Chat with KC Joyner
Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Need a deal update? i know u guys hear it first
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
Just follow Twitter. Reports on there are fast and furious.
Clinton Portis (TBD very soon)
Good afternoon TFS, are we gonna talk about Shady today? You know, the sleeper RB who could be the #1 fantasy RB by the end of the season. What do you say, 2300 yards & 14 TDs?
KC Joyner (4:02 PM)
Not sure about those yardage and TD totals but McCoy did post an 8.0 GBYPA last year and has a very favorable run D schedule. Gonna place him near the top of the RB list in the Draft Guide.
KC, we've all heard some of the big name teams that people have speculated Nnamdi could land (SF, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Philly, etc.). What are the chances he completely shocks everyone and goes to a team that isn't currently linked to him?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
How about his staying in Oakland? The Raiders have paid him big dollars in the past and may be more amenable to doing so again than other teams might be. Also should add Tampa to that list as a possibility.
James (South Jersey)
Let's talk scarcity for fantasy football. Running backs that carry the load are scarce. Elite defenses are scarce. Are any other positions scarce? What's the most scarce thing in fantasy?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
Elite tight ends. May be the rarest item in fantasy football.
Chris (Fort lauderdale)
Since the bills are around $35-38 million under cap, I see them re-signing both Florence and Poz but they still have alot of room to look at the free agency is it possible that they can be in the races for Tyson clabo, Doug Free, or Zach Miller? Is it possible to get 2 of those guys or do you think the Bills will be cheap as usual?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
The Bills will likely watch their dollars but it is possible they could acquire one of those guys. Only thing is that Dallas is likely to clear the table salary cap-wise in an effort to keep Free.
KC, you're not holding out for more money from ESPN, are you? You normally aren't late.
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
Not late today either! Got in just on time, was watching Twitter for the latest updates on the lockout.
Saw your WR metrics and it seemed like Brian Hartline did better then I thought. Do you think he is ready to become a solid NFL WR in his 3rd season?
KC Joyner (4:08 PM)
The difficulty for Hartline is finding a starting role. He won't start in front of Marshall and Bess is such a good possession receiver that Hartline probably won't start over him, either. If he can't increase the target totals (had only 71 last year), it's hard to say he'll have a breakout season.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Using my powers of deduction (and literacy)..your sleeper RB is Matt Forte!..worth drafting him in the 2nd round?
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
That's the name I've been keeping under wraps for the past few weeks. For those that might not have seen the article (there is a link to it on the NFL page), Forte's totals in numerous categories say he is just as productive as Adrian Peterson. And it wasn't just on pass plays, either, as his 7.5 GBYPA was better than Peterson's and was one of the best in the league.
Jimmy N (Arlington, VA)
KCJ you now I like your work, but you lost me on the Forte/AP article. You sure that was not just a "shockwave" column to get cheap page clicks? You are better than that. Tell me I am not being SAGE
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
Jimmy, that's not how the article process works. What happened in that case was that I ran the numbers for Bears and saw how fantastic Forte's totals were. Since I was researching an article on the NFC North, the next logical step was to look at Peterson's numbers. Once the two were compared, it showed Forte with a lead in many categories. That drove the idea for writing an article. The tape breakdown/numbers always drive the article ideas, not vice versa.
Tell me why Ahmad Bradshaw IS a top 10 RB in PPR format.
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
He had 334 targets last year and posted a 7.0 GBYPA. Those types of figures will get a RB placed in the top 10.
What is your favorite part of your job?
KC Joyner (4:13 PM)
The Thursday chat ranks at or near the top. Enjoy the heck out of these conversations.
I've mentioned this to pretty much every football analyst on these chats. Wouldn't Nnamdi fit perfectly into the bears defense? I mean their secondary last year was atrocious to say the least.
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
He's got the size to play CB in a cover-two (he's one of the largest CBs in the NFL) and his coverage skills are obviously top-notch. The big hurdle will be the contract, as he could cost as much as $18 million per season.
What's up KC? Long time no chat! Do you agree that it would serve the Giants best if they kept their focus on signing most (if not all) their own free agents before even considering any outsiders who would have little time to learn a whole new system?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
About week 10 or so last year, the Giants were the best team in the NFL. They could use some upgrades in certain areas (youth on the O line would help) but when a team is that close to being a true Super Bowl contender, making big changes is probably not a good idea. You've got the right idea, in other words.
Don't you think that both the owners and players have been blind to the needs of fantasy football owners? It's going to be a rough couple of weeks for us, too.
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
Ain't that the truth. We ought to pitch to get Matthew Berry and Eric Karabell seats at the negotiating table. They would get this thing moving so that fantasy owners have a smooth August/early September.
KING Kevin (Austin, TX)
Do you have any metrics on Terrell Pryor? IF not what is your assessment of him at the NFL level?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Did an article on Pryor a few weeks ago. The nutshell summary is that his level of play dropped significantly whenever he played a tough opponent. Doesn't bode well for a future where every opponent is going to be a tough one.
who do you think will have a better year, Foster or Charles?
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
Foster. He's more apt to get to the 350 carry/reception mark. The Chiefs have shown a hesitance to get Charles to that level and that keeps his upside under Foster's upside level.
KC, great contrarian article on Forte vs Peterson. Since that comparison was restricted to the NFC North, is there anyone out there beforming BOTH of those guys at a sustainable level?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
McCoy is one candidate. Get him to the 350 carry/target mark and a case could be made that he is the best RB in the NFL.
Assuming Darren McFadden can stay healthy this season, how productive do you expect him to be?
KC Joyner (4:21 PM)
His 8.5 GBYPA is almost off the charts (Charles led the league with a 9.0 GBYPA). Get him around 300 carries and he wins fantasy leagues almost by himself.
Clinton Portis (Bears, maybe)
Forte? Really? Forte ???? TFS, I could go to Chicago and put up better numbers than Forte. Forte over Shady, huh? I will keep an eye on that one during the season.
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
Only thing holding Shady back from topping most backs in the league is his lack of rush/target volume. Get him to an elite mark there and a case can be made for his being the best RB in the NFL. Keep him at/near the 300 mark and he's just like Charles - a great back but one whose limitations keep him from being the #1 RB.
Let's take a page out of PTI and play oddsmakers: Hakeem Nicks is the #1 fantasy WR at season's end.
KC Joyner (4:24 PM)
Try 3-1. He doesn't have a really tough schedule (only four red CBs as it stands right now). Big thing holding him back is if the Giants scale back their pass attempts by getting early leads and rushing their opponents to the finish.
Glad to see Tom Moore added to the Jets staff? Most Jet fans, myself included, can't stand Brian Schottenheimer. He never learns from his mistakes. Is it possible to measure metrics for playcalling or are there too many variables?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
It's certainly possible. Schottenheimer held back in his playcalling, probably in large part due to his not trusting Sanchez (who had a very high bad decision rate). If Moore can get Sanchez to lower his mistake rate and get Schottenheimer to trust him, the Jets offense will reach a new level 2011.
H. Solo (Corellia, Outer Rim)
Suppose Deangelo Williams goes to the Broncos - where do you rank him? Thanks KC!
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Williams historical GBYPA totals have been great. Only problem is Denver's O line had good run blocking only 43.9 percent of the time last year. That is a low number and unless it improves, it will hinder any RB from doing well in that backfield.
Is your guide book still coming out this week?
KC Joyner (4:30 PM)
The TFS Fantasy Football Draft Guide is in its last stages. It's taken a bit longer than initially thought because of the additional material added to it (went hog wild on running back reviews, up from last year's 50 or so to nearly 100). Am aiming to have it done by the end of the weekend. I'll post an update later today/early tomorrow on www.thefootballscientist.com (which, incidentally, is where the guide is available for order - only site plug of the chat).
Brian E. (paoli, in)
im about to pee myself with anticipation! Can't wait for fantasy draft! With rumors of farve coming back maybe, would he possibly fit in with the titans?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
First we have to deal with the lockout and now we'll have to deal with more Favre stories? I feel like the Jay Leno character in that Bill Hicks routine.
When do I get to read your entire first draft of metrics and get the first look at the draft guide?
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Will be sending more metrics out by tomorrow morning (will do that at the same time the TFS site note is being posted) to everyone who has pre-ordered the draft guide.
Joke of the day for Jimmy......How do you like your Sage Rosenfels? (its clean)
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
Don't make me regret posting this, Matt!
Rick (irvine, ca)
Whose this year's Nicks... the stud WR no one but TFS see's coming?
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
One possibility is Leonard Hankerson. He had superb numbers last season (they rivaled Green and Jones' totals) and fits the Shanahan system well.
Al (Wausau, WI)
KC, now to the all-important question: What is Mrs. Scientist fixing for supper tonight?
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
The menu is: roast chicken, baby potatoes, carrots and rice. Maybe biscuits if our sons ask for them. The chicken is already done and it smells terrific, can't wait to sit down at the dinner table.
If elite TE's are the most scarce does that make them the most valuable? Meaning should they be considered in early rounds?
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Not quite in the early rounds but taking someone like Antonio Gates a round earlier than the rest of the draft room says he should taken is a good idea. He's the kind of TE who can give your team a 5-8 point lead over the other TE quite often.
r2d2 (a galaxy far far away)
Shonn Greene abused my fantasy team last year, but I think he's really changed this year! am I crazy
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
It's hard to make a call on Shonn. He'll get 250-300 carries this year (if not more), so that puts him into an elite status in one way. Only problem is that his 5.6 GBYPA was simply abysmal last year. If that number doesn't improve, it will be difficult for the Jets to keep giving him carries.
Al (Wausau, WI)
Thanks, KC. Ironically enough, roast chicken is on my menu for supper tonight as well!
KC Joyner (4:38 PM)
Let's raise a toast to roast chicken!
Wait what???? Favre rumors? No. NoNoNoNoNo!
PLEASE stop any and all Favre comeback talks!!!!!
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
We've all had a rough enough offseason, Brett. Don't do this to us.
Tom (Virginia Beach)
You can't be humble for this question. Do you think FA players, for example a WR, should look at metrics of the QB and the OL before deciding to sign somewhere?
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
Bill James often wrote about how a free agent's career might have progressed differently if he had looked at how he fit with a particular time rather than just seeing which team was offering the biggest paycheck. FA players in the NFL should do the same via both metrics and team building (rather like the Secret of Basketball that Bill Simmons' wrote so brilliantly about in his Book of Basketball).
Hello KC, do you think Brandon Marshall will bounce back this year?
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
Not sure because he really didn't play any different in Miami than he had played in Denver. He's a possession WR with solid vertical skills and Miami really needs/wants him to be a vertical WR. As long as they design plays for him that accentuate his skill set, he can be a Pro Bowl WR for them.
KC, you can't cop out by saying a rookie will be the break-out! You've been sage in predicting the break-out seasons of Wayne, White, and Nicks. Give us a young guy who can put up numbers!
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
Not a cop out at all, just figuring he can have a good future (think of it as a shout out to dynasty league owners). As far as a vet WR, try Johnny Knox. He had great totals last year in every category expect attempts. If he can move his attempt mark into the 125 range (something that is possible given that Cutler tends to play favorites), he can be a terrific fantasy WR.
Hey KC my question today is about ATL's offense. I've read your article on how you think JJ will impact our offense but do you think we'll begin to see more of a spread? With Tony G and Michael Turner getting up in age and the addition of rodgers as well (and that turner does nothing in terms of catching) what will the offense look like? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
One reason Atlanta ran the ball so much last year is that their schedule was chock full of teams with average or worse run defenses. The schedule is much more favorable for passing this season (Ryan has a terrific matchup strength number in the draft guide) so more of a spread offense approach would be a very sensible move.
KC, loyal customer on the draft guide for years!. when do you envision shipping to the pre-orders?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
Very soon, aiming for it to go out by the end of the weekend. It will be the biggest TFS Draft Guide ever produced, which is why it is being released a bit later than initially expected.
Sage Rosenfels (NY)
(still waiting on that joke there Matt from work...)
Jimmy N (Arlington, VA)
(...still waiting on that punchline from Matt on the Sage joke...)That's what I thought, Matt. Good decision.
KC Joyner (4:47 PM)
Matt, you got the punchline for this? The audience is waiting!
Not a (Scientist)
Sorry..but what exactly is GBYPA?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
It stands for good blocking yards per attempt. It gauges how well a running back does when his blockers give him a favorable run blocking situation. Since most RBs gain only one yard per carry on plays with poor blocking, doing well in this metric is key to good overall production.
I like my Sage Rosenfels with a bed of rice pilaf served on aluminu bench!
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
Jimmy, I think Matt just knocked your favorite QB! Care to retort?
Mike (Little Rock)
After the top 30-40 rated fantasy players come off the board, which position does the quality drop off the fastest RB or WR?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
RB by far. With WRs, one can find value both from a target volume and quality matchup perspective. With RBs, the value at that point is handcuffs or taking chances on players who might end up winning a starting role.
Michael (El Paso)
With the possibility of Marian Barber getting cut, how do you feel about Felix Jones and possible vulture Demarco Murray?
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
Jones ended up with only 237 rushes/pass targets last year. Having Murray and Choice in the backfield probably means he'll have trouble topping that total this year.
What do you think about Matt Cassel? did he peak last year or do you think he will continue to grow as the supporting cast improves?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Cassel's issue is the same as it has been since his NE days - he's not very good at throwing vertical passes. Adding Baldwin will help but Cassel had Moss when Moss was coming off of one of the best seasons in NFL history and still wasn't able to post quality vertical numbers. It may be a weakness the Chiefs have to live with, or least work around as best they can.
I know there is a better chance of Mr. Rooney coming to my house and signing me off of the street than this, but wouldn't Pittsburgh be a good fit for Reggie Bush and Randy Moss in a dream scenario??
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
Pittsburgh tends to go with power backs, so Bush might not be a good fit for them. Regarding Moss, they already have a dominant speedster in Wallace. Also can't see them adding someone with a history of locker room issues.
I know it's tough but any ideas on who might be this year's Foster?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
Hard to say. One of the things this year's draft guide is doing is taking a look at the run blocking prowess of every O line. The Foster scenario would happen if a back on one of the top run blocking O lines found a way into a bell cow role. Don't see any clear cut places that could happen, but that could change in the next few weeks (assuming all goes well with the lockout ending).
James (South Jersey)
Elite QB + Almost-elite RB second-tier RB vs. Elite RB, almost-elite RB, and second-tier QB. What's a better strategy?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
Two elite/near elite RBs are generally a better play than one elite QB and a near elite RB.
You are a WR going across the middle. Who is the one defender you dont want to see coming at you with full head of steam? Today and all-time
KC Joyner (5:00 PM)
James Harrison and Dick Butkus get the TFS votes. Well, dinner is now just about ready to be served and I'm starvin' like Marvin, so it's time to run. Two quick notes: the TFS material is always posted on Twitter @kcjoynertfs (also try to answer as many questions as possible) and the draft guide/start-sit service info can be found at www.thefootballscientist.com. Hope to see you all here next week!