Joe Lunardi

  (3:02 PM)

Greetings, all. Always great to talk hoops on a Friday!

Eugene (Cincinnati, OH)

Xavier is a team that has consistently been in the tournament with the exception of one season over the past 10 years and has a great run of postseason success recently. I know they lost 5 non-conference games this year, but all were to top 100 RPI teams (4 in the top 55). I know Xavier was not even in your First or Next 8 Out last week. After improving to 3-0 in the A-10 with home wins over UMass and Dayton this past week, what more will it take for them to get back into the at-large conversation?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:06 PM)

Xavier would be in the bracket now as the A-10 leader (3-0) with the best RPI. A win over Temple on Saturday would elevate both that status and their at-large chances.

Jon (Pittsburgh)

Joe, Love the bracket, keep'em coming!!! I realize Syracuse just lost to PITT, thus giving PITT a #1 Seed and bumping the 'Cuse to a #2. But Syracuses' overall numbers (RPI, SOS, NCSS, CSS, LRPI, More Top 25 Wins, same # of top 100 wins,) are better than those of 1-loss Duke (not too mentin a lose @PITT looking better than a lose @Fla. St.). Why would Syracuse drop below Duke? Does it have to do with Regions or other logistics? Or am I missing something in Duk's profile? Thanks

Joe Lunardi

  (3:08 PM)

Duke's profile doesn't exactly stink. I just think, today, the Committee would favor the ACC leader over the Big East runner-up. Long way to go, of course, and it wasn't that long ago there were three No. 1 seeds from the Big East. Very possible again, as it's hard to imagine both Ohio State and Kansas running the table.

BY (TN) [via mobile]

How did you earn the title 'expert bracketologist'? How can I follow your path?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:09 PM)

Don't bother, BY. The hours stink!

Todd (San Diego CA)

With the big game in Provo next week & SDSU looking at at least a #5 ranking by then assumming they beat Air Force, what would be their chances at #1 seed if they knock off BYU @ the Marriott Center?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:10 PM)

Todd, this is going to be an ongoing (and good) question the rest of the way. If and when SD State is the last of the unbeatens, that's when I believe they will be a No. 1 seed.

Daniel (Clemson SC)

what will it take for Clemson to be considered for the tourney? would a 9-7 ACC record be enough? thanks

Joe Lunardi

  (3:11 PM)

Don't think so, Daniel. The Tigers don't have out-of-conference and the league itself itself strong enough to carry a 9-7 team into the tournament.

Robert (Columbus, OH)

I noticed that Penn St made it into your Next Four Out grouping, and I think they deserve it (being an Ohio St fan and watching that game was unnerving). What's it going to take for Penn St to be considered for the bracket. Will the committee look past their bad non-conference losses if they end up .500 in the big ten with a handful of wins over the top half of the conference?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:12 PM)

Penn State is going to have to continue to overachieve to make the tournament. Pretty sure the Committee wouldn't value them as highly as I do right now. Beat one of the big-timers on the road, though, and the equation could/should change.

Randy Bennett (Moraga, CA)

Lets assume that SMC drops 3 games (@ Vandy, @ Gonzaga, and tje WCC Final) and win the rest - our good Bracket Buster game, Gonaga at home, 8 WCC fodder wins, and the WCC semi. 27-5 with no bad losses and two good wins. What's a rough percentage of us getting into the field of 68?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:14 PM)

I like your chances this year, Randy. Definitely have to beat Gonzaga at least once. And no "bad" losses, of course. Then again, the Committee and I rarely seem to agree on Saint Mary's.

Michael (Vienna, West Virginia)

What would you say the best case senario, seed wise, would be for West Virginia?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:16 PM)

For whatever reason, I have WVU lower than most. I'm not seeing a protected (top five) without clearer separation for West Virginia in the Big East.

Peter (Dodging Work)

What are the chances the MWC gets one team as a #1 seed? Two teams?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:16 PM)

One chance in four or five, I'd say.

David (Washington DC)

Isn't it unfair that the big east is the best conference in the country, but each BE team has many more losses in their record than other teams because they have to battle each other. Not only do certain bubble teams not get in, but the better ones have lower seeds because of losses to other BE teams

Joe Lunardi

  (3:18 PM)

You're not really complaining about 11 possible bids, are you? Any more and we may have to expand the field again!

Mike (Framingham,Ma)

Joe, The way teams like Mich St Illinois and Kansas St have come out of the gate not like people have expected do you think they have enough time to turn it around and still get a solid seed going into march?? thanks

Joe Lunardi

  (3:19 PM)

All will have solid seeds, Mike, except maybe Kansas State. Not sold on the Wildcats at this point.

John (Syracuse)

Do you think espn.com will ever get a game where the fans can project the brackets?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:19 PM)

That would be cool, John!

Marcus (Cville)

How come teams like Coastal Carolina and Texas Southern make the bracket, but teams like Penn State who almost upset numerous ranked oppenents are left out? Penn state is way more deserving for a 14 or 16 seed than Texas Southern and teams like that

Joe Lunardi

  (3:24 PM)

Marcus, there are 31 automatic conference champions and now 37 at-large bids to the field. The conference championship have been there from the start (rightly, I think).

Phil (Boston)

URI is a team which is always up and down. The team that played Pitt tight and beat BC certainly has potential. The other team... well no description required. The talent is there, what needs to change for them to get in the NCAA's finally?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:27 PM)

I saw URI this week and they were just OK. Delroy James is a force at the A-10 level, but the team-wide commitment to defense is sporadic. Maybe they got hot and make a late run, as opposed to the last few years of the opposite occurrence.

Chris M. (Washington, DC)

Joe,BC's losses to Harvard and Yale sound bad (scratch - really bad), but the computers seem to say otherwise. When you do a blind test with BC's profile, you see that they have no losses to teams rated 150+ in the RPI ratings. While I realize both of these teams might be lower in the ratings by the end of the season, if things hold steady, will the selection committee see losses to HARVARD! and YALE!!, or losses to the 50th and 147th teams in the RPI ratings? To sum up the question, does predetermined association with certain team names work both ways? Will those losses be considered worse than they are because of the names on the jerseys?Thanks

Joe Lunardi

  (3:29 PM)

My short answer, Chris, is that BC to me is still underrated. I have seen them several times and, while somewhat limited athletically, they do not beat themselves. You can see the Cornell influence.

Brandon (Arlington, VA)

Does a 12-4 conference record get VT into the dance this year?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:29 PM)

Absolutely, Brandon, Please tell Seth for me!

Robb (Colorado)

I'm an ND fan and right now I think you have them too high. They haven't won on the road and have looked bad against Marquette and St. Johns away from Purcell. Isn't a 5 seed more realistic right now?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:30 PM)

The Irish were a No. 4 on Tuesday, but most likely would be a No. 5 if we bracketed today. So we agree, Robb (that never happens to me!).

chris (franklin, oh) [via mobile]

Do you think UNC will make the Big Dance?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:31 PM)

Yes, but it's far from automatic.

Rico(East St Louis,Il) [via mobile]

Joe, What do you think the chances are for the Missouri State Bears to get in the Big Dance?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:32 PM)

I like the Bears, Rico, and hope the Committee recognizes that a road loss to an Indiana State isn't the worst thing in the world. Then again, Missouri State hasn't had much luck with the Committee in recent years.

John buffalo new york [via mobile]

What do u think about butler? They win in Hawaii but lose to wis. Milwaukee by 20.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:34 PM)

I think Butler is about at the limit for "bad" losses, John. The Hawaii wins will only carry them so far.

Josh (Kansas)

Tell us which game you "Can't wait!" to see this weekend?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:34 PM)

Steelers-Jets.

Shane (Chillicothe , OH)

Joe, Buckeyes are unbeaten and number 1, but it feels like there schedule has been soft. Should I be worried about my team going into the tourney and if that will hurt there seeding?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:35 PM)

Not soft to me, Shane. Be optimistic!

Dan (Salt Lake City)

Is there any possible way that BYU could end up as a 1 seed? What if they won out the rest of the way (including a sweep of SDSU?)

Joe Lunardi

  (3:35 PM)

So we're most likely talking about three wins (not just two) over San Diego State. Hard to see that happening, Dan.

Johnny B Good (Malibu, CA)

Joe, I asked Jay Bilas who would win 1-on-1 b/t Jimmer and Kemba. Jay said if there were no refs, Jimmer would take it. Is it really necessary to even qualify it? Jimmer would take it even with refs right?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:37 PM)

All I know is that both guys would beat Jay and that all three would clobber me. Then again, I'm 5'6" on a good day!

Mat (Richmond, VA)

Joey B, will ODU have any shot of an at-large bid after they fall at home to VCU tomorrow? And how many teams will the CAA send to the Big(ger) Dance?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:39 PM)

I see a lot of CAA games and it is hard to sort out. ODU is tougher on non-conference opponents because of its style; VCU is dangerous, but not always committed defensively; JMU and GMU have their moments for different reasons; and Drexel can beat good teams anywhere except the state of Virginia. What the league needs is for an ODU to separate in the regular season and then another team win the conference tournament.

Jacob (Louisville)

if louisville finishes 4th in the big east what would you say their seeding would be? 2-3 seed possibly? thanks!

Joe Lunardi

  (3:40 PM)

More likely No. 2 than No. 3 , Jacob.

matthew (columbia, mo)

Obviously the Big East is the best conference in the country but do you give the edge to the Big 10 or Big 12 second. I think KU is better than OSU, and MIchigan State has struggled, MIZZOU beat the ILLINI. Your thought?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:41 PM)

I'm not ranking either the Big Ten or Big 12 until they switch names.

Bob (Cleveland)

If Ohio State is the #1 overall seed, how come you have them going to New Orleans and not Newark, the much closer destination?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:42 PM)

It's something I've been looking at, Bob. Mainly I wanted to keep either the Syracuse or Duke fans off my back (Pitt fans are more gentle!). The Committee would probably do it your way if OSU was the overwhelming No. 1 overall seed.

Max A (Lawrence, KS)

Who are you taking in the Texas at Kansas game on Saturday and why?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:43 PM)

I like KU in the 6-8 point range.

carmelo Denver [via mobile]

Will Syracuse loss to Pittsburgh be disregarded since Kris Joseph didn't play?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:43 PM)

Can't be fully disregarded until he comes back. Or at least that's the way it's supposed to work.

Jordan (Casper, Wy)

Is the MVC gonna get some respect this year? How are my Sycamores chances of snatching a berth?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:44 PM)

They'd be in a bracket today, Jordan, thanks to head-to-head tiebreaker over Missouri State. Pretty good team frm what I've seen.

jody (arlington,tx)

duquene is tied for a-10 lead with xavier does duquene get in to the dance for first time since 77

Joe Lunardi

  (3:45 PM)

That would really be something, Jody, especially after what the program went through a few years ago. I'm rooting for them.

Chuckie (Rochester NY)

What do you think about St. Bonaventure?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:46 PM)

I think it's pretty cold and dreary, Chuckie, but I love the Tasty Twirl across the street. More flavors of milk shakes than I have ever seen!

Rick Byrd (Nashville)

Say my Belmont Bruins go undefeated or lose no more than 1 game in the A-Sun, but fall in the Championship Game of the A-Sun tourney... Can any case be made for an at-large bid sitting at 29-5 or 30-4?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:47 PM)

Belmont is definitely good enough, coach. You'd have to root against conference tournament upsets. "Bid thieves" are not your friend!

Greg (Fairfield, CT)

Who do you think will win the MAAC this year? And what is Fairfield's chances to get a 12 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:49 PM)

I still think Fairfield is the best team in the MAAC, Greg, although their slow start to the season was puzzling. It's also more of a puzzle to figure out the 11-12 seeds this year because of the two at-large play-ins. A No. 13 seed is more likely, I think.

Todd (Tn) [via mobile]

Will the committee take in to any account Bruce Pearl sitting out 8 SEC games toward the vols resume much the same they might take into account a team with their best player getting injured during the season?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:49 PM)

There is a written provision for player absences, not coaches. So I doubt it, Todd.

jim (wv)

Joe, does the committe ever factor in emotional losses and win. Case in point the forced game of Marshall and WVu every year that WVu often loses because its Marshall's entire season basically. How much will that hurt a tourney bid on the bubbe?.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:50 PM)

Every committee member can vote his or her conscience. In my experience, it becomes a fairly emotion-free process. This is a bad loss for WVU regardless.

Lumpybear Dallas, TX [via mobile]

What does Washington State have to do to make the dance?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:51 PM)

A tidy 12-6 Pac-10 record is a good place to start.

Dave (Southington , CT) [via mobile]

Does UConn need a Big East tournament win or regular season title to get a No 1 seed??

Joe Lunardi

  (3:52 PM)

Almost certainly, Dave. And how is Southington today? Will be my home-away-from-home before long!

Mark (Seattle, wa) [via mobile]

Since the pac-10 rarely gets any respect. Do you see the huskies any higher than a 4 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:53 PM)

I think the Huskies are at least that good, Mark. The Committee may have other ideas based on the overall weakness of the Pac-10.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:53 PM)

Running out of time, gang. Time for three more quickies.

chris (charleston)

College of Charleston has been sporadic to say the least, can they get in at large?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:53 PM)

Highly doubtful, Chris. Not enough out-of-conference.

Andrew (New York)

Pitt looking like a no.1 seed team. Right?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:54 PM)

Positively, Andrew.

Bubble Burst (Indy)

Who are the teams that will be screaming the most on selection Sunday?

Joe Lunardi

  (3:56 PM)

Cincinnati comes to mind. Maryland is always a possibility. Same for Penn State. And we haven't even mentioned America's bubble team: Virginia Tech.

Joe Lunardi

  (3:56 PM)

That's it for me, everyone. Have a great weekend!!