Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Does your life feel empty 4-5 PM EST on Fridays? Mine too! Hoping Broncos land Michael Bush or Deangelo, who's the better fit and who's more likely?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Those Friday chats were fun! May have to get back to doing them again. Would probably take Bush over Williams, not sure who would be more likely (CBA issues are throwing every potential player move in limbo).
Adam R (Albany)
Mr. Joyner, in a recent TIS commercial, John Brenkus of Sports Science is prepared to measure the impact of a Dwght Freeney hit vs. that of a rodeo bull. What do you believe would hurt worse?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Freeney. The bull is just trying to get the rider off of his back. Freeney wants to hit someone as hard as possible.
Shouldn't the NFL just outlaw Twitter use, KC. Now we've got Hasselbeck v Cromartie to deal with. Geez!
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
After the ratings the NFL drew with the Jets-Patriots back and forth, it is likely they'll want any team arguments they can get. It's good to know these players are fired up for a game for more than the money.
Hi KC, would swapping Brandon Marshall for Vincent Jackson make sense for both teams since the Dolphins need a long ball threat?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Good idea. The Chargers have plenty of vertical threats but could use someone to dominate the short routes in the way Marshall does. Not sure this move will happen but it would make sense from a talent fitting the team needs perspective.
Jimmy N (Arlington, VA)
K Sidge! Bye weeks? We dont need no stinking bye weeks! Thanks for chatting today, scientist. If my beloved Redskins go QB at #10 overall, how do you rank the possible candidates?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Great to have you here, Jimmy! And you're right - no bye weeks for this chat! Regarding the college QBs, I hesitate to rank them because I haven't seen much tape on Blaine Gabbert. I'll be going over QB tapes very soon and will gladly offer two cents on it then.
Your 2 cents on Jay Cutler? I think that although he was legitimately injured, the moral of the story is that if you're a jerk, don't expect the benefit of the doubt.
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
You hit it on the head. He probably wouldn't have taken as much grief as he did had he gone over to the backups and shown some enthusiasm. Being a cheerleader isn't in his nature and people saw his sitting on the bench as his not caring.
Cody (North Dakota)
Hey KC, do you feel that Orton is being treated unfairly considering the way he played last season in Denver? I may be off here but I think that Tebow would be more successful if we sat at least one more year behind Kyle Orton.
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
For a while there, Orton looked like a really good QB. That type of thing doesn't just happen by accident, so it is hard to give up on him just yet. Having said that, John Fox likes QBs who are fiery (it was Delhomme's biggest strength) and Tebow would seem to fit that bill better than Orton.
KCJ- I tried to get a KCJ "TFS"plug into Keith Law's chat today, but I couldnt. It seems the Ravens D is starting to get up there in age. Can we expect any help from young LB Sergio Kindle?
KC Joyner (4:11 PM)
Don't hold it against Keith - it's hard to get all of the questions answered in these chats. He's a great writer and we are lucky to have him. Hard to say about Kindle, as the last word is his skull injury might still be impacting him. Have to wait until that is cleared up before seeing if he'll help.
Thoughts on Eli Manning's 2010? Has there ever been a QB with as many tipped INT's as him? Expectations for 2011, if there is one?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
Not that comes to mind over the eight seasons I've been doing this. He still made plenty of bad decisions but all in all a repeat of the incredibly high interception total in 2011 seems unlikely. NY won 10 despite them, so imagine what their upside could be if luck is on their side in 2011.
Orton, Mcnabb, Palmer or draft for titans qb? Or other?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
Would probably go with a draft pick. McNabb and Palmer are too old and Orton might not be the best long-term pick (the college QBs could offer more long-term upside, in other words).
KCJ- I respect Cromartie for voicing that in some cases, the Union is not in everyone's best interest. Thoughts on his tiff with overrated Ray Lewis?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Not much to say about his issues with Ray Lewis, but will say that Cromartie is right about the union. Having said that, it should be noted it is hard for the union to serve everyone's interests equally well - just is the nature of that kind of business to have to pick and choose which battles to fight and who to fight them for.
Ryan (Damascus, MD)
Hey KC, what do you think the biggest need the Giants have to address this offseason?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
Not tipping passes would be high on the list! Player-wise, getting some youth on the O line would help. Might want to get more consistent safety play as well.
Why do all the experts like to say Mark Sanchez is bringing down the Jets. I thought he was the second best player on the field in Pittsburgh after Mendenhall. I think at his age and improvement over last season, Sanchez projects to be a solid QB by the time he's 26 or 27. I think people forget how inexperienced he was coming to the NFL.
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
The experts see all of the talent on the Jets offense and then wonder why the team can go a long time without scoring many points. Sanchez does need to develop more, but you are completely right about his relative inexperience. It took Namath a few years to develop and Sanchez is in that same boat. NY should absolutely stick by him, as it will pay off in the long-term.
KC, I read your book and your section on the value of left tackles didn't make much sense. You establish that the percentage-of-team's-sacks-allowed-by-LT stat doesn't really evaluate left tackle performance but then go on to use that stat to evaluate the correlation between LT performance and team wins. What gives?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
The idea of that section was to show that defenses will attack any offensive line weakness. If that weakness happens to be at the left tackle spot, they'll target it, but if a team has a strong LT and a weak RG, the defense will simply target the RG. In other words, it takes a strong O line as a whole to succeed, not just a strong LT.
Ajit (Saratoga, CA)
Hey KC, what would be your positions of need for the colts?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
Anything that will upgrade their running game. They don't need to lean heavily on their run game but they cannot get by with a ground attack that was as bad as last year's.
Shane (Los Angeles, CA)
KCJ, do you think anything needs to be done about the log jame for the HoF? Should they have a system where if you are in the final 15 for X number of years, you go to a pool that is voted on in addition to the other inductees?
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
A logjam for the HOF may not be a bad thing. The MLB HOF took care of many of their logjam problems by voting in a ton of weak candidates. Don't want to see the Pro Football HOF make that same mistake, even if that means keeping some great players waiting a bit longer for their induction.
Jason(NYC) [via mobile]
TRUE OR FALSE: THE NFLPA AND THE NFL WILL EVENTUALLY REACH A CBA AGREEMENT BEFORE APRIL?
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Gut instinct says there will be a lockout and it will last through the summer. I hope that isn't the case but there aren't a lot of positives coming out of the negotiations that make an agreement seem likely.On a related note, the big issue here is that the owners want the players to take a pay cut and work more regular season games. Wanting one or the other would be one thing, but wanting both is, in my opinion, way too much.
ZEKE (San Jose)
On the list of 'tough to find a guy' positions, where is the NT spot now, and how much tougher is it getting as more teams go 3-4?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
The thing about NTs is that the 4-3 front usually has a NT and an under tackle. Those NTs take on nearly as many double teams as the 3-4 NTs, so it is just a matter of converting them to a 3-4 front.
Dilemma here, KC. As a Vikes fan I find it tough to root for the Packers and my brother, although I love him, is a Steelers fan who takes great pleasure in rubbing the Super Bowl rings in my face. What do I do come Super Bowl Sunday?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
Tough call. What say you on this one, chatters?
Jason(NYC) [via mobile]
Do you think this is the year that the Bills Andre Reed gets into the HOF? He was the best YAC I have ever seen with the exception of Jerry Rice?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
He's got a strong case but there are far too many sure-fire HOFers this year to keep the Canton door open for Reed. He'll get in there eventually, just may take a few more years.
In regards to the colts run game, wouldnt you agree that when they had addai in the lineup they were much more successful? With him healthy and some help on the OL, don't you think that would help more than drafting another RB?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
Very true. Caveat to that is Addai has had some durability issues. Colts may want to invest in another RB if they don't think he can stay healthy for a full season.
Anthony Powell (Boynton Beach, FL)
KC how hard should the Patriots go after LaMarr Woodley should he get to free agency and how big of a loss is Maurice Pouncey to that Steelers offensive line which isn't that good or should I say terrible?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Woodley is a superb OLB and would fit perfectly in the Patriots system. Pouncey is a dominant run blocker but Pittsburgh can still move the ball on the ground even with him out of the lineup.
Cris Carter has to get in before Reed does. Just sayin'.
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Would probably have to agree with that.
To JB: you are in PA dude! Here we go Steelers, Here we go!
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
One vote for JB to pull for the Black and Gold.
Root for a tie
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
Really? Even if the Super Bowl could end in a tie, what fun would that be?
JB- you root for Fergie to have a wardrobe malfunction
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Would bet dimes to dollars the league will be doing everything in its power to ensure that doesn't happen.
But Joe, he gets REALLY obnoxious about it.
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
He probably brings up Super Bowl IX all the time, doesn't he?
Barney Stinson (NYC)
Haaaaaaaave you decided on your super bowl pick KC? What is your favorite prop bet?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Not quite yet. Have an idea who will win but am holding out expressing that until next week's chat. Haven't seen this year's crop of prop bets.
J.B., you live in PA, Packers are your worst enemy...join forces with your brother and root/wave the terrible towel for the Steelers...I am!
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Another vote for JB to pull for the Steelers!
It could end in a tie if every player rushes the field and takes a swing at the ref.
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Just the kind of Super Bowl ending the league is looking for!
Have to say thanks to the panel. You folks are the best. I was leaning towards the Pack but I may have to pull for the Black and Gold. I am a Pens fan so I do have the team colors at home.
KC Joyner (4:34 PM)
JB decides to stick with the home team. Have to say that is a sensible move, although pulling for the Pens is anathema in the Joyner household (Mrs. Scientist still calls him Cindy Crosby).
Shick (Silver Sprung MD)
KCJ- you gotta go for the Pack baby!!! Ill be watching in my Mark "Chewy" Chumura jersey. All the years of me being a drunk, loudmouth Pack fan will be worth it when we win it all next week KCJ! Down with the Steelers! Down with Gorman! Down with the "Saaaaaage guy!"
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
A vote for JB to pull for Green Bay.
Go Packers...I find Steelers fans in general to be the most obnoxious...
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
And a second.
As a Zona fan I always root against the steelers. And what fun is it to side with your bro anyway? Root for the Pack and you could rub it back in his face!
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
And a third. Maybe he'll reconsider?
Someone get me a Terrible Towel!
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
I actually bought my sons Terrible Towels the last time I visited Pittsburgh. Always wanted one growing up (big Steelers fan as a kid) and figured why not give them what I didn't have.
I notice the media has already latched onto the McCarthy is from Pittsburgh story. I hope it doesn't get as bad as the Bettis is from Detroit story.
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
It probably will. Writing about the Super Bowl is tougher than it looks. There are hundreds of writers and fresh storyline ideas run out in a hurry.
Yes but 'Cindy' has a lovely ring to commemorate the Stanley Cup win, KC.
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
That he does, partially courtesy of the NHL officials. Mrs. Scientist was so upset at the legendarily poor officiating in that Stanley Cup Finals that she hasn't watched a single NHL game since then.
Zach (Bronx, NY)
KC, these chats are phenomenal, I love that your readers seem to have gotten smarter by reading you because their comments are informed. Question for you: Texans are talking about moving Glover Quin to safety. I think he's too good at CB - why would they make that move?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
Zach, the readers are just plain smart - any contribution I make to their intelligence level is negligible. Regarding Quin, the reason to consider that move is how poorly the Texans safety play was last year. They need someone who can give them a solid last line of defense in the secondary and it would be worth it to them to lose a good CB to do so.
Pittsburgh will win because Ditka is from there!
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
A Chicago fan finding an additional reason to pull against the Packers!
Great work all season KC, really enjoyed the chats. In your opinion, which AFC & NFC team is set up best to dominate the next 4-5 years? I would say GBay and New England, but curious who you have...
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
Brady will be 34 years old this season, so it is hard to see NE dominating for that length of time. Could see GB doing so and also could see Pittsburgh making a couple of more Super Bowl runs, at least as long as LeBeau sticks around.
Mike (San Diego)
I think of you as the NFL version of Keith Law on these chats. That's a compliment, btw.
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Thanks! As mentioned earlier, Keith is a terrific writer and being compared to him is definitely a compliment.
KC, can you explain how Cutler's bad decision rate is 4.1% if he had 39 bad decisions in 432 attempts?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
I got your email regarding this and have to say I'm a bit confused about where the 39 number comes up. I need to take a look back at that article to try to get some clarity.
Bigger NFC overachiever - Bears or Falcons? Who has more wins next year (or who wins their division again next year, if either)?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
Bears. They had a ton of lucky bounces go their way (see the TFS article from a few weeks back). If that doesn't happen in 2011, Chicago could be an 8-8 club.
I'm rooting that all the Bears fans that ripped Cutler for being injured have the same thing happen to them. I hope everyone of them blows out their knee. I'm disgusted by Bears fans right now.
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
The anger is quite understandable, but Bears fans would have given up on Cutler even if he hadn't injured his knee. They threw Rex Grossman under the proverbial bus when he took them to a Super Bowl and when Cutler came up short of reaching that level, they were going to turn on him regardless of his injury status.
You said this in your article "He had 39 passes end up either as interceptions or near interceptions in 2010; 16 of those were picked off (41 percent). "
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Not every interception/near interception is a result of a bad decision.
Josh (Knoxville, TN)
KC, I have to disagree. Keeping out weak candidates is one thing, but guys shouldn't be getting inducted over 30 years after they stopped playing. That's just nuts. Take Bob Hayes; he retired in 1975 and wasn't elected until 2009. Unfortunately he died in 2002. I'd rather walk through a HOF and say, "who's that guy?" than wonder why I can't find busts for tons of great players.
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
I'd concur on that. Maybe the answer is to reduce the number of years a player has to be retired before getting to the veterans committee and giving that committee three players each year instead of two.
Who do you see as the key players for the Pack and for the Steelers in the big game?
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
Will be going over that type of thing in this week's articles, but in a nutshell the game will likely come down to which holds up better - the Steelers secondary or the Packers O line?
Zach (Bronx, NY)
Technical question: can a QB make a throw that you would count as a bad decision if the result of the throw is a huge gain or even a TD?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Absolutely. A bad decision is debited to a QB when he makes a mistake that leads to a turnover or a near turnover. If that near turnover becomes a TD due to luck (dropped interception caught by another receiver), it doesn't change the fact that it was a bad decision.
J.B. im a seahawks fan and we got cheated last time GO PACK!
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Seattle's hard feelings for Ted Thompson are more than negated by their hard feelings for the poor officiating.
OK thanks for the clarification. So the remaining 22 INTs/near INTs were a result of either a bad throw, teammates mistake, or great defensive play. Are there any other possible causes?
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
Tipped passes are another significant factor.
What's on the menu tonight? Have a good weekend.
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Mrs. Scientist says she's been in housecleaning mode today, so the dinner plans are still up in the air. There are some leftovers of some terrific meals from the past day or so, may end up going with those.
You bang on Cutler for his bad decision rate (rightfully so) and Tim Hasselbeck and Trent Dilfer bang on him for poor fundamentals and footwork (rightfully so)... how closely do you believe those things are related?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
Very much so. Bad mechanics often lead to bad decisions.
How well does Rob Ryan fit Cowboys defensive personnel?
KC Joyner (4:57 PM)
He's operated a number of different schemes over the years, so adapting to Dallas' talent should not be an issue. He'll certainly get the D to play hard all of the time, as that was his badge of achievement in Oakland.
Thanks again to everyone for humoring me today. It's much appreciated. Have a good dinner, KC & all. See you next week.
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
J.B., just glad the chatters helped you make a final decision on who to pull for!
Darius(OHIO) [via mobile]
Which corner is best fit for the eagles. What kind move you envision them making in off season?
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
Asomugha would be the best, but they may not pay that kind of price. Philly has a good history of improving FA CB performance (Hanson was terrible in SF but has been great for the Eagles), so they might go the low-cost route instead.
Al Davis (Oakland)
KC Joyner is the Bill James of football, not the Keith Law of football.
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
No one is the Bill James of football - he was a one of a kind and anyone who says otherwise is off base (pun intended)! Well, it's been fun but it's time to run. Feel free to follow all of the TFS material on Twitter @kcjoynertfs. Hope to see you all next week!