right. I think Oklahoma has the only D to be able to shut down the run game the way Texas did. Alec asked me a few questions before you whether I think Nebraska is a legit national title contender and I have to say no for right now. A lot would have to happen, and I am not picking Nebraska to win the Big 12 as we sit here today on Nov. 4.
Justin Williamson (Tennessee)
Which would be better for Boise State, A TCU win or a Utah win? I'm thinking Utah because if TCU wins, then they might pull that much more ahead in the polls. But if Utah wins, doesn't that take away credibility of Boise's win over TCU last year (in the voter's eyes, at leasat)?
Andrea Adelson (4:23 PM)
I think TCU is the biggest threat to Boise State right now, so Broncos fans should root for Utah. I don't think the voters are thinking about last year, to be honest.
Tyler (Grand Island, NE)
So with the Pac 10's collection of qb's not looking as good as when we started the season, and no other conferences looking very stellar either, does the Big 12 have the nation's best collection of qb's? Gabbert, Griffen, Jones, Weeden, and Martinez are all looking quite impressive. Even some of the other qb's have shown some promise.
Andrea Adelson (4:26 PM)
Tanneyhill looked pretty good the other day, too, didn't he? The Big 12 generally is known for good quarterback play, so I don't think we're going out on a limb saying that. People in the Big Ten might argue with you: Pryor, Cousins, Stanzi, Robinson and Tolzien are a pretty good collection, too. Not to mention Ben Chappell at Indiana.
Adam (Chicago, IL)
Andrea, you have by far the worst, most inept bowl projections I've ever seen. Do you even research any other teams in the nation? Or do you just pick based on mascots you like? You'd think someone given such a duty would at least take it seriously. I think you are over your head.
Andrea Adelson (4:26 PM)
How did you know? I love mascots.
I don't completely understand the fascination with the Oregon offense. It's not something new, they averaged 46 last year and 40 in 2008 (if you take out the BSU games) They average 54 right now but that is scewed by playing New Mexico and Portland State. They have yet to play a disciplined defense. They may be slightly better with Thomas at QB but are we to believe that Boise State isn't also slightly better now that they are juniors and seniors instead of freshman and sophomores?
Andrea Adelson (4:28 PM)
Well that is what the Oregon supporters would like you to believe. Even the most ardent of Boise State fans have to recognize that this Oregon offense is good. Watch them for 20 minutes and you will get the idea. I think their strength of schedule is as much of a question as Boise State's, though.
Everyone is talking about the Big East losing their AQ status unless they beef up the confrence with the addition of TCU. Any chance that the MWC gets the Big East's AQ with the addition of Boise and TCU staying?
Andrea Adelson (4:29 PM)
The Big East is not losing its AQ status in this next round of evalution. This is just to determine whether a seventh conference will be added in as an automatic qualifier. I don't think that will come up again until after 2014.
Do you understand why Utah fans could be so put off by the coverage of their team? I have seen only one ESPN "expert" picking them to win...they are ranked 5th! They are not chopped liver...Why do you think that they are left of this conversation every time it is discussed (see Kiper and McShay earlier today). They did it first (BCS) and did it in a more dominating fashion.
Andrea Adelson (4:30 PM)
I don't see how one expert picking Utah means that there is bad coverage of Utah. I have written a story every day on Utah vs. TCU, and I think they are getting plenty of press. The problem is Boise State and TCU are ranked ahead of them, so they are just not going to get talked about as much as those 2 schools.
People make a big deal--rightfully so--out of Auburn not having a bye week for so long, out of Alabama having 6 consecutive conference opponents w/ bye weeks before playing them; basically, a lot of talk about the significance of bye weeks. Yet I've personally read no comments on the fact that Boise has more than one (technically). Surely, so as not to be hypocritical, these people have to also consider this a big deal (as I do)?
Andrea Adelson (4:32 PM)
I think you are referring to the fact that Boise has to get time off between its midweek games. That is really the only way to make things fair when you have to play on Tuesday nights. The SEC never does. A league like the WAC does have to do that. Same for the schools in the MAC.
Russell (Iowa City)
What was the reasoning behind predicting Iowa in the Insight bowl?
Andrea Adelson (4:33 PM)
I have gotten this question a lot. The Insight Bowl actually alternates the No. 4 pick with the Gator Bowl starting this season in the new round of bowl affiliations. So that is my reason. I see Iowa as the No. 4 pick from the Big Ten because I do not have the Big Ten getting 2 BCS teams. The reason is because I see 2 non-AQ teams getting BCS spots, two SEC teams getting BCS spots and Stanford getting another.
Bill Z (orlando)
hey there - Which coaches on hot seat (Richt?) might be most in demand to coach again quickly?
Andrea Adelson (4:35 PM)
I was just talking to a friend of mine the other day about that -- thought Miami would have no problem taking Richt off their hands. I am not sure Richt will be gone, though. I think Rich Rodriguez will get another shot at a school that is on a similar level to West Virginia, maybe a notch below. He has proven he can win, he was just in over his head there. ALTHOUGH the two NCAA investigations at Michigan and West Virginia are going to hurt his rep.
I'm not here to bash non-BCS teams. But I will ask this: what will you say to grieving Arizona fans who may potentially qualify for their 1st Rose Bowl bid ever, and yet won't be able to because the Rose has to take a non-BCS team this season? How do you ease their pain?
Andrea Adelson (4:37 PM)
You can ask the same of Stanford fans. I had one friend who is a Stanford grad email me incredulous that was the case this year. I am not sure what to say or how to ease their pain except -- it is never a sure thing to get 2 bids from one conference. Just hope for Oregon to lose.
Mike Donovan (Portland, OR)
Who is the best freshman QB outside of the AQ?
Andrea Adelson (4:39 PM)
If we are talking about true freshman, then UCF QB Jeffrey Godfrey has done an excellent job so far this year. The Knights have 2 losses, but both were very close. He is managing the game well and not making many mistakes. Pete Thomas at Colorado State is also having a great year. He's just on a bad team.
Max (Eugene, OR)
Do you agree with Jeff Fischer that Oregon could put up some points on an NFL Team?
Andrea Adelson (4:40 PM)
Hard for me to envision any college team putting up major points on an NFL team. But hey, Jeff Fisher knows more than I do!
If RichRod doesn't survive, would UM be interested in Brady Hoke if they can't land Harbaugh? I know he has some ties to the school.
Andrea Adelson (4:41 PM)
Could be, he done a heck of a job at SD St this year. But it is hard for me to envision Michigan not getting Harbaugh.
Don't write BSU off in the BCS yet! TCU is 2 games ahead of us in the computers. If Baylor starts losing and VT keeps winning we will jump them. Do you think the human voters will be swayed by the computers?
Andrea Adelson (4:41 PM)
No, but I think human voters could be swayed if TCU wins easily over Utah.
Hokies or Jackets tonight? We all know who boise is rooting for!
Andrea Adelson (4:41 PM)
I got the Hokies.
Please tell me where TCU gets the computer advantage over BSU? VT is higher ranked then Baylor, BSU beat OSU by more points then TCU and both beat Wyoming by the same score except BSU was at Wyoming and TCU played them at home. Looking at non conference and conference games, there is no justification for it. Please explain.
Andrea Adelson (4:44 PM)
TCU has played two more games first of all. Second of all, margin of victory does not count in the computers. Each computer takes into account different factors, so each programmer would have to be asked why they have one team ahead of another. TCU has played 1 team as bad as SJ State and N Mex St. (which BSU already played) but that is coming up in a few weeks vs. New Mexico.
josh (salt lake)
Everyone is talking about andy daltons expirience compared to jordan wynns lack of but how has andy dalton played in big games when the pressure is on? The last big game I remember him being in is the fiesta bowl and he was less than stellar. If you look at his performance vs top 25 opponents its not great. Sure jordan wynn hasn't played in too many big games but andy dalton doesn't seem to handle the pressure well. I'll take my chances with wynn. What is your take on this?
Andrea Adelson (4:46 PM)
This is something a lot of Utah fans have said to me this week. Dalton played pretty well vs. Baylor this year (2 incompletions I think) and pretty well last year vs. Utah so I don't think you can make that blanket statement. The guy has won 38 games and is the active career wins leader. He has to be doing something right. But that being said, there is no question TCU needs a good game out of him to win.
Andrea, how much of the national backlash against Boise State do you think stems from the fact that they are from Idaho, a state that most people do not think very highly of? Do you think if either Utah or TCU had started the season in the top 2-3 they would have been as polarizing of a non-AQ as Boise has been?
Andrea Adelson (4:47 PM)
I don't think it has anything to do with Idaho but more with the fact that people denegrate the WAC schedule. You hear more of a backlash against Boise State from SEC fans, for example, than Pac-10 fans. I think that has a lot to do with it, too.
So who goes to the Big East and why?
Andrea Adelson (4:48 PM)
Too early to say at this point. A lot depends on whether TCU and UCF want to join as football only.
Casey (Fort Worth)
If TCU wins big on the road and Boise wins close at home, do you move TCU past Boise in your power ranking ballot?
Andrea Adelson (4:48 PM)
Too early to say on that one, but I am not expecting Boise State to blow out Hawaii.
Napoleon (Preston, ID)
Any chance Boise State and TCU face off in the Fiesta Bowl again for a rubber match?
Andrea Adelson (4:49 PM)
Only if the Big 12 champion goes to the national championship game. I would want no part of seeing a rubber match. That will happen next year in the MWC!
Ricky Stanzi (Iowa City)
You have Iowa going to the Insight Bowl? Why do you hate America?
Andrea Adelson (4:51 PM)
Oh, Ricky. Last time I checked you guys had two losses. Right?
Brook (Salt Lake City)
Andrea: You have really been championing the Non-AQ performers against the BCS apologists lately and we Ute fans greatly appreciate it. However, my question is in regard to your picking TCU over Utah at RES. If you look at Dalton's road performances over the last couple years you see he is vulnerable and just average. The crowd will be the loudest this year (and probably since their last visit to Norman), they are at altitude, they haven't won in SLC, ever, and our team is far superior to last year's 10-3 team. Don't use SOS or veteran team as your only reason to pick TCU, give us something that really tells the tale of the tape the favors TCU?
Andrea Adelson (4:52 PM)
Did I use SOS or veteran team? I believe I said the defense is better, banking on Dalton having a big game, and TCU is better at creating turnovers. Are those not reasons? By the way, having a veteran team is a factor, too.
Jake (Honolulu, HI)
In you discussion with Schlabach, you counter argued that BSU needs the home games to pay the bills.. How did Fresno St. pull it off in the early 2000s with their "anywhere anytime" scheduling?
Andrea Adelson (4:54 PM)
Fresno State didn't play all of its nonconference games on the road, and it still had six home games, from best I could tell. The Bulldogs also got several return games. Not from everybody, but from a few.
Andrea Adelson (4:55 PM)
For those who keep asking about Iowa, please check the chat below for my answer.
If a 1-loss Alabama jumps and undefeated TCU and Boise, do you see the DOJ dropping the hammer on the BcS?
Andrea Adelson (4:56 PM)
Nope. Don't think the government wants to get involved.
You have Stanford going to the Rose Bowl vs a Non-AQ school? Really? Is this in a world without the Big Ten?
Andrea Adelson (4:57 PM)
Nope I have them in vs. Michigan State. I have a non-AQ school in the BCS national title game vs. Oregon, therefore opening an at-large spot in that game. Rose Bowl is not required to take a 2nd non-AQ school in this case. So that is a fit for Stanford, in my opinion.
Why have there been no talks of the Big East inviting Boise? Geography is obviously not an issue if they want to invite TCU. How about TCU and Boise State? That would help the Big East!
Andrea Adelson (4:58 PM)
TCU is a lot closer than Boise!
Who is the most COMPLETE team? Offense, Defense, Special Teams ... Oregon, Boise St., TCU or Utah ... sorry Auburn but 94th in pass D gets you the boot in this poll, LOL.
Andrea Adelson (4:58 PM)
I have Boise State at No. 1 in my power rankings so that should tell you something.
Sarah (Toledo, OH)
Andrea, what does "probation" mean exactly? No bowl games? I'm referring to the NCAA sanctions on Michigan. Thanks!
Andrea Adelson (5:00 PM)
No that isn't part of the punishment. Probation means if there are NCAA violations during this 3-year period, Michigan will be in line for much stronger sanctions, including losing scholarships, losing postseason appearances, etc.
Andrew (Montgomery, AL)
Since this year, the Rose Bowl is obligated to take the highest non-AQ qualifier, does the Orange Bowl get the second of Boise/TCU as an at large? It would seem that the BCS would want to spread out the non-AQs among all the bowls. The Sugar has taken non-AQs twice (Hawaii and Utah) and the Fiesta has taken them four times (Boise twice, Utah, and TCU).
Andrea Adelson (5:01 PM)
There is no guarantee a second non-AQ team gets in. Only the automatic qualifier is guaranteed a spot.
Pam (Myrtle Creek, OR)
I seem to disagree with many of you bowl projections weekly. This week you have Stanford playing Mich State in the Rose Bowl. Did you not know that if the Pac-10 champ goes to the National tiltle game, the Rose bowl committe has decided to chose a non AQ team instead of the PAC #2?? It makes me wonder what else you don't know when making your predictions. Frustrating.
Andrea Adelson (5:01 PM)
Did you also know that I have a non-AQ team in the national title game? That means the Rose Bowl does not have to take a second non-AQ team to fill in for Oregon.
Andrea Adelson (5:02 PM)
That is all the time we have for today. Thanks for chatting. I will be doing the Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech game with Heather Dinich at 7:30 p.m. tonight on another live chat, so please join us!
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