KC Joyner

  (4:01 PM)

Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!

madi (oxford)

Do you think the chiefs can become a contender this year ?

KC Joyner

  (4:03 PM)

Winning the division in 2010 says they are already something of a contender. Unless and until they can get more verticality out of their passing game, however, they are going to be one of those one and done playoff clubs.

Todd(Pa) [via mobile]

Great blog with u n Cowboys nation on twitter saw ur take on Huff n Weddle n hope they sign one of them but if they do not draft a safety what other safeties could they sign that u saw good metrics with last season. Quinton Mikell, Landry? Thoughts?

KC Joyner

  (4:03 PM)

The good thing about the FS position is that it can often be effectively manned by a converted CB. Dallas should have a lot of options available to fix their deep coverage woes but Weddle would easily be the best of the bunch.

Tom (MN) [via mobile]

Would Cameron Jordan be a good fit for the Vikings 4-3 defense it seems that he has the ability to play DE in a 3-4 as well as being able to kick into DT on passing downs.

KC Joyner

  (4:04 PM)

Having that kind of versatility is a big plus, but the Vikings may want to focus more on getting a full-time DT. The Williams pair are long in the tooth and will need replacing very soon.

Craig (Braintree MA)

Which is better in the draft - more picks or fewer higher picks?

KC Joyner

  (4:05 PM)

It really depends on the team needs. Generally speaking, getting more picks is better but certain high picks can solve needs in ways that a bunch of lower picks cannot.

max (anywhere)

who is gonna win the superbowl?

KC Joyner

  (4:05 PM)

Is there going to be one?

Forrest (Indianapolis)

What are your thoughts on the phrase, "defense wins championships?" In my opinion, and based on all the reesarch I've done, it's not necessarily true (for ANY sport). Sure, teams with great defenses CAN win championships, but those teams usually have at least a very good offense (if not a great offense) to go along with their great defense. An example of the opposite would be the Bears/Colts Super Bowl a few years ago. The Bears' defense got them that far, but their great defense was beaten by a great offense. The Bears were great defensively but sub-par offensively, and the Colts were great offensively but sub-par defensively...and the team with the better offense won the game. With all that said, I am not saying that OFFENSE wins championships....I'm just saying that in my opinion, people should stop using the phrase "defense wins championships" because it doesn't hold up. Do you have any scientific data that can prove me right or wrong?

KC Joyner

  (4:06 PM)

The quick answer to a long question like this is that studies have always shown that a team can win with either offense or defense. The idea is to outscore the other team and that can be accomplished on either side of the ball.

Tom (MN) [via mobile]

Is it worth trading a first round pick for Kevin Kolb? 11 TD to 14 INT I don't believe warrants that maybe a third rounder at best.

KC Joyner

  (4:07 PM)

After running Kolb's metrics for the 2010 season, I'm beginning to be of the mindset that he isn't worth a first rounder. He's got talent and some experience but he's making bad decisions at a very high rate. If that happens in an Andy Reid offense, it is easy to imagine a total like that increasing in a more high-risk offense.

Steve Mort (Rural Hall, NC)

There is some buzz about Chris Ponder including a recent artical that claims he's better than Locker. Whats your opinion?

KC Joyner

  (4:08 PM)

Well, I wrote an article with that headline recently, so count me in the group who thinks Ponder is better. Locker's physical skills are tremendous but he is incredibly inconsistent.

lino g SA Tx [via mobile]

Do u think the tampbay bucs can make a deep playoff run

KC Joyner

  (4:10 PM)

They are very close. Freeman is close to being an elite QB, but they need help at WR and in the secondary (Talib had good overall totals but his vertical YPA was abysmal).

Drake (Tampa)

Is KC here? Has it started??? KC, enjoy your work... Who is your top projection at RB from this class that maybe isn't obvious, like a Bilal Powell or Roy Helu, Jr., perhaps? What's your take on Taiwan Jones?

KC Joyner

  (4:11 PM)

It has definitely started! Haven't had a chance to see tape on Jones or Powell but was quite impressed with Helu. He's got some kind of an NFL future ahead of him, just not sure if he will be a change of pace or a bellcow (more likely the former).

Shane (Los Angeles, CA)

KCJ, since DeMaurice Smith constantly references the fans when making hs comments, do you have his contact information? I'd like to ensure his office gets a list of my demands (a CBA, lower ticket prices, free parket, cheaper concessions) so he can accurately represent me.

KC Joyner

  (4:13 PM)

I can't say that I've ever contacted Smith, but the NFLPA (or more accurately, the trade association) information should be available on line. Also, it is worth noting he has only so much control over items and can't do much, if anything, to change parking, ticket or concession prices.

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

Your guess at the 1st 3 picks of the draft...

KC Joyner

  (4:13 PM)

Would guess Newton, Fairly and Dareus at the moment.

Steve Mort (Rural Hall, NC)

Who do you think the Panthers should take with the #1 pick?

KC Joyner

  (4:15 PM)

Patrick Peterson is the top player in the draft and Carolina does need some secondary help (Gamble is not the type of CB one wants to lean on in the NFC South). Having said that, Peterson did get dominated by Texas A&M WR Jeff Fuller in the Cotton Bowl, so he may not be Darrelle Revis.

Shane (Los Angeles, CA)

KCJ, I think you missed my joke...:) My point was that Smith really isn't representing the fans & shouldnt posture his comments as if he is. In the big picture, once the CBA is signed, I doubt any fan will be calling talk shows or posting on blogs about the terms of the agreement. WE JUST WANT SOME FOOTBALL!

KC Joyner

  (4:16 PM)

That sarcasm just went past me :)

MRLeavey (Owings Mills)

KC - I love Josh Freeman's physical gifts, but I am not sold on him as a passer from the pocket, which is ultimately where NFL quarterbacks make their money. Tremendous athlete, great at shaking off contact and extending plays, but when it comes to dissecting a defense and throwing with touch, I'm not sold. Got any metrics on Freeman from the pocket?

KC Joyner

  (4:18 PM)

The metric on Freeman that stands out is his 2.2 percent bad decision rate. That was 15th best in the league and is a very good sign that he is learning how to read defenses.

Corey (D.C.)

I have Sidney Rice in my FF Dynasty league as my 3rd WR. What can I expect from him over the next few years? Does he have a chance to be elite?

KC Joyner

  (4:19 PM)

As long as he is healthy, Rice is the type of player who can win your team games. He might not be in Minnesota long term, but he's worth holding on to regardless of where he ends up (heck, leaving the Vikings offense might actually be a plus).

PT (Franklin, NC)

Do you think Darius Heyward Bey will ever progress into a valid starting WR?

KC Joyner

  (4:20 PM)

He will if he gets into a situation where all he has to worry about is running vertical routes. That's what he did in college and he's proven to be fairly good at the in the NFL as well.

Max (Lake Charles, La)

KC, what is your take on the value of Reggie Bush, in general and to the Saints specifically? Obviously he is going to have to rework his contract to be back in NOLA, but do you think even at his reduced rate he is still to expensive for his output?

KC Joyner

  (4:21 PM)

He's got a skill set that works very well for a Sean Payton directed offense. They ought to give him an incentive laden contract and he should sign it, as he likely won't perform as well elsewhere as he would in NO.

Corey (D.C.)

Lets get this out of the way now KC. The Panthers have no 2nd round pick this year, and therefore wont be able to draft a decent QB later in the draft. There is a 100% chance they take Newton. I say this as a fan who does not even like Newton.

KC Joyner

  (4:22 PM)

That's a very good point, but just ask this - how are the Broncos enjoying having Tim Tebow on their roster? Newton is a slightly improved version of Tebow and Denver has found Tebow to be a not ready for prime time QB. Taking Newton as a need pick is not a good move given the odds that he doesn't pan out.

Craig (Braintree MA)

If Judge Nelson rules for the players, how soon until free agency gets underway?

KC Joyner

  (4:23 PM)

It likely won't. If she rules for the players, she will likely also institute a stay on the injunction that will hold until the appellate court reviews the case. Would be somewhere in late June before that would be resolved.

Steven (Kingsport)

Hello from the Smokies, caught all the top QB's on my DVR, broke them down and I really hope my Titans get either Mallet or Ponder. Gabbert and Locker are way too inaccurate for me to believe they develop into NFL QB's (though you can dream on the tools), Newton, Dalton and Kaepernick are too far away from being NFL QB ready (though I think long term Kaepernick might be the best QB in this class and I like all three), McElroy has Chad Pennington as his upside (which honestly could be worse, but I think he taps out as a good backup due to arm strength), and Stanzi will never be anything more than a solid backup (bad decisions and less than admirable arm for Stanzi).

KC Joyner

  (4:24 PM)

Hello Kingsport! Say a quick hi to Johnson City for me, will ya? Am totally with you on Mallett and Ponder, at least as long as Mallett's off-field issues aren't as bad as some are making them out to be.

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

Is AJ Green similar to Sid Rice and maybe even Fitz?

KC Joyner

  (4:25 PM)

Just did an article comparing Green and Julio Jones, not sure if it has been posted yet. In a nutshell, Green is more of a vertical threat and Jones is more of an all around WR. In other words, he's more like Rice than Fitz.

Adam (Winnipeg)

I keep seeing that the Lions would draft a DE in the first round. When would this player play? They seem quite strong on the line already..

KC Joyner

  (4:26 PM)

Couldn't agree more. The Lions need help at many other positions. Building up the D line more is akin to their trying to overbuild WR during the Millen era.

ak (chicago)

Hey KC- do you see Jason Campbell progressing at all this next year? Given that Hue Jackson was there last year, is this going to be 2 years in a row w/o JC having to learn a new system? That can only help, right?

KC Joyner

  (4:27 PM)

Campbell had some strong numbers last year that were highlighted by a 7.4 YPA. Being in the same system two years in a row should only help that number move upward.

Jockey underwear (Fruit-of-the-Loom-ville)

We enjoy having Tim Tebow on our roster!

KC Joyner

  (4:29 PM)

Let's just hope the Panthers aren't using this type of thing as a consideration in selecting Newton.

mike (new jersey)

asomugha to steelers? especially if taylor doesnt return

KC Joyner

  (4:30 PM)

He'd obviously be a good add but his price tag could be high enough that Pittsburgh won't pay it. They are also a team that relies on pass rush pressure to stop the other team's aerials, so having elite CB play is something they might be able to live without.

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

Are you pleasantly surprised by John Elway's work ethic? The Broncos have been working out players all over the board, I think they will be exhausting any chance to trade up/down...

KC Joyner

  (4:32 PM)

Can't say that it is surprising, as Elway's history in every endeavor shows that he will work hard. He wants to do all he can to get this right but hard work alone isn't what wins the personnel decision battles. Not saying he will be unsuccessful but the real key is how the hard work pans out on draft day.

Zach (Bronx, NY)

Also, what do you think of Julio Jones. Some pundits have my boring old Texans getting him at 11.

KC Joyner

  (4:33 PM)

Add him to a mix of Andre Johnson, a healthy Owen Daniels and Kevin Walter and it might be the best WR/TE corps in the league. With the help they need in the secondary, they would do better to land someone like Amukamara, though.

Shane (Los Angeles, CA)

KCJ, Nnamdi is the clear cream of the crop in this year's FA. Which team(s) need him the most AND would be willing to pay him? Texans quite possibly has the worst secondary in FB last year.

KC Joyner

  (4:34 PM)

Houston should get the mayor to give Nnamdi the key to the city if he'll sign with them. Houston needs secondary upgrades badly.

BSB (Philly)

I don't have a question but i do have a comment. Thank you KC for doing these chats in the off season even as a lockout looms. It's always good to talk football. Now... back to work.

KC Joyner

  (4:35 PM)

Hey, I'm more than happy to keep doing them as long as everyone shows up to chat! Mrs. Scientist is wondering where a lot of the regulars have been of late.

Craig G. (Fairfield, California)

Hey KC, what is the top priority that NFL teams analyze when drafting college CBs and Safety's?

KC Joyner

  (4:36 PM)

It is usually top end speed, but a case could be made that what they really ought to be looking at is coverage ability. Speed doesn't necessarily translate into that.

matt (boston)

who would win in a fight between ed reed and troy polamalu?

KC Joyner

  (4:37 PM)

If the lockout continues, maybe they'll have to get into the octagon. Might be the only way to see these guys in an athletic competition.

Dave (Mpls)

The thought of Donovan McNabb behind the Vikings porous O line does not appeal to me. The thought of McNabb period does not appeal. What's your take on what he has left in the tank?

KC Joyner

  (4:38 PM)

He had better metrics than might generally be thought, but he is an aging QB who has fought injuries and multiple benchings by coaches over the past couple of years. He's not someone a team should be relying on to help them stabilize a young roster.

BSB (Philly)

Mrs. BSB enjoys my employment and would like me to keep the gig. besides, the quarter just ended, lot to do.

KC Joyner

  (4:39 PM)

Say hi to Mrs. BSB from Mrs. Scientist! Believe me, I completely understand the quandary, just miss talking to everyone, that's all :)

matt (boston)

who would win though?

KC Joyner

  (4:40 PM)

Tough call. Might have to punch their metrics into one of those console fighting games to figure it out.

Zach (Bronx, NY)

Tell me what you think of this contrarian theory. GM's are afraid of looking bad and picking a bust at #1. If I were a GM, I would try to trade for the #1 pick because it's undervalued. Every year, I would simply pick the best sure-fire prospect - last year Suh, this year Patterson - and I would actually get these guys at bargain prices. Too contrarian for your liking?

KC Joyner

  (4:42 PM)

It's a very good idea in theory because the bell curve of talent at the top of the draft tends to fall off in a very quick hurry. Having said that, it does depend on a team being willing to give up the #1 pick. Taking a bad

richard (west virginia)

KC I was just wondering is there any major difference between a RDE and a LDE other than the different sides is one easier to play or is it all based on the teams defensive scheme

KC Joyner

  (4:44 PM)

One often plays on the side of the tight end more frequently. With the way offensive teams move their personnel around, though, that might not be as impactful as it used to be. Biggest non formation difference would be the technique used by the DE (e.g. do they line up as a 5 or an 8-technique).

Zach (Bronx, NY)

Re: Amukamara, I was really impressed by his technique, but I keep seeing pundits who I trust talk about him more like a 2nd rounder -- meaning he's exactly what we got in Kareem Jackson!

KC Joyner

  (4:44 PM)

His YPA in Big 12 competition was very good. Would definitely rate him higher than Jackson (who was probably the worst CB in the NFL last year).

nick (pennsylvania)

Would you rather have troy polamalu on your team or andre johnson?

KC Joyner

  (4:46 PM)

Really tough call. Polamalu is the type of player who could work with any defense but most coordinators would not get as much out of him as the Steelers do. Most offensive coordinators are used to finding ways to get the most out of their wideouts, so Johnson is probably the better pick in that he could fit in with more teams.

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

@ KC & Zach: the #1 pick also carried a unproportionally huge financial burden. Might change with future CBA. Also, it's easy to identify the #1 player in hindsight...

KC Joyner

  (4:46 PM)

Very good point about the financials. Gives the #1 team less of a reason to depart with the pick.

Shane (Los Angeles, CA)

I think we all assume that a rookie wage scale will be part of the new CBA. Given this, wont a lot of teams be less reluctant to trade up, since the wage scale will reduce the risk? The Chargers & Patriots have a lot of firepower in the draft this year, and while it goes against the Pats MO, I wouldnt be surprised to see teams try to jump into the top 10 this year. This year's draft has about 6-7 elite prospects; the next group of 15-20 players are about the same talent level, it just depends on what position your team needs. So (for example), if I needed a CB, I would seriously consider moving up to grab PP7 or Prince. Thoughts?

KC Joyner

  (4:48 PM)

Excellent point, especially on the elite prospects part. Those are the players teams will want to trade up for. Some of the teams in a position to draft those players have enough gaps on their rosters that they would probably benefit from getting a larger number of picks. Would make for a fun draft day, as trades always spice things up.

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

KC, isn't it also true that LDE is usually speed rusher, more athletic, and RDE is bigger, stronger. Most OLs are built the same way, that's why LT is finesse guy and RT is more of a mauler???

KC Joyner

  (4:50 PM)

Yes, that is generally correct. Having said that, a lot of teams are building their O line around two good pass blocking tackles. This is in response to defenses moving rushers around to whichever side they perceive as being weaker.

nick (pennsylvania)

Would you pick polamalu over revis?

KC Joyner

  (4:50 PM)

As much as Polamalu brings to the table, Revis is that rarest of talents who can take the other team's top WR out of the game by himself. Revis gets this vote.

AL (San Jose)

Has anyone done serious work regarding how well teams select draft picks by position? I see a ton of examples, but rarely do I see that analyzed scientifically. Essentially, what positions are scouts most reliable in spotting talent, and which are the least?

KC Joyner

  (4:51 PM)

Football Outsiders have done a lot of interesting research with regards to the draft.

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

When do you do a write-up on the top safeties in the draft? I wouldn't pick that day to stop sniffing glue...

KC Joyner

  (4:52 PM)

An Airplane comment! We should get more movie comments going, especially now. Might be doing something on safeties, not quite sure yet what the next couple of draft articles will review.

Sean McKenzie (Van Wert, OH)

I believe that the Browns should trade down and take DE Cameron Heyward. He is the only player that I see, that can play both end and tackle along the D-line and have success. It fills a need for the Browns, and allows them to take someone like DT Taylor from Baylor. Use Heyward as a swing-man. Your thoughts, please.

KC Joyner

  (4:53 PM)

They need front seven help in a big time way and Heyward gives them a wide amount of latitude in how to use his skills. Would be a terrific pick for them.

Chris (Atl)

When was the last time an option QB like Newton was successful in the NFL?

KC Joyner

  (4:54 PM)

A valid question along those lines is when is the last time a QB with only one season of FBS football under his belt been successful in the NFL? That, as much as anything, is what should be making NFL teams think long and hard about whether to draft Newton.

Adam (Winnipeg)

I have heard people say the Lions have tapped into Lawrence Jackson; How did he perform according to you?

KC Joyner

  (4:56 PM)

Jackson can be a good pass rusher and run stuffer when he is on his game. The issue is getting him on his game more consistently. Gunther Cunningham is a very good motivator and very well could get Jackson to be more consistent.

Scott (Northglenn, CO)

Re: the elite talent in the first few picks, could you see a Broncos-Pats trade? The Pats could get an elite rusher like Von Miller or Fairley, and the Broncos are so talent deficient, if they got the Pats 2 1sts and a second, they could reload the defense with 5 picks in the first 2 rounds...

KC Joyner

  (4:59 PM)

Couldn't agree more with that trade. Denver is a team that need to stockpile talent on D and the Patriots could work wonders with a talent like Miller. Well, it's been a blast but Mrs. Scientist and I have to get our kids fed, so it's time to run. Don't forget that all of the TFS material (and various comments) are posted on Twitter @kcjoynertfs. Hope to see you all next week!