Joe Lunardi

  (4:01 PM)

Happy President's Day! To whom shall we sing, "Hail to the Chief?"

Jamie (PA)

Do you think Pitt will get in the NCAA Tournament

Joe Lunardi

  (4:03 PM)

Hard to think so at this point, Jamie. The Panthers are 4-11 in the Big East, just got swept on the season by South Florida and will be hard-pressed to even win two of their last three games. Time to turn the page on Pitt, I'm afraid.

Darren Bolick (Charlotte, NC)

Joe - you think way too much of MSU - while I think they are a top 10 team - they lost to both Duke and UNC this year - put them in the ACC and see where they finish. UNC and/or Duke should be in position for a #1 seed.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:05 PM)

Correct, Darren. Michigan State lost to both ACC powers over four months ago. Since then the Spartans have collected more RPI Top 25 than Duke and Carolina combined. I think the real question is this: Would Duke or UNC win this year's Big Ten?

Matthew (Syracuse)

If Uconn losses to Villanova tonight would they be out of the NCAA tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:06 PM)

Have been looking at that one most of the day, Matthew. It may not be tonight that knocks them out, but UConn could be counting the days it remains in the bracket. And, remember, if they miss this year it will be an enforced two-year NCAA absence for the Huskies. Hard to believe, really.

Jordan (Durham)

If Northwestern loses to both Michigan and Ohio State at home, are they still in?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:07 PM)

No.

Chris (Newtown, Pa)

Hey Joe I just wanted to know do you think it will take 12 big east wins and 1 win the Big East conference tournament to make the NCAA Tournament for South Florida what do you think?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:09 PM)

It's going to take at least one win -- somewhere, anywhere -- over a sure NCAA team. It's quality, not quantity that should matter for USF at this point.

Nick (Charlotte)

Joe, there is absolutely NO WAY that Michigan St is a 1 over Carolina. Not only did Carolina beat the Spartans but all of Carolina's losses came from teams that are seeded 5 or better in your bracket. Michigan St however lost to bubble team Northwestern and Illinois who you predict will only be in the NIT. Am I missing something here?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:11 PM)

I respectfully disagree. Michigan State is 7-3 vs. RPI Top 25 and Carolina is 2-4. End of discussion.

jeff (chicago)

Hi Joe my question is do you think that the day will come where the best team is not questioned. What i mean is Kentucky is almost unanimously identified as the best team in the country but for weeks they have had to justify why they are overall #1 in the tournament and not Syracuse.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:13 PM)

I'm probably as responsible for this as anyone, Jeff, as most national folks have UK at No. 1 overall while I am among the minority of hold outs. It just seems to me that people are forgetting the one Syracuse loss came without Fab Melo. If he plays and the Orange are undefeated, are we even having the conversation? The committee heavily weights player absences for team selection, why not seeding?

Brad (Cincinnati)

I can see it now. 1st Round Matchup....#13 Cincinnati vs #13 Xavier 60 miles North up I75 in Dayton! Would the men behind closed doors allow this to happen if they were a few of the last teams in?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:13 PM)

Won't happen and, by rule, pretty much can't happen. One or both schools in Dayton, however, is a real possibility.

Conor (Cuse)

Joe - In your previous bracket you mentioned that Syracuse is the top seed but you believe Kentucky will eventually overcome them for that top spot. Just curious what you're reasoning was behind that. Do you feel UK's schedule is tougher here on out and will give them the edge should both teams win out? Or is it that you think SU will lose a game or two or that Kentucky won't?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:14 PM)

The latter, Conor.

David (Hawk Hill)

If Saint Joseph's finishes out their A-10 schedule 3-0, are they in? or would they have work to do still? and if they finish 2-1 with the loss to Temple, what will they have to do to get in? Keep up the good work, Joe! Go Hawks!

Joe Lunardi

  (4:14 PM)

Beating Temple is essential for the Hawks, either this weekend or at the Atlantic 10 tournament.

Matt (Champaign)

Joe, to say Illinois is hurting is the understatement of the season, has it come to the point where winning the BTT is their only realistic way in?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:15 PM)

Sure looks that way, Matt, although I suppose the right path to the final and a shortage of upsets elsewhere could put the Illini back in the conversation. A lightening bolt to the eye might be more likely at this point.

AJ (UK`)

What do thinking of Washingtons chances of a sweet 16 apperance with such a young team. they seem to be getting it together late.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:16 PM)

Let's get in the tournament first, A.J., though I don't blame you for thinking about a reprise of 2010.

Sean (Oxford, Ohio)

I admit it's hard for me to understand why you've placed Michigan St. on the top line ahead of Duke. Is it due to the perception that MSU is as Jay Bilas has said 'red hot' and that Duke has had to rally to notch wins of late? I'm not a Duke fan but I feel as though there is often hesitation when it comes to putting to Duke in a slot for a number one seed ahead of other blue-blood programs.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:17 PM)

My prior answers about Michigan State-Carolina apply to Duke, as well. Plus, you're talking the outright leader of the top conference vs. two teams in a three-way tie atop an admittedly "down" ACC. It's really not close, at least today.

Leon (Spokane)

If Gonzaga runs the table for the rest of the season, and wins the wcc tourney, what seed do you think the zags can get, and how far do you see them going in the ncaa tourney.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:18 PM)

Always hard to answer the "how far" question without seeing actual bracket match ups. And I think a No. 5 seed is about Gonzaga's ceiling at this point.

Ryan (Eugene)

Joe, at this point, what separates Arizona from Oregon and Colorado for that third spot in the Pac-12? Especially since Oregon is tied with the Wildcats in conference and beat UA in Tuscon.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:19 PM)

Better schedule and road competence for Arizona, Ryan, but it's extremely close.

Chip (Missouri)

If SLU wins the rest of their regular season games, what do they need to in the conference tournament to get an at-large bid?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:19 PM)

Show up.

Joe Lunardi Ghost (Joes mind)

Joe,Xavier was one of our last 4 out on Friday. They beat a mediocre Dayton team at home barely and skip ahead of all the last 4 teams in. Why?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:20 PM)

They still have some pretty good wins. And the bubble is B-A-D.

Walter (Dayton, OH)

Joe, THX so much for the fantastic job you do this time of season every year! RE: The four play-in games this March, please explain on your Bracketology why the 2 top overall #1 seeds (currently 'Cuse & UK) both don't get matched to the #64

Joe Lunardi

  (4:22 PM)

Get this question every year. One 16-seed winner must go to a Thursday site (as it plays Tuesday in Dayton) and the other to a Friday site (as it plays Wednesday in Dayton). With 'Cuse and UK both seemingly locked into Thursday sites, Pittsburgh and Louisville respectively, only one can be paired with a Dayton winner. Make sense?

Mason (Monroe, LA) [via mobile]

How do you feel about automatic bids? Should they be eliminated? Are they fair for most teams?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:23 PM)

All due respect to my colleagues, but the elimination of automatic bids is a terrible idea that would completely alter the complexion of the sport. One can argue how conferences award such bids, but not their importance to the national landscape.

Mason (Monroe, LA) [via mobile]

How solid are the number one seeds at this point? In other words, how likely is it that some other teams outside these four could take one of the spots? And what would it take for each of these four teams to drop to a lower seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:23 PM)

Only Syracuse and Kentucky are solid, Mason, which is a bit unusual this late in the year.

Justin (Kentucky) [via mobile]

What will it take for the Wildcats to knock Syracuse off the top line?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:23 PM)

Unmarked bills to my home address from Lexington.

Mike (Pittsburgh)

How high do you see Wichita State seeded if they win the MVC Tourney ?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:24 PM)

WOuld not be "shocked" to see the Shockers as a No. 4 seed.

Joe (St. Louis)

Joe, can you please touch on the senario if Kansas beat Missouri on Saturday?? Who gets seeded where? And vice versa

Joe Lunardi

  (4:25 PM)

Great question, Joe. One is the likely No. 1 seed in the Midwest (St. Louis) and the other a No. 2 seed elsewhere. If KU wins on Saturday, the committee may make an either/or scenario for a possible rubber game in the Big 12 tournament.

Brooks (Ann Arbor)

If Michigan wins out and gets two wins in the Big Ten Tourney, what seed would they most likely be?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:25 PM)

Probably a No. 4 seed, Brooks, with a chance at No. 3.

Aaron (Richmond, VA)

Is there any chance George Mason, Drexel, and VCU all make it into the tourney?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:26 PM)

No.

Phil (CA)

Did Murray St. move up to a solid 4 seed after the dismantling they put on St. Mary's over the weekend. Sure would eaze the pain of that beating to know they were going to keep climbing the seed charts

Joe Lunardi

  (4:26 PM)

No (the answer to the CAA question).

Joe Lunardi

  (4:27 PM)

As for Murray, today's No. 6 seed is close to their ceiling I think.

Venoy Overton (Seattle)

Can the PAC-12 get 4 bids?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:27 PM)

Three is a long shot.

Justin (Durand)

Joe...Why are Seton Hall and WVU considered ahead of USF? USF beat Seton Hall, and WVU has a similar record to USF. Also, if Anthony Collins had been healthy all year USF's non conference record would be much better. To me, if USF wins 2 of their last 4 they have to be in.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:28 PM)

South Florida is going to create considerable debate. My question to you, Justin, is this: Which tournament teams did USF lose to because of player absence(s)? I'm not sure the answer works in their favor.

Judson (Salt Lake City)

St. Mary's Loss seems to have dampened National perspective on the WCC. SF over the Zags, AF over SDSU. But the numbers say that LMU has better RPI top 50 wins and has played a much harder SOS than Long Beach State, who are darlings for losing to 4 or 5 historic programs. Can the WCC put 4 teams in? Should the East Coast recalibrate their perspective on the Mtn West and WCC?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:30 PM)

Will agree that LMU is under-the-radar a bit. Probably not an at-large, but worth of a closer look with their three good wins. They also have the worst losses of the group and, as such, four WCC bids are not realistic.

Ross (Raleigh)

While obviously considering many other factors, would a 3-1 finish followed by no one and done at the ACC get Miami in? Hoping MD isn't a trap with them coming off that awful 2nd half against UVA

Joe Lunardi

  (4:30 PM)

More than likely, yes, Miami would be in with that scenario.

Nick (West Laffayete)

If purdue goes 2-2 over final four games is 19-12 (9-9) out of the big ten good enough to get in the dance?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:31 PM)

Could depend on who eliminates them in the Big Ten tourney, but I'd lean "yes" to Nick's scenario.

Kyle (Hatboro)

Joe, if Temple wins the A-10 tourney, what is the highest seed you see them getting? What is the ceiling for them in your opinion in March, can they make a realistic run at the Elite 8?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:32 PM)

I see Temple as a legitimate Sweet 16 team, but maybe not with a No. 4 seed. The committee hasn't been too kind to A-10 teams lately in terms of seeding. Still don't know why Richmond was a No. 12 last year (actually, I think I do, but it wouldn't be fair to report without confirmation).

Jake [via mobile]

Will Minnesota get in the tournament?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:32 PM)

No.

James (Lawrence)

Joe - Explain to me how in a bracket based off today's standings if no more games were played puts MSU above KU suddenly? Ultimately it doesn't matter as I think there will be a single 1 seed from the Big 10 and the Big 12 but am surprised how Michigan can bump up Michigan state based on your principles for making the bracket as of today.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:33 PM)

No (that's the Minnesota question).

Joe Lunardi

  (4:33 PM)

And I do NOT have Michigan State above Kentucky. My top seeds (in order) are Syracuse, Kentucky, Missouri and the Spartans.

doc ( syracuse ) [via mobile]

Does S.U. need to win out reg. Season + BE tournament to maintain its # 1 seed ?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:34 PM)

I don't think so, Doc.

Jorge (Berkeley, CA)

Senior Lunardi ~ If Cal goes 2-1 on the road to finish out Pac-12 play (with the loss either @CO or @Stanford), and then wins their first game in the conf. tourney, how safe are they?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:34 PM)

Very safe if they win the Pac-12 regular season.

Shawn (VA Beach)

Why so much love for the tired RPI. To me its just inaccurate. Bilas' index is much better. Dude is just scary smart. Also Ken Pomeroy's rankings are MUCH better than the RPI. Cmon Joe!

Joe Lunardi

  (4:35 PM)

All have merit, as they measure different things. The key is spotting (and properly evaluating) outliers. That's where you have to be "scary" smart.

Jason (Cincy)

You say Syracuse only lost because Fab Melo was out, so by using that flawed logic couldn't we say that UK only lost because Anthoy Davis was robbed of playing the first half against IU due to incompetent officiating?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:36 PM)

First, I didn't say Syracuse lost b/c Melo was out (just that the committee considers such things). And officiating is not a selection or seeding criteria. Does it really hurt that much to give Indiana a sliver of credit?

Joe (Cortland)

As a follow-up question to Conor's question, if Syracuse & Kentucky both run the table, who is #1 overall?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:37 PM)

Syracuse on my board, but the committee would follow the polls.

John (St Louis)

Would the Billikens still be on the right side of the bubble if they lose to Xavier?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:37 PM)

Yes.

Steve (Philadelphia)

Who do you have ahead in your S curve at the #5 seed, Temple or Wichita State? I would think Temple should be getting the higher spot based on beating them and having more top 50 rpi wins?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:38 PM)

Wichita is No. 18 and Temple is No. 20. Head-to-head is less important the longer the season goes.

Shawn (New Mexico)

Is the committee is changing the way that they consider bubble teams? The traditional thinking is that a low-seed at-large tourney invite is a reward for good regular season. But given the runs of several low-seeded teams in recent years, will the committee going to be looking for teams for more "upside" for those last few spots, and ignoring bad losses (such as VCU last year)?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:38 PM)

Wish I knew, Shawn. The committee's priorities are rarely a stationary target.

Joe (Kansas City MO)

What would have to happen for Mizzou to overtake 'Cuse for the overall number 2?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:40 PM)

Winning out for the Tigers, with Syracuse losing multiple times. It doesn't matter, though, if the goal is the Midwest Regional (St. Louis). The competition for that is Kansas and/or the Big Ten champion.

Austin (wisconsin)

what do you think of wisconsin? What seed is most likely for them in the tourney. Thanks

Joe Lunardi

  (4:41 PM)

Am pretty baffled by the Badgers, Austin, who've had such an anti-Wisconsin type of year. Will probably end up in the 5-7 seed range.

Derek (Connecticut)

Will Uconn make it?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:41 PM)

No.

Tom (Philadelphia)

I know it shouldn't, but will VCU's success last year (and controversial bid) affect any committee member's thoughts on the surging Drexel Dragons?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:41 PM)

No (the UConn question).

Joe Lunardi

  (4:42 PM)

Regarding Drexel, what happens in an individual committee member's head is confidential, so we really have no way to know.

John David (Preston)

Joe, you seem upset that your evaluations and seedings are being challenged.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:42 PM)

Got over that about 15 years ago....

Pnut (SouthWest Philly)

Joey ballgame, Drexel and the CAA comes to mind with this question. When looking at the SOS and the RPI, at what point do we start looking at high majors that refuse to play mid majors and other scheduling challenges? Drexel folks seem to claim nobody wanted to play them after they beat Louisville at Louisville (their first loss in that gym).

Joe Lunardi

  (4:43 PM)

Lots of talk every year on this topic, but little in the way of committee behavior that would suggest it matters much. Got to get scalps, period.

John (Luxembourg)

Joe, Middle Tennessee, Belmont, Iona, Drexel, and Long Beach State... If these teams run the table and lose in the conference championship games, what are their respective odds of gaining at-large bids?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:44 PM)

Long Beach has by far the best shot (probably better than 50/50). Varying degrees less than 50/50 for all the others on your list.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:44 PM)

OK, rapid fire time!

Liam (Ohio)

who is better LBSU or Xavier?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:45 PM)

Long Beach. Xavier is still "broken" in my view.

Dan (Ohio)

Appreciate the hard work Joe, obviously some disgruntled fans in here. Do you see Cincinnati as a legitimate Sweet 16 team threat if they draw a favorable 5-12 matchup with the way Sean Kilpatrick has been playing?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:45 PM)

No. Cincy is not much better than 50/50 to make the field at all.

Craig (Ames)

Iowa State's final seed?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:45 PM)

I see an 8/9 game for the Cyclones.

Bob Marley (Cary NC)

Can I derive a 'strength of conference' metric by summing the seeds of the teams from a conference. EG-BIG is 1/2/3/4/5=15 and BE is 1/3/3/4/6=17 and ACC is 2/2/4/8/12=38. Does this prove your conference strength comments earlier about UNC/Duke vs MSU?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:46 PM)

I make it a point never to argue with Bob Marley.

Chase (Birmingham)

Does Alabama make it?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:46 PM)

More than likely, yes.

chuck (mass)

who wins Syracuse or Uk. We all know that you are more favorable to Cuse. But UK is the better team I think you know that deep down

Joe Lunardi

  (4:47 PM)

Syracuse fans would find that hard to believe (the "more favorable" part, that is).

Don (Weirton, WV)

Likelihood of WVU making the tourney at season's end?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:47 PM)

Good to very good.

Mike (Cincinnati)

I know this is not your specialty but name your final four

Joe Lunardi

  (4:47 PM)

Not going there without a bracket in hand.

Brandon (Virginia)

La Salle, UMASS, Saint Joe's, and LMU; who makes it?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:47 PM)

Probably none. Saint Joseph's has the best odds.

Charlie K. (Houston, TX)

You have Drexel getting into the tournament (14 seed) based on winning the CAA. Is this because you believe Drexel is a better team than VCU is or is it based on numbers and the fact that Drexel will likely be a higher seed in the CAA tourney?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:48 PM)

Drexel holds the current league tiebreaker (over GMU). VCU is third in the standings and thus only an at-lathe candidate right now.

Joe (California)

Does Arizona get in?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:48 PM)

Really not sure, sorry.

aroznowski (USA)

Do you like or dislike the BCS?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:49 PM)

Dislike (a lot).

Joe Lunardi

  (4:49 PM)

OK, three more and "out" for me.

Jon H. (Miami)

Can you give me 4 dark horses for this year? Thanks, Joe

Joe Lunardi

  (4:50 PM)

Wichita State, New Mexico, Cal and Texas.

David (Fort Collins)

Joe, what does Colorado State have to do at this point to be in? If they won 2 of their next 3 against new mexico, san diego, and las vegas, would that be convincing enough for a bid?

Joe Lunardi

  (4:50 PM)

That would probably do it, David, yes.

Mike (NJ)

To have 9 teams in the tourney from the Big East and not include a team with 10 wins is a joke. The unbalanced schedule doesn't matter that much

Joe Lunardi

  (4:51 PM)

It has to matter, Mike, if you really think about it.

Joe Lunardi

  (4:51 PM)

Have a great week everybody!!