Klaw

  (1:06 PM)

My updated ranking of the top 50 pro prospects should be up in the next few minutes, so I may interrupt the chat with a link at some point.

Steve (Livermore, CA)

I know you didn't like the KRod deal for the Brewers, but let me play devil's advocate. He's still K'ing 10/9, they didn't have to give up a "top top" guy, and they can get 2 high picks for him in the draft. They can rebuild the system with 5 high picks (2 from Fielder, 2 from KRod, and their own) next year.

Klaw

  (1:09 PM)

Got a few comments like this in the Conversation, but I'm not buying it. K/9 is not a great measure, since the denominator is innings (outs) rather than batters faced. (Two pitchers can have equal K/9 rates even if one walks twice as many batters as the other, and thus isn't striking out the same percentage of hitters.) As for draft picks, the Brewers would have to offer him arbitration and then would risk an arbitration award of about $12.5-$14 million if he accepts, which he most likely would. I believe Boras represented Millwood when he accepted arbitration from Atlanta. True, they didn't give up a "top top" guy, but I've been told the players on the list are not zeroes, either.

Chris (Texas)

Does it frsutrate you when people get offended when you call a player an average regular? Not every player can be a superstar, and you'd think they could see the value in that when guys like Miguel Tejada still play regularly.

Klaw

  (1:10 PM)

There is a certain amount of unreality that comes with being a fan of your team's prospects, where at any given moment there are at least guys in your team's farm system who project as super-duperstars.

Kirk (The TC)

Who has the higher ceiling? Sano, Arcia, or Hicks? How would you rank the 3?

Klaw

  (1:12 PM)

That will be answered in the top 50 post today.

Klaw

  (1:13 PM)

Which, it turns out, is now online: http://klaw.me/mX8Gtn

Nate (AZ)

Rasmus, what the hell is gonna happen here? STL has really screwed this one up yeah?

Klaw

  (1:14 PM)

As I said on Twitter, it's tough to prove, but when you have a manager with a long history of not liking young players, and some known friction between him and this particular player, the circumstantial evidence points to "yes."

Brad (Chicago)

Thoughts on the Castro and Banks comparison lately? Seems like writers in Chicago really need a story.

Klaw

  (1:15 PM)

Oh. I thought they were comparing him to Banksy.

Aubrey (Houston)

If you're the Astros, do you trade Pence? If so, what's a fair price to expect back?

Klaw

  (1:19 PM)

I think you have to shop him, but the problem is that he's going to get really expensive next season - could be $22-23 million over the next two years, because he was a super-two guy in 2010. I like Pence quite a bit, but if he's hitting .280 as he did the last two years (with the same secondary skills) those salaries are high - and they're not fixed by a long-term contract.

Klaw

  (1:20 PM)

Pence makes $6.9 million this year. If he hits .320 all year with 20-25 HR, he'll probably jump to eight digits.

Nick (Seattle)

I was a little suprised not to see James Paxton on this list. Is that due to questions about his control? And would he be on this list if it were a Top 100?

Klaw

  (1:22 PM)

Had a terribly high walk rate at a level where he was far too old. Great arm, but at that age results do weigh more heavily than if he was 19.

JC (Winnipeg)

Pleasantly surprised to see Drew Hutchison crack the top-50. Has he surpassed Aaron Sanchez as a prospect? Also, was Anthony Gose close to the "cut"?

Klaw

  (1:25 PM)

Hutchison is a lot more advanced than Sanchez right now. Sanchez' stuff is there and I love the projection. Gose wasn't close. As with all of these lists I discuss them with sources before posting, and no one thought Gose belonged, but I did get some positive feedback on including Hutchison.

Jose (Arizona)

What can you tells about Angels prospect Garret Richards? How good is he?

Klaw

  (1:26 PM)

Looks like a mid-rotation starter now - plus fastball, will show a plus breaking ball, not missing the bats he should be with that stuff.

Chip (Richmond)

If you were to include unsigned 2011 draftees, how many would have made your top 50?

Klaw

  (1:27 PM)

Rough guess, probably 7-8.

Mike (Worcester, MA)

Keith. Ryan Lavarnway has been mashing in AAA after killing it in AA. His control of the running game has also improved, and his PB numbers are way down. Is he a legit possibility at C for the Sox next year. Or if not, could that bat play at DH or 1B for another team?

Klaw

  (1:27 PM)

Red Sox believe he's a catcher, but I don't believe anyone else does.

Norm (Chicago)

How far has Brett Jackson fallen in your eyes? Him or Drew Stubbs?

Klaw

  (1:28 PM)

Hasn't fallen, but bear in mind I didn't have him as a top 100 guy preseason. Solid-average regular, not a star. Surprised to see him moved up to AAA when he'd been so-so in AA for two solid months.

Gino T. (SF)

Belt out of the top-50 why?

Klaw

  (1:29 PM)

Because he's played enough in the big leagues that I considered him to have graduated.

Nate (Madison)

What's your opinion on Tyler Thornburg in the Brewers farm system?

Klaw

  (1:29 PM)

Still looks like a reliever, due to size, arm slot, flyball tendency (related to the arm slot).

Jamie (Canada)

I noticed that Gary Sanchez wasn't in your top 50 any reason?

Klaw

  (1:31 PM)

He wasn't there preseason either, and I've gotten horrible reports on his defense. Plus he was sent home for attitude problems earlier this year, which won't endear you to many scouts. Montero was a trickier one - consensus of sources was that I ranked him too high, but I couldn't move the potential of that bat any lower on the list.

Tom Tuttle (Tacoma)

Darrin Gorski has been lights-out at St. Lucie in the first half. How does he project?

Klaw

  (1:31 PM)

Solid 5, chance to be a 4.

John T (Eagan, MN)

How far down the non-50 list has Kyle Gibson fallen? Would you say it's more lack of a high ceiling but still a pretty solid bet to be a decent #2 or #3 starter?

Klaw

  (1:32 PM)

More like a #4 at this point.

T (Boston)

Thoughts on Ranaudo? Should we consider this year a disappointment (numbers) or a success (health)?

Klaw

  (1:32 PM)

Little of both? I wouldn't look at his performance as you look at Harvey's or Pomeranz' because Ranaudo didn't come into the system after a healthy junior year.

Ryan (Pittsburgh, PA)

It sounds like Stetson Allie has essentially become the personification of Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn. Huge arm, crazy wild, and probably destined for the bull pen. Has his stock fallen in your eyes with how wild he has been?

Klaw

  (1:33 PM)

That's why I didn't put him on the preseason top 50. Scouting report on him in high school was "he throws 100 ... to the backstop."

Kevin (San Diego)

If Trout were eligible, him or Harper for #1?

Klaw

  (1:33 PM)

Trout.

Terence (NYC)

Any sources mention Familia? Seems like a large deviation on his projection

Klaw

  (1:34 PM)

Reliever. I don't think I have any projected relievers in the top 50. I typically only have 3-4 on the entire top 100.

dan (boston)

saw brentz on ur honorable mention list - has he really figured it out?you ever been to the franklin cafe in boston? any thoughts?

Klaw

  (1:35 PM)

It's looking like he's figured it out, but he's also a little old for high-A and was way too old for low-A (although it was a good call for him, given how he struggled last year and the work they were doing to restore his old swing).

Dan (NY)

Do you consider Mason Williams to be a legit prospect? He has been doing well in A ball, but that very slight frame seems worrisome, even for a player his age.

Klaw

  (1:35 PM)

I do. Not a top 50 candidate yet, but I think he'll really fill out, and his feel is better than I expected from a two-sport guy.

Ed (Ontario)

No Gary Brown in the top 50?

Klaw

  (1:37 PM)

Let me turn this around: Why would he be?

@Jaypers413 (IL)

I believe you are higher on Mesoraco than pretty much anyone else who puts out a Top 50 midseason list. What do you see in him that the others don't?

Klaw

  (1:38 PM)

What is the value of a true catcher who can hit .270 or so with some walks and 25+ home runs? Given where replacement level is, isn't that an MVP candidate? Mesoraco can do all of those things - good swing, good eye, above-average arm, receiving much better this year now that the thumb is healed.

Garrett (Bakersfield, Ca)

Keith, I saw that you put Vizciano over Teheran now. Is this more of statement for Vizacaino or a knock on Teheran since breaking ball has not developed further like you though? In a related note, would you offer either of them for Rasmus or would you hold on to them if you were ATL?

Klaw

  (1:41 PM)

I'm not sure Teheran's curveball will ever be an average pitch, which isn't to say he can't switch to a slider, or even be successful with a 45 breaking ball. But Vizcaino's got the breaking ball now, and other than some questions about his willingness to work with coaches has more top-of-the-rotation upside. Of course I still had Teheran stuffed on the list, just behind some other arms I like better.

Ryan (Pittsburgh, PA)

Has Tony Sanchez fallen on your list?

Klaw

  (1:41 PM)

If you're going to ask if Player X has fallen on the list, please check first to see if he's actually fallen since the top 100. Tony Sanchez has never been in my top 50, so no.

Tim (STL)

Klaw,Is it weird that I'm as excited that Tyrell is in your top 50 as I am by the jumps from Shelby and Carlos?

Klaw

  (1:42 PM)

It's just my long-noted pro-Cardinals bias.

Fenster (Seattle)

Thoughts on concious self promoters like Brian Wilson? Bore me too death.

Klaw

  (1:43 PM)

Feel like baseball could use some more self-promoters, actually.

Jeff (WV)

Klaw, for the of us who are not scouts, it is hard to see what Trout has that Harper doesnt. It just seems that Trouts skills are undeveloped where it seems Harper already has shown elite power. Would you care to elaborate on what all of the scouts see in Trout? I would be very interested.

Klaw

  (1:43 PM)

I don't think you'd find anyone, even many non-scouts, who'd call Trout's skills "undeveloped." Plus run, plus bat, above-average glove, ridiculous eye, advanced feel.

Ryan's Defender (Not Pittsburgh)

In Ryan's defense, not everyone is terribly hot on the idea of paying more money to ESPN when it already inundates us with advertising. So maybe he thought out of the goodness of your heart, you'd give him a reply that wasn't so snarky.

Klaw

  (1:44 PM)

Today's article is Insider too. And since that's how I generate the revenues that ultimately feed into my salary, no, I'm not here to give out lots of free information. Buy the cow.

Brent (St. Paul)

Sup Klaw. I get to be a guest diner on the next Top Chef. I'm pretty excited about it.

Klaw

  (1:45 PM)

Insanely jealous. Out of pure spite, I'm hoping it's another cooking-with-insects challenge.

Jim C (Houston)

How many pitchers do YOU feel a major-league team needs at any given time? 12 seems to be too many, and it destroys your bench.

Klaw

  (1:45 PM)

10 for a team with a good rotation.

Tom (NJ)

Profar or Lee in 3 years?

Klaw

  (1:46 PM)

I'd lean towards Lee, but I like both players. They're pretty comparable with Lee a little further along.

Alex (NJ)

Nice to see Schoop at #38. Any idea about where Dylan Bundy would rank overall, if the 7-8 2011 draftees you mention all sign?

Klaw

  (1:47 PM)

Very high. I'm guessing the top 4-5 guys on my draft top 100 will end up top 20 guys in next winter's pro ranking.

Matt (DC)

Have you tried Rocco's Dinner Party? Unspeakably awful.

Klaw

  (1:47 PM)

Couldn't make it through five minutes.

Henry (ATL)

Opinion of F. Freeman changed at all with his recent improved play?

Klaw

  (1:47 PM)

Yes, because you know I change my opinions of players on a weekly basis, depending on what they did the night before I chat.

Chris (Dallas, TX)

How close is Castellanos to breaking into the top 50? Seems to be holding his own in A.

Klaw

  (1:48 PM)

Last report I got on him absolutely killed him, especially on defense. Scout sat on that club for a series and said he couldn't get the ball across the infield. I have no idea why that would be the case.

D'Andre (Atlanta, GA)

The NL rookie of the year will be?

Klaw

  (1:49 PM)

I'm guessing Kimbrel. Voters seem very impressed by closers in recent years. Of course ROY awards change the most between the ASB and end of season.

John (Ada, MI)

If Wheeler has 1/2 potential, what about Surkamp? 96 IP, 1.78 ERA, 114 SO, 30 BB... looks pretty damn good to me.

Klaw

  (1:50 PM)

Average-at-best fastball though.

Mike (San Diego)

Oh so you don't love the THIRTEEN pitchers that Tony LaRussa normally employs? It's no wonder the Cardinals haven't had a decent bench in years.

Klaw

  (1:51 PM)

No. Classic overmanaging by perhaps the greatest overmanager in the game.

Pat (DC)

Has your opinion of D. Espinosa changed? I expected less power coming off the hamate injury personally.

Klaw

  (1:51 PM)

Apparently - and I got this from at least one reader - he had been playing with the broken hamate for some time, and he just happened to get the surgery last year, so I'm a lot less surprised to see the power didn't change.

Kirk (The TC)

Are you voting for one of the awards at the end of the year? Who are leaning towards for it?

Klaw

  (1:52 PM)

I won't find that out for a few more weeks.

Steve (San Diego)

How far away are James Darnell and Jedd Gyorko from cracking the top 50?

Klaw

  (1:53 PM)

Hard to see either guy doing so. No defensive value to either, and I don't see either with the offensive upside of a Montero or a Sano.

Tom Tuttle (Tacoma)

Josh Satin: aging career minor-leaguer or late bloomer?

Klaw

  (1:53 PM)

Org player.

The Situation (Jouseey Shore)

Michael Choice top 100 yet or not until he cuts down on the k's?

Klaw

  (1:54 PM)

Too much swing and miss there. Slightly old for the level, in a good hitter's league.

Bret (Toronto)

What separates Mesoraco from d'Arnaud?

Klaw

  (1:55 PM)

More power and closer to the big leagues.

Tom (Toronto)

Please put the Lawrie to 2b issues to rest once and for all, there is zero chance he plays there ever, right?!

Klaw

  (1:55 PM)

In my opinion, no, no chance.

gregg (dc)

Is Kipnis ready defensively to take over the everyday 2b job? Cabrera's grave grows deeper by the day

Klaw

  (1:56 PM)

I don't think you can argue Kipnis is going to get better at 2b. He's as ready now as he's going to be.

jeremy (hershey)

why do we obsess over all of these prospects when most of them dont make it to the bigs?

Klaw

  (1:56 PM)

Because most of them do make it to the bigs.

Terence (NYC)

Now that the draft and your Top 50 prospects are finished, where do you shift your attention? Trade Deadline? Summer Leagues?

Klaw

  (1:57 PM)

Trade deadline, some AZL scouting, Area Code Games, maybe jumping to the Cal League on and off, and getting my daughter ready to start kindergarten later this month.

Jeff (Detroit)

Interesting Vizcaino passing Teheran (albeit, slightly) in your rankings. I remember Atlanta fans being upset about the Vazquez deal at the time. So where is Delgado now? He's outside your top 50 but how far down is he? I believe he was considered the #2 guy of those 3 not that long ago.

Klaw

  (1:58 PM)

Not really in their class - arm isn't as easy, fastball not at that level, breaking ball further away than Teheran's. Not calling him an NP, just not a 1 or a 2.

@Jaypers413 (IL)

Do you think the entire first round will sign before the midnight 8/15 deadline?

Klaw

  (1:59 PM)

I'll guess they all will. Toughest sign might be Swihart.

Micah (CT)

Don't you think it is much harder to manage a NL team with the pitcher hitting while an AL team is pretty much on autopilot the entire season

Klaw

  (1:59 PM)

No. When the pitcher comes up late in the game, the PH is automatic.

Carl (PA)

Chance of Vizcaino being converted to a reliever based on frequent arm problems not a factor in your rankings?

Klaw

  (2:01 PM)

Don't see "frequent arm problems" or any reason he'd go to the pen until and unless he blows out. It's front-of-the-rotation stuff, arm works well enough to do it.

Pat (Seattle)

Clemens got a mistrial today. Agree the government has wasted too many resources on this whole steroids witch hunt already?

Klaw

  (2:02 PM)

Yes.

noah (la)

Would Rubby De La Rosa be on this list if he wasnt already pitching in the big leagues? If so where?

Klaw

  (2:03 PM)

Yes. Probably top 20-25.

Efrim (Middletown, CT)

Does Edward Salcedo potentially make your Top 100 next year, or still too early for that?

Klaw

  (2:03 PM)

Looks like he's borderline for that right now.

Tito (Boston)

What has Wily Peralta done to go from outside the Top 100 to honorable mention for the Top 50? His numbers from this year seem relatively pedestrian

Klaw

  (2:03 PM)

Heard he was hitting 98 repeatedly in the matchup against Eovaldi last week - and he's getting groundballs, too.

Eric (Atlanta)

How come everything I've heard about Vizcaino labels him as a reliever? How does he project better than Teheran when he doesn't even possess an average changeup?

Klaw

  (2:05 PM)

I don't know, nor do I care what you've heard elsewhere. The value I provide to readers is independent opinions. Teheran doesn't possess an average breaking ball.

Joseph (Sacramento, CA)

KLaw, has Derrick Norris dropped due to his catching ability, his bat struggling or a combination of the two? Thanks.

Klaw

  (2:06 PM)

Bat. I don't like to overweight present-year stats, but I couldn't put him or Wilmer Flores (who also needs a position) on this list.

Cren (Vegas)

Do you like the J Garcia extension?

Klaw

  (2:07 PM)

I do. Tough for me to gauge the pricing of risk for an individual club, but it seems like they got enough of a discount to cover the fact that he's blown out once and doesn't have a great arm action.

Mike (Utica, NY)

Is there really any difference between Teheran and Henderson Alvarez?

Klaw

  (2:07 PM)

Teheran does it MUCH easier.

PK (NJ)

Loved your spot on analysis on zoowithroy.com today!

Klaw

  (2:08 PM)

That was brilliant. Between that and the @KlawThoughts twitter account I've been blessed with some good parodies lately.

Ryan (Pittsburgh)

What's your favorite Miyazaki film?

Klaw

  (2:08 PM)

Spirited Away is the best movie, but Totoro is a sentimental favorite in our house.

steve (anaheim)

Jake Arrieta - is he what you expected or is there upside left?

Klaw

  (2:09 PM)

This is roughly what I expected. Better defense behind him and he's probably a solid 4.

Klaw

  (2:09 PM)

Oh, didn't mean to ignore Vizcaino's changeup - solid-average, if not a tick better.

William (Las Vegas)

Bigger Selig mistake: the All-Star game counting or the '98 expansion?

Klaw

  (2:11 PM)

All-Star game. I don't view any of the expansions as a mistake.

Jeff (Detroit)

Back to Teheran, is it true that the slider is generally easier to learn than to consistently throw the curve? This may be hard to answer, but where does Teheran sit in the rotation with a good slider over a good (realizing he doesn't have it) curve? The differetial will be less on the slider relative to the fastball, not to mention staying closer to the same plane. Thanks.

Klaw

  (2:12 PM)

In general, you can teach a slider, but the curve is either "in the wrist" or it isn't.

Nick (Saginaw, MI)

Jacob Turner...when does he get called up?

Klaw

  (2:12 PM)

I have a feeling we'll see him in the next month or two. Tigers are very aggressive with prospects and they certainly need the starter.

Ryan (PA)

"That was brilliant" on your own article. At least you're modest, you little *******.

Klaw

  (2:14 PM)

You should probably read the other article before making such a complete fool of yourself.

Jim (Hartford, CT)

Do you ever start to like prospects less because of fans negative reactions about your ranking or evaluation on them? Like regarding Teheran, for example.

Klaw

  (2:15 PM)

My evaluations and rankings are based solely on my own opinions of the players and reports from trusted sources within the industry. Even when I say "industry consensus," I'm only limiting that to scouts or execs whose evals I trust.

Chris (Carnegie, PA)

At this point do you consider the Pirates choice of Taillon over Machado a mistake?

Klaw

  (2:15 PM)

No. Just not what I would have done. The two were, and are, close enough that either pick would have been a solid one.

Ryan (Pittsburgh, PA)

Just FYI, that wasn't me.

Klaw

  (2:15 PM)

Actually I figured the other Ryan spoke for every Ryan in the state of Pennsylvania.

John (Arlington)

What is Brad Peacock's ceiling?

Klaw

  (2:16 PM)

Most likely reliever. Given size/delivery/offspeed, hard to see him as the kind of starter in the majors that his minor league stat line would indicate.

Jonathan (Tampa, FL)

Thoughts on Robbie Erlin? 48/6 K/BB in 48 AA innings and only 20. Always puts up good numbers at a young age.

Klaw

  (2:16 PM)

Solid mid-rotation guy. Lacks the big fastball to make this list. Same for Surkamp, actually.

Josh (DC)

Do you have a blind spot when evaluating prospects? Is there a skill or attribute that you consistently go too high or low on that contribute to a missed evaluation? I would imagine all scouts have something that they have a hard time with given how subjective the whole enterprise can be. Thanks and great writing and podcast!

Klaw

  (2:17 PM)

Some skills are harder to evaluate or pick up unless you see a player regularly, like the ability to foul off tough pitches (which also doesn't show up in a stat line).

Ian (Ohio)

Do durability concerns with Tallion come from his own fragility, or the Pirates babying him?

Klaw

  (2:18 PM)

Just from how they're handling him. Kid's built like a horse.

Jeff (Houston)

Are the Astros on pace to have a Top 100 prospect by the end of the year?

Klaw

  (2:18 PM)

They have one on the top 50. I'm not great at math, but ... yeah.

Rich (Evanston, Il)

Josh Bell- any chance over 0% he signs?

Klaw

  (2:18 PM)

Nonzero. Just really low.

Keith (Cleveland)

Just trying to understand...how would a talent evaluator change their opinion on a pitcher if he has a slider vs. a curve, given the rest of the reportoire stays the same?

Klaw

  (2:21 PM)

Might have missed the first part of this, but the bigger question is whether he has any effective breaking ball to get same-side hitters out. It can be either one.

Kyle (Denver)

Klaw, i could care less about baseball but watching you rip on people makes my awful job go by quick. Thanks!!

Klaw

  (2:21 PM)

Gotta give 'em what they want.

MDK (AZ)

Started playing Tropic Euro on your recommendation. I know Puerto Rico is supposed to be one of the best board games of all time, but I feel like its pretty unbalanced. The Hard CPU almost never buys certain buildings whereas others feel way overpowered relative to similarly priced ones (Harbor in particular).

Klaw

  (2:23 PM)

The Harbor strategy is pretty tough to beat. I think there's an expansion or rules tweak that addresses that.

Tom (ME)

Keith, you seem to really enjoy (and frequently visit) the Disney resorts. Is that a more function of having a young daughter, or is Disney really such an ideal vacation spot for you?

Klaw

  (2:23 PM)

I do work for the company, so we get some discounts there that make it a good vacation spot for us.

Ryan (IL)

How big of trouble are the Cubs in? Lots of long-term bad contracts and little help on the horizon; what a bad combo...

Klaw

  (2:24 PM)

I have to figure a GM change is coming there. Not based on inside knowledge, just looking at it from the outside.

Klaw

  (2:24 PM)

Have to wrap this up - thanks for all the questions. Will try to keep up with the Conversation under the top 50.