Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:01 AM)

Good morning everyone! Spring training is right around the corner, and I don't know about you, but I can't wait. Got a question? Well, you've come to the right place to get it answered. Let's get started...

Steve (DC)

Starlin Castro: Over or under 15 homers? Jumped from 3 to 10 last year...

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:03 AM)

Nice choice of over/under, I think 15 is a fairly realistic expectation, and I don't feel especially strongly on one side or the other. Gut says "under," if only because he's not quite the age where I tend to expect those significant breakthroughs, but the only thing to read into that is just that I don't think the huge power surge is imminent. I still like the guy an awful lot as a fantasy option.

Dave (milwaukee)

If braun is found not guilty of PEDs where would his draft ranking move to?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:04 AM)

I'm in the process of writing up a Ryan Braun analysis column in the event he does get that 50-game suspension, so keep a look out for that if a ruling is announced. I ranked Ryan Braun my No. 1 player overall before this news ever broke. I see no reason to change my mind, and certainly, everyone should have him in the top three players overall at the bare minimum.

Nate (Oregon)

You have Logan Morrison #160 overall in your rankings. I want to believe that he is a top 25 OF. what do you think his upside is this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:05 AM)

Realistically speaking I think he could bat in the ballpark of .280 with 20-homer power. Yes, there is upside from those numbers. If I'm to throw the counterargument at you, it's that it's a little unclear at this stage whether batting average or power is going to be his true, long-term strength. At the time of his debut, I thought batting average. Now I'm not so sure.

Vern (Winnipeg, Canada)

Can you convince me as to why M. Bumgarner is not a better pitcher than Y. Gallardo?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:07 AM)

Why he is not? Any case for Yovani Gallardo is formulated upon the substantial improvements in command he made last season, which increases his ability to A) work deeper into games and B) hold up over the six-month season, which he did last year. Gallardo's improvements aren't really that far a cry from what Clayton Kershaw did in 2010, and we know what Kershaw did last year to follow it up. (No, not saying Gallardo = Kershaw, it's designed to show what those gains can do for a pitcher.)

Marc (Minneapolis)

Do you think it takes a long time (waiting for V-mart to return) for Miggy to earn 3B eligibility?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:09 AM)

I think that we are going to know the answer to this for absolute certain before the majority of drafts. Either the Tigers are going to show us they clearly believe in the experiment -- and at this stage I call it just that -- or the experiment is going to go so poorly during the spring that they'll bail on it by mid-March and convince either Miggy or Prince to move to DH.So, no, I don't think it will take long, more than two weeks I mean, so long as the Tigers are serious.

Rob (Philly)

Any concerns about Eric Hosmer going through a sophomore slump? I can't win with 15 HR out of my 1B spot.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:10 AM)

No, if there was any 2011 rookie whose skills I firmly believe translate into almost certain greater things in Year No. 2, Eric Hosmer would be my guy.

Nash (MPLS)

See a rebound for Rasmus? or just leave him be?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:11 AM)

With all that talent, sure, he could. But he has a lot of work to do to get there. Struggles with breaking pitches, tends to have issues when he falls behind in the count. Those are bothersome traits and not things easily fixed overnight. Let's say the spring will tell us a lot, and if it's a positive one, I'd be more optimistic than where I ranked him.

Brian (North Dakota)

Desmond Jennings...Top 15 Outfielder??

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:13 AM)

I believe in Jennings. Yeah, perhaps even to that level. That's his upside for 2011, for sure. Players with his patient approach at the plate, his speed and his power potential tend to "get there" more quickly than prospects who lack that combination.

Andrew (Seattle)

Happy Friday Tristan! Can you tell us a little about how the player projections are decided? Some of them seem really far out there when compared to past performances. Jim Johnson with 38 saves???

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:15 AM)

The general rule of thumb with projections is that they're based upon the player's track record of past three seasons, minors included, and there's a "regression" calculator to account for things like lucky bounces and ballparks.Saves are based upon the team's win potential and its history in that specific category as a team, not the individual, and if we felt that a specific guy was going to emerge as the No. 1 option, we tended to hand all the saves to him. I'll go back and examine Johnson -- 38 is a bit much for my tastes but I do like him a lot -- but that's probably where it's coming from.

Dave (NH)

Updated closer rankings--Street vs. Perez? Latest on CHW closer situation--Thornton or Reed?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:17 AM)

I'll take Huston Street, if only because I don't like what has happened with Chris Perez's strikeout rate and it's difficult to bet against the closer at Petco Park.As for the White Sox, Addison Reed is in danger of overhype; at his experience level I could see him being forced to earn the job with solid work in a setup capacity for a significant chunk of the early part of the year. I'd draft under the assumption that Matt Thornton is the guy initially and maybe for two months, but that Reed could have the gig for the final four.

Jim (MPLS)

I am in a keeper league...will you be giving us a list of the best keepers this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:18 AM)

Yes. I have promised this and fulfill that promise I shall. But you must be patient; I do not rush that list just to get it out there, I take the time necessary to make it the right list. When I have a target date I'll say so.

MIKE (LA,CA)

Are you buying a Matusz rebound this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:19 AM)

Yes, if only because it's statistically impossible for him to be worse; if he was he wouldn't be afforded the necessary starts to be statistically worse. He was that bad.If what you're asking is, back to his former top-prospect self, I'm leaning no, and need to be convinced in a serious way in March. I firmly believed there was something wrong with him, looking at his 2011 stats. Not sure he's beyond that.

Todd (Cleveland)

Have you heard any dates on when "The Decision" Braun style will be announced?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:20 AM)

Nope. There was a post on one of the Milwaukee papers by one of their beat reporters saying that it usually takes 25 days from the appeal, so we're about at that deadline, but that because it's not in-season that could always be extended.

Sean (Los Angeles)

Early chat today!.. Hey, what do you feel is the best way to limit streaming in a league?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:21 AM)

Expand the league. The closer you get to a shallow mixed league the greater the value of the streamer strategy. I don't endorse innings, transactions or games caps, and I think the best way to counteract this is to make people work; make them scout deeper into the pitching pool by forcing a larger number of active weekly/daily arms. Think AL- or NL-only leagues, for instance.

Ben (Toronto)

Karabell speculated on Baseball Today that Cordero will end up closing in Toronto. It's Santos, right?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

I know exactly where Eric was coming from; "closer experience" tempts baseball managers. As weak an argument as that is, it's entirely valid.Not that I like Francisco Cordero at all; I'm investing in Sergio Santos today because I trust skills, and Cordero looks like a regression candidate in a serious way to me, but that's a battle that bears close attention this spring.

Tom (Chicago)

Final keeper spot..Alex Gordon or Desmond Jennings?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:23 AM)

I'd ask if there's someone else you could shed to keep both, but I'd go Gordon. A little more safety in the big three AVG-HR-RBI categories, especially in the short term.

LittleRon (WV)

What is your take on closer situation for the Dodgers?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:24 AM)

On skills I say it's Kenley Jansen and not terribly close; on experience Javy Guerra has the edge. I completely see that being a case where Guerra has it on Opening Day, but Jansen emerges by mid-May. Draft accordingly today, but be prepared to adjust as necessary in the coming weeks.

David (DC)

what SP would you target with Arod? Thanks. Enjoy the weekend!

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:26 AM)

Jeez, a ton of 'em. Maybe my entire top 20. I think we've seen the end of Alex Rodriguez's guaranteed 30-100 seasons. Decline phase of his career and there's a downside for once.I'll toss you a name I'd first attempt with a realistic chance of getting it done: Zack Greinke.

Rob (Philly)

Carlos Santana or Nelson Cruz: who puts up the best numbers this year...forget position eligibility.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:27 AM)

Taking out the positions I would probably pick Cruz by a small margin, but I'm not sure why you're excluding the important position eligibility factor. I have Santana ranked higher for a reason, and that's a big part of the reason. (Age/durability being the other.)

Jamie (Orlando)

But a case can be made for Bumgarner no? Take out the first month and that one horrible game (8 ER in 0.1 inns), and you have a top 5 pitcher, no?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:29 AM)

Absolutely. I spend my winters taking notes on every significant player in fantasy baseball and I'll share mine on Madison Bumgarner, which relates to why his increased strikeout rate is legit: "Slider became his 'out' pitch, 85 of his 191 K's were on sliders and he threw it nearly 40% of the time with two strikes. It's swing-and-miss good."

Daniel (Bronx)

Who is going to be this year's Kershaw?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:32 AM)

Daniel, to be honest with you, I'm not sure what "this year's Kershaw" means. I mean, I "get it," but making direct comparisons to past statistical performances is dangerous.From a "top-of-the-Player-Rater-among-lower-tiers" angle, I think it's Zack Greinke.From a "he's-young-and-it's-his-time-to-become-an-ace," it might be Madison Bumgarner. Or one of the Nationals righties.Both of those demonstrate why you could approach that comparison differently.

The Whaler (Erie, PA)

Zach Britton going to be able to weather the AL East and have a solid season or is it too soon to expect anything out of him in that brutal division?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

Britton is in that "pound it into the ground, believe in his defense type," like a Justin Masterson or Tim Hudson, so understand that when we discuss his ceiling, it's not that of an elite fantasy starter. I can't see that happening.But I do like Britton as a 2012 value. I'll forgive him the poor rookie-year second half because the Orioles had begun tinkering with his routine to cap his innings, and it showed by what it did to his sinker (his most critical pitch). I think the experience, and the winter's rest, were good for him. No one might want him; I'd happily draft him late on a whim.

Brian (NY)

Will Zimmerman have an innings limit this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:34 AM)

I haven't heard a specific number, but as he threw 161 1/3 last year, I'm thinking there's no reason to think it'll be beneath 185-190. Perhaps he'll have no limit.

Nick (NY)

Tristan, I've never done a prospect draft before and I have the last pick in a super deep prospect draft (about 150 players taken). What in the world should I be looking for with that pick?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Well, I'm assuming this means the top 150 prospects are already taken, meaning it's a lot like my 30-team, dynasty sim league. I usually go for the strongest combination of elite skills and proximity to majors; don't take "ho-hum" guys at that level unless your league's rules make it compelling to do so. I almost always spend my prospect roster spots on the real blue-chippers, or the guys who with some luck could turn into that.

Ron (NY)

expectations for stanton?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:36 AM)

Could hit 50 homers. Seriously. If I was going to pick anyone in baseball who could, it'd be him in the NL, Jose Bautista in the AL. The only reason I'd even say I'm projecting 35-40 -- still perhaps the NL leading total -- is that we don't yet know how the new ballpark will play.

Phil (Ottawa)

What do you expect from the KC starters? Normally they are avioded because of lack of win potential.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:37 AM)

AL-only picks, probably not a single one will have regular place in any mixed-league lineup. I think we might see a decent step forward from Luke Hochevar, however, if that helps. If anyone could get into the mixed discussion, he'd be my pick.

Scott (Chicago)

ESPN's projections for Carlos Santana seem relatively conservative. What does his upside look like?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:38 AM)

Carlos Santana's 2012 upside is Mike Napoli's 2011.

Daniel (NY)

Your rankings suggest that you don't expect a big bounce back from Adam Wainwright.... why not

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:40 AM)

He's a command/breaking pitches pitcher, someone who relies on his curveball a great deal. And when I look at pitchers fresh off Tommy John surgery -- I mean guys who have zero stats since going under the knife -- I'm going to question the guys who need their command to be at that level in order to succeed. I don't hate Wainwright, but I offer this caution: His drafting owners must be patient. It might be smartest to let someone else draft him, then when he's a little underwhelming around Memorial Day, that's the time to pounce on a buy-low trade.

Blinky (Eastern Europe)

Santana's upside is Napoli's 2011? Santana outscored Napoli last year in my points league? Plus he should get about 150 more at bats for CLE?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:42 AM)

This is true. Quite true. Though a lot of the reason for that was Santana's playing time, bolstered by his getting time in at first base, while the Rangers' inexplicable decision to make Napoli a part-timer early last year suppressed his points total.For the record, I have Santana my No. 1 catcher in a points league. Upside is maybe 100 points more than he had in 2011 in that format.

Brian (NY)

If Burnett goes to the NL do you think he becomes a viable fantasy SP ala Vazquez?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:43 AM)

Let me preface this by saying it's completely a gut instinct, and in no way do I feel terribly confident in the decision: Somehow I feel like A.J. Burnett in the National League in a low-pressure environment might actually crack the mixed-league radar. Would anyone really be shocked if he has an ERA just a tick beneath four if he was dealt to the Pirates?

Allen (Halifax)

DeAza, does he play everyday and hit at top of that order?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:47 AM)

A concern for Alejandro De Aza is the platoon split; he's a candidate to be stuck in a straight split, albeit on the stronger side. I do like him as an AL-only value, in the way you have described, but he might not make much of an impact in mixed.

paul (NY)

You seem to love Stanto/n/bautista..... is he a guy that you MUST have?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:49 AM)

I try to never declare anybody a must-have, because it sets you up to potentially overspend to the point where you're paying for the guy's absolute ceiling statistically, but I would say that, yes, I am targeting Mike Stanton as one of my top players overall. I did rank him 33rd, but if someone else wants to spend a top-15 pick overall on him, I say be my guest.

Peter (Irvington)

Daniel Hudson becomes a top 15 fantasy pitcher this year. Thoughts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

Has the potential to do so, yes, might have been overshadowed by Ian Kennedy's 2011. I see Hudson as a good value in 2012 drafts.

MIKE (LA,CA)

Does the weak Tigers defense affect Fister's value? The guy thrives on ground balls.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:50 AM)

Yes. Can't say it more succinctly.

Ted (Florida)

Do you agree with ESPN's ranking of Matt Moore being at #19?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

No, but to be fair, I ranked Moore my No. 24 starting pitcher, so it's not like we're worlds off. It's merely that every spot higher you go, the more you're paying for his maximum expectation.

Brian (NY)

Are you as high as Karabell is on Montero and Lawrie this season?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:51 AM)

Yes, at least to the extent Eric has shared with me his opinion on them. They're "buys" in my book is the point.

Mike (NY)

Who's the player you will reach farthest for in drafts this year

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:53 AM)

The first thought that popped into my head was that we as a group at the summit were absurdly low on Desmond Jennings. So he might be it.

JB (NY)

For the record, Napoli should be an every day player between C/1B/DH. He shouldn't get substantially more or less at bats than the Supernatural.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:54 AM)

Agreed. Wasn't what was asked in that previous question, but I agree on the point.

Kevin (Atlanta)

What is kung fu panda's upside?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:55 AM)

I think where we ranked and projected him, frankly. Or maybe a round's value higher. I don't think he's an MVP candidate in the making and, really, that's about the only next step he could make.

Jason (Chicago)

Betancourt will be this year's Kimbrell. Thoughts?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:56 AM)

Yuniesky Betancourt?! Wow, that's crazy, Jason.Kidding, kidding. I knew you meant Rafael. I think Kenley Jansen is this year's Craig Kimbrel; comparisons are legitimate for so many reasons (K rate, role questions, stand out first). Can't dispute Rafael Betancourt being a surprisingly good closer, in the top 10, though. I believe.

Jason (Pittsburgh)

Reading a lot of good things on Heyward....what do you see out of him this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:57 AM)

More than any other player I want to believe in Jason Heyward, but I out-and-out refuse to do so until I see with my own eyes that he's a healthy fella with an improved swing. I plan to watch at least 10 games of his just to formulate my final opinion, would top any "watch list" of mine. And I think, at least today I do, that he's boom or bust, will either be a breakout star or the bust he was in 2011. No in-between.

Alley (Scotchtown, NS)

Any significant differences in your strategies when you do a live draft as opposed to online?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (11:58 AM)

No, other than know your competition. As in, if you know that there are autodrafters in there, it helps, because you know when a certain player is going to go off the board.

Chase Utley (Philly)

Put a fork in me?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:00 PM)

No, because you are not "done," though you've already shown us that you have taken one of the larger steps of your career in that direction. "Declining" does not equal "done," just please keep that in mind.

Mitch (Dallas)

Justin Upton will be the top fantasy outfielder after this year.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:01 PM)

Haha, Mitch, did you have the summit room bugged? That was the case I laid out that day. Though this number sounds low, consider how probabilities work ... I say there's a good 25-30% chance that Upton is the No. 1 outfielder on our 2012 Player Rater.

Eddie Mush (Baltimore)

Does Doumit get enough ABs for the twins this year to contribute to a Roto AL only team?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

I'm warming to Ryan Doumit, know him extremely well because I've owned him for years in the sim league I referenced earlier. I say yes, absolutely, the only worry I have that being a poor ballpark for power.

BUZZER BEATER! ((Sent via rotary AT)

Tristan - this question ties the whole chat together! Final Keeper decision - Hosmer, Jennings or Kung Fu Panda? Already keeping Tulo, Votto, Cargo & Stanton in a 12-Team H2H no-restriction keeper format.

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:02 PM)

Joey Votto's presence has me going Desmond Jennings, remembering the long-term lack of restriction.

Vlad Musone (Oliveville)

Angles question. Will Bourjous have a short leash if he starts out cold? Or will they let him run wiht the job and continue to develop?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:03 PM)

Peter Bourjos is one of the most underrated players in the game, and it's because of his defense. The Angels cannot afford to remove his glove from the lineup, so I'm a firm believer he's got a long leash.

Eric (Indy)

Is this year Wieters jumps into the top 3 C's and lives up to potential?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:04 PM)

Eric also appears to have bugged the summit room. Said the same for Matt Wieters, absolutely I could see that. Rankings and "bold predictions" cannot be treated as one and the same: My "bold prediction" is that Matt Wieters has a better season than Brian McCann.

Drew (Hudson Valley, NY)

Who is a pitcher you'll be reaching for this year?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

Derek Holland.

Sam (Montauk)

More likely to jack 40 homers this year Morse or Bruce?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:05 PM)

Jay Bruce. Ballpark, simple as that.

Chicken Parmesean (Fridge)

Put a fork in me?

Tristan H. Cockcroft

  (12:06 PM)

Absolutely. Sadly, no chicken parm in my fridge today, though I think I should now make the trek to find some. I'm developing a craving.Thanks for all your questions, and sorry if I couldn't get to yours. Take care everyone, and have a great weekend!