Chat with Brad Edwards
Welcome to SportsNation! On Monday, resident BCS expert Brad Edwards will drop by to chat about what the latest BCS standings mean to the nation's top teams going forward.
Send your questions now and join Brad Monday at 11:30 a.m. ET!
Brad Edwards (11:30 AM)
Major BCS shakeup (and much less drama) after Boise State's loss. Just think what we'd be talking about this week if Alabama hadn't blown a 24-0 lead. Let's get to the questions.
What are the chances of a TCU-Stanford national title game if both Oregon and Auburn lose this weekend? Would the people that care about things like ratings and attendance freak out if this happened?
Brad Edwards (11:32 AM)
Seems obvious that TCU would be in the game if Auburn and Oregon both lose. The opponent is the question. I think it would be Auburn. In this scenario, my best guess is that Auburn would still be the No. 1 team in the computers, which would probably be enough to keep the Tigers in the BCS top two.
If Oklahoma wins the Big XII and Oregon State beats Oregon causing Stanford to fall to #5 in the BCS (because the voters will most likely drop Oregon behind Wisconsin but leave them ahead of Stanford who they beat) then I think we get to see a Boise State/Oklahoma rematch in the Fiesta Bowl. How does this scenario sound?
Brad Edwards (11:35 AM)
Interesting theory on how Stanford could get bumped from the BCS top 4, but I'm not buying any scenario where Boise gets a BCS bid.
Is there any chance we could see someone from the Big 12 get an at large bid for the BCS? Maybe Oklahoma State or Missouri
Brad Edwards (11:38 AM)
If Stanford finishes in the top four, and thus is guaranteed one of the BCS at-large spots, I think it's highly unlikely that the Big 12 will get a second team in the BCS. Maybe the lone hope is that South Carolina beats Auburn, Cam Newton is declared ineligible, and the Orange takes Oklahoma State (because of the old Big 8 tie-in)instead of Arkansas. That's the best I can do for you.
What is it going to take for the ACC champion (hopefully VT) to play a good opponenet in the Orange Bowl? If we (or FSU) gets stuck with UCONN from the Big East, I am going to be very mad.....
Brad Edwards (11:40 AM)
I don't think the Orange would take UConn, although if the Huskies lose, there would probably be consideration given to taking West Virginia from the Big East. More than likely, though, the Orange will take Stanford. Is that a good enough opponent for you?
What explains Auburn jumping Oregon in the BCS more? SOS because of the win on the road against at top 10 or making up ground in the polls because BSU loosing forced those bias voters to move Auburn to #2.
Brad Edwards (11:42 AM)
Auburn already had a perfect score in the computer element before beating Alabama, so the SOS boost didn't change anything. If you look at the voting, Oregon pretty much held steady with polls points, but it seems Auburn gained most of the support that was previously going to Boise State. That's what made the difference.
The Orange won't take Stanford. Thousands of empty seats look really bad.
Brad Edwards (11:43 AM)
The Orange will take Stanford if the alternative is UConn. Either way, there will be thousands of empty seats. At least you have a highly-ranked team and a marquee player with Stanford.
If the Sugar takes Arkansas because Auburn is in the NC how do they select the at large opponent? And why is everyone predicting OSU when Mich. St. or Stanford(can you imagine luck vs. Mallett) deserve it more.
Brad Edwards (11:47 AM)
The BCS at-large picks have nothing to do with who earned or deserves anything. It has everything to do with selling tickets and creating a matchup that is attractive to TV viewers. There is no at-large candidate this year that has more of that than Ohio State. You could make the argument that Arkansas will sell out the stadium by itself, so you could afford to take a team with a smaller fan base; but after having Hawaii, Utah and Cincinnati the last three years, the Sugar is ready for a matchup that sounds elite.
Brad, is there any kind of "contingency plan" in the rulebook should a BCS team (Auburn) be forced to forfeit all of their wins at some point prior to the bowl game?
Brad Edwards (11:51 AM)
There is no contingency plan, and if something isn't announced this week, you can be sure that - if there's anything to be announced - it won't be announced until well after the bowls are over. The NCAA isn't going to sabotage the national championship game and entire bowl season by declaring the Heisman winner ineligible after it's too late to put another team in that game. And let me stress again, "if there's anything to be announced." I'm not expecting anything to happen.
Ben (Fort Worth)
Who should TCU be cheering harder for, the Beavers or the Gamecocks?
Brad Edwards (11:53 AM)
Unquestionably, the Beavers. Oregon has no chance of staying ahead of TCU after a loss. Auburn has maybe a 10% chance.
Mitch (Toller, MS)
Shouldn't Nevada have moved up more than just 2 spots after beating Boise State? BSU moved down about 8 or 9 spots so why not Nevada moving up? Seems ridiculous.
Brad Edwards (11:54 AM)
I think to a lot of voters, that game was validation that Boise wasn't good enough, rather than it being validation that Nevada is an outstanding team. That's my explanation for it.
Follow me here, Brad. SC upsets Auburn. TCU moves to the NC, SC goes to Sugar. Does that leave Auburn in the Orange Bowl?!?!
Brad Edwards (11:56 AM)
That would also put Stanford in the Rose. And, yes, it probably puts Auburn in the Orange. I just don't see another team that would be more attractive to the Orange, and Auburn would still have the Heisman winner (yes, I am giving him the trophy already).
So, as a Nebraska fan that doesn't want to get "stuck" facing the Big East champ in the Fiesta (assuming a Big 12 championship), should I be rooting for USF, because the Orange Bowl would be more likely to select WVU than Stanford?
Brad Edwards (11:58 AM)
That' my thought. If there's any chance of the Orange passing on Stanford, it would be to take a West Virginia team that might sell a lot more tickets. I'm still not sure the Orange is more likely to take WVU than Stanford, but I think it's at least a discussion.
Brian (NYC, NY)
Any chance we'll ever see a change in the BCS rules to allow more than 2 teams from one conference to get BCS bids?
Brad Edwards (12:00 PM)
As long as there are 10 teams in the BCS and six automatic-qualifying conferences, I don't see that changing.
If all stays the same, who wins TCU or Wisconsin?
Brad Edwards (12:01 PM)
I have a hard time picking a winner there. Ask Gordon Gee. He has a much stronger opinion on it.
Brent (Shalimar, FL)
Tell us this. What kind of outcry will there be if UConn wins out and gets to a BCS game?
Brad Edwards (12:05 PM)
Why should there be outcry? We knew before the season started that the Big East champ had a spot in the BCS. I believe the ACC has had a four-loss team in the BCS on three different occasions. I'm sure when they negotiate the next BCS contract, they'll discuss whether to add some sort of qualifying standard for AQ-conference champions.
Casey (Fort Worth)
Based on yesterday's show, it sounds like Craig James would like to include recruiting rankings into the BCS formula. Any chance that happens?
Brad Edwards (12:07 PM)
Sounds like a great idea to me. The BCS top three would be Texas, Florida and Alabama every year. How good would that have looked this season?
Trent (Layton, UT)
So are you only guaranteed an automatic BCS bid if you are in the top 4 and are a AQ school? Is that why prior to BSU's loss there were talks of one of the Non AQs being left out?
Brad Edwards (12:09 PM)
Good question. Yes, the clause that allows a team to be guaranteed an at-large spot with a top-four finish only applies to AQ-conference teams. Non-AQ teams are guaranteed an at-large berth by being the highest ranked of that group. If TCU or Boise had been ranked No. 3, and the other one was ranked No. 2, the 3rd-ranked team would've been guaranteed nothing.
Brad Edwards (12:09 PM)
I have heard a few times that if Auburn and Oregon lose, Stanford has a chance to move into the Nat Champ game. How is that when they didn't win the Pac 10? If anyone would move up I think it would be Wisconsin..
Brad Edwards (12:14 PM)
My opinion is that voters would elevate Wisconsin to being the highest-ranked one-loss team if Auburn and Oregon both lose. Stanford would be stronger than Wisconsin in the computers, but not nearly as strong as Auburn with a loss. How far Auburn and Oregon would fall in the polls obviously depends on the scores of their games Saturday, but that would determine how everything would shake out. I think I'd give Auburn the best chance of finishing second, followed by Wisconsin and then Stanford. I know I'll have a chaotic Saturday night and Sunday if that happens!
Brad Edwards (12:16 PM)
Thanks, everyone. If you haven't already downloaded it, be sure to get the Bowl Bound app for the iPhone or Droid. In addition to tons of great ESPN college football content, you can get my updates throughout the week on how the remaining games will impact the overall bowl picture. Final chat next Monday. Have a great week.