Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

Good morning everyone! It's all fair game today, baseball, football, whatever you wish. Let's get right to your questions!

Joe S. (East Windsor, NJ)

How in the world do you rank Angel Pagan as the #237 player in fantasy baseball after he finished #37 last year? There is no FA or prospect that will take his job next year and his #s are consistent with his career #s on a per AB basis. I know you'll bark injuries but for your prediction to come to fruition you Pagan will essentially HAVE to suffer an injury which significantly shortens his season to justify your rank. Oh yeah, and Beltran and FMart have both gotten bad news on their legs in last few months. Again. What's your problem?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Angel Pagan had a tremendous 2010, no doubt, and it's why I unquestionably wanted him ranked as a draft-day candidate in all fantasy formats for 2011. That said, I think his 2010 has to be considered his statistical ceiling. Let's face it, the guy turns 30 this summer (in July), and much of his value was driven by the 37 steals. His BABIP was .331 but he hit more fly balls than line drives. I just think he's really a .290-hitting, 25-steal type, yes, consistent, but not worthy of an early-round pick. I could be wrong, I just think we saw his best is all.

Chris Fiegler (Latham,NY)

Who do you think will play in Super Bowl XLV?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Steelers versus Eagles.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

Knowing full well I'm completely ignoring the Eagles' defensive issues. It's just that I love what that offense can bring to the table and the NFC is wide open.

Jon (iowa) [via mobile]

Never too early for baseball..10 team keeper Kemp/Soto or McCann/Hellickson??

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:05 AM)

All keeper candidates for sure, but when I look at that, I see Geovany Soto as an underrated pick, a guy who could still go .270-20 with relative ease and perhaps do better. In which case, is he that much less valuable than Brian McCann? I think not. Matt Kemp, meanwhile, has his best years ahead of him, is entering his prime and is a power/speed type. I'm taking the Kemp/Soto side.

Franklin (Santa Cruz)

Tristsan, if your final keeper came down to Carlos Beltran and Torii Hunter, which one would you lean towards? IF Beltran plays, I feel he has a much better chance to be elite. Do I go for the double (Hunter) or swing for the home run (Beltran)?? Thank you.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

I think you laid it out pretty well right there, and I'll admit that Carlos Beltran's ceiling is at least as good as Torii Hunter's. That said, the risk is probably three times as great, and at this early stage of the winter, I can't possibly take that kind of chance. I'd want to see Beltran getting fantastic health reports in spring training before I'd go that far.

Goose (Chicago)

Do you have any faith in AJ Burnett this season?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

One thing to point out about Burnett is that he was actually a useful matchups type; he beat bad teams and was slaughtered by the good ones. Problem is, he's in a division loaded with good ones, and that's not changing this year. So yes, I see hope, but let's set 2009 as a realistic high-end expectation for him. In other words, maybe a late-rounder, perhaps depending upon spring progress, but I think the Rothschild factor helps.

Al (Seattle)

Hey Tristan, pick my last keeper: Wainwright or Lincecum to pair up with Votto and Utley.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

Tim Lincecum. I still think that when he's on, he's as good as they come. Just a slightly higher ceiling, mainly because of all those K's.

connor w. (Pittsburgh, PA)

With solid production at the end of the season is Pedro Alvarez a good early to middle round pick.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

Absolutely. Just worry about the batting average, because a 200-K guy is not going to help you in that department. Just ask Mark Reynolds; heck, Alvarez could have that kind of a year, minus the steals. I'm thinking more like .250-30 though, but that's a fine mid-round pick (think 10th-roundish).

Gray (Chicago)

Did the arrival of Adrian Beltre actually increase the fantasy value of Michael Young?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

In that he might be a DH/utilityman who could earn eligibility all over the infield, yes.

christian (seattle)

Are you one of the people that believes the Seahawks have NO CHANCE against the Saints?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:12 AM)

Hey, they've got a home game and they're a playoff team, so there's always a "chance," but realistically speaking, outside of Week 17 the Seahawks were as awful as any NFL team in December, they've got no pass defense and the Saints have a loaded passing game and I watched that Week 17 game, it sure seemed to me like neither team really played like it had the firepower to win. I can't pick the Seahawks, just can't.

Jim (Boston)

KEEPER QUESTIONWe keep 7 --- I have 5 solid keepers,need two of these, Jeter,Prado or Aram.THANK YOU

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

Martin Prado and Derek Jeter, and that's ignoring the fact that third base is thin, I know. I just see better numbers coming from those two.

Dan (Cleveland, OH)

Tristan, what would be your strategy for a 12 team keeper draft where most of the best backs are already taken? Still stock up on RB's or take best available?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

Best available, but don't allow yourself to go without a running back. Pool can dry up very quickly.

Jeff (Atlanta, GA)

Pitchers and catchers report in a just over a month, so time to talk baseball, the best Fantasy sport. I'm looking for a long term keeper at 3B, but being only able to keep 5 guys is tough. Who would you prefer: Pedro Alvarez or Mike Moustakis?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:14 AM)

I actually like both prospects quite a bit, but Alvarez has massive power potential, and I think at this stage he's slightly more proven (e.g. more success at higher competitive levels for longer). Again, batting average is an issue but I want the prospect of right-now stats over 2012 stats.

Adam (NYC)

Who would you rather have for 2011 alone - Morneau or Lincecum? My other keepers are Liriano, Heyward, Posey, and Price.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

Tim Lincecum hands down. I'm not sure why Justin Morneau seems to be getting a free pass for his concussion issues. It's a concern.

Zak (Poughkeepsie, NY)

Not making the decision til mid-next year, but want you opinion... keeping Nicks for a 4th rounder, I get one more. Hillis or Tebow for a last round pick? (Assume Tebow starts, I guess)

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

I'd go Peyton Hillis, but then I firmly believe it's easier to fill quarterback in a fantasy league, especially keeper. If everyone is hoarding the running backs, then Hillis as a last-rounder is a no-brainer.

Jordan (Casper, Wy)

I have Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Mike Stanton locked up in my keeper league for the next decade. No question, I just wanted to brag.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:16 AM)

Jordan = man with target symbol on his back in that league.

Jordan (Casper, Wy)

What do you think of Jose Tabata? Is he worth keeping in the 15th round?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

No, as I did an early mock in December and he actually slid into the 20th-round range if I recall, and that seemed appropriate to me. Remember, 15th round is usually a pick in the 150 range, and I just don't see Tabata contributing anything elite in any category but steals. Which is fine, but those types are late-rounders.

Jeff (Albany, NY)

Rankings aside, with a #5 pick in a roto draft, would you pick Tulo, Cano, or Votto? Basically position scarcity vs. overall numbers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

I wouldn't criticize any of the three picks, but Joey Votto ranked higher in my recent top 250 (which is available on the site).

jack (ohio)

Lance Berkman is that what i can expect 75 20 75 .280 2 ?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

Without adjustment (meaning not tweaking for the team/ballpark changes) I had him projected at .269-19-73-69, so I think you're overestimating slightly. Though, not by much. I have a hunch my projection will remain just about where it was.

Eric (Chicago)

Tristan, the Japanese player who is now the Twins MI...wherever he is eligible for, would you start him either at 2B or SS on your starting lineup in fantasy?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

I think he's an appropriate middle-infield selection in any league, even standard ESPN mixed. In other words, a guy who belongs in the late rounds in those, and probably starts in AL-only.

Jackson (Boston)

What's your next year's top 10 Fantasy Football Rankings?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

I ranked all positions' top 10s in my final "Instant Replay" of the season: http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/football/ffl/story?page=instant110102

Jordan (Casper, Wy)

Are you going to write a top Keepers List before Spring Training?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:22 AM)

Since you asked, sure. Just give me a few weeks, as getting the 2011 projections/etc. in gear is a top priority right now.

Eric (Chicago)

Does Brett Gardner's wrist injury concern you for 2011?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

His second-half batting average (.232) concerns me more, but yes, the wrist is a worry as well because it increases the chances the batting average remains low. I have a feeling Gardner might be like the aforementioned Tabata; great base stealer who contributes very little else. I have him projected at .260 with 45 steals, so I'm hesitant.

Brian (Manhattan)

Hey Tristan,In a 5 keeper mixed league, is it possible to keep McCutchen at $28? Or is that too high? Thanks

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:25 AM)

I don't think he'll come much cheaper in the auction. Consider what happens if you let him go; inflation will surely drive his price up to that level. I'd be more comfortable with Andrew McCutchen in the low-$20s, but I'd probably keep him if I wasn't overflowing with stronger choices.

Eric (Chicago)

Good morning Tristan! H2H points league, pick 3 to go with Holliday and Lester: Bautista in the last round, Ubaldo in the 10th, Cano in the 7th, N. Cruz in the 8th, Bruce in the 15th or Ethier in the 6th. Thanks much!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

I can build a case for every one of those candidates, but I'll say that Andre Ethier is probably priced closest to his expected ADP (meaning he's probably least worth keeping), while Robinson Cano will be the highest-ADP of the bunch. He's a first-rounder costing you a seventh and he fills a tough position, so I'd pick him, much as Jose Bautista is tempting at that price.

Bill (Boston)

Keeper question in which I need to keep two of the following and I'll lose the respective draft slot next year.Hillis - 13th rndMoreno - 7th rndB. Wells - 13th rndSh. Greene 12th rndVernon Davis - 13th rnd

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

Hard to say what Greene's role is going to be next season, and Davis is nicely priced, but I'd be hard-pressed to pick anyone but Peyton Hillis and Knowshon Moreno there.

Brian (Portland)

What do you expect out of Salty this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

I have to admit I'm surprised the Red Sox would really consider Jarrod Saltalamacchia a starting catcher, but as things stand, he's the favorite. And he's as unpredictable as they come, because for all the talent he has, he has been largely inconsistent, primarily due to injuries. I could see him hitting .260 with 15-20 homers just as easily as I could see the Red Sox getting sick of him as their catcher as quickly as they did Alan Embree their closer in that year they went committee (2003?), meaning, before May 1.

Jordan (Casper, Wy)

Which pitcher has the most upside this year? Garza, Cain, Oswalt or Hanson

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

Tommy Hanson. Strictly speaking to his upside, if he's a top-five fantasy starting pitcher at year's end I won't be surprised in the slightest.

Gray (Chicago)

Which positions look most shallow heading into 2011?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:30 AM)

Third base, shortstop. I've been in multiple mock drafts where people talked about third base as they did catcher in NL-only leagues about five years ago (as in, bone dry).

Del (Chicago)

Give me some players you'd be disappointed not to get in MLB drafts this upcoming season. Any mid to late round targets you MUST have?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:33 AM)

The aforementioned Hanson, Mike Stanton, Curtis Granderson, Brandon Morrow, Shaun Marcum, Ian Desmond (projected ADP makes him a great buy considering what's left at his position in the late rounds), Jhoulys Chacin (huge fan), Craig Kimbrel...

Mike (Indy)

What are your top 10 for a playoff draft. Format only 2 pick-ups, QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,TE,K,Def. Do you lean toward picking all Steelers and Eagles if those are your Super Bowl picks? Thanks!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

Eric Karabell did an excellent job of the playoff rankings right here, but I actually don't do specific rankings for that. I can say this: I will be drafting heavily on AFC teams, Steelers and Patriots in particular. I think the champ comes from the AFC this year, and I don't think the Super Bowl is all that close.

Roger (CT)

Any players that you think will be undervalued on draft day due to unlucky 2010 seasons?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:35 AM)

Fellow Blue Jay teammates Aaron Hill and Adam Lind immediately come to mind.

Declan (Hopewell Junction, NY)

Hey Tristan,I'm sick of my same old strategy of waiting for bargains.Last year, the market dried up when I had a plethora of dollars.Can Stars and Scrubs win in a mixed league auction?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Absolutely it can. Heck, there are some many worthwhile in-season pickups, I almost require that you keep 5-7 spots in the low-bid ($1-3) range just so that you're not attached to the picks and are prepared to drop them as priorities change in-season. The deeper the league, the harder to make Stars-'n'-Scrubs work. The shallower? The more brilliant the strategy, I say.

Inquiring Minds (Wanting to know)

Why do you wait for bargains using STARS and scrubs?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:39 AM)

I think what he meant was that he sits back in an auction and waits only for guys to sell beneath the AAP (average auction prices). I've seen so many teams -- even those manned by smart owners -- fall prey to this trap; you sit around and then you wind up overpaying for garbage in the later stages of the auction. I actually find that it's good to be aggressive in the early stages these days, so long as you like the player; there is so much bad advice out there saying the old cliche, "Show up to your auction an hour early," that the overall value seems to have shifted in the opposite direction.

Dave (Tampa)

So with the depth of the 3B pool, would you keep Alex Rodriguez (he's not really ARod anymore) over a 1B like Teixeira or Fielder?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

You said it best: "He's not really A-Rod anymore." He's top-25, I guess, but I'm not excited to rank him there, I just see the Yankees providing him every opportunity to put up the kind of numbers that will land him there (think runs/RBIs). I'm going both first basemen over A-Rod.

Jack (CA)

Hey Tristan,What injured player from 2010 will have the biggest comeback in baseball and in football?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:41 AM)

I'll make this clear upfront, that this is a complete and total gut feeling: I see Brandon Webb and Ryan Grant both bouncing back in big ways. Because it's a quick, five-second gut reaction, maybe they're not the biggest comebacks (hard to scroll through the names in your head that quickly), but I've got this good feeling about both.

Pacman (Tomahawk Chopville)

Freddie Freeman is he the 1st Baseman the Braves can count on and what should a Brave fan expect from him?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:44 AM)

My worry with Freddie Freeman is Chipper Jones; if healthy, Jones mans third, Dan Uggla's at second, Alex Gonzalez at short and that means Martin Prado might very well wind up at first base if Freeman can't handle the gig during the spring. Let's say I'm 75-percent confident Freeman makes the team, Prado's in left, and that the rookie goes, say, .275-15 (upside to 20 HR). But there's risk there.

Blake (Abilene, TX)

From a fantasy perspective, how much does Beltre's defense at 3b improve the pitching of the Rangers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:45 AM)

I would love to be a Texas Rangers pitcher right now, knowing I have Beltre and Elvis Andrus on the left side of my infield. Heads up: Brandon Webb is an extreme ground-baller. There's a reason my gut says what it does.

Mike (San Diego)

In fantasy football, usually over half of the top 10 in total points at year's end comes from the QB position, but nobody drafts QBs that early because you can get a QB that is 80% of a Vick or Rodgers much much later. Yet in baseball, there are a TON of 1st basemen taken at the top of drafts. Why is baseball different?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

In a standard ESPN league, only 10 quarterbacks are started at any given time, so the value over replacement player isn't as high as it is at first base. Yes, first base is deep in baseball, but it's also a position that fills your HR-RBI-R categories as well as any, and you can be sure that the 16th-best first baseman is going to be drafted. In football? The 16th-best quarterback might be drafted, but I can assure you that he won't be started (at least not initially).

Jordan (Casper, Wy)

Does EY Jr. get enough ABs to steal 60 this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:48 AM)

Jose Lopez might have something to say about that. While I like Young, I think it's a spring battle and Lopez probably rebounds enough to make the team and cut into Young's at-bats.

Dan (LA)

To follow up on Brian's Salty question, does it ease your concerns that Boston quickly laid claim to Max Ramirez who doesn't suffer from the yips and has just as much offensive potential?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

I think the Red Sox just like Max Ramirez (as do I); remember that he was the guy in last winter's Mike Lowell trade that quickly dissolved. Here's the problem with Ramirez: He can hit, but I'm not sure he can catch. He strikes me as a DH, and a part-timer, kind of in the Chris Shelton or Ryan Doumit mold.

F.Codero (Cincinnati)

does chapman take over my closing duties in 2011 am i worth keeping over bumgarder???

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

Aroldis Chapman is a curious case entering 2011; it sure sounds like he'll be a reliever. If that's true, on raw talent alone he might overtake Francisco Cordero by midseason. But I think the Reds pay Cordero to close and close he shall, unless he's simply dreadful. So don't be hasty.As a side note, I'd still keep Madison Bumgarner over Francisco Cordero, even if there were no Chapman.

Scott (Denver)

Not so much a fantasy question, but which contract is better: CarGo's or Tulo's? Who's better in 3 years?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:52 AM)

You're right, that's not a fantasy question, so defense comes into play here. I know Carlos Gonzalez's contract is cheaper than Troy Tulowitzki's, but I'm more confident in Tulowitzki's ability to maintain value, and if I'm picking a shortstop to build around, he's my first pick and it's not as close as you think. I'm taking his.

jack (ohio)

Traded Johan the other day, for Webb, Crisp, and Meek in your opinion will Webb help me or hurt me? I want him to do well not just because i now have him in fantasy but i really liked watching this guy pitch a few years ago he was that good

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

I think it's natural for people to expect Johan Santana to be the more valuable pitcher in 2011, but everything I hear has him out until the All-Star break, whereas Webb at least has a chance to be ready by April or May. I don't think these two are far off in terms of value, to be honest, though I wouldn't be confident in any of the four as a keeper. A lot of risk.

Jason (Long Island, NY)

Rebound year for Justin Upton? Thoughts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

Oodles of talent, so sure, he could rebound. But the reason I didn't rank him earlier than I did is that I worry about his shoulder; I think it contributed to his lackluster 2010 stats. He didn't have it surgically repaired, so it's a worry, but I'd keep an eye on him in the spring to see if he's fine then. I need to see some sort of spark in him before I'd expect huge things.

Carlos Pena (North Side of Chicago)

Hey TC, Would you rather have me, or Adam LaRoche in Washington?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

Depends how comfortable you are with a batting-average killer on your roster. I am, so I'm taking Pena, because the guy could bat .230 but club 35 home runs in Wrigley. LaRoche? No chance he hits that many.

Matt (Philly)

What do you see out of Delmon this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:59 AM)

I actually really like Delmon Young, though I admit that I have for a long time. Remember, the guy's what, 25? (Might be 26, haven't opened the spreadsheet to be exact.) In other words, he's only now entering his prime, and he sure looked like a guy who was ramping up for the prime-year stat outburst in 2010. Let's say I'm setting the baseline at .290-20 numbers, and I think there's noticeable upside from those (think 30 homers possibly).

Mike (San Diego)

You seem low on Torii Hunter this year. Do you just think he's going to stop running?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

I think he "stopped running" last year, when he swiped nine bases, his fewest since 2003. Let's face it, Hunter is a good player, but he's getting older and his career downturn has started; I think he's a .275-20/10-SB player at best, and I wouldn't be expecting much more than that.

Jay (Chicago)

Colby Rasmus or Adam Jones in a dynasty league? Who should I keep and who should I deal?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

It's partly a gut instinct, but I think Rasmus' ceiling is considerably higher for fantasy.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

OK, time to wrap things up for today. Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I couldn't get to yours. Take care everyone!