David Schoenfield

  (1:00 PM)

OK, let's get going. I'll have to leave at 2 sharp today for a meeting.

Lincoln (Missouri)

If the Cardinals do end up signing Roy Oswalt, how would you rate their rotation compared to say the Phillies and Yankees?

David Schoenfield

  (1:01 PM)

I still don't see it. Kyle Lohse had his career year, Jake Westbrook isn't that good (although he'd probably be the odd man out), we don't know what to expect from Adam Wainwright and I worry a little about Carpenter and Garcia after a long season for them.

SDILincoln (Colorado)

I read the transcript of last weeks's chat where you compared Nova, Luebke, Holland, and Minor. I'm curious how you would rank Matt Harrison in this same field.

David Schoenfield

  (1:02 PM)

I like him a lot, definitely more so than Nova and Minor. Believe his improvement was real, good numbers in a tough park, gets DPs and keeps the HRs to a minimum. Very solid pitcher.

Austin (A's fan in NYC)

Dave,Based on everything from current on-field talent to front-office aptitude, ownership and ballpark situations, division, and payroll considerations, how would you rank the teams facing the longest roads to serious contention? I'm thinking 1 Baltimore (farthest from contention); 2 Houston; 3 Mets; 4 Pittsburgh; fifth?Mariners? I?m hoping not my A?s, but they're probably part of the conversation.

David Schoenfield

  (1:05 PM)

I think everyone agrees the Astros have the least talent in the organization (from majors down to the minors). But they do at least play in the NL Central, so they may be able to rebuild in 3-4 years. Considering their division, I agree with you: Orioles are probably No. 1 on this list, even though they have some talent in the bigs and on the farm. I'd probably rank the A's "ahead" of the Mariners. Ballpark situation just too big of a negative.

Marcus (DC)

Rankings are a fun read and good fodder for discussion, such as...Adam Wainwright ranked as the 3rd best #3 pitcher in the division?? I'll expect more after 13+ months post TJ surg...why don't you?

David Schoenfield

  (1:06 PM)

I just don't think we can ASSUME he'll be as good as he was. Look, obviously there's a good chance I'll be wrong there. But I think the logical approach is to discount him a bit (for now) from what he was -- both in performance and workload.

Brian (Indy)

David, why is baseball so far behind in football as far as marketing of the league? I live in Indy and after watching the past week, baseball really needs to spruce up the World Series.

David Schoenfield

  (1:08 PM)

Good question. Football of course has the advantage of knowing where the Super Bowl will be played in advance. You can't plan all those types of parties, fan stuff and so on with two days' notice. Still, I wish MLB would figure out a way to do more at the World Series ... bring back old stars, announce the MVP and Cy Young winners during the World Series, etc. There are still things they can do.

Doug (Cincy)

I take it from your blog post you don't think there is any chance of Votto staying in Cincy.

David Schoenfield

  (1:10 PM)

You know ... I should have mentioned that it's not a foregone conclusion he'll leave. I apologize for that. I *do* think it's possible he'll stay, although it does appear that there will be more suitors out there with money than there were for Prince. (And I hope he does stay.)

Turner (Boise, ID)

Ok, serious question finally after my poke at Montero. How do you see the M's left field options shaking out? Revolving door or do they settle on someone out of camp?

David Schoenfield

  (1:11 PM)

I think they end up with a Mike Carp/Casper Wells platoon for the most part. If Carp DHs, Wells probably plays more. Not sure there's room on the roster for another outfielder. Figgins assumes the "emergency" outfield role.

Franklin (Cleveland)

David, does Jason Kipnis have "Dan Uggla" like upside? I see a kid that can hit with serious power (maybe less than Uggla) from 2B, but the average is going to be tough. What do you think of Kipnis' future? Thanks.

David Schoenfield

  (1:13 PM)

I think he's a little more well-rounded than Uggla. Not quite as much power, but a better defender, shouldn't strike as much and thus should hit for a better average. I'm a big fan of Kipnis and would rate him as future All-Star material.

Patrick (Chicago)

Don't the Mariners have Felix, Ackley, Montero & a bunch of good young arms? Seems like they are not even in the discussion. I would think a team like the White Sox, with lots of bad contracts, aging stars, and no farm system would be on higher on the list than the Mariners.

David Schoenfield

  (1:15 PM)

I'm a Mariners fan but I think the future looks better than it has at any point in the decade. They're in a tough division, of course, but if Hultzen and Paxton reach the majors this year and Walker next season, the rotation could be formidable by 2014 and by then they'll have money to pursue a couple big bats to complement Ackley, Montero and maybe Smoak.

Chris (kc)

100% recovery from Tommy John surgery isn't guaranteed. Too many people want to assume it.

Mike (chicago)

I want to be insulted by the ranking of the Cubs in your NL Central piece. I want to live in a world where it's a great injustice and I can harp on your obvious anti-cub bias. But instead I live in this world, and think, if anything, you may have them rated too high. Been a long time since I went into a cub season with no hope and little faith. 2013 doesn't look any better. At least the beer is cold and the coeds in the bleachers are hot and they haven't bulldozed Wrigley yet.

Jay (Kalamazoo)

Is it because of the significant gap between Detroit and the rest of the Central that they aren't feeling an immense amount of pressure to get an established back-end starter?

David Schoenfield

  (1:17 PM)

Or maybe they believe Jacob Turner is ready for the role. And Drew Smyly may not be far behind. If they *need* a fifth starter, they can always get one in July.

SDILincoln (Colorado)

The Astros are moving to the AL West in 2013, so their road to recovery won't be as easy.

David Schoenfield

  (1:18 PM)

Oops. Of course. That probably puts them a step behind (ahead?) the Orioles. Although .. the Astros are NOT a small-market team or even a mid-market team. Although the previous owner treated them as such. We'll see if Crane wants to win or just make nice profits.

Jamison (Seattle, WA)

When the Mariners win the AL West this year, will it go down as one of the greatest upsets of all time?

David Schoenfield

  (1:18 PM)

I like your thinking ...

nicki (san diego)

please recommend one or two books to get started with sabrmetrics.

David Schoenfield

  (1:19 PM)

Hmm, good question. Actually, this may be a good start if you're interested in more advanced sabermetrics: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/

Cubfan (Chicago)

Do you take the comments on your posts to heart? I mean if you did, you'd almost have to intentionally overrate the cardinals every year just to avoid the backlash of not picking them to win 120 games every year. I think you did a pretty fair job on the NL Central piece, don't let the haters bring you down.

David Schoenfield

  (1:21 PM)

It's part of the gig. The only thing that can be annoying is when fans think you *hate* their team because you rated them lower or whatever. That is never the case. I would never be so dishonest. If you want to disagree with me, fine. But I understand that I'm attempting to be objective about the topic.

Dale (KY)

Have seen some rumors about Lannan to the Angels for Bourgos? Isn't that a little crazy? If the Angels want to do that, why not trade for Randy Wells who is better, cheaper, has a better track record and a better WAR? Would fit Theo's MO of trading now for years of control.

David Schoenfield

  (1:22 PM)

Completely crazy. I'm a big fan of Bourjos and he's worth much more than Lannan OR Wells.

Confused (Baltimore)

Dan Duquette, misunderstood genius or delusional? He seems to be tilting at windmills to me. What am I missing?

David Schoenfield

  (1:24 PM)

Yeah, I'm not quite sure what the Guthrie trade was all about. I know he saves money with Hammel and he gets two years of team control with Hammel and Lindstrom, but seems Guthrie could have been flipped for a good prospect with SIX years of team control. Not a terrible trade, but not one that really accomplishes anything for Baltimore.

Matt (NY)

Free Howard Megdal! Or are you afraid that if you post it you'll be denied access to Citi Field, too?

David Schoenfield

  (1:25 PM)

Weird situation. I suspect the Baseball Writers Association will step in. This happened once in hockey when the Islanders tried to ban a writer and the hockey writers association had to intercede.

Jacob (Georgia)

There's been a lot of noised centered around the NL East this offseason, and almost none of it is directed towards my Braves (I'm not complaining). Heyward has lost 20 pounds in an effort to become leaner, and beat reporter Mark Bowman seems to think he's in for a huge bounce back season. With the depth of the rotation, a top 5 bullpen (at least), and a potentially potent offense if Heyward, Uggla, and Prado bounce back, do you think the Braves have a good chance at taking the division?

David Schoenfield

  (1:27 PM)

Yeah, I can't really fault the Braves for not doing anything. Their hopes for improvement come from Heyward getting healthy and better and Freeman improving, maybe McCann playing a little better. With the health issues of Hanson and Jurrjens, I don't really think they were in a position to trade one or two of their young starters. So ... yes, the NL East will be brutal, but I think the Braves will be in the race.

kevin (denver)

Your thoughts on Dealin Dan O'Dowd? Total make over of the Rox...stacking the line up with "old" veterans until the farm is ready, and stockpiling young pitching...Does this make sense?

David Schoenfield

  (1:29 PM)

It's interesting. One of the few GMs with the guts to simultaneously "go for it" and "rebuild" at the same time. It makes sense in that he didn't give up anything for the old guys except money. If they work out, he likes like a genius. If it doesn't, well, at least he didn't mortgage the future. I'm surprised more teams don't do this, actually.

Jeff (OH)

David, I was slightly surprised to see SFO left off your list of 6 potential Votto suitors. I would think they will be very involved in courting him, post-Zito and especially if Lincecum leaves in 2 years. Not to mention the need for a major bat. Thoughts?

David Schoenfield

  (1:30 PM)

Yes, I should have included them. The article was getting a bit long, however! I do wonder if Belt still ends up first base in the future, and with Lincecum and Cain up in the air, it's hard to project what kind of money the Giants will have in a couple years.

Jason (St Louis)

Regardless if Votto stays or goes we can all agree he won't be getting traded in the next two years, correct? I'm just trying to head off the fans of teams that need a 1b (Rangers) from calling for him to be moved since the Reds can't afford him.

David Schoenfield

  (1:31 PM)

I think the smart move is to keep him, ala the Brewers with Prince last season. When you have one of the best players in baseball and a potentially good team around him, you have to go for it, no?

Jeremy (DC)

Hey David, as a Nats fan I was always a little conflicted about spending a truckload of money on Prince -- I should be happy we didn't sign him so we have the money to get a decent CF, right?

David Schoenfield

  (1:33 PM)

You have Jayson Werth! In all seriousness, I think the best move for the Nats over the next few years would be moving Morse to 1B (he's pretty rough in left), Werth to LF with Harper in RF and finding a CF.

John (Baltimore)

Does Matusz turn it around this year or is he a bust?

David Schoenfield

  (1:34 PM)

No idea. I know he's said his velocity was down after returning, but I still wonder if he was pitching through an injury. Or maybe he just went through what Halladay did as a young pitcher. Halladay had to go all the way back to Class A to rediscover his mechanics.

Gene (West Palm Beach)

Can David Price regain his ace status? He had a pretty mediocre year last season.

David Schoenfield

  (1:35 PM)

Regain? He was terrific last year. His K and BB rates were both better than 2010. He's still a stud. Ignore the W-L record.

Anthony (MD)

FIRE DAN DUQUETTE! The guy is out of his element, has been out of the game too long, and has done nothing to make Orioles fans optimistic for the future in his short tenure. I'm not one to make irrational declarations months into a hire, but this guy has done absolutely nothing to give Orioles fans any confidence that he has ny idea what he's doing. Going to buy a Nats hat this afternoon...

Chris (NJ)

Why are there no mediocre expectations on Cespedes? Everyone seems to think he will either be a star or a bust. There is the possibility that he turns out to be just a MLB regular. No more no less. But everyone either wants him to bomb or become a star. It's just silly.

David Schoenfield

  (1:38 PM)

Agreed. Seems a bit odd that nobody wants to say when there are numerous example of hyped prospects who turned into mediocre players (Delmon Young, Jason Kubel, Casey Kotchman, etc.) I know he has the "tools" package but tools players aren't all boom or bust.

John (Cincinnati, Oh)

Breakout player from the NL Central in 2012 will be _____________?

David Schoenfield

  (1:39 PM)

Let's hear it from the readers. Two names I like: Homer Bailey (can't believe it, but I'm finally coming around) and Alex Presley.

JWR (USA)

Give us a "challenge trade" that you would like to see?

David Schoenfield

  (1:40 PM)

Let's hear some ideas from the chatters ...

Milton (Conway, SC)

Why isnt' Tommy John in the HOF?

David Schoenfield

  (1:40 PM)

Lots of innings, but viewed more as a longevity guy than one with with a great peak value.

Alex (KC)

What do the Pirates do with Starling Marte? He looks ready to play on the big club, but he's blocked by easily their best player in McCutcheon. An OF of Tabata, McCutch, Marte would be amazing defensively, but those three collectively lack the power you generally want from the OF. Does McCutch (the most power and best player of the three) move the LF to make room for Marte as soon as this season?

David Schoenfield

  (1:42 PM)

No way McCutchen moves from center field. Marte had 100 K's and 22 BBs in Double-A, so I think more time in the minors will do him good. Give Tabata and Presley a chance in 2012 and then evaluate for 2013.

Matt (DC)

Challenge trade: Ryan Zimmerman for Jacoby Ellsbury.

Tyler (WI)

Challenge trade Harper for Trout

Jason (St Louis)

How about Adam Jones for Shelby Miller, Zack Cox and Jon Jay? Who says no?

David Schoenfield

  (1:43 PM)

I think the Cardinals do. I'm on record as thinking Jones is overrated. Jay is OK and Miller's potential isn't worth the upgrade from Jay to Jones.

Scrapper (ILL)

Having just read your position by position breakdown in the NL Central, who was the hardest player for you to rate?

David Schoenfield

  (1:46 PM)

Well, Wainwright. Hard to know what to do with him. Axford/Madson/Hanrahan were tough to rank since all three are very good. Maybe a guy like Drew Stubbs. Very good in 2010. Not so good in 2001. Talk about tools. There's a chance he could cut down on the K's be solid again or a chance Dusty gets sick of him and he's on the bench by June. I took the upside.

Brian C. (NYC)

How about Betances for Strasburg?

David Schoenfield

  (1:46 PM)

I hope that's a joke.

Matt (DC)

Zimmerman for Ellsbury satisfies BOTH teams dire needs, who says no to that?

David Schoenfield

  (1:47 PM)

Yep, very interesting. Would there be concerns about Zimmerman's health?

John (Cincinnati, Oh)

Travis Snider for Matt Laporta

Al (CA)

A fan-made trade suggestion? OK. I want to trade five of my team's crappy players for one of another team's good players. Whaddya think?

David Schoenfield

  (1:47 PM)

Perfect!

Chuck (Durango, Co)

Homer Bailey gave up more than a hit/inning last year. I get that his control has improved, but if he simply gets hit, it doesn't help much.

David Schoenfield

  (1:49 PM)

Right, but isn't throwing more strikes step one? Not saying he's a guarantee, but the improvements are good indication that more may come.

Chet (LA)

Challenge trade: Peter Bourjos for Danny Espnioza?

David Schoenfield

  (1:49 PM)

Angels have Kendrick for 2B (and Aybar for SS), so not sure that really does much for them. But similar talents/value, yes.

RJ (MT)

Who's a better candidate to be a .300 30 100 15 guy within 2yrs? Hosmer or Heyward

David Schoenfield

  (1:51 PM)

Hmm ... I'll go Heyward. A little better strike-zone discipline right now.

Dale (KY)

Garza for Shelby Miller/Martinez?

Greg (LA)

challenge trade: Banuelos, Phelps and Mason Williams for McCutchen.

Nickey (Toronto)

Brandon Morrow and Henderson Alvarez for David Wright, and move right to first base?

David Schoenfield

  (1:52 PM)

I think the Jays need the arms more than the bat right now

Arnie (Louisville)

Any report on the measures Adam Dunn has taken to improve himself after the dismal season he had last year?

David Schoenfield

  (1:52 PM)

He did hit this offseason for the first time in his career

Matt (DC)

None, and assume Zimmerman and Ellsbury extend with their new teams.

Jon KK (Elkhart, Ind.)

If, hypothetically, Cespedes was in LF or CF for the Cubs, where would you place him in your NL Central rankings? The third spot either place?

David Schoenfield

  (1:54 PM)

Good question ... I guess third in LF (behind Braun/Holliday) and maybe second in CF (behind McCutchen, just ahead of Stubbs). Tough one.

Chris (Boston)

Ryan Howard for Vernon Wells

Nickey (Toronto)

Okay: How about Adam Lind for Vance Worley? The Phillies can't honestly expect Jim Thome to be their regular first baseman.

David Schoenfield

  (1:55 PM)

Except ... Adam Lind kind of stinks. .291 OBP last two years.

Chris (Fairview Heights)

You seem very high on the Reds and Brewers and very low on the Cards. I realize the Cardinals are getting older but age doesnt necessarily mean bad. Cards dont have Franklin blowing 22 saves and Theriot playing defense at shortstop this year and Adam for a full year.

David Schoenfield

  (1:57 PM)

Don't read too much into those final rankings. But I could counteract your list by saying Berkman won't be as good, Furcal is a big injury risk, Lohse had his career year, Carpenter and Garcia threw a lot of innings, Yadi had his best year ever, La Russa is gone and Freese has been injury-prone.

Trey (Boston)

No way trade Ellsbury for Zimmerman. I'd rather see Boston wait on Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, and Cecchini. Trading for Zimmerman would get us what? 5-10 more games at best at 3B over Youkilis? No thanks.

Jason (St Louis)

Shelby Miller for Joes Bats.

David Schoenfield

  (1:58 PM)

Umm ...

Mark (St. Louis)

Keep dreaming Dale

Scott (Denver)

With Allen Craig backing up Berkman and/or Beltran, doesn't that somewhat limit the injury risk for the Cards?

David Schoenfield

  (1:58 PM)

Yes, although he's out one or two months after knee surgery, I believe.

Franklin (Santa Cruz)

Challenge trade: Ryan Zimmerman for Mark Trumbo & Peter Bourjos.

David Schoenfield

  (1:59 PM)

Interesting ... although I'm not a big Trumbo fan (low OBP). OK ... have to run to a meeting. Thanks for reading the blog and we'll see you next week!