Joe Lunardi

  (4:06 PM)

Greetings, all. Coming to all from ESPNU in Charlotte, where tonight at 630p ET we reveal the pairings for BracketBusters 2012. Fun stuff all around!

Pollster (Lexington, KY)

Hey Joe... seems a lot of people are apprehensive about getting aboard the Wildcat train. O'neil wrote on Sunday that UK was the beneficiary of a soft SEC schedule in that only Arkansas was an above .500 team on their Schedule... Well only Michigan is an above .500 team on Ohio State's schedule. I'm not buying that this team is smoking opponents on the road because they are soft opponents. OKST, Iowa St, Illinois, Notre Dame, all these teams upset their respective conference leaders. Are you buying or selling Kentucky's schedule?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:08 PM)

It's not a question of "buying" or "selling" Kentucky's schedule. It's a question of LOVING the talent. UK has always been a Final Four team (or more) in my eyes.

Jason (NYC)

If Notre Dame wins out at home (vs. Marq, Depaul, Rutg, WVa, & Prov) that makes them at worst 11-7 in the Big East and 19-11 overall heading into the BE Tourney. Would they be in riding on the 2 road wins (Louisville

Joe Lunardi

  (4:09 PM)

The Irish are an interesting case, Jason, but I think ultimately a successful one. The RPI numbers will take care of themselves as the "good wins" pile up.

Bryant Northington (Tuscaloosa)

How do you explain MSU being an 8 seed while Bama is a 7 even though Bama just lost 4 in a row?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:11 PM)

This was a procedural swap (detailed in the weekly RUNDOWN column). Otherwise Mississippi State would be paired for a third-round rematch with Baylor. Things like this happen all the time in bracketing.

Keith (Lexington, Ky.)

If Murray State wins out and finishes undefeated, do you see them any higher than a six seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:12 PM)

Yes, Keith, but not too much higher. We'll be discussing this at length on tonight's BracketBusters show. It will also be helpful to draw (and beat) the best-available BracketBusters opponent.

Matt (Dayton )

Hey Joe! Everyone here in Flyerland is stunned that Dayton is still in your bracket even with that loss to dreadful Rhode Island. Is the bubble that bad or is UD's resume that good? Also, how much breathing room do they have?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:13 PM)

Dayton's resume is MUCH better than people think. I have the Flyers with seven wins over teams currently under consideration. That's a lot (especially the win at Temple!).

Snipes (New York City)

While your brackets are based on the season-to-date, but let's speculate a bit on Murray State: I know the Atlantic-10 is a better conference than the Ohio Valley, but how would the Racers' resume stand up to the St. Joseph's resume from 2004? As you recall, the Hawks got a #1 seed despite their loss in the Atlantic-10 tournament.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:14 PM)

In a word or two, Snipes, "not good." Those Hawks swept a four-bid Atlantic 10 and had the nation's No. 1 non-conference schedule. Murray State, while very good, has a sub-200 schedule and has good, but not great wins to date.

Brad (STL)

What will it take to make Mizzou a #1 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:15 PM)

A win over Kansas on Saturday.

Paul (Columbus)

Do you think inconsistent conference play from early top 25 teams such as Louisville, Seton Hall, and UConn, has artificially inflated the whole conference, making teams such as Notre Dame and UC, who played so poorly in nonconference, slightly overrated? By my calculations Big East teams in your current bracket are 4-9 vs nonconference top 25 opponents, which seems bad for having 9 teams in.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:16 PM)

The Big East is often about quantity, not quality (in relative terms), so I agree with you to a degree. But we have to be truthful and acknowledge that last year's ninth-place team (9-9 in the league) won the national championship.

Matt (Brooklyn, NY)

Joe...with ESPN Bracketbusters around the corner, curious to hear your take on the Iona Gaels and their status as an elite mid-major in the country? Where do you see their ranking range (best/worst case) and can this team make some noise in the dance with their 3 potential NBA players in Scott Machado, Momo Jones and Mike Glover?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:17 PM)

Love to watch Iona score. Love to watch teams score on Iona. You get the idea, Matt. Some nights, Machado and Momo are the leading scorers for both teams....

WCC Fan (Seattle)

Joe. Come March, who do you think gets more teams into the tournament, the WCC or the Pac-12?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:18 PM)

Two each right now, but the WCC has a much better chance for three (with BYU).

James (Ohio)

What are your thoughts on Xavier traveling to Memphis this Saturday, who do you like? Who needs the game more?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:18 PM)

I think Xavier does, James, because Memphis has a far better chance to win its conference tournament if needed (as the Tigers are again hosting).

Nate (Woburn, MA)

Joe, great to see UMASS in this week's bracketology. Based on the SOS do they have to go no worse that 6-3 and make the SF of the A10 to solidify a spot in the tourney?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:20 PM)

UMass is a bit of a placeholder right now, as someone among Mass, Bona and La Salle had to be included as co-leaders at 5-2. It's not likely to hold for any of them, as none are very close on the at-large board.

Arturo (Las Vegas, NV)

Joe, who are the 4-5 best unranked mid-major teams in the country in your opinion?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:21 PM)

Off the top of my head, I'd go with Wichita State, Nevada, Long and Beach State. I don't consider A-10 and C-USA as mid-majors.

Matt (St. Louis)

Joe, do you think the winner of the big 12 regular season will get a number 1 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:22 PM)

Yes.

Scott (Chicago)

I'm an Orange follower in the Midwest. Assuming Melo comes back and Syracuse finishes strong...how much does/will the committee weight any potential losses in his absence when determining top seeds?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:23 PM)

If Melo comes back, I believe Syracuse will be the No. 1 overall seed. They are even now on my board.

Brent (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)

why all the Vanderbilt love?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:23 PM)

Why not? Four Top 50 wins, 5-1 in the SEC, 4-1 on the road, big win at Marquette, etc.

Chris (Springfield, MA)

What makes UNLV a #3 right now?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:24 PM)

There aren't 12 teams on the board with better profiles.

Dan (Hatboro, PS)

Do you feel this is shaping up to be one of the strongest bottom quarters of the bracket? If they can take care of business in the conference tournament, there are a lot of 13-15 seeds that you don't want to play, but really don't have the profile for an at-large. Just looking at your bracket, would anyone be that surprised if any of those 13 or 14 seeds won a game?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:25 PM)

Great point, Dan. We're could see teams like Long Beach, Iona, Davidson and Nevada on those lines. All are good enough to play and beat potential No. 3 and No. 4 seeds.

Brandon C (Louisville)

Even though Louisville has been going through struggles lately, don't you think that a #8 seed is too low? With several chances for quality Big East wins, several players returning from injury, and a chance to make a run in the Big East tournament I believe Louisville has a chance to make their seed better, don't you?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:27 PM)

Of course, Brandon. Every team can improve (or worsen) their current seed. I certainly wouldn't want to face Louisville or Rick Pitino in an early round as a No. 1 seed.

Mike (Murray, KY)

Joe, Bracketbuster games get released tonight and Murray could draw Wichita State or Saint Mary's (hopefully Saint Mary's). Should they draw Saint Mary's and handle them like they can, will this bring faith to you and and other critics that Murray State is deserving of their ranking and possibly in your opinion make them deserving of anything better than that at best 5 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:28 PM)

It's not criticism, Mike, it's realistic evaluation based on past Committee actions. Should be the marquee BracketBusters game regardless.

Theo (NYC)

Hi Joe. Is your estimation of Duke as a 1-seed based on a projection that they place first in the ACC regular season, win the ACC tournament, or both?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:29 PM)

Theo, it's based solely on the evaluation of Duke as having the nation's fourth-best profile TODAY. I'd fully expect one of the Big 12 teams to separate and claim that spot over the long run.

Larry (Washington, DC)

Hey Joe. How much do you attempt to follow the "rules" the committee uses. For example, you have IU as a 5 seed with the potential to play ND in the round of 64 (if ND beats UW in the play in game). Wouldn't this go against the "rule" of not having regular season re-matches in the rounds of 64 and 32 or does this rule not really exist?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:30 PM)

We follow all such "rules" (even those which are guidelines), and I honestly missed this one. Then again, the Committee didn't have any trouble allowing rematches in those rounds a year ago. Sometimes other bracketing principles force your hand.

Daniel (WV)

I'm optimistic about your prediction for West Virginia. I like the schedule the rest of the way, but isn't 5 a little high at least until they do a little more?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:32 PM)

Remember, Daniel, no team is seed in a vacuum. Everyone floats up (or down) depending both on their own performance as well as others near them on the S-Curve. Hope that makes sense.

Steve (Amherst)

Whats your take on the A10, who do u see making the tourney when the season wraps up?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:32 PM)

Temple and the conference tournament winner are the only "locks" I'd give at this point. The rest will be a month-long scramble.

Link (Anchorage)

UW Huskies have quietly won 9 of their last 11, including 3 road wins. I see you have them back in the bracket next to Notre Dame. This team is very young, but appears to be learning a lot and finally winning on the road. Where do you see them ultimately ranking in the tourney barring any more bad losses this year.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:33 PM)

Let's avoid those "bad losses" (of which the Pac-12 provides ample opportunity) before we go overboard on any team from that conference.

Nils (frankfurt, germany)

Hey Joe. I'm a big fan, please answer! How many wins do you anticipate it will take for my Minnesota Gophers to make the tournament? 19, 20, 21? Thank You!

Joe Lunardi

  (4:35 PM)

It's not so much the total, Nils, but which NCAA "scalps" that total includes. I'd say Minnesota's odds are 50/50 (or slightly better) at this point.

LB (Montana)

Can if BYU wins on Thr against GU at home and makes it to the WCC championship round, is there a snowballs chance that they could get an at large bid? and will GU win their 12th WCC reg champ or do you see it as St. Mary's all the way?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:36 PM)

Saint Mary's is the best team in the WCC, with Gonzaga close behind. If BYU goes 0-4 against them in the regular season, the door to an at-large will probably close.

charles (philadelphia)

if la salle doesnt win the atlantic 10, do you think they can still get a bid to march madness?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:36 PM)

No, the non-conference beef simply isn't there for the Explorers.

Matt (NYC)

Baylor wins the Big 12 and beats Kansas and MIZZU avenging last weeks losses. Do they get the last #1 seed regardless of how the ACC plays out?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:37 PM)

I believe so, yes...

Ashley (Lincoln, NE)

Hypothetical BB match-up, St Mary's at Creighton, who wins?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:37 PM)

Creighton doesn't loss at home very often, correct? So the actual match up may not matter much.

Kevin (New York)

Do you think Marquette can get a 2 seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:38 PM)

A bit of a reach, Kevin, I think.

Matt (VA)

What do you think of the CAA so far? Mason leads, but ODU/VCU/Drexel are all one ghame back and playing great bball

Joe Lunardi

  (4:39 PM)

Drexel and VCU are the two best teams to my eyes.

Dan (Ohio)

How bad did the 3OT loss this weekend hurt Wichita State?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:40 PM)

A blip, Dan, not to worry.

tony (lincoln, ne)

if the huskers win out at home (michigan, illinois, iowa, minnesota) and win 2 out of 5 on the road (minnesota, norwestern, penn st, purdue, michigan st) they will finish 9-9 in the big 10. will that get them in the tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:40 PM)

We played this game last year with Nebraska and it didn't work in the Big 12. Why should we think it will work in the deeper Big Ten?

SMG (NYC, NY)

In an effort to prove once and for all that DUKE is not the darlings of the committee, they will receive a number one seed and become the first #1 seed to lose to a #16 seed. True or false?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:41 PM)

I could live with that...

John (Newark)

What is this whole bracketbuster thing Joe?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:41 PM)

Tune in to ESPNU at 630p ET and we'll try to explain it!

Ari (Philadelphia, PA)

Is there any chance that the CAA will be a multi-bid conference this year? Is Mason, VCU, ODU or Drexel potentially worthy of an at-large berth?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:42 PM)

Not happening this year, Ari, sorry.

Brian (NJ)

Is Washington in the bracket right now as a formality b/c they are leading the PAC 12, or would they be in as an at large?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:42 PM)

The Huskies are the second-to-last at-large (ahead of Colorado State).

Jon (Queens)

with such a weak bubble do you see an opportunity for a team like the pitt panthers to play themselves back into the convo? if you look at there sched they could certainly make there way back to around .500 in conf play. and as usuall they would have to take into account the improvement with woodall yes?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:43 PM)

Not out of the question, Jon. Was looking at that very possibility on my flight this morning.

Brendan (Buffalo)

Joe, you mentioned that the three current A-10 co-leaders are not close to being at-large teams. If any of the three win the A-10 regular season title at 12-4 and then lose in the A-10 tourney finals could they get in?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:44 PM)

Would have to really study the unbalanced schedule of the league to assess "two-plays" vs. "one-plays" among the contenders. Off the top of my head, I think it's unlikely for any of the current 5-2 teams to be an at-large selection.

CT (Gainesville)

Joe, what do you see as Florida's ceiling with 2 showdowns vs Kentucky and Vanderbilt left, plus a rematch at Miss. St.?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:44 PM)

Probably a No. 2 seed, CT.

Brandon (Decatur, IL)

Do you think there is any chance of a big 10 team getting into the tournament with a losing conference record? It might be possible with all the depth in the league.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:45 PM)

It's absolutely possible, Brandon, but I hate the idea regardless. Teams should have to make themselves tourney-eligible by going at least .500 in league play.

John (Washington)

Hey Joe, just out of curiosity, do you have Georgetown as a 3 and Marquette as a 4 because you think Georgetown will finish higher in the conference or simply because you think they are a better team? (or because Georgetown won their only head to head match up thus far?)

Joe Lunardi

  (4:46 PM)

John, it's because I've evaluated Georgetown as having the slightly better season to date (just as the Committee would).

Brad (Atlanta)

Hey Joe, are you downgrading UVA a bit too much? You have Vandy as a 4 and FSU as a 6 and a UM team (that they beat) as a 4, but UVA as a 7. What's your gripe against the 'Hoos?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:47 PM)

Non-conference schedule No. 238, that's Virginia's issue. Read my column today for more.

Alex (Iowa)

Hey Joe, do you think Iowa State will make the tournament if the finish 4th in the Big 12? Or will the soft non conference hurt them?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:47 PM)

They would almost certainly make it with a fourth-place finish, Alex.

Maheer (Syracuse) [via mobile]

Hey Joe! Who do you think looks like a strong overall #1 seed? Syracuse or Kentucky? Which team do you think has the chance to make the Final Four? Also, your thoughts on Syracuse? Thanks!

Joe Lunardi

  (4:48 PM)

It's still Syracuse, Maheer, and it's not really close (assuming Melo comes back).

Wade (Seattle)

UNLV, SDSU, Wyoming, Colorado St, in that order all making it?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:48 PM)

You're forgetting New Mexico, Wade, which slots in after the top two. Colorado State and especially Wyoming are long shots.

Brian (Tampa)

How is USF tied 3rd in the Big East and still you don't have them dancing?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:50 PM)

Record against currently considered teams? I have USF at 2-6, and that includes Cleveland State as one of the wins. Sorry...

Joe Lunardi

  (4:51 PM)

OK, heading down the home stretch on time. Let's take five more rapid-fire.

Jin Parker (Boone, NC)

Can Murray State get into the NCAA tourny with three loses, one of them being in the conference tourny?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:51 PM)

Yes.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:51 PM)

Yes.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:51 PM)

Yes.

Rod (Austin)

What does Texas need to get off the bubble and into the dance? Simply beat Mizzou or Baylor?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:52 PM)

Tonight would be a great start...

John (Charlotte NC)

What does UNC have to do to make as a number one seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:52 PM)

Run and hide in the ACC (still very possible, I think).

Jacob (Brookings, S.D.)

Do you think The Summit League could garner two bids (one at-large bid)? Oral Roberts is 10-0 in conference play and South Dakota State is 8-1 (losses at ORU and at defending league champion Oakland), but SDSU did beat a 'Last Four In' Washington squad handily.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:52 PM)

Nope.

DJ (Cuse)

How safe are the Zags?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:53 PM)

Very.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:53 PM)

Still a little time, so let's stay at this rapid-fire thing...

Jeff (Baltimore)

Loyola MD MAAC Champs?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:53 PM)

Only if the coach stays on the bench.

Allen (Omaha)

Creighton in the final four?? is that going too far?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:54 PM)

Yes, I would question them at the defensive end against elite competition.

Seth Greenberg (Blacksburg)

What are you gonna do without me this year?!

Joe Lunardi

  (4:54 PM)

Get yelled at by somebody else...

john (chicago)

Who you got saturday? Mizzou or Ku?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:54 PM)

The home team.

Scott (Tuscaloosa)

If Alabama gets to 9-7 in the SEC with two of those wins coming against Florida and Miss St, how high of a seed could they get?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:55 PM)

Range would be 7-9, I think.

Nick (Milwaukee)

Marquette final four contenders?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:55 PM)

Not out of the question.

Brian (NJ)

Is there any way the PAC 12 is a one bid league? Has that ever happened before for a Power 6 conference?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:55 PM)

Yes and no (at least not since the 60s/70s).

Mitch (Michigan)

Can Gators make a Final Four run?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:55 PM)

Yes.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:56 PM)

Yes.

Gavin (Princeton)

If Harvard doesn't win the Ivy (they were supposed to beat us last year and didn't), will they get an at-large?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:56 PM)

Doubtful.

john (omaha, ne)

who is creighton playing in the braketbuster.lol

Joe Lunardi

  (4:56 PM)

Who do you want to play?

Esme (Mankato)

Can the Gophers make the sweet 16?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:57 PM)

Of what??

Matt (Cincinnati)

What is Xavier's ceiling if they only lose one more conference game?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:57 PM)

I'll believe it when I see it...

Graham (lawrence, ks)

Is Kansas St slipping towards the bubble?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:58 PM)

I would say sliding, not slipping. They should turn it around.

matt (utah)

Does Calipari get his first title?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:58 PM)

Depends on Feb Melo.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:58 PM)

Over and out, gang. I'm out of time...