Chat with KC Joyner

Welcome to SportsNation! On Thursday, ESPN Insider KC Joyner, will be here to answer your NFL questions.
Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, uses game film to track, tabulate and analyze nearly every measurable statistic in an NFL game. He is a regular Insider contributor and has his own website at thefootballscientist.com.
Send your questions now and join KC Thursday at 4 p.m. ET!
More KC Joyner: Chats | @kcjoynertfs | NFL index
KC Joyner (4:00 PM)
Good afternoon! Let's talk some football!
Mac (CT)
With all the talk of Mike Wallace possibly leaving Pitt wouldn't it be something if he signed with Detrot making Calvin Johnson the second best reciever on his team.
KC Joyner (4:01 PM)
It would be very interesting to see him join the Lions roster. It would mean Calvin Johnson could get an up close look at how one goes about being a top-notch vertical WR.
Alex (Texas)
What are your thoughts on Ryan Tannehill? Do you think he has the skills to be a top tier QB in the NFL?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Tannehill has a lot of talent but it's raw talent. His game against Texas was a perfect example about how hit/miss he can be at the moment. He'll be a good QB down the road but not a guy a team can start from day 1 with much confidence.
Mikey (Lackawanna,NY)
KC, Do you think the Buffalo Bills should try and re-sign Stevie Johnson/Roscoe Parrish and Demetrius Bell?
KC Joyner (4:03 PM)
Depends on the price. Johnson seems to want No. 1 WR dollars and it just isn't clear that he is worth that kind of money.
JC (Atlanta)
KC, how good is Stanford Routt at CB? Is he an upgrade over B. Carr?
KC Joyner (4:04 PM)
Routt had a 6.1 YPA last year if memory serves correct. Carr's history is in the 7-8 YPA range, so Routt is at least as good, if not somewhat better.
Craig (Montclair)
Can Danny O'Brien be the next Russell Wilson?
KC Joyner (4:05 PM)
Absolutely. O'Brien in his first year looked like he was on the path to becoming one of the best QBs in the ACC. Heck, with Wisconsin's QB question marks this offseason, maybe they ought to consider signing O'Brien.
Aaron (PA)
Will Mike Wallace be a Pittsburgh Steeler for the 2012 season?
KC Joyner (4:06 PM)
I think the Steelers will find a way to get him signed. He is too important to their offense to let him go. Having said that, the Bengals and Ravens could go all out to sign Wallace, so Pittsburgh is really going to have to work at this to get it done.
Jordan (Toronto)
Do you see any teams targeting older WRs like Plaxico Burress/Terrell Owens/Randy Moss?
KC Joyner (4:07 PM)
Not early on they won't. There is a ton of WR talent in the FA pool and in the draft. That means going after aging talent at that position is not necessary.
Jason (Bmore)
As a Steelers fan, I wouldn't necessarily like to see Mike Wallace leave, but at the same time, I feel like he's the type of player that will never be much better than he is. He can dominate a game with the long ball, but he doesn't with the jumpball nor does he run the tough routes to get the first down.
KC Joyner (4:09 PM)
It seems a lot of Steelers fans are of the same mindset. Can't say I agree with that mindset, however. Wallace will be the topic of an ESPN Insider TFS article early next week, and I'll cover his situation in great detail.
Mikey (Lackawanna,NY)
Do you think Matt Kalil will turn out to be as good as Joe Thomas and Jake Long?
KC Joyner (4:10 PM)
It is very likely. To get an idea of just how physically talented Kalil is, know that he blocked something like 3 PATs/FGs last year.
Zach (Bronx, NY)
In Blindsided, you talk about Lawrence Taylor's (and Dwight Freeny's) ability to dominate games. For me, JJ Watt's game against Baltimore and Justin Smith's game against NY were the two DOMINANT performances of the season by a defender (even though their teams lost). I'm curious which defenders you watched this year, and said, holy cow, this defender is singlehandedly dominating the game.
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
Smith came close this year, but over the years there have really only been a few defensive players who stood out as having LT-like campaigns - Champ Bailey, Darrelle Revis, Dwight Freeney and Jason Taylor. That's four players of that caliber in nine seasons of breaking down tape. A rarity, in other words.
JB (Ohio)
Any chance the Patriots let Wes Welker hit the FA market?
KC Joyner (4:12 PM)
Very unlikely.
Neil (NYC)
You have to stop defending your ridiculous Wallace is better than Johnson assertion for so many reasons. But, why would the Steelers let the best wr in the game walk as he's entering his prime? what do they know that we dont (you specifically)?
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
If he does leave the Steelers, it won't be because Pittsburgh thinks he is anything less than a dominant talent. It would be because their current salary cap shape leaves them less room to be financially aggressive than some other teams.
KC Joyner (4:14 PM)
In other words, Pittsburgh isn't going to "let" Wallace leave. Someone is going to have to, pardon the pun, steal him away.
Matt (SD)
Do you think Mario Williams would sign with Denver? If he does how good can dumerville,miller,and supermario be together?
KC Joyner (4:15 PM)
Not sure that happens, but the idea of that type of pass rushing lineup brings back to mind some of the best pass rushing teams in history.
greg (stl)
which college player is testing out the best in your metrics that isn't regarded as highly as he should be?
KC Joyner (4:16 PM)
I've hit on a lot of those types of players in the breakout CFB players series. That series will be going over defensive players next week and will almost certainly include Texas CB Quandre Diggs and Oregon CB Terrance Mitchell.
John.C (Bethlaham Park)
What is your opinion on the Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick? Do you think he will be their long term QB?
KC Joyner (4:17 PM)
To use a scouting term, he's got a ceiling. It just isn't clear he can get this team to anything better than, say, 10 wins. Not sure that is the type of QB one wants to have as a long-term pilot.
John (Bethlaham Park)
Which of these FA WRS(assuming they are FAs)would be the best fit for Chan Gaileys(Bills) offense if they let Stevie Johnson walk? Dwayne Bowe/V.Jackson/M.Colston/Other?
KC Joyner (4:18 PM)
Colston. He's got elite size and has shown that he can also hit the vertical passes when asked to do so. Check out the TFS ESPN Insider article on FA WRs for more info - http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7573735/nfl-analyzing-elite-free-agent-wide-receivers.
Kev (NYC)
Is it too early to call Matt Ryan overrated? 0-3 in the playoffs...You don't get too many opportunities to prove your worth
KC Joyner (4:19 PM)
Before calling him overrated, I'd like to see him get a chance to run the same type of offense for more than one season (Atlanta went from a run-first to pass-first offense last year). Plus, let's not forget that he lost to the Giants in this year's playoffs, and no one was able to say they beat NY in this year's postseason.
Person (DC)
Foles is a 3-year starter who completed 67% of his passes in college. Is it crazy to think he'll end up better than Tannehill?
KC Joyner (4:20 PM)
The scouting eye says Foles wasn't quite as good as the completion rate would say. He's ahead of Tannehill at the moment, but that could change down the road.
Malcolm (Brooklyn)
Hi KC, Who do you see the Giants selecting at 32 in the draft and do you see them trading Osi in the offseason? And if so, for who?Thanks much.
KC Joyner (4:22 PM)
Assuming NY doesn't address their TE need in FA, getting either Dwayne Allen or Coby Fleener would be a great draft move (Fleener being the preferred TFS choice out of those two). Not sure about trading Osi, as the market for an aging, injured pass rusher may not be that great.
Sean McKenzie (Van Wert, OH)
I believe Joe Adams is a must draft for the Cleveland Browns. He has the deep speed we need, he has good hands coming into the NFL, he runs decent routes and doesnt "round off" his cuts or stops. Most importantly he can spell Cribbs in the return game so that Josh can work on the worst part of his game which is route-running. Your thoughts on Adams to Cleveland???
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
It would be a good move, but I'm not sure Adams brings quite the vertical skills Cleveland needs. In other words, he'd help but Cleveland would still need more help.
Aggie (TX)
Any chance you can put your GM hat on for the Cowboys? You have 20 mil in cap space for free agency.
KC Joyner (4:23 PM)
I'd want some secondary help, but FA may not offer as much in that area as the Cowboys need. It might be one of those FA periods where they go for depth rather than starter talent.
Kev (NYC)
Do you believe RG3 is overhyped due to Caw Newton's success in terms of similar styles? Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
I might have been of that mindset before breaking down RG3's season, but after doing that I'm convinced he can break Newton's rookie records if he ends up with the right team - http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7550006/why-robert-griffin-iii-beat-cam-newton-rookie-passing-record-nfl.
Brendan (boston)
Are the Seahawks a strong QB away from being threats in the NFC?
KC Joyner (4:25 PM)
Absolutely. Give the Hawks a top flight QB and they would have a team that make an NFC title run.
Matt Cole (San Diego)
Is Tim Tebow the real deal?
KC Joyner (4:26 PM)
As long as a team sets up the right kind of offense around him, Tebow is the real deal. He's not the next Peyton Manning but then again he shouldn't be asked to be that.
Chris (Seattle)
Who do you think will end up drafting RG3?
KC Joyner (4:27 PM)
Got Cleveland as the first choice, but got a gut feel Washington will make a strong run at trading up.
John (Wisc)
Packers signing of J Finley makes it more likely that they would tag Flynn to trade him. If they did this what kind of compensation would you expect in return?
KC Joyner (4:28 PM)
A first-round draft pick would seem to be a reasonable asking price for someone who has the potential to be a starting QB.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Have you analyzed Trent Richardson? Is he as physical of a runner as Adrian?
KC Joyner (4:29 PM)
Richardson had an 8.8 GBYPA if memory serves correct, which is a really good total except that the Eddie Lacy, his backup, had a double-digit GBYPA. Not saying anything bad about Richardson with those numbers but rather to say that the Alabama run blocking was really good. It shows what kind of damage he can do when given good blocking.
Person (DC)
who is the "right team" that may end up with him that Griffin can break the rookie records for?
KC Joyner (4:31 PM)
Washington could be a great place for him. If Mike Shanahan was willing to let Rex Grossman throw the ball vertically 171 times (as he let him do in Grossman's 13 starts last year), one can only imagine how often he would let a talent like RG3 do that. Also like RG3's chances in Cleveland if the Browns get some WR upgrades.
Mikey (Lackawanna,NY)
KC, Please I BEG you! Please do an article on the best pass rushers that will be coming out of Aprils draft! Mostly DE's! Thanks!
KC Joyner (4:32 PM)
I can promise this - I will run this idea past my editors.
Bryan (Maryland)
Isn't ILB a more important need than nose tackle for Pittsburgh? They don't have a clear replacement for Farrior and 3 consecutive first round picks on defensive lineman seems excessive to me. I feel like they need to be looking at a player like Burfict
KC Joyner (4:33 PM)
Burfict certainly has a disposition that would fit perfectly with the Pittsburgh style of defense. He needs to be a bit more disciplined but that type of thing can be coached into him.
Kev (NYC)
By all accounts Jermichael is overrated and the Packers have many weapons in the pass game...So why overpay for a TE that is suspect at best when it comes to pass-blocking, etc...?
KC Joyner (4:35 PM)
It's as noted at the end of the TFS article on Finley (http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7598208/nfl-why-jermichael-finley-overrated-tight-end). The Packers make a short-term investment in him that isn't up to the overall top dollar values at the tight end position. Not a bad move by Thompson and it opens up the franchise tag to be used on Flynn.
Andy (PA)
But Cam had Steve Smith catching the ball. If RGIII ends up in Washington, who is his best receiver?
KC Joyner (4:36 PM)
Right now it would be Moss, but free agency and the draft could change that. There is a ton of WR talent in both of those areas and Washington has ample cap space.
Prince Humperdick (wearing tights)
Begging KC? I swear it will be done!...isn't it going to be nearly imposible for the Texans to keep Mario with the high franchise number for DE? Who's the leader in the clubhouse to nab him?
KC Joyner (4:37 PM)
The Texans do have serious cap issues, but somehow I wouldn't count them out of the Mario sweepstakes just yet. That team in on the verge of possibly becoming the best club in the NFL and Mario may not want to leave that type of situation.
Matt (Virginia)
Lamichael James, If he stays healthy in an offense like denvers can he have the an Hall of Fame career?
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
He's good, but it's a big leap to say he'll be a Hall of Famer. How about meeting that halfway and saying he's got Pro Bowl starter potential?
Sam (Nashua, NH)
Better fit for the Patriots - Meachem or B Lloyd? Or someone else(Moss)????
KC Joyner (4:39 PM)
Of those 3, Lloyd is the best fit. Josh McDaniels knows how to get productivity out of Lloyd, which is something no other team has been able to do on a consistent basis.
Kev (NYC)
What kind of contract might Gronk be able to command now that Jermichael set the market? I'd imagine his agent could argue him to be paid as a top WR, let alone TE...
KC Joyner (4:41 PM)
Given the current tight end contracts out there, a four-year Gronkowski deal would have to draw in the neighborhood of $20-25 million guaranteed (if not more).
Andy (PA)
If Washington has to trade up to draft RGIII, I assume that they are giving up extra draft picks which limits their ability to a draft complimenting receiver. Not saying that I don't see Washington making that move, just saying that I don't think RGIII in Washington will be as primed for success as Cam Newton was in Carolina. The Redskins have too many holes, where the Panthers were a team that had many players coming back from injuries.
KC Joyner (4:42 PM)
It may be that Washington's approach will be to a) use a lot of that cap space to address some of their team needs via free agency and b) go all out to get a franchise-caliber QB in the draft. That could solve both sets of problems if done properly.
Bryan (Maryland)
When you break down Antonio Brown and look at his metrics, where does he rank amongst NFL wideouts? Could we be looking at a top 10 WR for the next 6-7 years assuming QB play remains consistent?
KC Joyner (4:43 PM)
His metrics were every bit as good, if not better, than Mike Wallace's. Only issue is that he's done it for less than one full season and for only one OC. Not sure I can put him as a top 10 WR until it becomes clear how Haley will work with this offense.
John (Bethlaham Park)
Do you think Robert Meachem will get alot of play on the FA market? Would he be worth it?
KC Joyner (4:44 PM)
His metrics over the years have shown a ton of upside potential, but the question has to be asked how much of that has to do with his playing in the NO offense? The upside potential will certainly draw some attention but in the deep WR field that is this year's FA pool, he might not draw as much interest as he would have in another season.
Zach (Bronx, NY)
Do you think Kareem Jackson can learn to get better or has he hit his ceiling?
KC Joyner (4:45 PM)
It would be hard for him to get much worse. He's still the weakest link in the Houston secondary.
Jerry (Arizona)
Did you ever see Neil Lomax play? What did you think?
KC Joyner (4:46 PM)
I saw him as a kid but have never had a chance to go back and watch his old tapes. Would be interesting to see how he would rate.
Brendan (boston)
How soon until the Giants DEs all want to get Peppers money? Is there anyway they keep them all?
KC Joyner (4:48 PM)
The Giants seem to have a talent for drafting and developing quality defensive linemen. If every DE on the team wants Peppers money, I have a lot of faith that Jerry Reese will be able to find a way to replace them.
Bryan (Maryland)
Follow up on Haley; Do you feel like his offensive philosophy will mesh well with what the Steelers have in place? Will we see the Arizona version of his O or the K.C. version? Seems that Arians just couldn't get them to consistently score points, yards were there but seemed stalled at times.
KC Joyner (4:49 PM)
The gut instinct is that the Steelers will want to get back to their roots of throwing the ball vertically to get an early lead and then using the ground game to win the game once they get ahead. Haley has shown he is quite willing to be aggressive in the passing game, so from that standpoint he fits with what Pittsburgh wants to do.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
If the Bucs cut Aqib Talib, how would you rank him with Grimes and Carr?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
Talib has been at or around the double-digit YPA level too many times. He would rank below Grimes and Carr.
Aggie (TX)
How many years until the Texas A&M football becomes relevant again?
KC Joyner (4:50 PM)
Let's put it this way - it might be a while before they win the SEC.
Person (DC)
do sacks go into your QB evalutions, and how much? the Lomax question triggered that since he got sacked 1 of every 10 dropbacks (a lot)
KC Joyner (4:51 PM)
They do in the sense that a QB should be able to avoid a lot of sacks (especially coverage sacks).
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Does Resean Mathis have anything left? I'd imagine the Broncos will look at him with Jack Del Rio as DC...
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Mathis actually had a pretty solid 2011 campaign. He'd be a short-term move for Denver but could provide some immediate help.
Kev (NYC)
There's no chance the Saints can keep Brees and Colston, right? Especially if they elect to keep Nicks...Has their championship window begun to close?
KC Joyner (4:52 PM)
Colston is good but let's not go overboard - NO has found ways to get his type of productivity out of other WRs. Keeping Brees and Nicks is more important than keeping Colston.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
Thought Matt Williamson made an interesting comment when asked bout VJax returning to CO...he said he's similar to Dem. thomas? Can Demaryius be that good?
KC Joyner (4:53 PM)
Absolutely. Thomas needs to refine his route-running skills but his physical skills are top of the line.
Jason (Bmore)
Wouldn't Washington be better suited to grab the best available player at their spot, draft a QB in the 2nd or 3rd, and let Rex run the offense for one more year? If they sell their soul once again for one player, it will be the same thing over and over.
KC Joyner (4:54 PM)
The Redskins aren't going to be consistent NFC East contenders until they get a top-flight QB. RG3 has that type of potential and is why Washington will likely make an all-out effort to move up in the draft.
Scott (Northglenn, CO)
So should the Steelers let 60 Minutes sign elsewhere, sign Manningham to replace him at a much cheaper rate, and use their 2 1st rounders to rebuild on D?
KC Joyner (4:55 PM)
That is an interesting take. Manningham isn't quite as good as Wallace on vertical routes, though, and his skill set may mimic Brown's too closely.
Aggie (TX)
As a Cowboys fan I feel Jerry will make one big splash in free agency. Of Mario and Nicks who should I hope for?
KC Joyner (4:56 PM)
Tough call. Probably Mario in that he could deliver the type of pass rush that wins championships.
Bryan (Maryland)
Will the Ravens offense improve next year or should we expect more of the same? Outside of Ray Rice they don't seem to have much. Torrey Smith can't run anything other than a 9 route or a slant and Boldin seems to have regressed a good deal. Does Flacco need more weapons for them to get over the hump?
KC Joyner (4:58 PM)
The answer could be as simple as sign Mike Wallace. He would upgrade the Ravens vertical pass game, take some coverage pressure off of Smith and make opposing defenses cover Boldin with lesser rated coverage players (which is a key to Boldin's success).
Person (DC)
Nowadays, no team's championship window is closed until their playoff window is closed, and the best organizations get to the playoffs fairly regularly.
KC Joyner (4:59 PM)
Let's put it this way - NO's championship window is open as long as Drew Brees keeps playing at his current level.
J.B. (PA)
This has been a great draft primer, KC. Looking forward to more of them right up to draft day. Have a great night, all, and I'll catch you back here next week.
KC Joyner (5:01 PM)
Might as well close out with a J.B. post. Couple of quick items before hitting the road. The TFS material is always posted on Twitter @KCJoynerTFS. Also want to mention that I did a interview segment with Samantha Steele on The Longhorn Network last night. I'll be posting a link to that interview on Twitter here in just a few moments. Hope to see you all here next week!
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