Klaw

  (2:01 PM)

CIRCLED

Brady the Eskimo (Frigid Minnesota)

You're going to get a million Hall questions today, many dealing with Blyleven, so please answer mine. I've studied the numbers, he seems like he should've been elected by his fourth or fifth year at the latest. Do you think there is a REASONABLE case to be made against him not being in the hall, or is he a more than deserving candidate?

Klaw

  (2:02 PM)

No, there was not. And now my fellow Internet Zealots and I can move on to stumping for Tim Raines.

Bob (Tinley Park, IL)

Larry Walker's extreme splits indicate his candidacy mainly based on Coors field, agree?

Klaw

  (2:04 PM)

I'm going to start with mostly HoF questions, but I am queuing up others for later. As for Walker, I think lack of bulk is an issue with him. He was a very good hitter in any park, but I think if you strip out Coors and look at his playing time he falls just short.

HBG (NYC)

Alomar in with 90% - surprised given last year's showing?

Klaw

  (2:06 PM)

No, two things at work. One, all the morons who believe in arbitrary "first ballot" distinctions and omitted him on that basis added him. Two, he got a boost from writers who felt that they should support him if nearly 75% of their colleagues did, or who didn't want to be responsible for leaving him out, or who just saw the critical reaction and rethought their positions.

Jerod (Portland, OR)

How can you not support Morris for the Hall? He was the most feared Opening Day starter of his generation!

Klaw

  (2:09 PM)

Has there been a more intellectually bankrupt HOF argument than the "you had to be there" one? It's the worst appeal to authority, one that discriminates on occupation, age, even gender. It's a clear acknowledgement that the argument can't be won on facts, so the speaker has to resort to a backdoor attempt to shut it down by undermining your right to even make a case against Morris. And it's wildly revisionist - I was a rabid fan in the 1980s, and I remember nearly all of Morris' career. He wasn't the guy on the Tigers who was seen as the likely HoFer, nor was he the clear star or the guy you "feared" - Trammell and Whitaker were the marquee players on those clubs. Whether that makes them HOFers or not is beside the point; the point is that claiming that Morris was is revisionist subjectivity.

John (Menlo Park, CA)

I can't stand this "first ballot" nonsense. The stats don't change. You are either worthy or not. What is it going to take for more writers to vote for Raines?

Klaw

  (2:10 PM)

A gradual change in the electorate. You have too many voters in the pool who refuse to evolve even though the executives running the teams they cover changed their thinking on player value five to ten years ago.

Kirk (The TC)

Does Barry Larkin have the trajectory to eventually get in?

Klaw

  (2:10 PM)

I think he's close to a lock at this point. And that's a very good thing.

Marc (Kingston, NH)

Safe to assume that half of the voters felt that Bagwell "cheated"?

Klaw

  (2:11 PM)

I sincerely hope not. Omitting a player because you believe he cheated despite zero evidence and clear denials is a good reason to abstain from voting in the future.

Jason (Nashville )

I'm glad people like Rich Lederer exist.

Klaw

  (2:12 PM)

Seconded. Congratulations to Rich, as Blyleven's election is at least in part due to Rich's efforts to spell out his case. I hope Rich makes it to Cooperstown for the ceremony.

Ben (SF)

Do you think steroid allegations will prevent "no doubt" candidates like Bonds and Clemens from getting in the HoF, or do you think it will just be used to discredit borderline candidates like Palmeiro and McGuire?

Klaw

  (2:14 PM)

Those will be outstanding test cases. I think Bonds gets in anyway, since he was on a HOF path before his power spike, but Clemens struggles, as before he went to Toronto he didn't have enough bulk to be a HOFer, and I think many will argue that he used PEDs to get healthy.

Klaw

  (2:14 PM)

Surhoff got another vote?

Klaw

  (2:15 PM)

Wow, I just noticed Palmeiro way down the list. That's not a good sign for Bonds, whom the media hated when he played.

Tom (NY)

Will there ever be a 100% voted in player?

Klaw

  (2:15 PM)

Jack O'Connell, BBWAA secretary, has said many times he doesn't think so, and I believe him. He knows the voting patterns and voter philosophies better than anyone. Maddux will be the test case there, as I fear a very negative reaction toward any voter who omits him.

Nick (Topeka)

This is a future hall of fame question, how good of a chance does John Smoltz have in your view to get into the hall of fame within the first 5 years of being on the ballot?

Klaw

  (2:17 PM)

I would/will vote for him. Unusual case means he lacks direct comparables, but I think the overall body of work is more than sufficient. They should hold three adjacent spots open for him, Glavine, and Maddux.

Alex Rodriguez (Corner of Fear St. and Morris Blvd.)

So if Bonds is no-go, and Clemens, and Rafi and Mac and Bags too, then I won't ever take my 700+ homers to Cooperstown without a guest ticket, will I?

Klaw

  (2:18 PM)

I could just be idealistic, but I think A-Rod waltzes in.

Nick (Allston, MA)

What happens when an inducted HOFer is revealed to have used PEDs? Do they move to kick him out? If not, how would voters justify not voting for the best players of their era?

Klaw

  (2:22 PM)

As far as I know there's no procedure for taking a player out of the Hall.

Tim Raines (Relative Obscurity, USA)

And yet if I was of, say, a much paler complexion...

Klaw

  (2:26 PM)

I made this argument about him and Molitor in a piece two years ago, including how cocaine users are viewed differently within the media.

Klaw

  (2:26 PM)

I made this argument about him and Molitor in a piece two years ago, including how cocaine users are viewed differently within the media.

Charles (San Jose)

KLaw, are you allowed to comment on Barry Stanton's ballot?

Klaw

  (2:28 PM)

I don't think that I should.

Klaw

  (2:28 PM)

(Because of company policy, not because I think something bad about Barry Stanton.)

Dan (DC)

Did you disclose your hypothetical ballot somewhere? I'm guessing Alomar, Blyleven, Raines, Trammell, Larkin, Bagwell and Edgar.

Klaw

  (2:29 PM)

And McGwire.

Bobby (Worcester, MA)

Do you have a problem with recreational drug users in baseball if it doesn't affect their work ethic/ability? It seems that they become outcasts.

Klaw

  (2:31 PM)

As a writer/voter, no, as long as it doesn't affect on-field performance or pose a risk to others (e.g., drunk driving, which I find unforgivable). I know current major leaguers who enjoy a little weed now and then, and I don't think it's right for me to judge their baseball merits on that basis.

Dan (DC)

Why no for Palmeiro for you? The counting stats just aren't that meaningful to you?

Klaw

  (2:34 PM)

I'm much more interested in peak than bulk, and Palmeiro was never really elite, just very good for a long time. I wouldn't argue with his selection, but I do believe a HOFer should have been among the best 3-5 players in the game at some point, or have been the best in baseball at his position, or something along those lines.

Andrew (Poughkeepsie, NY)

Keith, when you are scouting a position player, which offensive tool do you consider the most important? I guess what I'm asking is, how would you rank the ability to a) make contact, b) hit for power, and c) control the strike zone, in terms of how indicative they are of future performance?

Klaw

  (2:35 PM)

Swing path/mechanics. It's not an absolute, but I think it's the best long-term indicator of hitting ability, especially when we're looking at a HS kid where statistics are unavailable or impossible to interpret.

Stephen (Sacramento)

I have the feeling that Trout will regress this year. He is to overhyped!

Klaw

  (2:35 PM)

Excess hype causes regression?

Kevin (New Jersey)

KLaw: Do you think what happened with Kyle Parker will have an influence on Bubba Starling's decision as to whether to sign a major league contract or play QB for Nebraska? And although you have written that you like him as a pitching prospect better, I would love to see how his athleticism will translate as a full time outfielder playing only baseball. Your thoughts?

Klaw

  (2:36 PM)

I like Starling as a position player and a pitcher, actually. I think the cases are dissimilar as Starling is a much, much better baseball prospect. Rumor is that he'll be a very tough sign in the draft this year, but we've seen many impossible signs end up signing, like Zach Lee.

Klaw

  (2:36 PM)

I like Starling as a position player and a pitcher, actually. I think the cases are dissimilar as Starling is a much, much better baseball prospect. Rumor is that he'll be a very tough sign in the draft this year, but we've seen many impossible signs end up signing, like Zach Lee.

Zack (CT)

Thoughts on the Beltre contract? I know he's an elite defender, but geez 80m until he's 36?

Klaw

  (2:36 PM)

Would rather him on his deal than Werth on his.

Derek "calm eyes" Jeter (Bronx)

I think I will be the ultimate 100% of the vote test cast, right?

Klaw

  (2:38 PM)

Don't know. Is he more polarizing as a Yankee, so perhaps some non-NY writer decides to omit him? Maddux seems so utterly uncontroversial.

Garrett (Scottsdale, AZ)

If Bagwell deserves no suspicion, then neither does Sammy Sosa, correct? (zero evidence and clear denials).60 WAR, MVP, three 60+ HR seasons, an 11.4 WAR season in 2001 (!)...that's a HOFer.

Klaw

  (2:39 PM)

Zero evidence? Didn't he reportedly test positive in 2003?

Jon (NYC)

Is Capuano decent gamble or just more Wilpon money set on fire?

Klaw

  (2:40 PM)

I'm not a big Capuano fan, or even a small one. Pretty severe finesse guy. Some of them can survive in the NL, but I don't feel like he's the one who'll transcend the lack of stuff.

bubblesdachimp (DC)

KLAW dont you have a problem with the Sosa leak from an anonymous source who saw classified info? Sounds like nonsense to me

Klaw

  (2:41 PM)

I have a problem with how the media have covered the PED issue in baseball from day one, including every name leaked from the list of 100 illegally seized by federal investigators. I'm just saying Sosa and Bagwell aren't the same story.

Tim (STL)

The Jeff Bagwell debate really bugs me. A guy who has never been linked to steroids, is one of the great players of the game, will likely not make it into the Hall of Fame. The reason? He worked out too much. Maybe he shouldn't have worked as hard. What a great lesson to learn.

Klaw

  (2:42 PM)

That's a good argument, actually. Be good, just not too good, or we'll take you down a peg.

Tim (Boston)

Sosa got caught with a corked bat so he clearly cheated at one point. Is there a difference with that and PEDs?

Klaw

  (2:42 PM)

Since corked bats don't actually help, wouldn't that be more a case of incompetence than cheating?

Dan (Stockton, CA)

Is Nick Noonan a non-prospect at this point? What about Conor Gillaspie?

Klaw

  (2:43 PM)

Not optimistic about either guy. Gillaspie doesn't use his lower half at all and so he hits for zero power.

Isaac (NYC)

Will CC opt out this year? I can't see why he wouldnt, assuming he pitches well again.

Klaw

  (2:45 PM)

I believe he will.

Rich (Denver)

Keith,Do you think Benelous can win the 5th stater role out of spring training for the Yankees?

Klaw

  (2:45 PM)

Belgium-Netherlands-...Lousiana? And no, I don't think they'll let Banuelos break camp as the fifth starter.

Sean (Seattle)

Is Rendon going to slip to #2?

Klaw

  (2:46 PM)

I don't think he's a lock at 1-1. I still think George Springer has to get consideration there, as well as Gerrit Cole.

Joe (DC)

Are we so sure steroids actually help?

Klaw

  (2:46 PM)

I'm not, and that's why I dislike playing the steroid game in HOF voting. Even if we're sure they help, do we know how much they help?

James (Naperville)

Just read Rob's piece on the potential of no one getting elected next year. Keith, do you think that the mere potential--however unlikely--of no one getting elected will force the Hall's hand to take a stance on PED voting? It would seem to me that now is the time.

Klaw

  (2:48 PM)

I think enough voters will see the possibility of no one getting in that they'll coalesce around one candidate. I'd hope it would be Larkin or Raines. I fear we'll get another year of Morris drivel. I wonder if Bernie Williams will get a NY/famous/awesome guy boost.

eric (sf)

Where does Brandon Belt rank in your top 100? Top 25? What is his ceiling? 30 Hrs?

Klaw

  (2:49 PM)

I'm not answering any ranking questions until the ranking comes out later this month. No sense in pre-empting myself. I'd say 25-plus HR power.

Jon (DC)

Should smokers and greenie users be kept out of the Hall, along with the roiders and HGHers? They both arguably enhance performance. Where do we draw the line?

Klaw

  (2:50 PM)

This is where I feel like we're making a moral argument, somehow deciding that steroids and HGH are "wrong" but amphetamines aren't. I am very uncomfortable in that realm. I can give you moral arguments, but when it comes time to vote, I'm not imposing my own personal sense of morality on anyone else.

Mike (San Diego)

I thought cork made the bat lighter and thus helped increase bat speed, thus giving the player a power advantage. I could be wrong though.

Klaw

  (2:51 PM)

I'm going off Robert Adair's Physics of Baseball. I believe he argued there was no effect.

Peter (NYC)

I agree with you that we can't discount an entire generation of power hitters when it comes to the HOF. But can't we be fairly sure that steroids helped performance, at least for HR? How else do you explain the HR leaderboards of the late 90's, early 00's? It's amazing when you see some of the stat lines that didn't get a single MVP vote because we were numb to 40 HR seasons to an extent.

Klaw

  (2:52 PM)

Two expansions one after another - expansions tend to cause a spike in extreme performances (cough1961cough). And I'm in the camp of people who believe MLB changed the ball, with tighter stitching.

Jason (Seattle, WA)

"I can give you moral arguments, but when it comes time to vote, I'm not imposing my own personal sense of morality on anyone else."...except on drunk drivers?

Klaw

  (2:52 PM)

That's not morality. It's a tangible externality.

Bob (Tinley Park, IL)

What's your take on the CarGo extension?

Klaw

  (2:53 PM)

Better for the player than for the team. CarGo's very good but also kind of flawed, and I think they bought high. That and the Tulo deal are huge bets on salary inflation going forward.

J.P. (JC)

Don't forget smaller ballparks, Coors Field/Mile High, change in bats(thinner handles, larger barrels), etc. contributing to the HR's in the "steroid" era.

Klaw

  (2:54 PM)

Yep.

Steve (San Jose)

I'm so confused. Why is Bagwell being associated with PED's? Because he played at the same time as guys who did? Well so did Jeter, Pujols, Maddux, Glavine, Unit, Pedro, Mariano, and Ichiro. Who gets to decide who gets lumped into this?

Klaw

  (2:54 PM)

The voters, apparently.

Jamie (Canada)

Does Wieters finally figure things out this year?

Klaw

  (2:55 PM)

I'll vote yes.

Jack (Toronto)

I don't think your assessment that PEDs don't help performance is accurate. Everything I've read about them talks about recovery time. Which obviously means players will be able to perform at a higher level for longer. Ie, playing less games through aches and pains. Less dead arm periods for pitchers. I understand and somewhat agree that it doesn't help a guy perform at a level they could never achieve without them. But it allows them to do it more often.

Klaw

  (2:55 PM)

So do cortisone and ibuprofen and chiropractic treatment. I have no objection to a player trying to get healthy faster.

Paul C (Somerville, MA)

With the Royals obtaining A Escobar for SS, what does this mean forChristian Colon?

Klaw

  (2:56 PM)

Right now, nothing. But it could mean Colon eventually moves to 2b if both guys pan out.

Joel (Shanghai)

On what do you base your defensive evaluations? RF seems too simplistic, UZR too sporadic.

Klaw

  (2:57 PM)

Visual observation first, supplemented with statistics.

Avi (New Jersey)

Steroids are PROVEN to increase strength and muscle mass. More strength = more power.

Klaw

  (2:57 PM)

No, more strength does not equal more power. Power comes from bat speed and leverage - from your lower half, primarily, and steroids tend to build upper body mass.

Klaw

  (2:58 PM)

But hey, I'm glad you put PROVEN in caps. That's, like, what, doubleproven?

Kevin (Toronto)

Given that he can't get lefties out, the Jays are smart enough not to make Dotel their full-time closer, right?

Klaw

  (2:58 PM)

I assume so.

Lev (Boston)

Keith what do you think about this idea? If a player receives 90 or even 95% of the vote, if you didn't vote for him then you lose your ability to vote. At least for a year.

Klaw

  (2:59 PM)

Horrible. It's fine for us to dissect and argue over ballots, but no one should lose the right to move unless there's evidence of bad faith.

Matt (Chicago)

Is there an ace among Archer, McNutt, and Cashner?

Klaw

  (3:00 PM)

If you believe Cashner will develop an average changeup AND can hold up for 200 innings, I would buy that he has ace potential.

Jonathan (Tampa)

What about turning in a blank ballot to prove a point?

Klaw

  (3:01 PM)

That would qualify as bad faith in my book, but I don't make the BBWAA's rules. I was thinking more specifically about, say, taking a bribe for a vote.

David (Oklahoma)

Is Archie Bradley a legit 1st rounder? Please say no, i want him to play football for the sooners next year.

Klaw

  (3:02 PM)

Yes.

Steve (NYC)

My problem, and Poz made this point better than anyone else can yesterday, is the lack of accountability of the electorate. Making the ballots public can only yield positive results in my view.

Klaw

  (3:02 PM)

I would agree with that. If I end up with a HOF ballot (in 2018!) I will reveal it each year. I'd have nothing to hide.

Alan (Boston)

Really kind of stoked to see Tom cook tonight, how about you?

Klaw

  (3:04 PM)

Ditto.

Rick (Oakland)

I got Le Havre for Christmas. It's something of a cross between Agricola and Caylus. Have you tried it?

Klaw

  (3:04 PM)

Have not, but heard good things.

Garrett (Bakersfield, Ca)

Keith, I know that you panned the Dan Uggla extension and I agree that I wouldn't have wanted to give him 5 years, but from the Braves' perspective, with one more good year Uggla would have been in line for a 4 year contract from somone (perhaps longer if Rizzo really wanted him). Combined with their need for a right handed power hitter and lack of impact postitional prospects, is Uggla's potential impact over the next 5 years really outweighed by the risks of the deal?

Klaw

  (3:04 PM)

I see him declining quickly, stumbling around LF before the deal is over.

Naji (New York, NY)

Keith, what's up with all your hate toward Boston/Cambridge? Some animosity toward your alma mater?

Klaw

  (3:05 PM)

That might be the weirdest question I've gotten yet.

bardin (San Diego)

Have you played Agricola? Why can't the Angels get Beltre when he lives 20 minutes away from their stadium for heavens sake?

Klaw

  (3:06 PM)

I have, twice. Good game but long and complicated. Angels and Boras don't seem to play well together, and let's face it - you rarely get a free agent unless you're offering the most money in total or per year, and they haven't done so.

Eric (IA)

What type of knife set do you roll with? Chef knife or Santoku?

Klaw

  (3:06 PM)

Both.

Naji (New York, NY)

Didn't mean to come across as weird, just gleaned from previous chats that you were happy to be out of the Boston area.

Klaw

  (3:07 PM)

Yes, because it's 60 degrees here and the place is flooded with sunshine. I was in NY/NJ for the holidays, never saw 40 degrees, and watched two feet of snow fall.

Jack (Cleveland)

Tried playing Puerto Rico, seems like it would be fun, but a lot to pick up the first time around. Is it worth it?

Klaw

  (3:07 PM)

Yes. And yes, there's a lot going on, but the underlying game is actually not that complex.

Beau (NOLA)

T/F Fabio is the funniest (albeit not most talented) Top Chef contestant of the past two years?

Klaw

  (3:08 PM)

Yes. I'm thinking that's how he got the invite to TC:AS.

Eric (IA)

I should have clarified with 'what brand' knife set.

Klaw

  (3:08 PM)

Henckels but you don't need a brand that expensive.

Crazy Carl (Columbus)

Do your friends call you "Klaw" or "Keith" more often? Does anyone ever address you "Klaw"? You should get a tattoo of bear claw with a "K" inside the design.

Klaw

  (3:09 PM)

I've been "Klaw" to friends since high school.

Miles Roby (Empire Falls, ME)

Planning my trip out to Arizona for Spring Training. A) Any good Phoenix area eats recommendations? B) Will you be out there?

Klaw

  (3:09 PM)

A) check the dish, I've had a half-dozen posts over the last few years on eats here. B) most of the month, yes.

Tom (Chi)

Over under on how many more weeks Jamie lasts on Top Chef? 2?

Klaw

  (3:10 PM)

Sure. Did you see Eric Ripert's vlog on her? Ouch.

Aaron (LA)

Keith, it's kind of sad but with all the HOF nonsense of the last few years i really don't care who gets in and who doesnt - do you think the HOF is becoming less significant?

Klaw

  (3:11 PM)

My interest in the Hall is largely professional, tinged with an intellectual interest in seeing ignorance banished from the baseball writing field. I've been to Cooperstown once, twenty-plus years ago, and don't feel a driving need to go back.

Dave (RI)

I have a few friends who are very short and very sarcastic. Are you the same way, sarcastic because you're short?

Klaw

  (3:11 PM)

On the contrary, I'm short because I'm sarcastic. Excessive use of irony stunts your growth.

Brian (NJ)

More likely to win this season of Top Chef: Blais/Angelo or the Field?

Klaw

  (3:11 PM)

I'll give you the field.

Stephen (Sacramento)

Klaw (claw) or K-law?

Klaw

  (3:13 PM)

One syllable.

Joe (St. Louis)

Do you expect Ron Santo to get into the hall during the next Veteren's Committee selection? It's a damn tragedy that we'll never get to hear his acceptance speech

Klaw

  (3:13 PM)

Yes, because that's what we do when people die.

Jay (New York, NY)

I have a hard time picturing a successful finance journalist deciding not to even learn about a new method for valuing stocks. Why do sports writers get a pass?

Klaw

  (3:14 PM)

Beats me. Like I said, the GMs you're covering have changed their thinking. Isn't our job to follow them, and at least learn the new ideas and methods, even if we don't fully agree with them?

Jason (Ottawa)

Enough with all of this Top Chef nonsense, what do you think of the decision to censor Huckleberry Finn?

Klaw

  (3:15 PM)

Unacceptable. I hate the n-word as much as anyone, but pretending it never existed is not the answer.

Klaw

  (3:16 PM)

OK, back to the phones. Thanks for jumping to Wednesday this week - I'll be back to Thursdays starting next week.